View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. You may not vote on this poll
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #8821
    Quote Originally Posted by Soxoffender View Post
    Fox is the Secretary of State for International Trade - he's charged with making post-Brexit deals (which could include opening up our markets to foreign businesses) and Hunt is the foreign secretary. These are not fringe nutters, they are cabinet nutters.

    Here's our old pal Dan Hannan on the Cato Institute's website writing a 'blueprint' for a future US/UK deal that includes allowing 'competition' between US firms and the NHS. Fox has said it's great and the ERG (which represents about 20 Tory MPs) has also backed it:
    https://www.cato.org/publications/wh...rs-perspective
    It may not come to pass but there are mainstream elements within the Tory party that absolutely want to dismantle the NHS, at a personal profit of course.

    As for NI - if the GFA is compromised or the UUP think they can start gaining ground on the DUP by claiming any Brexit agreement Foster signs off is weak and ratcheting up the sectarianism then things could change quickly.
    I am aware of who they are. It still does not change the fact that these people, regardless of what positions they may or not hold within government, are unable to privatise the NHS.

    I'm not sure why you've brought up The UUP apart from being a bit of a spent force they are Unionists.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ctd123 View Post
    We can wait for the autumn budget to see more but :

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/13078 - nhs reality

    not to mention no deal would gut the NHS of workers. (and in social care)

    as for the armed forces they are already a skeleton crew with a 20billion budget shortfall. Navy pruned 33%.

    Where do you think the revenue is going to come from in a shattered economy, and what do you think the first things cut are?
    The NHS, like many public services, is short of money. This is the reality of being in debt to the tune of 88% of our GDP and having to pay 8% of the UK tax take per annum on servicing that debt (which indecently is higher than defence spending).

    Why would no-deal gut the NHS of workers? Aside from the fact over 85% of the NHS's staff are British why would the UK not grant the right to work to the 5.6% of workers from the EU?

    The UK armed forces do not have a budget shortfall of £20billion. It has been reported that they could face a shortfall of £20billion from their £180billion budget for new equipment over the next decade, although many estimates put this closer to £4billion.

    How did the NHS and armed forces survive the global financial crisis?

    Are you going quote headlines or provide some actual evidence to back up your claim that the NHS and armed forces are going bye-bye post Brexit?

  2. #8822
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    I am aware of who they are. It still does not change the fact that these people, regardless of what positions they may or not hold within government, are unable to privatise the NHS.

    I'm not sure why you've brought up The UUP apart from being a bit of a spent force they are Unionists.
    You're saying that the government are unable to privatise the NHS? There's no unalterable covenant that stops it. It may not happen but it's certainly more likely than it was before the vote.

    I was talking about how the UUP could (potentially) try to gain back ground on Foster and the DUP if she accepts a Brexit deal. They 'might' call her soft and try to outflank her by pushing a harder line and a more strongly sectarian message.

    Northern Ireland voted to remain, it already has the highest levels of unemployment and poverty in the UK and can't afford to lose the €500M in EU subsidies it receives each year. If you don't think that's a potential recipe for disaster then I don't know what to tell you.

  3. #8823
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    any educated guess about where we are with brexit in 24h ?
    will they argue and negotiate all the night into thursday, if necessary ? or will EU put down the issue tomorrow and send Theresa home ?


    We can't wait to burn it to the ground !

    Last edited by ranzino; 2018-10-16 at 06:30 PM.

  4. #8824
    Quote Originally Posted by ranzino View Post
    any educated guess about where we are with brexit in 24h ?
    will they argue and negotiate all the night into thursday, if necessary ? or will EU put down the issue tomorrow and send Theresa home ?


    We can't wait to burn it to the ground !

    Same as were we are now. They cancelled the technical negotiators meeting on Monday, together with the preparation of the joint statement after the meeting tomorrow, so unless there is a major political surrender from one side or the other, which is unlikely, we will still be where we are right now.
    There will be arguments, but not much to negotiate.

  5. #8825
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demolitia View Post
    Same as were we are now. They cancelled the technical negotiators meeting on Monday, together with the preparation of the joint statement after the meeting tomorrow, so unless there is a major political surrender from one side or the other, which is unlikely, we will still be where we are right now.
    There will be arguments, but not much to negotiate.
    but that means "game over" in 24h, because we do not negotiate any longer after tomorrow; curtains down and off we go.

    the rest is silence

  6. #8826
    Quote Originally Posted by ranzino View Post
    but that means "game over" in 24h, because we do not negotiate any longer after tomorrow; curtains down and off we go.

    the rest is silence
    Well I've been surprised before. Trump is President and the UK voted for Brexit.
    What happened in the last two years is technical negotiators ironing out details on the easy stuff. The only thing that is a problem today is the Irish border, which was pretty much the only real issue back then, and absolutely no progress has been made there since day one.
    Your guess is as good as mine on whether a miracle will happen.

  7. #8827
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demolitia View Post
    Well I've been surprised before. Trump is President and the UK voted for Brexit.
    What happened in the last two years is technical negotiators ironing out details on the easy stuff. The only thing that is a problem today is the Irish border, which was pretty much the only real issue back then, and absolutely no progress has been made there since day one.
    Your guess is as good as mine on whether a miracle will happen.

    i wonder how PM May will act tomorrow: she cannot achieve anything and then return to London unscathed. her career ends tomorrow, not in march

  8. #8828
    Quote Originally Posted by ranzino View Post
    i wonder how PM May will act tomorrow: she cannot achieve anything and then return to London unscathed. her career ends tomorrow, not in march
    Council meetings and the following statement are always very much staged and prepared in advance. Usually nothing gets actually done there. Heads of states are not experts in any particular field so one should not expect any breakthrough usually. I guess if this particular meeting is her political death warrant, then the UK has weird expectations. Both the UK and the EU said as early as Sunday that the preparatory meetings did not go well, and we should not get a different message tomorrow.

  9. #8829
    Quote Originally Posted by Soxoffender View Post
    You're saying that the government are unable to privatise the NHS? There's no unalterable covenant that stops it. It may not happen but it's certainly more likely than it was before the vote.

    I was talking about how the UUP could (potentially) try to gain back ground on Foster and the DUP if she accepts a Brexit deal. They 'might' call her soft and try to outflank her by pushing a harder line and a more strongly sectarian message.

    Northern Ireland voted to remain, it already has the highest levels of unemployment and poverty in the UK and can't afford to lose the €500M in EU subsidies it receives each year. If you don't think that's a potential recipe for disaster then I don't know what to tell you.
    Yes, I am. What exactly makes you think it is more likely that the NHS would be privatised post Brexit? How does EU membership prevent the privatisation of health services?

    Regardless what might or might not happen with the UUP they are Unionists, like the DUP, they will not do anything that threatens to break up the union.

    The majority of what you have written is inaccurate, Northern Ireland's unemployment rate is 4.3% (compared to 6.1% in RoI) which is 0.3% higher than the UK average but the poverty rate in Northern Ireland of 19% is lower than England (21%) and Wales (24%) and the same as Scotland. The UK subsidies Northern Ireland to the tune of £6billion per annum and, as part of the UK, NI pays £374million (based on 2015 figures) into the EU which it gets £320million (mostly in CAP payments) in return.

  10. #8830
    Quote Originally Posted by Demolitia View Post
    Council meetings and the following statement are always very much staged and prepared in advance. Usually nothing gets actually done there. Heads of states are not experts in any particular field so one should not expect any breakthrough usually. I guess if this particular meeting is her political death warrant, then the UK has weird expectations. Both the UK and the EU said as early as Sunday that the preparatory meetings did not go well, and we should not get a different message tomorrow.
    Well, it's not that simple. Technical negotiators may be specialists in their fields, but they do not have the political mandate to actually decide anything. They can argue all night long, if the head of state comes along and says "Hmmm, I've changed my mind, let's do it!" then they'll do it. It's in her power to do a complete 180° at a moment's notice.

    Is it likely? Consideringi her stubborness and utter ignorance of how the EU operates, no. It's not likely at all. But she could. Absolutely.
    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
    PSA: Being a volunteer is no excuse to make a shite job of it.

  11. #8831
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    Quote Originally Posted by ranzino View Post
    i wonder how PM May will act tomorrow: she cannot achieve anything and then return to London unscathed. her career ends tomorrow, not in march
    It's hard to say really. Does anyone want her job? It's a disaster regardless of how you view it.

    There's no package May can present that has a chance in hell of passing a parliamentary vote.
    "The more the Republicans and Democrats play partisan politics with things as basic as confirming political appointees, passing budget deals and raising the debt ceiling the more dangerous the world becomes."

  12. #8832
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    Well, it's not that simple. Technical negotiators may be specialists in their fields, but they do not have the political mandate to actually decide anything. They can argue all night long, if the head of state comes along and says "Hmmm, I've changed my mind, let's do it!" then they'll do it. It's in her power to do a complete 180° at a moment's notice.

    Is it likely? Consideringi her stubborness and utter ignorance of how the EU operates, no. It's not likely at all. But she could. Absolutely.
    On this specific issue it's not that simple. One side has to say: "screw the RoI", "screw NI" or both agree on nothing, expect that there will be a border. Either way it is not trivial and technical negotiators have to come up with practical details and a way of putting this in legal words.

    What I meant is that if technical negotiators were called off, it is a clear signal to me that the EU does not expect any miracle tomorrow.

    I wouldn't call it stubbornness and ignorance. She is in a shitty situation where half of her party are either ignorant of how the EU operates or are out for themselves, either financially (JRM) or politically (BoJo the Clown and co). Then she trapped herself with the DUP coalition. She can't realistically sell or get through the commons ANY deal.

  13. #8833
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    .... It's in her power to do a complete 180° at a moment's notice.

    Is it likely? Considering her stubborness and utter ignorance of how the EU operates, no. It's not likely at all. But she could. Absolutely.
    but she has no mandate to do that 180 turn ? can she go rogue, sack DUP and call upon Corbyn etc. to back a soft deal ? she will have to step down afterwards of course, but she would save an orderly Brexit.
    or she is very brave and pulls the ultimate stunt and calls for a vote to exit from brexit, because nothing else would work

  14. #8834
    You don't listen. This is a historical moment. May can do whatever the hell she thinks is right. She can cave and surrender completely to the suggestions of the EU. That is her perogative as head of state. Negotiators being called off are a strong indication of what's going to happen, but they do not actually decide anything. They just prepare.

    It is stubbornness and ignorance. And I'll add a lack of spine to that as well. She should have realised from the beginning that this was a gordic knot and she should have told the British people that they fucked up and it could not be done, at least not the way they wanted it to be done. But instead she fell into the spineless habit of all British premiers and blamed the EU for everything. Her career dies tomorrow. And good riddance, too. She was too greedy for a PM job that she's clearly not qualified for. But how she enjoyed the spotlight.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by ranzino View Post
    but she has no mandate to do that 180 turn ? can she go rogue, sack DUP and call upon Corbyn etc. to back a soft deal ? she will have to step down afterwards of course, but she would save an orderly Brexit.
    or she is very brave and pulls the ultimate stunt and calls for a vote to exit from brexit, because nothing else would work
    Yes, sure she can. She's the premier, she can tell the DUP to fuck off and have a minority Government with the support of Corbyn. She can also agree to anything the EU says. Whether or not she'll get that through the commons is another issue, but it would buy them more time.

    I doubt that stork has the spine to call off Brexit. She'll cling to the post for as long as she can. I mean, I used to pity her, doing a shite job nobody else wanted. But she's shite at doing the shite job, too. When she said the EU disrespected her, she lost my respect.
    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
    PSA: Being a volunteer is no excuse to make a shite job of it.

  15. #8835
    theresa may is the least toxic tory 'leader' to the electorate.

    she'll stay until after march 2019, or there will be a GE.

    one of those two outcomes, and if she stays until march 2019 it's EFTA likely

  16. #8836
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    You don't listen. This is a historical moment. May can do whatever the hell she thinks is right. She can cave and surrender completely to the suggestions of the EU. That is her perogative as head of state. Negotiators being called off are a strong indication of what's going to happen, but they do not actually decide anything. They just prepare.

    It is stubbornness and ignorance. And I'll add a lack of spine to that as well. She should have realised from the beginning that this was a gordic knot and she should have told the British people that they fucked up and it could not be done, at least not the way they wanted it to be done. But instead she fell into the spineless habit of all British premiers and blamed the EU for everything. Her career dies tomorrow. And good riddance, too. She was too greedy for a PM job that she's clearly not qualified for. But how she enjoyed the spotlight.
    I'll assume this was for me.
    I do listen. Whatever deal she reaches is subject to parliament approval. She can't just decide to throw shit around and see if it sticks. That's not how politics work. Germany is so efficient because you have a system based on reasonable discussions and negotiations at every level before anything is ratified. May saying tomorrow that she has decided to change the constitution and make NI a province of the RoI will be met by the 10 dudes from the DUP blocking her vote.
    Before the snap election she might have gotten away with it. Now she doesn't have a majority. Her own party doesn't even agree on what they want.

    I'll be cynical and I've said this before, but I don't think she cares all that much. She became prime minister, the highest office she can get as a politician. She will say she tried and blame the dumbwits in her party for being unrealistic and move on to consulting, lobbying or just enjoy life on her PM pension. She know from the start she wouldn't come out as a saviour from this shitshow.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Floopa View Post
    theresa may is the least toxic tory 'leader' to the electorate.

    she'll stay until after march 2019, or there will be a GE.

    one of those two outcomes, and if she stays until march 2019 it's EFTA likely
    Nobody wants, or should, take over at this stage.

  17. #8837
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    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ure-trade-deal

    Theresa May has been told that it is up to her to deliver a “creative solution” to break the impasse that threatens to leave Wednesday’s “moment of truth” Brexit summit of EU leaders collapsing around her.

    Plans to outline a future trade deal during a leaders’ dinner on Wednesday night, a long-sought demand of Downing Street, have been scrapped. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, said the UK government had also failed to meet the conditions necessary for a special November Brexit summit to be called.

    Tusk delivered his ultimatum despite the fact that May appears to remain in an impossible political position at home and unable to deliver progress on the crucial issue of the Northern Ireland-only backstop.


    without a november summit to drag it out for additional weeks it is really "last PM standing" tomorrow. she will spill the beans or the EU 27 dinner (sorry, no seat for Theresa) kills any orderly brexit. EU will not break down on any red lines.

  18. #8838
    Quote Originally Posted by ranzino View Post
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ure-trade-deal

    Theresa May has been told that it is up to her to deliver a “creative solution” to break the impasse that threatens to leave Wednesday’s “moment of truth” Brexit summit of EU leaders collapsing around her.

    Plans to outline a future trade deal during a leaders’ dinner on Wednesday night, a long-sought demand of Downing Street, have been scrapped. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, said the UK government had also failed to meet the conditions necessary for a special November Brexit summit to be called.

    Tusk delivered his ultimatum despite the fact that May appears to remain in an impossible political position at home and unable to deliver progress on the crucial issue of the Northern Ireland-only backstop.


    without a november summit to drag it out for additional weeks it is really "last PM standing" tomorrow. she will spill the beans or the EU 27 dinner (sorry, no seat for Theresa) kills any orderly brexit. EU will not break down on any red lines.
    The EU won't break red lines, and neither will the UK. It might have been beneficial to accept that from the start instead of fucking around trying to agree on the impossible.

  19. #8839
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    geeez is there any reason left to rush to Brussels tomorrow for May ? i would call in sick and tell the tories to fuck off.

  20. #8840
    Quote Originally Posted by ranzino View Post
    geeez is there any reason left to rush to Brussels tomorrow for May ? i would call in sick and tell the tories to fuck off.
    I think the crux of the matter is the EU has pretended to play ball for so long hoping May would do just that. Because clearly Brussels won't budge.
    Now we can all go home, stop holding our breath, wish the UK good luck and finalize the preparations for the shitstorm that's coming. At least there will be some clarity.

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