View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. You may not vote on this poll
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #9061
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    I mean the trade issue was relatively easy for the EU. Ireland is the problem. If not for the Irish border the UK would have got a deal several months ago. But the EU is obligated to do what is best for all its members and Brexit is a catastrophe for the RoI (I dare say, an act of hostile indifference from the UK) so the EU will not budge on being the adult in the room about preserving the GFA and not breaking the economy in Ireland as a whole.
    So the Ireland issue was just not dealt with during the referendum? Neither side brought it up? People in Ireland voted on it not knowing how this would effect them?

    <BTW thank you for being patient with me and answering my questions. I've read a few articles about Brexit and the problems Great Britain is having, and mostly the articles assume the readers understand the underlying political realities.>

  2. #9062
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    So the Ireland issue was just not dealt with during the referendum? Neither side brought it up? People in Ireland voted on it not knowing how this would effect them?

    <BTW thank you for being patient with me and answering my questions. I've read a few articles about Brexit and the problems Great Britain is having, and mostly the articles assume the readers understand the underlying political realities.>
    The Irish issue was scarcely brought up in the referendum. The Leave side had no arguments other than "It won't be a problem". The Remain side underestimated it and honestly because they made their campaign about fear instead of hope, it was just washed away. Imo the Unionists probably wouldn't even mind for things to go badly, they thrive on that. Both the RoI and the EU as a whole did express their concerns but the EU generally did its best not to interfere with the referendum and UK sovereignty.
    But when the UK actually appeared at the table months after Article 50 was invoked (and completely unprepared leading to those fabulous images of Barnier showing up with paper upon paper and Davis going with just a small briefcase) it fast became apparent that there is no possible solution to the problem that does not keep NI in the Single Market (because no, even a Customs Union is not enough since there is an issue of services).
    Hail Lilith and see you in Hell!

  3. #9063
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    The Irish issue was scarcely brought up in the referendum. The Leave side had no arguments other than "It won't be a problem". The Remain side underestimated it and honestly because they made their campaign about fear instead of hope, it was just washed away. Imo the Unionists probably wouldn't even mind for things to go badly, they thrive on that. Both the RoI and the EU as a whole did express their concerns but the EU generally did its best not to interfere with the referendum and UK sovereignty.
    But when the UK actually appeared at the table months after Article 50 was invoked (and completely unprepared leading to those fabulous images of Barnier showing up with paper upon paper and Davis going with just a small briefcase) it fast became apparent that there is no possible solution to the problem that does not keep NI in the Single Market (because no, even a Customs Union is not enough since there is an issue of services).
    This makes sense. I've seen this behavior MANY times. People make decisions without considering the ramifications of issues that should quite obviously be an important factor to take into consideration. Then when the issue pops up, its like SURPRISE.

    This gives an explanation as to why May and others are acting the way they are. They are acting … clueless … not because of the trade issues, but because of the Ireland issue, and this cluelessness is partially because this is a really really difficult issue to figure out. And, it is not one that can just brushed aside. And, if I understand correctly, decisions have NOT been made as to how to deal with the Ireland issues. There are no good easy solutions, from what I can tell. Only the kind of decision that is easy for everyone else to make effective attack ads about.

  4. #9064
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    This makes sense. I've seen this behavior MANY times. People make decisions without considering the ramifications of issues that should quite obviously be an important factor to take into consideration. Then when the issue pops up, its like SURPRISE.

    This gives an explanation as to why May and others are acting the way they are. They are acting … clueless … not because of the trade issues, but because of the Ireland issue, and this cluelessness is partially because this is a really really difficult issue to figure out. And, it is not one that can just brushed aside. And, if I understand correctly, decisions have NOT been made as to how to deal with the Ireland issues. There are no good easy solutions, from what I can tell. Only the kind of decision that is easy for everyone else to make effective attack ads about.
    The EU solution is to move the border to ports on the UK mainland. With a bit of effort and investment it can be seamless and practically invisible to people in NI. If anything it would likely be a boon to the local economy since many companies in the mainland might try to relocate to NI to benefit from being inside the Single Market.
    But this hits many snags including:
    a) Scotland would go berserk if one province gets this choice and the others don't, especially when it grants that province a major competitive advantage in the national economy
    b) The DUP is May's minority partner and prioritizes the Union above the GFA. No border of any form (even if practically invisible) between NI and the rest of the UK is their red line, the GFA is something they want to preserve but not something they present as a red line.
    c) May is playing party politics and has put all her chips on her Chequers plan, attacking everything that could present an alternative to the parliament or even the people. This is why she attacked the case in the ECJ on whether the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50 (which would give her an option to stop Brexit), this is why she is against a referendum and this is why she is against a meaningful vote in Parliament beyond "Take my plan or get nothing". Her plan is so bad that the only way to sell it is to make the alternative the cliff of "No deal". The first part is extremely important because if the UK CAN unilaterally revoke Article 50, they would keep all special treatment while otherwise they would have to drop such treatment and possibly even make further concessions to rejoin. If the ECJ says yes and a referendum happens, Leave has no new argument while otherwise they can argue that staying without the rebate is not worth it.
    Hail Lilith and see you in Hell!

  5. #9065
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    The EU solution is to move the border to ports on the UK mainland. With a bit of effort and investment it can be seamless and practically invisible to people in NI. If anything it would likely be a boon to the local economy since many companies in the mainland might try to relocate to NI to benefit from being inside the Single Market.
    But this hits many snags including:
    a) Scotland would go berserk if one province gets this choice and the others don't, especially when it grants that province a major competitive advantage in the national economy
    b) The DUP is May's minority partner and prioritizes the Union above the GFA. No border of any form (even if practically invisible) between NI and the rest of the UK is their red line, the GFA is something they want to preserve but not something they present as a red line.
    c) May is playing party politics and has put all her chips on her Chequers plan, attacking everything that could present an alternative to the parliament or even the people. This is why she attacked the case in the ECJ on whether the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50 (which would give her an option to stop Brexit), this is why she is against a referendum and this is why she is against a meaningful vote in Parliament beyond "Take my plan or get nothing". Her plan is so bad that the only way to sell it is to make the alternative the cliff of "No deal". The first part is extremely important because if the UK CAN unilaterally revoke Article 50, they would keep all special treatment while otherwise they would have to drop such treatment and possibly even make further concessions to rejoin. If the ECJ says yes and a referendum happens, Leave has no new argument while otherwise they can argue that staying without the rebate is not worth it.

    A lot of things I have been reading make a lot more sense. Or... is a not less non-sensical! Most importantly, I feel I understand better the position that May is in. Not a very good place at all. And if things go badly for her, she could end up being thought of as a national disgrace.

    So she is doing her best at pushing her current agenda, while keeping other options open to her in case she needs them. And, she is basically fighting for survival. This also seems to explain Corbyn's absolute refusal to get involved. Now that I have some sense of what is going on there, well May won the election, so she is to be the one to get dragged through the mud. And everyone else, including the main leaders of Brexit in the first place and Corbyn, are telling her "I don't care what you do as long as you DON'T GET ANY MUD ON ME."

  6. #9066
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    A lot of things I have been reading make a lot more sense. Or... is a not less non-sensical! Most importantly, I feel I understand better the position that May is in. Not a very good place at all. And if things go badly for her, she could end up being thought of as a national disgrace.

    So she is doing her best at pushing her current agenda, while keeping other options open to her in case she needs them. And, she is basically fighting for survival. This also seems to explain Corbyn's absolute refusal to get involved. Now that I have some sense of what is going on there, well May won the election, so she is to be the one to get dragged through the mud. And everyone else, including the main leaders of Brexit in the first place and Corbyn, are telling her "I don't care what you do as long as you DON'T GET ANY MUD ON ME."
    The will of the people can always save you in politics. Giving people a proper referendum (one that has clear margin and participation rate requirements) and then acting on that mandate means there is much less political responsibility or cost. The same is not true for Cameron because:
    a) The referendum was ill-defined (no minimum participation, no required margin to form a mandate, no judicial ruling on whether its nature is binding or advisory before the fact)
    b) He poorly campaigned for the referendum and even more poorly conveyed the further and critical concessions the EU gave him just before the referendum (most notably, the power to opt out from further consolidation as long as they did not block it, something they had to fight for in the past with e.g. the Euro).
    Hail Lilith and see you in Hell!

  7. #9067
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    The will of the people can always save you in politics. Giving people a proper referendum (one that has clear margin and participation rate requirements) and then acting on that mandate means there is much less political responsibility or cost. The same is not true for Cameron because:
    a) The referendum was ill-defined (no minimum participation, no required margin to form a mandate, no judicial ruling on whether its nature is binding or advisory before the fact)
    b) He poorly campaigned for the referendum and even more poorly conveyed the further and critical concessions the EU gave him just before the referendum (most notably, the power to opt out from further consolidation as long as they did not block it, something they had to fight for in the past with e.g. the Euro).
    Well if there IS a second referendum, hopefully the details of both sides will be spelled out - or at least hinted at. Remain means this, Brexit means that, and there could conceivably be multiple Brexit scenarios. Creating a second referendum is a very non-trivial work project. Done poorly, a second referendum could make things a LOT worse for Great Britain. Done well, it could lead Great Britain to a fairly soft landing.

    "Doing it well", however, is not an easy task.

  8. #9068
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    Well if there IS a second referendum, hopefully the details of both sides will be spelled out - or at least hinted at. Remain means this, Brexit means that, and there could conceivably be multiple Brexit scenarios. Creating a second referendum is a very non-trivial work project. Done poorly, a second referendum could make things a LOT worse for Great Britain. Done well, it could lead Great Britain to a fairly soft landing.

    "Doing it well", however, is not an easy task.
    here is that thing.
    What is fair for a second referendum?
    My idea is one that allow for the voice of the people as a whole to be heard as much as possible.

    If it was up to me the referendum would be like this:

    Should the UK seek to revoke Article 50? (Yes/No)
    If the UK seeks to revoke Article 50, how soon should the issue of EU membership be revisited? (In 5 years, in 10 years, in 30 years)
    If the UK continues forth with Article 50, what would be your preferred alternative for our relations with the EU? (Norway Model, Customs Union, Canada Model with NI staying in the SM, Canada Model without the GFA, no deal)

    Ofc if you choose to revoke and you also choose to revist the issue in 5 years, the EU might as well say no. But this would allow for the voice of both sides to be heard regardless of who wins.
    Hail Lilith and see you in Hell!

  9. #9069
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    here is that thing.
    What is fair for a second referendum?
    My idea is one that allow for the voice of the people as a whole to be heard as much as possible.

    If it was up to me the referendum would be like this:

    Should the UK seek to revoke Article 50? (Yes/No)
    If the UK seeks to revoke Article 50, how soon should the issue of EU membership be revisited? (In 5 years, in 10 years, in 30 years)
    If the UK continues forth with Article 50, what would be your preferred alternative for our relations with the EU? (Norway Model, Customs Union, Canada Model with NI staying in the SM, Canada Model without the GFA, no deal)

    Ofc if you choose to revoke and you also choose to revist the issue in 5 years, the EU might as well say no. But this would allow for the voice of both sides to be heard regardless of who wins.
    From my limited knowledge of the situation over there, this sounds like a reasonable basis for a possible new referendum. The devil is in the details. I guess putting the details together would be May's responsibility. Although there is a good chance this will sink her, if she puts together a decent referendum, with well defined positions and rules (these percentages of the vote are needed to trigger these actions), and then follows through in a reasonable way, she could end up being the Heroine that Save Great Britain.

    She would also need to put some restrictions on false ads and negative advertising. If all of the sides just yell at each other, nothing good will happen period. Not for her, not for Great Britain.

  10. #9070
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    From my limited knowledge of the situation over there, this sounds like a reasonable basis for a possible new referendum. The devil is in the details. I guess putting the details together would be May's responsibility. Although there is a good chance this will sink her, if she puts together a decent referendum, with well defined positions and rules (these percentages of the vote are needed to trigger these actions), and then follows through in a reasonable way, she could end up being the Heroine that Save Great Britain.

    She would also need to put some restrictions on false ads and negative advertising. If all of the sides just yell at each other, nothing good will happen period. Not for her, not for Great Britain.
    The only referendum May would agree to right now is "Chequers or No Deal". Which is a waste of everyone's time.
    Hail Lilith and see you in Hell!

  11. #9071
    Herald of the Titans dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaira View Post
    There's already a shortage of the vaccination for the over 65's, each day I see more and more medications going out of stock from suppliers sadly most patients think we are to blame for poor stock control but if only they saw what we saw when ordering from a supplier it would break their hearts.
    In the same way poor people don't have to get a prescription for 50p paracetamol on and at cost to the NHS as many scroungers do though, why don't you just send them down to Boots or any supermarket where some are offering it privately with no shortages for just over a fiver?

    Talk of a flu jab shortage is just project fear scaremongering but if anything if our NHS wasn't overrun with millions of health tourists/refugees from the EU there would be no problem or supposed shortages at all.

    Hows that for compassionate and caring community advice from a friendly brexiteer?

  12. #9072
    Pit Lord
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    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    In the same way poor people don't have to get a prescription for 50p paracetamol on and at cost to the NHS as many scroungers do though, why don't you just send them down to Boots or any supermarket where some are offering it privately with no shortages for just over a fiver?

    Talk of a flu jab shortage is just project fear scaremongering but if anything if our NHS wasn't overrun with millions of health tourists/refugees from the EU there would be no problem or supposed shortages at all.

    Hows that for compassionate and caring community advice from a friendly brexiteer?

    Question, why do you keep arguing with people here?
    No matter what you say, or what they say, neither side will back down. Would it not just be easier for you to....I dunno....ignore the others? Seriously. People should just stop and wait until something actually happens.

    Right now, you and the others are basically just barking at each other while jack shit happens. I mean if substantial progress was made at least there would be something to talk about but nope. Nothing. The EU and the U.K have reached a stalemate and just can't seem to come to an agreement.

  13. #9073
    Pit Lord
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaira View Post
    Hopefully we might get another referendum which will allow the young who couldn’t vote 2 years ago to get their say as it’s them who will face the consequences of Brexit more than the idiots who fell for the lies to vote leave in the first place.
    Don't get me wrong, personally I think brexit is stupid too.
    Plenty of old people who vote won't ever really feel the consequences of what they voted for, while the younger population will have to live with it for the rest of their lifes. You can't just make another vote after something has already been voted on because "younger people can vote now", that would happen all the time.

    The voting system would have to be revamped, along with some laws. Something like once you're above 60+ your vote on national matters weigh less compared to those under 60. For example if you're under 60 your vote counts as 1, but if you're above 60 your vote counts as 0,7 or something like that? And on all other matters every vote is equal. But that would cause a whole set of other problems like people protesting for "equality" and etc

  14. #9074
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    A lot of things I have been reading make a lot more sense. Or... is a not less non-sensical! Most importantly, I feel I understand better the position that May is in. Not a very good place at all. And if things go badly for her, she could end up being thought of as a national disgrace.

    So she is doing her best at pushing her current agenda, while keeping other options open to her in case she needs them. And, she is basically fighting for survival. This also seems to explain Corbyn's absolute refusal to get involved. Now that I have some sense of what is going on there, well May won the election, so she is to be the one to get dragged through the mud. And everyone else, including the main leaders of Brexit in the first place and Corbyn, are telling her "I don't care what you do as long as you DON'T GET ANY MUD ON ME."
    It's worth remembering that when May stood for the Conservative leadership she had very little chance of winning and was a token Remained, in fact she never technically won the leadership race as everyone else just dropped out.

  15. #9075
    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    It's worth remembering that when May stood for the Conservative leadership she had very little chance of winning and was a token Remained, in fact she never technically won the leadership race as everyone else just dropped out.
    She won by default then. And noone sufficiently challenged her ever since, not when she sacrificed her majority in an idiotic gamble for the popular mandate with the GE and not when the EU kept sending her ministers back home because the dog kept eating their homework.
    Hail Lilith and see you in Hell!

  16. #9076
    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    It's worth remembering that when May stood for the Conservative leadership she had very little chance of winning and was a token Remained, in fact she never technically won the leadership race as everyone else just dropped out.
    That is not true. May was bookies favourite from the moment Gove announced his intention to run for the leadership and she won both the first and second ballots before Leadsome withdrew before the third; member's vote.
    Last edited by Pann; 2018-11-12 at 12:39 PM.

  17. #9077
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    They are acting … clueless … not because of the trade issues, but because of the Ireland issue, and this cluelessness is partially because this is a really really difficult issue to figure out.
    That is quite the understatement. It's not difficult to figure out, really. It's impossible. The UK's wish to implement hard borders around the UK towards the EU and control their borders directly is the direct opposite of their obligation in the GFA to maintain no border between the RoI and Northern Ireland.

    The EU hasn't even done anything at this point, yet. This is just what the UK has in its head. And then you have the EU step in and say, alright, you want out, but that means our outer border shifts to the RoI. Which means, there has to be a border, from both sides, between RoI and NI. And thus the GFA will be violated and the UK will have to deal with Troubles 2.0.

    Believe me, if there was a solution, someone would have suggested it by now. According to the EU timetable, we are at 12:00 right now. Every day delay means less room to somehow wriggle a last minute agreement out of anyone.
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  18. #9078
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    That is not true. May was bookies favourite from the moment Gove announced his intention to run for the leadership and she won both the first and second ballots before Leadsome withdrew before the third; member's vote.
    Yes, because Gove standing was a back-stabbing move which undermined Johnson, leading to both of them pulling out.

  19. #9079
    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    Yes, because Gove standing was a back-stabbing move which undermined Johnson, leading to both of them pulling out.
    Gove never pulled out, he polled third in both the first (ahead of Crabb and Fox) and second ballots and was therefore eliminated after the second.

  20. #9080
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    The numbers may not change but the overall quality will.
    I love it how you seamlessly move from conceding the point to a new fairy tale that comforts you.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    That is quite the understatement. It's not difficult to figure out, really. It's impossible. The UK's wish to implement hard borders around the UK towards the EU and control their borders directly is the direct opposite of their obligation in the GFA to maintain no border between the RoI and Northern Ireland.

    The EU hasn't even done anything at this point, yet. This is just what the UK has in its head. And then you have the EU step in and say, alright, you want out, but that means our outer border shifts to the RoI. Which means, there has to be a border, from both sides, between RoI and NI. And thus the GFA will be violated and the UK will have to deal with Troubles 2.0.

    Believe me, if there was a solution, someone would have suggested it by now. According to the EU timetable, we are at 12:00 right now. Every day delay means less room to somehow wriggle a last minute agreement out of anyone.
    I often wonder if they can seriously, honestly be this incompetent, or if they all know they're stuck between a rock and a hard place and are simply running out the clock while making vague excuses because that's all a life in politics has trained them to do.

    End of the day, either they'll reach a deal at the 11th hour (almost certainly an unpleasant one for the UK), or more likely default to hard Brexit because they couldn't get their shit together. But no matter what there will either be a border or there won't. Either the Brexiteers get the shaft or Ireland does.

    I don't know how it could be more clear, May gambled on a bigger majority in the election and lost everything, now she's dependent on the DUP that makes her incapable of negotiating Brexit because she can't push for an Irish border. Which only leaves the other option, which is to be in the EU in all but name, which infuriates the actual Brexiteers.

    If they want Brexit to mean Brexit, ironically the only path forward is to boot May and elect a government that will commit to an Irish border (either Tories with an increased majority or Labour). If anyone is willing to push that as a policy. But I'm guessing they aren't.

    GG no re, basically.
    Last edited by Mormolyce; 2018-11-12 at 03:00 PM.
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