[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Northern Goblin]

So wait, you can have a vote on a decision you made two years ago, that the public also voted on last year?

That's not what they've been telling the public during this shitshow.

[Pann]

So by all accounts she'd still be acting PM by the final date for negotiations. I would assume the idea by the ERG is that they replace her and go for No Deal?

No, I would have thought, assuming she loses, that it would be concluded by the beginning of January. As for the ERG I have absolutely no idea what they are playing at.

[Northern Goblin]

No, I would have thought, assuming she loses, that it would be concluded by the beginning of January. As for the ERG I have absolutely no idea what they are playing at.

They want to pull a no deal quick exit before the new EU laws regarding offshore tax dodging come into force, which will hit a few of their more prominent members quite significantly.

[Northern Goblin]

You mean the confidence vote on May or the People's vote? The People's vote has not happened yet but can happen if the government decides so and has broad parliamentary support. As for last year, the General Election was not about Brexit, was it? I mean if it was, what were the Remainers supposed to do, vote Lib Dems in an FPTP election system?

The general election last year was all about Brexit. It was the entire point of calling it, so the public could vote who they wanted handling the negotiations.

Also I switched from Labour to Lib Dem primarily for that reason.

Also the Conservatives picked her as leader two years ago, suddenly two years later they want to change their mind. Will of the people be damned and all.


Just enjoy the delicious irony of it all.

[Mormolyce]

I'm really not sure what this is going to achieve.

I predict she'll win with a comfortable majority.

Seems likely since none of the other numpties are interested in sticking their neck out. They'll piss and moan about Brexit but they won't put their ass on the line for it ahaha.

So yeah, all of this is pointless, Britain's fucked and nothing has changed in two years. May came up with a "deal" that's really just extending the transition period indefinitely, ie kicking the can down the road, and the Brexiteers won't vote for it but they also won't step up and offer any solutions.

Still just running out the clock until no deal. Unless they want to have another referendum - which if leave wins is utterly pointless as well.

[Gibblewink]

The ERG are probably just setting themselves up as the champions of the peoples' will and the true Brexit: "Look how courageously we challenged May even at the last hour in order to bring about the glorious Brexit that you, the people, so clearly wished two years ago. Alas we could not get the votes to secure it."

And then they get to sit on their back benches and rant without having any risk of being forced to take responsibility for anything unpleasant. Seat secured in the next GE - mission accomplished.

[Northern Goblin]

It was all about who could deliver Brexit, not about Brexit itself.

And the public voted with May getting the majority (albeit slender, and smaller than she went in with) in an election she made all about herself.

Now a handful of MPs are trying to change that into something no one voted for. While all the while moaning about how the deal isn't what people voted for.

And also attempting to overturn their own party's vote from 2 years ago, because they don't like the outcome. But tell people that because they don't like the result of another vote from two years ago, they can't have it again.


I'm not sure how you're not seeing the humour in this hypocrisy.

[Bakis]

So the one person that actually had a feasible plan is facing a vote of confidence.
She will lose it and then what, embrace a hard exit with open arms

[Mormolyce]

So wait, you can have a vote on a decision you made two years ago, that the public also voted on last year?

That's not what they've been telling the public during this shitshow.

Referendum was two years ago. Last year, May held an early election (in the UK system the House can call a snap election if a two-thirds majority of members support it) to try to expand her majority, thus putting her in a better position to negotiate Brexit. This hilariously backfired and instead she lost her majority, only clinging to power by forming a coalition with a Northern Ireland party, the DUP.

Now she's put forward a deal and the EU has signed off on it, basically it's a huge compromise where the transition period becomes semi-permanent, they stay in the EU in all but name and it becomes someone else's problem to sort it all out. Pleasing no-one. She needs Parliament to vote to support it but she called off the vote when it was clear they wouldn't.

So now there's probably going to be a vote of no confidence and nobody knows what the fuck is going on.

That's the short version.

- - - Updated - - -

May came up with a deal? You are being too kind, it's far more likely that Barnier handed her a deal.

I mean I think we're being kind calling it a plan at all.

[Pann]

You really think the Tories could get a new leadership they could all agree in that fast? The group backing Remain or observing that their constituencies want a deal, any deal, would not back a Brexiteer making a play for the leadership. If a Remainer would end up leading, they'd probably move to extend and move forward with the People's Vote. If anyone who wants a deal, they would also extend. All they'd do is anger the public that largely seems to just be tired of this.

Yes, I might have been a bit ambitious by saying the beginning of January but it won't take long. For example Cameron resigned on the 24th June and May took over on 11th July.

Given how unpredictable things have been up until this point I really don't think there is anyway to 2nd guess how things will go until we know who is going to put their name forward.

[dribbles]

No, I would have thought, assuming she loses, that it would be concluded by the beginning of January. As for the ERG I have absolutely no idea what they are playing at.

It is about destabilising her, more than she already is, so that they can run the clock out of time to achieve that managed or not no deal.

If she loses, unlikely, job done. If she wins, likely, the smaller the majority of that win the less authority she has for her hated EU deal.

And even if she wins it is likely a further no confidence vote will be tabled by Corbyn very shortly.

[Slant]

By the same token if they leave, the other half feels betrayed.

The UK just needs to get its shit together really.

From the EU's perspective, the advantage here is that it's no longer our problem.

[Northern Goblin]

Referendum was two years ago.

Wasn't the public vote I was referencing last year.

[Mormolyce]

Wasn't the public vote I was referencing last year.

I think you're thinking of the snap election there.

[Deleted]

Yes, I might have been a bit ambitious by saying the beginning of January but it won't take long. For example Cameron resigned on the 24th June and May took over on 11th July.

Given how unpredictable things have been up until this point I really don't think there is anyway to 2nd guess how things will go until we know who is going to put their name forward.

It took 3 weeks to change leader last time with little else going on and where all but 1 candidate withdrew before they even took a vote to their membership. In other words, it was extremely clean.

First off, it's now Christmas time, that will slow everything down and if the membership has to be included that almost certainly can't happen and till after the new year, logistically speaking.

If May loses, I'd be suprised if they were done with this until late January at the earliest.

At that point whoever is in charge needs to go to Brussels and organise a deal in 2 months, something May has been incabaple of doing in over 2 years.

[Northern Goblin]

I think you're thinking of the snap election there.

I was, and used it to parody this attempt at a leadership coup, saying that it means people who voted in the last GE for May to lead the Brexit negotiations would have their "will of the people" ignored as JRM and co would be giving them something other than what they voted for.

Basically every argument they've used to not have a people's vote, or second referendum, has been made to look total bollocks by this action today.

[Slant]

If May loses, I'd be suprised if they were done with this until late January at the earliest.

At that point whoever is in charge needs to go to Brussels and organise a deal in 2 months, something May has been incabaple of doing in over 2 years.

The EU will not renegotiate. Change in leadership or not. That's an internal issue, the deal stands and there will be no other deal. Just to clear that misconception up, because somehow people are still not believing the EU when they have nothing but repeated this mantra for the last 2 weeks.

[dribbles]

I just read if she loses there’s only 2 feasible options and that extend a50 or rescind brexit a hard brexit isn’t even on the table.

Also after reading that Kate whatsherfaces tweet and some of the comments they all seem out of touch with reality and need anti psychotic medicine.

Bad news for you I'm afraid, the will of the people was made the law of the land. We leave, by law, on 29th March 2019 and parliament has no time left to stop that - deal or no deal.

Can you see a deal in the pipeline? No me neither, perhaps Father Christmas will drop one down the chimney. If he does or doesn't we leave on that fixed date.

[Northern Goblin]

Bad news for you I'm afraid, the will of the people was made the law of the land. We leave, by law, on 29th March 2019 and parliament has no time left to stop that - deal or no deal.

Can you see a deal in the pipeline? No me neither, perhaps Father Christmas will drop one down the chimney. If he does or doesn't we leave on that fixed date.

Absolute rubbish. A50 can be rescinded

[Deleted]

The EU will not renegotiate. Change in leadership or not. That's an internal issue, the deal stands and there will be no other deal. Just to clear that misconception up, because somehow people are still not believing the EU when they have nothing but repeated this mantra for the last 2 weeks.

I was kind of describing what happens from the UK point of view... The EU may give up a few concessions but they will surely want something in exchange and, of course, they aren't going to change anything fundamental.

If May loses this vote there is 2 choices.
a) No deal Brexit
b) the UK rescinded A50 and becomes the laughing stock of world diplomacy.