[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[dribbles]

That's, quite simply, not true.

OK the majority of the electorate when put to the test at the last referendum, last general election, and again when the withdrawal act passed by majority into law in parliament. Three democratic tests won by leave to zero by remain. How much more conclusive than that do you want?

Do you have anything to back up your assertion, can you show that the £39bn you assume will be saved will not be offset by the economic hit of crashing out without a deal?

Can you show that it won't though? What about the economic benefits on top of the £39bn of being able to trade globally rather than being restricted by protectionist EU policies. With a 3-0 democratic win for leave it is not for the brexit side to prove anything but rather for remain to prove them wrong. They haven't, they can't and the won't.

It is no brexit that has the democratic deficit here, not no deal.

[Mekh]

OK the majority of the electorate when put to the test at the last referendum, last general election, and again when the withdrawal act passed by majority into law in parliament. Three democratic tests won by leave to zero by remain. How much more conclusive than that do you want?



Can you show that it won't though? What about the economic benefits on top of the £39bn of being able to trade globally rather than being restricted by protectionist EU policies. With a 3-0 democratic win for leave it is not for the brexit side to prove anything but rather for remain to prove them wrong. They haven't, they can't and the won't.

It is no brexit that has the democratic deficit here, not no deal.

Are you still gonna post when everything crashs and burns or are you disappear silently and cowardly into the night like your buddy @Dacien?

[Dhrizzle]

Can you show that it won't though?

As you're making the assertion I'm pretty sure it's up to you to back it up

What about the economic benefits on top of the £39bn of being able to trade globally rather than being restricted by protectionist EU policies. With a 3-0 democratic win for leave it is not for the brexit side to prove anything but rather for remain to prove them wrong. They haven't, they can't and the won't.

It is no brexit that has the democratic deficit here, not no deal.

We're talking about what will benefit the people as a whole, not the disaster capitalist hard-liners.

[dribbles]

Are you still gonna post when everything crashs and burns or are you disappear silently and cowardly into the night like your buddy @Dacien?

I dunno who you are talking about, sorry about that. FYI British people don't tend to have "buddies, it's mates or friends. A bit of a brief off topic non post relating to Brexit that, do you have a point buddy?

As you're making the assertion I'm pretty sure it's up to you to back it up

The information is all out there, but a bit in depth to post it here, you only have to look. Just one source...

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/12...wal-agreement/

And don't dismiss it too easily, John Redwood might be back once again at the top of government in a very short time...

[Mekh]

I dunno who you are talking about, sorry about that. FYI British people don't tend to have "buddies, it's mates or friends. A bit of a brief off topic non post relating to Brexit that, do you have a point buddy?

Just trying to ascertain, if there's a spine behind all that gloating, preening and trolling. I don't really care if your Brexit or your country fails utterly, I -and many others, I presume- just want to be there to rub your face in it, when it does.

[dribbles]

Just trying to ascertain, if there's a spine behind all that gloating, preening and trolling. I don't really care if your Brexit or your country fails utterly, I -and many others, I presume- just want to be there to rub your face in it, when it does.

Hold on a second I'll check for you.....yep def a spine there, anything else you need to know?

I must say it is a bit odd that you don't give a shit about brexit yet appear in a topic about one without, seemingly, any point.

Tell me, with respect, do you consider yourself a bit odd buddy?

[Nigel Tufnel]

OK the majority of the electorate when put to the test at the last referendum, last general election, and again when the withdrawal act passed by majority into law in parliament. Three democratic tests won by leave to zero by remain. How much more conclusive than that do you want?

You wrote:

Not paying the EU £39bn and further ongoing monies will provide benefits for all the UK population.

The majority of the UK population, as I, understand that and rejoice in a no deal.

Again, that is categorically untrue. Neither the initial referendum, the last general election or the withdrawal act were votes on whether or not the UK should leave the EU with or without a deal. You're doing yourself a disservice here.

And there I was thinking I might even support May's Deal in deference to the initial referendum vote....

Nope, it'll be a big slice of civil disobedience for me.

[Mormolyce]

Bad news for you I'm afraid, the will of the people was made the law of the land. We leave, by law, on 29th March 2019 and parliament has no time left to stop that - deal or no deal.

Mmmm, well if what you say is true then the Brexiteers in Parliament must be falling over each other to take May's job, right?

I mean, "no deal" is happening anyway, according to you it's all peaches and cream, so unseating May now means they can swan in at the 11th hour and take all the credit.

But... huh. They don't seem so keen to do that. I wonder why.

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Just trying to ascertain, if there's a spine behind all that gloating, preening and trolling. I don't really care if your Brexit or your country fails utterly, I -and many others, I presume- just want to be there to rub your face in it, when it does.

He'll just deny it as it happens.

The whole country could sink into the sea and the last thing you'd hear as dribbles went down would be "GOOD I WANTED TO SINK INTO THE SEA ANYWAY!".

[Mayhem]

The information is all out there, but a bit in depth to post it here, you only have to look. Just one source...

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/12...wal-agreement/

And don't dismiss it too easily, John Redwood might be back once again at the top of government in a very short time...

Trade friction on imports

Imports are two thirds of our EU trade

Mhm so?

Trucks arrive at Dover full of goods – about half of these make the return crossing to Calais empty

So half of the imports are turned into exports?

There is no need to place new inspections or complex customs arrangements on our borders in our ports, as we control these entrances to the UK.

That makes no sense. Controlling the border doesn't relief a country from customs arrangements. Without these, how are the UK going to check what's entering their country?

In the first instance, the UK can continue importing EU products as today, with an inspection regime at the factory or packing house of the originator, and inspection at the customer facility on arrival

Who's going to pay for this? How will this be checked?

If the UK does want more port inspection in due course, this can be introduced with sufficient capacity to avoid long extra delays

How? When?

Cross channel traffic by ferry or tunnel could have new inspections in transit on board the train or ferry

Cool, so there are going to be customs officers on every ferry and every train? When and how will they be appointed?

Exporters to the UK are not threatening to cancel supply on 30 March

Without legal framework they don't need to threaten anything, the contracts will be void.

Most have contractual obligations to continue supplying after 29 March which are legally enforceable. It is difficult to see why this should cause extra costs to the UK.

No, because the UK left all treates 29 march.

[Pann]

It is about destabilising her, more than she already is, so that they can run the clock out of time to achieve that managed or not no deal.

If she loses, unlikely, job done. If she wins, likely, the smaller the majority of that win the less authority she has for her hated EU deal.

And even if she wins it is likely a further no confidence vote will be tabled by Corbyn very shortly.

That plan sounds like something straight out of a Scooby Doo episode.

Trying to run the clock down is not going to change the fact that there is no majority in parliament for no-deal and even if the government tries to dodge putting it before parliament the Con party as a whole does not want no-deal.

If she loses and the ERG put one of their own in place again they face the problem that Cons and parliament will back no deal. If she wins then that's it for the ERG they cannot do anything to influence Brexit.

Just to add, if the rumours are true that May will conclusively beat the confidence challenge then it appears that the ERG have been manoeuvred into effectively gagging themselves for the remainder of the Brexit process.

[Acidbaron]

I wonder how they will blame the EU for either a no brexit scenario or no deal scenario?

"The EU was too mean to us by not letting us get our way!"

I expect May to survive tonight's vote.

[Independent voter]

Nobody is going to take that hot potato from May.

I predict they won't vote her out.

[Pann]

Public opinion of the potential Tory leaders should May lose tonight is far from favourable. Boris Johnson is the person who most people feel would make a good Prime Minister however even though he leads from Davis, Javid, Rudd, etc only 22% of respondents believe that he would be a good PM.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...may_successors

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174 Tory MPs have publicly said that they will support May in tonight's vote (she needs 158 to survive) but it is worth noting that there are reports of MPs saying that will support her in public whilst intending to vote in the other direction.

[Deleted]

Public opinion of the potential Tory leaders should May lose tonight is far from favourable. Boris Johnson is the person who most people feel would make a good Prime Minister however even though he leads from Davis, Javid, Rudd, etc only 22% of respondents believe that he would be a good PM.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...may_successors

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174 Tory MPs have publicly said that they will support May in tonight's vote (she needs 158 to survive) but it is worth noting that there are reports of MPs saying that will support her in public whilst intending to vote in the other direction.

A huge amount depends on what she says at the 1922 committee this evening.

She has said she won concessions from the EU over the last couple of days yet was completely unwilling to share any detail at PMQs (think about what that says about her priorities) and Merkel et al have said there will be no change to this deal.

It will also depend on her future as leader. If she doesn't promise to stand down before a general election, many will vote against her.

[dribbles]

174 Tory MPs have publicly said that they will support May in tonight's vote (she needs 158 to survive) but it is worth noting that there are reports of MPs saying that will support her in public whilst intending to vote in the other direction.

130 of those Tories are on Theresa May's payroll, to keep their jobs they don't really have a choice but to publicly support her. So so far 44 ish of their own free will support her. But what they say publicly and what they do privately in this secret ballot is another thing...

As to the ERG "gagging" themselves by calling this vote if they lose, that is far from the case. If Theresa May tomorrow, next week or next year tries to get her deal through parliament with a backstop she will lose thanks to the ERG and the DUP.

The more times she tries, the more time she wastes, the weaker she is and the stronger and more likely an outcome a no deal option gets.

Time flies, it very soon will be March...

[Kronik85]

174 Tory MPs have publicly said that they will support May in tonight's vote (she needs 158 to survive) but it is worth noting that there are reports of MPs saying that will support her in public whilst intending to vote in the other direction.

Monty Python did a skit on this leadership contest many years ago.



You might even want to apply it to either Brexit as a whole or the current state of our Parliament.

[Dhrizzle]

I dunno who you are talking about, sorry about that. FYI British people don't tend to have "buddies, it's mates or friends. A bit of a brief off topic non post relating to Brexit that, do you have a point buddy?



The information is all out there, but a bit in depth to post it here, you only have to look. Just one source...

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/12...wal-agreement/

And don't dismiss it too easily, John Redwood might be back once again at the top of government in a very short time...

Does he actually cite anything, or is he just writing his Christmas list? Is his hat in the ring for Conservative leader or is he yet another Brexiteer promising cake and unicorns whilst refusing to step into a position to deliver?

[Pann]

130 of those Tories are on Theresa May's payroll, to keep their jobs they don't really have a choice but to publicly support her. So so far 44 ish of their own free will support her. But what they say publicly and what they do privately in this secret ballot is another thing...

As to the ERG "gagging" themselves by calling this vote if they lose, that is far from the case. If Theresa May tomorrow, next week or next year tries to get her deal through parliament with a backstop she will lose thanks to the ERG and the DUP.

The more times she tries, the more time she wastes, the weaker she is and the stronger and more likely an outcome a no deal option gets.

Time flies, it very soon will be March...

The more obstructive the ERG are the more likely it is that it will end up with a straight choice between her deal or no Brexit.

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Monty Python did a skit on this leadership contest many years ago.



You might even want to apply it to either Brexit as a whole or the current state of our Parliament.

Hmm, to be honest I was warming to the idea of settling any potential Tory leadership battle via a duel at dawn in Hyde Park.

[Breccia]

You might even want to apply it to either Brexit as a whole or the current state of our Parliament.

"And Nigel has run himself over!"

[Pann]

A Yougov snap poll is showing that the majority of Britons want May to stay on and that no matter who is leader they do not believe that there is a better deal available.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...gn=may_to_stay