[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Demolitia]

Cameron CAUSED this mess.

Oh I know. But at least he was quick to realize what a blunder it was.

[Deleted]

dont worry lads they've made a tv show

[Nigel Tufnel]

I think we're talking at cross purposes. I'm talking about the current proposal that May has negotiated with the EU which parliament seems to awfully keen on voting down. The problem, for me, is that they have nothing once it is voted down so what difference does it make, apart from grandstanding and ego massaging, if it is voted down last week, tomorrow or in January?

If any of them have an alternative then great! Let's hear it. Until then it seems to me as if MPs are simply trying to shift all the blame for the mess that all of them have created onto May.

Hmms... once the deal is voted down the government has 21 days to put forward a new plan. If that is rejected the potential scenarios are: no deal Brexit, general election, referendum.

One of them is inevitable.

Which one?!

[Demolitia]

Hmms... once the deal is voted down the government has 21 days to put forward a new plan. If that is rejected the potential scenarios are: no deal Brexit, general election, referendum.

One of them is inevitable.

Which one?!

Looks like everybody is still cowardly focused on the position that will get them reelected. Calling a GE is risky, calling for a Referendum is risky, a no deal will hurt but can be blamed, again, on the EU down the line, so Dribbs might very well get his no deal after all.

[Deleted]

This is from the Government's guidance on Brexit and the CTA





https://www.gov.uk/government/public...no-brexit-deal

This is from the Irish Department of Foreign Affairs



https://www.dfa.ie/brexit/getting-ir...rexit-and-you/

Thank you for the information, I am surprised that provisionally everyone agrees business as normal even in a no deal situation in that regard, though its still not legally binding yet.

If i read the brief correctly then current shared visa rules would still apply? If that is the case how would that sit with brexiteers like dribbles who want absolute border control?

[Pann]

Hmms... once the deal is voted down the government has 21 days to put forward a new plan. If that is rejected the potential scenarios are: no deal Brexit, general election, referendum.

One of them is inevitable.

Which one?!

I'm not sure where you're getting that from, it appears that you are confusing a confidence motion in the government with the meaningful vote.

[Demolitia]

If i read the brief correctly then current shared visa rules would still apply? If that is the case how would that sit with brexiteers like dribbles who want absolute border control?

We have been asking him this for roughly 592 pages. It appears physical borders are ok, he just wants to ensure fishes stay in the sea but belong to the UK.

[Pann]

Thank you for the information, I am surprised that provisionally everyone agrees business as normal even in a no deal situation in that regard, though its still not legally binding yet.

If i read the brief correctly then current shared visa rules would still apply? If that is the case how would that sit with brexiteers like dribbles who want absolute border control?

I'm guessing that no-one wants to be the party that breaks the GFA.

I can't speak for dribbles but I think this whole Irish border and immigration control is a bit of a red herring and it is not physical border that is important rather than the controls and ability to enforce them. But it's not my argument to make so I guess if anyone needs further explanation they'll have to ask him.

- - - Updated - - -

Ooohhh... it's getting interesting (or tedious) - https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status...69015820742657

Or maybe not - https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status...72175788392448

Oh, we could be back on - https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status...72779843629057

[Deleted]

There is also the question, do you trust this guidance?

I trust the guidance. I am also pleased to see the EU officially left CTA for EIRE and UK to resolve. I worry that somebody will take the opportunity to use it as political capital. I also think when brexiteers realise chinese and indian citizens can get visas green lighted by EIRE but travel via UK(or vice versa) they will kick off about border control.

[Deleted]

I'm guessing that no-one wants to be the party that breaks the GFA.

I can't speak for dribbles but I think this whole Irish border and immigration control is a bit of a red herring and it is not physical border that is important rather than the controls and ability to enforce them. But it's not my argument to make so I guess if anyone needs further explanation they'll have to ask him.

- - - Updated - - -

Ooohhh... it's getting interesting (or tedious) - https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status...69015820742657

Or maybe not - https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status...72175788392448

Oh, we could be back on - https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status...72779843629057

So that's the Lib Dems, the Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru throwing there weight behind Labour as well?

[Deleted]

Just seen the video of May reacting to Corbyns motion, must have been taking advice from Cameron after all with how fast she scarpered out of the Commons.

[Pann]

It would appear that the government is not completely incompetent.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/u...n-after-brexit

[Deleted]

And then you'll see Labour tabling its own motion than be humiliated by a failed vote.

I'm wondering if this was the plan after all, those 4 have been pushing for a VoNC in the government for a week, and Corbyns been blocking it because he doesn't think he can win, this way if it doesn't win, Corbyn can save face by saying that he only wanted a VoNC in May not the government entire.

[Pann]

So that's the Lib Dems, the Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru throwing there weight behind Labour as well?

Nope, Labour have tabled a motion against the PM, which is for all intents and purposes useless, other parties are trying to get Labour to agree to a motion against the government.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I'm not sure where you're getting that from, it appears that you are confusing a confidence motion in the government with the meaningful vote.

Yes, I'm not spelling it out. I can do, but is it really necessary?

If May's deal is:

1) Rejected with no amendments Corbyn could not fail to put down a motion of no confidence. Result: general election (Labour campaign on referendum ticket) or no deal.
2) Rejected with amendments for a preferred route. Very unlikely. EU won't renegotiate. No consensus. EEA/EFTA? Least likely imo.
3) Passed with an amendment requiring approval through a referendum. Referendum!

With or without an extension to A50.

No?

So - it's no deal, general election or referendum!

May's deal will not pass.

Edit... I've deleted my own animated gif... it's making my eyes bleed.

[Pann]

Yes, I'm not spelling it out. I can do, but is it really necessary?

If May's deal is:

1) Rejected with no amendments Corbyn could not fail to put down a motion of no confidence. Result: general election (Labour campaign on referendum ticket) or no deal.
2) Rejected with amendments for a preferred route. Very unlikely. EU won't renegotiate. No consensus. EEA/EFTA? Least likely imo.
3) Passed with an amendment requiring approval through a referendum. Referendum!

With or without an extension to A50.

No?

So - it's no deal, general election or referendum!

May's deal will not pass.

Ah, ok gotcha. I was thinking of something else.

There is no guarantee that Labour could get the numbers to force a no confidence motion nor would I count on them coming out in support of a 2nd ref.

Both options 1 and 2 leave us back at square one as I said earlier. Option 3 imo as it stands today will be used to get May's deal through if parliament will not agree to it.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Ah, ok gotcha. I was thinking of something else.

There is no guarantee that Labour could get the numbers to force a no confidence motion nor would I count on them coming out in support of a 2nd ref.

Both options 1 and 2 leave us back at square one as I said earlier. Option 3 imo as it stands today will be used to get May's deal through if parliament will not agree to it.

lol delete the gif quickly before I'm infracted

THANK YOU!

[Dizzeeyooo]

nor would I count on them coming out in support of a 2nd ref

Labour party membership is solidly behind a second referendum based on virtually all available polling, so would be pretty stupid if Jeremy man of the people Corbyn decides to ignore that based on his own personal views

It would appear that the government is not completely incompetent

news sources outside the UK are pointing out that the UK was "invited" to remain a member of the CTC, so not sure how much credit you want to give pur Government for that

[Nigel Tufnel]

There is no guarantee that Labour could get the numbers to force a no confidence motion nor would I count on them coming out in support of a 2nd ref.

Yep, sure - in which case it's no deal.

Both options 1 and 2 leave us back at square one as I said earlier. Option 3 imo as it stands today will be used to get May's deal through if parliament will not agree to it.

Well, that's the thing isn't it - will playing down the clock pay off? Will the remainers, in the face of no deal, support her deal?

Either scenario we're staring down the barrel of one big, fuck off no deal gun.

When, actually, if Labour took up the mantle and championed remain on the basis that, among other things, Dominic Cuminmysnatch (mixing my realities) is, in fact, a completely evil cunt, and Remain is the only sensible thing to actually do. We might actually remain?

[Pann]

Yep, sure - in which case it's no deal.



Well, that's the thing isn't it - will playing down the clock pay off? Will the remainers, in the face of no deal, support her deal?

Either scenario we're staring down the barrel of one big, fuck off no deal gun.

When, actually, if Labour took up the mantle and championed remain on the basis that, among other things, Dominic Cuminmysnatch (mixing my realities) is, in fact, a completely evil cunt, and Remain is the only sensible thing to actually do. We might actually remain?

Honestly I don't see where we can go from here. It is as if parliament is so busy negotiating with itself, putting their own self interests first, that they have completely forgotten that there is another party involved and we will need their agreement in order to proceed. I find it simply incredible that our elected officials are fighting over when they get to reject the only plan that we have - it's like a whole other reality in Westminster.

I hope that we will have a clearer picture by the new year but at the moment I am so fed up with all of them.