[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Mayhem]

Who are you talking to?

Don't worry, it knows.

[dribbles]

Still lying, still ignoring facts. The ECJ has made it clear that we can quite happily cancel Article 50 unilaterally. I would have thought you would have loved that, we can make a decision without any reference to the EU. Now that's taking back control.

No-deal is never going to happen. And no amount of wishing on your part will make it so. There aren't enough genies in the world. Or unicorns.

No deal is the default position, no genies or unicorns required.

As for being able to quite happily cancel Article 50, that is not the case either.

The UK can only validly revoke its notification of its intention to leave if it has definitively decided to stay in the EU.

Do you see any signs at all that the UK has definitively changed its mind?

Hold on to your hats remainers, a no deal is virtually assured.

[Mayhem]

Why do you keep acting like anyone here cares if no deal brexit happens?

Because he thinks no deal brexit is the best that can happen to the UK and the worst that could happen to the EU.

[Huehuecoyotl]

No deal is the default position, no genies or unicorns required.

As for being able to quite happily cancel Article 50, that is not the case either.

The UK can only validly revoke its notification of its intention to leave if it has definitively decided to stay in the EU.

Do you see any signs at all that the UK has definitively changed its mind?

Hold on to your hats remainers, a no deal is virtually assured.

Changed its mind? You talk as if no-deal Brexit was ever supported. It wasn't talked about during the original referendum, because that was all focused on unicorns and "cake and eat it". The 52% certainly didn't vote for that. There is no majority for it in Parliament, not even close. The Tories could barely muster the 48 names to trigger the leadship vote, then barely got over a hundred in the vote itself. That probably represents the absolute upper limit of people that would vote for no-deal, if it came for it.

So your only chance for no-deal to happen is for Parliament to sit on its hands and do nothing, so that it happens by default. Maybe I'm being foolishly optimistic here, but I believe that when the point of no return is reached, MPs will actually stand up and do something to avoid that. And regardless of what the government position is, if they try and support no-deal as the only option they simply won't get enough support.

I'm so looking forward to the day your dream dies. I just hope you stick around long enough to admit you were wrong. I'm a lot less optimistic about that happening.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

I'm looking forward to May's deal being voted down, the no confidence vote failing, no-deal being put to a specific vote and also failing....leaving us with literally no way to enact Brexit. At that point it will be a straight decision for May; cancel Brexit entirely or go for a second referendum. Since the second referendum would need the other EU countries to agree (and there is no guarantee that they will, without concessions from us) because Article 50 would need to be extended, my prediction is cancellation. Then it will be a question of whether we have a second referendum or not, and if we do what goes on the question.

All of which should be pretty damaging to the supposed Tory reputation for being the competent party. This whole debacle has shown they couldn't organise a shag in a brothel (I thought I'd spare you the brewery comparison, considering your current state).

Yep, a referendum takes a minimum of 6 months from passing the act of parliament enabling the referendum to it actually taking place due to electoral commission rules. A Referendum before March 28 2019 would have to have been called before the end of October last year.

[Slant]

Yep, a referendum takes a minimum of 6 months from passing the act of parliament enabling the referendum to it actually taking place due to electoral commission rules. A Referendum before March 28 2019 would have to have been called before the end of October last year.

Erm, the minimum time is more like 4 weeks actually.

[Pann]

Erm, the minimum time is more like 4 weeks actually.

No, it is not, it will take around 12 weeks for the electoral commission to evaluate the question(s) being asked and there is a minimum 10 week campaign period required thus @Butler Log is correct that it will take approximately 6 months to organise another referendum.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

Erm, the minimum time is more like 4 weeks actually.

There is a 10 week minimum campaign period (as specified in the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act)

This blog from research fellows at the LSE goes over the basic time-frame for a referendum:

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/0...dum-on-brexit/

[Gigantique]

No, it is not, it will take around 12 weeks for the electoral commission to evaluate the question(s) being asked and there is a minimum 10 week campaign period required thus @Butler Log is correct that it will take approximately 6 months to organise another referendum.

Which then the EU has signalled it is willing to extend the deadline for. March 29th is not a set-in-stone no matter what date. If the UK decides to hold a referendum, it would be in the EUs best interest to delay Brexit for the results of said referendum to take place. If it ends in cancelled Brexit, so much the better. If it reinforces Leave, that doesn’t change much for the EU other than another 2-3 months later than planned.

[Pann]

Which then the EU has signalled it is willing to extend the deadline for. March 29th is not a set-in-stone no matter what date. If the UK decides to hold a referendum, it would be in the EUs best interest to delay Brexit for the results of said referendum to take place. If it ends in cancelled Brexit, so much the better. If it reinforces Leave, that doesn’t change much for the EU other than another 2-3 months later than planned.

The problem with this is that the Withdrawal Act states that EU treaties cease to apply from March 29th and it would not be an easy task to amend this in the time available.

And then, of course, there is the issue that no-one is seriously putting forward the idea of a 2nd referendum.

[Huehuecoyotl]

And then, of course, there is the issue that no-one is seriously putting forward the idea of a 2nd referendum.

Really? I must have missed the dozens of senior political figures suggesting it. Probably hundreds of press articles talking about it, and the polls that suggest that the majority of the population actually support it now. Where in all that is a lack of seriousness? Especially bearing in mind the political farce playing out at the moment, and the potential damage of no-deal.

I would suggest that a second referendum is actually one of the grown-up options for what happens next.

[dribbles]

Changed its mind? You talk as if no-deal Brexit was ever supported. It wasn't talked about during the original referendum, because that was all focused on unicorns and "cake and eat it". The 52% certainly didn't vote for that. There is no majority for it in Parliament, not even close. The Tories could barely muster the 48 names to trigger the leadship vote, then barely got over a hundred in the vote itself. That probably represents the absolute upper limit of people that would vote for no-deal, if it came for it.

So your only chance for no-deal to happen is for Parliament to sit on its hands and do nothing, so that it happens by default. Maybe I'm being foolishly optimistic here, but I believe that when the point of no return is reached, MPs will actually stand up and do something to avoid that. And regardless of what the government position is, if they try and support no-deal as the only option they simply won't get enough support.

I'm so looking forward to the day your dream dies. I just hope you stick around long enough to admit you were wrong. I'm a lot less optimistic about that happening.

No deal doesn't require a vote though. It is a done deal, with parliamentary majority btw, already should an acceptable alternative not be found. Can you see the EU offering cake and cherries in order for a deal passed through parliament to happen? I am optimistic that they won't and that is how I get my no deal. It doesn't require the UK MP's to do nothing, though that helps, it requires the EU to offer nothing further. Of this I think we are assured.

I'm here for the duration, you can only be optimistic of that

[Pann]

Really? I must have missed the dozens of senior political figures suggesting it. Probably hundreds of press articles talking about it, and the polls that suggest that the majority of the population actually support it now. Where in all that is a lack of seriousness? Especially bearing in mind the political farce playing out at the moment, and the potential damage of no-deal.

I would suggest that a second referendum is actually one of the grown-up options for what happens next.

Who in parliament that has the political clout to do anything about it has put forward the idea of a second referendum?

[Gigantique]

The problem with this is that the Withdrawal Act states that EU treaties cease to apply from March 29th and it would not be an easy task to amend this in the time available.

And then, of course, there is the issue that no-one is seriously putting forward the idea of a 2nd referendum.

It’s definitely a complete clusterfuck without a shred of the time necessary to do things properly, however most (if not all) of it is on the domestic UK-side. As far as I know the EU has its «what-if-no-deal» arrangements in a far better spot than the UK, and is just waiting for you to sort yourselves out and come to agreement. And if the threat of no-deal looms ahead and scares your politicians shitless, I want to say, without knowing your politicians in the slightest, that time could be cut «for the good of the country».

This Withdrawal Act, is that an internal/domestic legislation within the UK or between the UK and EU? If it’s entirely domestic, your legislators could probably speed things up if necessary, I know Norway has those options available if something is necessary and «obvious» to benefit the nation.

I’d say it all boils down to the public opinion. If we reach Feb 28th and the reality of a hard no-deal-crashout finally rips people out of their Brexiteer-induced warped sense of reality, they’ll just cheer their politicians on for being so courageous as to get shit done to save the country.

If not the politicians will be too scared to make the move, and well, godspeed I guess.

But as our favourite Brexiteer keeps saying; Tick Tock (But for Britain, I’m pretty sure the EU is just sitting about waiting)

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

This Withdrawal Act, is that an internal/domestic legislation within the UK or between the UK and EU? If it’s entirely domestic, your legislators could probably speed things up if necessary, I know Norway has those options available if something is necessary and «obvious» to benefit the nation.

Domestic law. Nothing to do with the EU.

Really? I must have missed the dozens of senior political figures suggesting it. Probably hundreds of press articles talking about it, and the polls that suggest that the majority of the population actually support it now. Where in all that is a lack of seriousness? Especially bearing in mind the political farce playing out at the moment, and the potential damage of no-deal.

I would suggest that a second referendum is actually one of the grown-up options for what happens next.

No, the UK asked for a roast chicken and salad sandwich, has been given one containing shit instead, and must now eat the sandwich, even though they don't want one that tastes of shit. Because that is what was decided. There is no way to prevent the nation from eating a shit sandwich, even though they originally asked for chicken salad.

At least, that's what brexiters and Theresa May are saying.

"No deal" was never mentioned as an option in the lead-up to the referendum.

[Dhrizzle]

A picture without a source for me to rummage through is worth as much as much as a clogged nostril bud, even more so when it’s produced by «Brexit Facts4eu.org».

And putting your hyperbolic nonsense about swimming aside again, she enjoys Primark, who am I to question her weird Icelandic notions? I’ll go there to see the sights, Westminster, Tower etc, and be her mule for shopping day, although I think Oxford Street is on the agenda as well. And coming from a «rich country» like Norway to shop in England is for two simple reasons; Clothes are dirt-cheap in England compared to Norway, and I think we both tend to find more clothing to our taste there. More swag for your buck!

Oh, and the Harry Potter museum. Gotta try to see what we can before your country turns scary!

Good news! If the Primark you visit is anything like mine (Manchester) it should have a sizable Harry Potter section.

[Pann]

It’s definitely a complete clusterfuck without a shred of the time necessary to do things properly, however most (if not all) of it is on the domestic UK-side. As far as I know the EU has its «what-if-no-deal» arrangements in a far better spot than the UK, and is just waiting for you to sort yourselves out and come to agreement. And if the threat of no-deal looms ahead and scares your politicians shitless, I want to say, without knowing your politicians in the slightest, that time could be cut «for the good of the country».

This Withdrawal Act, is that an internal/domestic legislation within the UK or between the UK and EU? If it’s entirely domestic, your legislators could probably speed things up if necessary, I know Norway has those options available if something is necessary and «obvious» to benefit the nation.

I’d say it all boils down to the public opinion. If we reach Feb 28th and the reality of a hard no-deal-crashout finally rips people out of their Brexiteer-induced warped sense of reality, they’ll just cheer their politicians on for being so courageous as to get shit done to save the country.

If not the politicians will be too scared to make the move, and well, godspeed I guess.

But as our favourite Brexiteer keeps saying; Tick Tock (But for Britain, I’m pretty sure the EU is just sitting about waiting)

To be honest the extent of UK no-deal planning is not public knowledge as much of it is covered by NDAs, whether this is disguise that it is woefully inadequate remains to be seen.

The Withdrawal Act is UK legislation however it is what is known as primary legislation which if it is to be altered has to follow lengthy processes with scrutiny and votes in the Commons and Lords. There are options to speed these processes up or avoid them entirely but it is not clear (to me at least) whether it would be appropriate to use these powers in this situation or if there is any sort of motivation in the House to do so.

I think you're correct that if there was a large and measurable shift in public opinion towards remain then the politicians will react to it however, if the last two years are anything to go by, it doesn't look like that will happen.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

Good news! If the Primark you visit is anything like mine (Manchester) it should have a sizable Harry Potter section.

There are Primarks in Germany, although it could be cheaper to fly to London to buy clothes than to drive into town after Brexit

[Dhrizzle]

Why do you keep acting like anyone here cares if no deal brexit happens?

Dribbs is either one of the privileged few who can make a profit from Brexit or he has his tongue so far up the arse of wealthy elites like Mogg and Farage he doesn't care what happens to the country as long as they are happy.

[Huehuecoyotl]

To be honest the extent of UK no-deal planning is not public knowledge as much of it is covered by NDAs, whether this is disguise that it is woefully inadequate remains to be seen.

We do know that as part of their planning they have taken out a multi-million pound deal to provide additional ferry transport. With a company that was only set up a few years ago. That has no ferries.

I'm going to go ahead and guess "woefully inadequate". Final answer.