[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

This is why you should never do a referendum. Your average pleb doesn't know how treaties, deals or economics work. Giving them a say in the matter will always end up stupid. Especially when it's proven in court one side has cheated to the point that courts have stated if the vote was meaningful in law it would have been thrown away.

At this point all we're seemingly going with is "WE must appease the far right or the far right will rise." when it comes to brexit now.

Yeah, and the average "pleb" sees "a billion pounds" and thinks "that's like all the money in the world", when it is pocket change when you compare it to, say, the entire economy. Very easy to scare people by talking about large sums of money that they can't really comprehend. Like that 350M per week that is supposed to be going to the NHS (it won't) would only increase the NHS budget by about 15% (comparable to about three years of Tory austerity cuts).

[Pann]

But lots of people are saying, you included (for example in that post I quoted), that because the UK is leaving the EU, the UK must also leave the CU. This is false. Leaving the EU means leaving the Single Market (because the UK does not want to accept freedom of settlement and employment), but it definitely does not inevitably entail leaving the CU.

No, I am not. The UK has chosen, rightly or wrongly, that by leaving the EU it will be able to set its own tariffs and negotiate and sign its own FTAs which it could not do as a member of the customs union.

[Kiri]

This is why you should never do a referendum. Your average pleb doesn't know how treaties, deals or economics work. Giving them a say in the matter will always end up stupid. Especially when it's proven in court one side has cheated to the point that courts have stated if the vote was meaningful in law it would have been thrown away.

At this point all we're seemingly going with is "WE must appease the far right or the far right will rise." when it comes to brexit now.

It's almost like a better system might be to, instead of letting a bunch of half-informed people without a real grasp on the issue, one should instead choose, say, representatives. People who grasp the sensibilities of those they represent, but who can fully concentrate on informing themselves on the issue and make the best decision based on that. A novel concept, but it might just work.
Well, at least unless you restrict the realistic choice of representatives to basically two factions, so those voted in only have to kind of care about the sensibilities of their voters and sports-team-like considerations take priority.

[zealo]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1PE0W0

So May is now going directly after the GFA. I mean I think this was inevitable. The only way to do Brexit will be to find a way to amend the GFA but there is absolutely no mandate for that and it cannot be done on a moment's notice.
Imo if the UK really wants Brexit, the best solution would be a longer transition period were the UK would act as an EFTA member while negotiating with NI and the RoI a new GFA that would allow for them to erect a border.

Wouldn't that sort of thing require there to actually be a government assembled in northern Ireland?

[Shalcker]

It would indeed. But I am not discussing what May is trying to do which is eleventh hour idiocy (this is NOT something she can try to negotiate with a three month horizon as if it was an afterthought and it is insulting if she thinks she can) but what can be done to allow Brexit to actually happen. For some reason noone wanted to go there but it was clear that if the UK wants to do a proper Brexit then they shouldn't be trying to negotiate with the EU over a transition, they should be trying to negotiate with the RoI and NI (and most importantly with the people of NI) over the GFA. Problem is the Brexit camp is still hanging on imaginary solutions (like the Managed No Deal nonsense).

I don't think anyone, EU included, wants to see totally "Unmanaged" No-Deal - that is, cutting everything Day 1 until everything is decided again.

Certainly if No-Deal happens, it will have to be managed on ad-hoc basis (given that there will be no overarching "deal" to decide everything).

[Slant]

So the GFA it is. Finally the question I kept answering is answered... and something will break, it is the only way to make a substantial alteration to the whole equation so that Brexit is even theoretically possible.

Not bad, Ms. May. Should've done that 2 years ago, but this can be salvaged... well, salvaged back into the 80s anyway.

[Slant]

I cannot even laugh at this tbh. Only now, with a few months left, she decided to discuss the issue with NI. I guess when you have always assumed you could just do with them whatever you want, having to ask is probably seen as onerous and expecting a negotiation that would probably take even longer than the one with the EU to just work out for you in three short months is the height of arrogance.

The British have never understood that their colonials are humans with their own wishes, too. And now the UK has not one negotiation to fail, but two at the same time. But trade agreements are so easy, they'll do 40 of them at a time...

[Acidbaron]

It is simply a play to find a national located scapegoat to put the spot light of them when things go wrong. Seeing EU will no longer remain a relevant scapegoat, NI seems like a good new one.

[Slant]

It is simply a play to find a national located scapegoat to put the spot light of them when things go wrong. Seeing EU will no longer remain a relevant scapegoat, NI seems like a good new one.

I'm good with that. It's their country, they can fuck it up however they see fit.

[dribbles]

Unsurprisingly eurochums I agree with the Mogg when he said this morning :-

“I think if you were to rank them the most likely is no deal, the second most likely is a redone deal, third is a delay, and fourth a long way behind is not leaving at all”.

I'm going to do it, and simply have to say it. Told you so!

67 days until freedom, tick tock...

[Floopa]

https://twitter.com/adamfleming/stat...20272003366917

watching the dominoes fall 1 by 1. EU nations are suddenly realising just how much they benefit from UK money, so now they're rebelling in order to secure the £39B payout that we - in the event of no deal - will not pay.

[Kiri]

Unsurprisingly eurochums I agree with the Mogg when he said this morning :-

“I think if you were to rank them the most likely is no deal, the second most likely is a redone deal, third is a delay, and fourth a long way behind is not leaving at all”.

I'm going to do it, and simply have to say it. Told you so!

67 days until freedom, tick tock...

Told us so regarding what, exactly?
That R-M would rank remain the least likely and no deal the most likely? That's bears pooping in the woods levels of 'told you so'.
Or that you would agree with him on that? Because that is the sun rising in the east levels.

I mean, it is unsurprising in its entirety, so what is the point in saying "told you so"?

[lothwothe]

Unsurprisingly eurochums I agree with the Mogg when he said this morning :-

“I think if you were to rank them the most likely is no deal, the second most likely is a redone deal, third is a delay, and fourth a long way behind is not leaving at all”.

I'm going to do it, and simply have to say it. Told you so!

67 days until freedom, tick tock...

Er....you know Moggies vision of the future is one where Britain is flooded with charming brown people from our commonwealth partners....

I'm not sure how that is going to go down with your typical brexiteer.

[Dizzeeyooo]

watching the dominoes fall 1 by 1. EU nations are suddenly realising just how much they benefit from UK money, so now they're rebelling in order to secure the £39B payout that we - in the event of no deal - will not pay.

Presumably since the Polish Government is so popular within the EU currently, they will easily be able to encourage 25 other countries to ditch Ireland and support this idiotic idea Also not sure suddenly is the right word, they have been pushing this idea since December, with no movement from anyone else yet.

And yes, the £39 billion is pleb change and a non issue, but

Yeah, and the average "pleb" sees "a billion pounds" and thinks "that's like all the money in the world", when it is pocket change when you compare it to, say, the entire economy. Very easy to scare people by talking about large sums of money that they can't really comprehend. Like that 350M per week that is supposed to be going to the NHS (it won't) would only increase the NHS budget by about 15% (comparable to about three years of Tory austerity cuts).

said that better than I ever could. People that mention the money at this point are either idiots or knowingly trying to stir up idiots by lying - which one are you Floopa?

Edit - Irish response was expected but still amusing

[Adapter]

https://twitter.com/adamfleming/stat...20272003366917

watching the dominoes fall 1 by 1. EU nations are suddenly realising just how much they benefit from UK money, so now they're rebelling in order to secure the £39B payout that we - in the event of no deal - will not pay.

This has nothing to do with UK money.
Poland has A LOT of workers in the UK (like a million?) and their current government has been supporting UK over the brexit thing for a few years now. They want to get work visas/permits for them after you guys leave.

[Gibblewink]

Interesting point about those 39 billion pounds: In the eyes of the EU those money are owed due to commitments made during the last budget, and it is quite possible they will just get brought back up as a requirement for a UK-EU trade deal. Not that it much matters in the sense of the budget but some people do like to keep things tidy.

[Acidbaron]

The irony of those proposing they have more funds and influence outside the EU, while in the same breath proposing something as a Norway plus option.

People really don't know much about the EU do they?

[Blur4stuff]

I hate watching someone stab themselves over and over, but I guess I'm used to it since I'm american.

[Pann]

Rather unsurprisingly plan B has turned out to be pretty much the same as plan A.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46944059

But on a slightly more positive note the £65 fee for EU citizens to register for settled status has been scrapped.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46950719

[Slant]

https://twitter.com/adamfleming/stat...20272003366917

watching the dominoes fall 1 by 1. EU nations are suddenly realising just how much they benefit from UK money, so now they're rebelling in order to secure the £39B payout that we - in the event of no deal - will not pay.

Member states proposing changes for the EU implement is how the decision making process in a democratic institution works. You should try it! Democracy, that is. None of this means any "dominoes" are falling or that member states are rebelling.