[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Demolitia]

Yeah, I did mean a new CU but I should have been clearer on that one.

I don't think "a" cherry picked customs union will fly for a transition period though. I don't see how that's practical. Why would you go for a CU on certain goods now and be on WTO terms for everything else?

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That depends on whether you believe a model that is mostly used by tiny nations with tiny populations will work for nation of 66 million people. Again, not an economist but happy to read anything you want to present that makes a good case for it.

The odd thing about the WA is that it does exactly what Brexiteers want yet they won't vote for it because of the backstop which is an insurance measure, not an explicit part of the deal but an emergency button nobody is meant to want to use. I guess all it does is imply the inherent bad faith of Brexiteers.

Compared to the US, Russia, the EU, China and South American alliances, on your own you'll be pretty small. That being said I was mostly kidding.

About the backstop. It is not an emergency button anymore. It is fairly obvious it can't be avoided. Nobody has come up with an alternative to it, and I doubt anybody will.

[Pann]

I don't think "a" cherry picked customs union will fly for a transition period though. I don't see how that's practical. Why would you go for a CU on certain goods now and be on WTO terms for everything else?

I would guess that the idea would be place tariff on goods that we produce and want to protect whilst lowering those on goods we do not produce. For example oranges are currently protected by EU tariffs and a minimum import price however as the UK does not have a suitable climate to produce oranges it could, in theory, remove these barriers and reduce prices for consumers.

I honestly don't know if there are enough products protected by EU tariffs that are not produced within the UK to make this worthwhile but then again I think being in a CU is bad idea.

Blue passports and 3p off an orange! I mean what's not to love about Brexit?!?

[Kronik85]

About the backstop. It is not an emergency button anymore. It is fairly obvious it can't be avoided. Nobody has come up with an alternative to it, and I doubt anybody will.

Theoretically it could be solved with trade agreements no? The reason I wrote what I did is because it speaks to the ambitions of Brexiteers for the kind of trade deals they are looking to secure in the future and that they won't be the kind that stop the need for a border between NI and RoI.

Now more importantly, Sloths!

Never been a fan since I discovered they like to crawl in latrines and literally eat shit.

[Demolitia]

I would guess that the idea would be place tariff on goods that we produce and want to protect whilst lowering those on goods we do not produce. For example oranges are currently protected by EU tariffs and a minimum import price however as the UK does not have a suitable climate to produce oranges it could, in theory, remove these barriers and reduce prices for consumers.

I honestly don't know if there are enough products protected by EU tariffs that are not produced within the UK to make this worthwhile but then again I think being in a CU is bad idea.

Blue passports and 3p off an orange! I mean what's not to love about Brexit?!?

Pretty much.
Goods you export are mostly spare parts or cars headed to the EU, and goods you import are spare parts coming from the EU and basically ... half of your food?
I would have understood some fierce fight and opposition to secure free export of services, financial or otherwise since it's pretty much your main export, but opposition on the backstop or trades on goods, not so much.

[Pann]

Theoretically it could be solved with trade agreements no? The reason I wrote what I did is because it speaks to the ambitions of Brexiteers for the kind of trade deals they are looking to secure in the future and that they won't be the kind that stop the need for a border between NI and RoI.

Now more importantly, Sloths!

Never been a fan since I discovered they like to crawl in latrines and literally eat shit.

The problem is that there is a lack of trust that the backstop will not be used as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations which, rightly or wrongly, has not been helped by Spain trying to stake a claim on Gibraltar and Macron's comments on fishing.

[Demolitia]

Theoretically it could be solved with trade agreements no? The reason I wrote what I did is because it speaks to the ambitions of Brexiteers for the kind of trade deals they are looking to secure in the future and that they won't be the kind that stop the need for a border between NI and RoI.

Now more importantly, Sloths!

Never been a fan since I discovered they like to crawl in latrines and literally eat shit.

I doubt it. But that's the next step. If you want to start discussing there you need to leave first. I don't really understand why the withdrawal agreement, which is basically only there to make your departure smoother, is such a problem.
If you want to control immigration, if you are not aligned to EU regulations (with the obligations that come with it), or if not all goods and services are allowed through freely, there will be a need for a border somewhere.

[Pann]

... but opposition on the backstop or trades on goods, not so much.

Opposition to the backstop stems from there being no mechanism for a unilateral exit. There is a belief that it will be used to push an unfavourable trade deal on the UK or to, even, keep the UK locked into EU regulations permanently.

[Demolitia]

Opposition to the backstop stems from there being no mechanism for a unilateral exit. There is a belief that it will be used to push an unfavourable trade deal on the UK.

The UK asked for it. We put the backstop because you wanted to make sure there would be no border in Ireland. I understand the concerns around it, but while it is not time limited, it is event limited. Once we find a better solution and put it future relationship, it goes.
We can put a 2 years time limit on it but what if we don't have a solution then? Then it's ok to have a border because May isn't in a coalition with the DUP anymore?

[LeGin Tufnel]

The problem is that there is a lack of trust that the backstop will not be used as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations which, rightly or wrongly, has not been helped by Spain trying to stake a claim on Gibraltar and Macron's comments on fishing.

Ha!

Gibraltar! Fishing! Important stuff.... for UKIP voters

[Demolitia]

Ha!

Gibraltar! Fishing! Important stuff.... for UKIP voters

Hear, hear.

[LeGin Tufnel]

Slightly OT - Succumb to the cuteness:

Well, they look very cute but they sound.... pretty scary.

Are you a zookeeper?

[Demolitia]

Well, they look very cute but they sound.... pretty scary.

Are you a zookeeper?

They are terrifying, watch this instead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrUM8m2rnP0

edit: Alright I'm out of here. Good night folks.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

Well, they look very cute but they sound.... pretty scary.

Are you a zookeeper?

No, I just like them.

[Pann]

The UK asked for it. We put the backstop because you wanted to make sure there would be no border in Ireland. I understand the concerns around it, but while it is not time limited, it is event limited. Once we find a better solution and put it future relationship, it goes.
We can put a 2 years time limit on it but what if we don't have a solution then? Then it's ok to have a border because May isn't in a coalition with the DUP anymore?

I am not supporting this position. However what happens if the UK finds a better solution to the Irish border and the EU rejects it? Or talks fail because Spain insists on trying to take control of Gibraltar? Or Macron makes good on using it as lever?

You rightly said that the EU could not just blindly trust the UK not to diverge standards yet, as far as many British people are concerned, the UK is being asked to blindly trust the EU.

As far as I can see, it is a shit solution to an unsolvable problem.

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Ha!

Gibraltar! Fishing! Important stuff.... for UKIP voters

Been at the gin again?

[Kronik85]

I doubt it. But that's the next step. If you want to start discussing there you need to leave first.

Which takes us back to Master Negotiator David Davis handing over all our lunch money on day 1. Which leaves me in the awful bind of having to agree with Michael Howard that we should never have agreed to the sequencing and should of played our only card, No Deal (that is to say, if you're a Brexiteer and think No Deal was actually a credible threat).

The UK asked for it. We put the backstop because you wanted to make sure there would be no border in Ireland. I understand the concerns around it, but while it is not time limited, it is event limited. Once we find a better solution and put it future relationship, it goes.
We can put a 2 years time limit on it but what if we don't have a solution then? Then it's ok to have a border because May isn't in a coalition with the DUP anymore?

Not really no. The issue of the border isn't an issue because it's a contingent part of the DUP/Conservative relationship but because The Troubles weren't a time we should ever look to repeat.

[Zaydin]

Opposition to the backstop stems from there being no mechanism for a unilateral exit. There is a belief that it will be used to push an unfavourable trade deal on the UK or to, even, keep the UK locked into EU regulations permanently.

If the UK gets unfavorable trade deals it will be because Brexit drastically reduced their leverage. See: The shitty trade deal Trump is pushing towards the UK when Brexiteers lied to people and claimed they could get much better trade deals than what they already had.

[Kronik85]

Ha!

Gibraltar! Fishing! Important stuff.... for UKIP voters

TBF Nigel, Gibraltar is an issue for the rest of us too. I don't look too favourably on essentially abandoning British citizens.

[Pann]

TBF Nigel, Gibraltar is an issue for the rest of us too. I don't look too favourably on essentially abandoning British citizens.

But they are renowned for being UKIP voters... no... wait... that's not right.

[LeGin Tufnel]

Been at the gin again?

Ad hominem, Pann. You can do better.

[Pann]

Ad hominem, Pann. You can do better.

Yeah, and I thought you wouldn't resort to kipper slurs.

I guess we all have our crosses to bear.