View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. You may not vote on this poll
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #17161
    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    I really don't see how this changes anything. It's cute that the HoC says that it's no longer the legal default, but if there's no deal the 12th then that's it, no deal Brexit happens whether or not the HoC likes it.
    It does and it doesn't. Technically, in the absence of a deal, we are reliant on the EU granting an extension to A50 which obviously this amendment changes nothing in this regard and it certainly does not change the fact that the EU may not grant an extension or they may attach conditions to one. However it is possible in the event of no agreed deal and no extension (or unacceptable terms attached to it) that this amendment compels the government to revoke A50 or return to the EU to request an extension for a ref. or GE.

    At this point in time it is a game of waiting to see whether or not this type of situation comes to pass.

  2. #17162
    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    I really don't see how this changes anything. It's cute that the HoC says that it's no longer the legal default, but if there's no deal the 12th then that's it, no deal Brexit happens whether or not the HoC likes it.
    Ultimately there is only ONE way to guarantee No Deal. A vote that in the event of No Deal at the end of any given extension, Article 50 would be revoked. Nothing else, nothing less can actually achieve ruling out No Deal. But that is something that just will never happen.
    Hail Lilith and see you in Hell!

  3. #17163
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    And a decent number of those protestors are votes for Mélenchon, not Le Pen. And there is a long and very faulty tradition of EU votes being used as protests votes by a public that sadly largely believes their votes don't matter anyway however untrue that may be.
    Yes. And the outcome (as being witnessed in the UK!) is more power to the eurosceptics.

    It's wishful thinking to assume a vote for National Rally isn't, both practically and ideologically, a vote against the EU.

  4. #17164
    Quote Originally Posted by LeGin Tufnel View Post
    Yes. And the outcome (as being witnessed in the UK!) is more power to the eurosceptics.

    It's wishful thinking to assume a vote for National Rally isn't, both practically and ideologically, a vote against the EU.
    It is a vote against the nebulous concept of "the establishment" of which the EU is the local avatar of. There is a nuanced difference here. Not everyone who is voting for hard eurosceptic parties is a sovereigntist. The intrinsic nationalism and populism that characterise the latter is not a necessary condition for the former.
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  5. #17165
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeGin Tufnel View Post
    Yes. And the outcome (as being witnessed in the UK!) is more power to the eurosceptics.

    It's wishful thinking to assume a vote for National Rally isn't, both practically and ideologically, a vote against the EU.
    Eusceptics like my party nva is not against the EU. They are for more federal Europe. There are many EU movements that are sceptics at work so I can't list them all.

  6. #17166
    Pandaren Monk
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    Quote Originally Posted by zealo View Post
    It doesn't change the default so much as just mandates Theresa May to ask the EU for another extension.

    The default is still no-deal if that request gets rejected from the EU side, which it's fairly likely to be if the UK has no clear plan for what they want to do with an extension.
    The UK does have a clear plan for what they want to do with an extension. They plan to use it to negotiate another extension.

  7. #17167
    I think I've clarified this before but there are two forms of Euroscepticism.

    Soft Euroscepticism starts with an explicit admission that the EU is something that must exist and is good for all members, yet has significant critique over any number of issues. GUE-NGL which includes many of the left wing parties in Europe is a soft eurosceptic party.

    Hard Eurosceptics is largely against the European project. It starts from the ECR which would want to retain the three Freedoms; this is what the Tories largely are but Eastern Europe has many parties that identify as such as well. Then on the further side we have ENF which is largely nationalists and populists who at least used to call for the dissolution of the EU (Brexit has forced them to moderate their tune). The main focus of both sides is anti-federalism. Especially ENF but many members of ECR as well are sovereigntists.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Acidbaron View Post
    Eusceptics like my party nva is not against the EU. They are for more federal Europe. There are many EU movements that are sceptics at work so I can't list them all.
    NVA is the Flanders' secessionists right? They caucus with ECR which is mostly hard eurosceptic but I guess as a party they are soft eurosceptics since like other secessionist parties they advocate they can have agency as a smaller nation through membership in the EU?
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  8. #17168
    Quote Originally Posted by Acidbaron View Post
    Eusceptics like my party nva is not against the EU. They are for more federal Europe. There are many EU movements that are sceptics at work so I can't list them all.
    Your position is completely contradictory - ranting about xenophobes in Britain whilst supporting xenophobes in your own country and Germany.

    I am consistently amazed at the attitude of right-wingers who all think their country is special, somehow. Especially when it is Belgium, ffs.

  9. #17169
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    The Cooper-Letwin bill passes 315-310 meaning that the legal default in absence of a deal is no longer no-deal but how this plays out in practice is yet to be seen.
    What I think it shows (I hope it shows) is that if we end up in the final throes of this and it comes down to a straight choice; no-deal or cancel Article 50, that we will cancel Article 50. Which leaves the ERG in a position where they know they can't force anything too drastic. Because if they leave only one way to avoid no-deal, Parliament will take it.
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  10. #17170
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post

    NVA is the Flanders' secessionists right? They caucus with ECR which is mostly hard eurosceptic but I guess as a party they are soft eurosceptics since like other secessionist parties they advocate they can have agency as a smaller nation through membership in the EU?
    The idea behind it is confederalism as north and south are very different beasts politically and often in deadlock when forming federal governments.

    So they are more for strong regions who answer to the EU were the EU decides somethings but not all like we oppose an EU wide minimum wage concept.

    They are not for dismantling the EU but reforming. There is also a larger story behind how they ended up in that group and not in alde.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thathwotheral View Post
    Your position is completely contradictory - ranting about xenophobes in Britain whilst supporting xenophobes in your own country and Germany.

    I am consistently amazed at the attitude of right-wingers who all think their country is special, somehow. Especially when it is Belgium, ffs.
    Oh hai burner nice to trigger you again how goes the antisemitism apologist tour for labour?

    Also like how you just quote a post that the party are seperatists and like to go after Belgium as if that would offend me at all. Ah clueless as always nice to trigger you tho

  11. #17171
    Philip Hammond will say in his ITV interview this evening that any delay to Brexit will inevitably be long and that the UK will have to take part in European elections.

    That says to me that the government is planning for the the extension on offer to be until the end of 2020 (or later). I don't see the EU saying the UK can participate in the elections for an extension that until the end of Q2 or Q3 this year.


    Parliament has voted against Amendment 21 (Takes out the requirement for the prime minister to put the EU’s chosen extension date to MPs) by 313 votes to 304.

    Parliament has voted against Amendment 22 (Ensures that nothing in this bill rules out the government extending Article 50 in a different way) by 400 votes to 220

    Next up is an amendment limiting the extension to 22 May (the day before the European Parliament elections). Also unlikely to pass given the amount of "no" shouts.

  12. #17172
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butler Log View Post
    Philip Hammond will say in his ITV interview this evening that any delay to Brexit will inevitably be long and that the UK will have to take part in European elections.

    That says to me that the government is planning for the the extension on offer to be until the end of 2020. I don't see the EU saying the UK can participate in the elections for an extension that until the end of Q2 or Q3 this year.


    Parliament has voted against Amendment 21 (Takes out the requirement for the prime minister to put the EU’s chosen extension date to MPs) by 313 votes to 304.

    Parliament has voted against Amendment 22 (Ensures that nothing in this bill rules out the government extending Article 50 in a different way) by 400 votes to 220

    Next up is an amendment limiting the extension to 22 May (the day before the European Parliament elections). Also unlikely to pass given the amount of "no" shouts.
    Is there any movement to the idea that leaving might not be the best plan?
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  13. #17173
    Quote Originally Posted by Butler Log View Post
    Philip Hammond will say in his ITV interview this evening that any delay to Brexit will inevitably be long and that the UK will have to take part in European elections.

    That says to me that the government is planning for the the extension on offer to be until the end of 2020 (or later). I don't see the EU saying the UK can participate in the elections for an extension that until the end of Q2 or Q3 this year.
    What's the purpose of such a long extension, do you know that?
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  14. #17174
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    What's the purpose of such a long extension, do you know that?
    I don't. I suspect, however, that Government hopes the credibility of the bilateral talks between the government and the Leader of the Opposition (plus shadow cabinet) that are happening now and the acceptance of participation in the elections going along with a commitment to a longer delay (supported by both government and opposition) will persuade the EUCO to grant the extension.
    Last edited by Butler to Baby Sloths; 2019-04-03 at 09:46 PM.

  15. #17175
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    What's the purpose of such a long extension, do you know that?
    Basically if they are going to give an extension long enough that elections would be required for the EU parliament they are not going to want some wanker who goes in throws bombs for a few weeks and leaves. If this gets extended then its going to have to be extended for a long enough time to make the whole election thing with UK people running worth the bother.

  16. #17176
    Clause 4 just got smashed. Ayes 105 noes 509

  17. #17177
    Quote Originally Posted by Butler Log View Post
    I don't. I suspect, however, that Government hopes the credibility of the bilateral talks between the government and the Leader of the Opposition (plus shadow cabinet) that are happening now and the acceptance of participation in the elections going along with a commitment to a longer delay (supported by both government and opposition) will persuade the EUCO to grant the extension.
    (Just as an aside, there is also a EU Commission, so that abbreviation isn't ideal... is it official?)

    My gut feeling says this extension isn't going to happen. Either the UK calls GE or a second referendum before April 10th (the Council summit) or it will get rejected. Certainly the referendum seems to be out of the question for the Commons. I think the Council made it quite clear that they will not even discuss an extension for any other reasons, certainly not for more of May's domestic political games, the success rates of which have been abysmal so far.
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    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
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  18. #17178
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    (Just as an aside, there is also a EU Commission, so that abbreviation isn't ideal... is it official?)

    My gut feeling says this extension isn't going to happen. Either the UK calls GE or a second referendum before April 10th (the Council summit) or it will get rejected. Certainly the referendum seems to be out of the question for the Commons. I think the Council made it quite clear that they will not even discuss an extension for any other reasons, certainly not for more of May's domestic political games, the success rates of which have been abysmal so far.
    Donald Tusk's official twitter (the one for the office of the President of the European Council) is @eucopresident - I assumed it was.

  19. #17179
    Quote Originally Posted by kaid View Post
    Basically if they are going to give an extension long enough that elections would be required for the EU parliament they are not going to want some wanker who goes in throws bombs for a few weeks and leaves. If this gets extended then its going to have to be extended for a long enough time to make the whole election thing with UK people running worth the bother.
    There are voices, among which is the deputy chief negotiator for the EU (Verhofstadt), that quite rightly point out that the EU wouldn't do itself a favour in tolerating people like Farage much longer if the point of this whole debacle is for them to leave anyway. I don't see it happening. On April 10th, you'll see another Salzburg, this time a final one. I'm pretty sure of it. Macron isn't a happy bunny at all at the moment.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Butler Log View Post
    Donald Tusk's official twitter is @eucopresident - I assumed it was.
    It may be, I wasn't aware of it. It is an ambiguous abbreviation, but fuck knows what they do in Brussels... haha.
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  20. #17180
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    It may be, I wasn't aware of it. It is an ambiguous abbreviation, but fuck knows what they do in Brussels... haha.
    Knowing the EU, it probably went through 5 deliberating committees and bureaucrats' offices before it was decided, so maybe?

    Bill passes to second reading by 313 to 312. Majority of one.
    Last edited by Butler to Baby Sloths; 2019-04-03 at 10:27 PM.

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