[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...thdraw-support

the Queen is not off the hook, if shit hits the fan.
conservative party member will vote in the new party leader, but PM is still "chosen" by the Commons, as the current majority is not obliged to swear unfaltering allegiance to Bojo/Hunt. if the new PM cannot command the confidence of the House because a handful of Tory PM already deny it, QE2 is in dilemma. she may very well has to recall May as the last affirmed PM.

“One possible scenario is that a group of Conservative MPs is so concerned about the winning candidate that they declare their withdrawal of support immediately the result of the leadership contest is known – ie, before the new PM is appointed. This would pose a serious dilemma for the Queen and those advising her, because it would not be clear that the new Conservative leader could command confidence.”

Poor Liz !

IIRC the new leader of the government party has to form a government and win a vote of confidence in the House to actually become Prime Minister.

As of now, the Tories+DUP have a majority of 3. It wouldn't take too many defections from Tory MPs that REALLY hate Boris or Hunt to lose that vote. In that scenario they would have failed to gain the confidence of the House, and Corbyn (as leader of the opposition) would be given the opportunity to try to form a government. If he fails also, it's a general election in 6 weeks (and the MPs don't get their summer holidays because they suddenly have to contest their seats).

In such a scenario, the Queen would be acting entirely within constitutional precedent.

[ranzino]

IIRC the new leader of the government party has to form a government and win a vote of confidence in the House to actually become Prime Minister.

As of now, the Tories+DUP have a majority of 3. It wouldn't take too many defections from Tory MPs that REALLY hate Boris or Hunt to lose that vote. In that scenario they would have failed to gain the confidence of the House, and Corbyn (as leader of the opposition) would be given the opportunity to try to form a government. If he fails also, it's a general election in 6 weeks (and the MPs don't get their summer holidays because they suddenly have to contest their seats).

In such a scenario, the Queen would be acting entirely within constitutional precedent.

it would shorten the procedure if those defectors would stand their ground ASAP; the vote of party member is for leadership of cons only then.
begs an interesting question: is there any interest by BoJo/Hunt to become party leader only and never ever reach No10 ? they may even fall from grace as leaders of party after next GE, getting blamed for the loss of government. doesnt look well in the CV

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

it would shorten the procedure if those defectors would stand their ground ASAP; the vote of party member is for leadership of cons only then.
begs an interesting question: is there any interest by BoJo/Hunt to become party leader only and never ever reach No10 ? they may even fall from grace as leaders of party after next GE, getting blamed for the loss of government. doesnt look well in the CV

Everything Boris has said and done since the spring of 2016 has been to place himself in No. 10 Downing Street. He switched allegiances from Remain to Leave when he saw that by supporting Leave, he would make Cameron's position untenable. He has been pushing "no deal" since Theresa May was appointed PM because he wanted to weaken her position and engineer a leadership contest where he is the prime candidate. That is all Boris cares about. He is using "no deal brexit" to get into No. 10 and is pushing it now because the party members want a candidate that says that kind of thing.

There is no chance he backs down, none at all.

[ranzino]

Everything Boris has said and done since the spring of 2016 has been to place himself in No. 10 Downing Street. He switched allegiances from Remain to Leave when he saw that by supporting Leave, he would make Cameron's position untenable. He has been pushing "no deal" since Theresa May was appointed PM because he wanted to weaken her position and engineer a leadership contest where he is the prime candidate. That is all Boris cares about. He is using "no deal brexit" to get into No. 10 and is pushing it now because the party members want a candidate that says that kind of thing.

There is no chance he backs down, none at all.

fom the artile above:
"In their analysis, Hazell and Russell conclude that the Queen could make the new Tory leader a “provisional appointment” as prime minister, conditional on him demonstrating he has the confidence of enough MPs."

will it suffice to Boris he is on probation and will be kicked out on foreseeable timetable ? PM until recess is over, some weeks at best

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

fom the artile above:
"In their analysis, Hazell and Russell conclude that the Queen could make the new Tory leader a “provisional appointment” as prime minister, conditional on him demonstrating he has the confidence of enough MPs."

Isn't that how it happens anyway? The Queen tells the most likely candidate (typically the leader of the largest party in Parliament) that they can put a cabinet together, and then the appointment is conditional on winning a vote of confidence.

[ranzino]

Isn't that how it happens anyway? The Queen tells the most likely candidate (typically the leader of the largest party in Parliament) that they can put a cabinet together, and then the appointment is conditional on winning a vote of confidence.

is the PM obliged to trigger a vote on their owns side of the dispatch box (any motion government needs its MPs for) almost immediately or is he/she in business until the opposition motions for a vote of no confidence ?

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

Ah, Jeremy Hunt, being a c...

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/stat...75160896741376

And he is the "almost reasonable" one. This is what I imagine Boris Johnson would do in that situation:



And then people would say "Hah, that's Boris alright".

[LeGin Tufnel]

Ah, Jeremy Hunt, being a c...

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/stat...75160896741376

It’s extraordinary, completely extraordinary. The idea that somehow life will continue as normal after a no deal Brexit.

Doomed, we’re all doomed!

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

It’s extraordinary, completely extraordinary. The idea that somehow life will continue as normal after a no deal Brexit.

Doomed, we’re all doomed!

Yeah, he said "yep, people are going to lose their jobs because of Brexit".

[Thathwalpathar]

[Incidentally, completely OT, but how does mmo-champion log IP addresses? How can identities be obtained from a website like this? Do I need to start doing a burner and using a VPN?]

Use Tor if you want to be anonymous, they can't track your IP with that, though they rarely check.

[Thathwalpathar]

You can sit in your ivory tower with your overvalued FAANG stocks and assume a no deal won’t affect you negatively, but I can assure you: it will in one way or another. What will you do when I stop paying taxes? Are you prepared to pay my share? Will you pay the extra taxes required to send people like myself to prison?

Dunno about Dribbles but I can't see this affecting me personally. I get paid in dollars, so any damage to the UK economy boosts my income in relative terms.

Price of food and all that will probably go up. Fortunately essential purchases are a marginal cost to me.

I do expect the economy to be totally fucked and society collaprse, but it has been fucking horrible for years so I don't know what I'm supposed to be scared of exactly. Do you not remember when half of London was burned down by zombie hordes of kids?

[AeneasBK]

Yeah, he said "yep, people are going to lose their jobs because of Brexit".

As someone who very often completely misses the point; is there something terribly wrong about making that admission?

[LeGin Tufnel]

As someone who very often completely misses the point; is there something terribly wrong about making that admission?

Yep, I agree, but it's a shame this sort of honesty wasn't forthcoming in 2016.

Admitting to lemmings *now* that the knock-on effect of jumping over a cliff isn't particularly palatable, isn't as helpful as it would have been when the UK voted.

Carry On Regardless - starring Jeremy *unt.

[Pann]

As someone who very often completely misses the point; is there something terribly wrong about making that admission?

I don't think there is anything wrong with admitting that people will lose their jobs because of Brexit however I have a problem with the flippant way in which Hunt is prepared to sacrifice the careers of others on the altar of supposed democracy in an effort to advance his own.

[Crispin]

It’s extraordinary, completely extraordinary. The idea that somehow life will continue as normal after a no deal Brexit.

Doomed, we’re all doomed!

Not all of us :-X

[Slant]

I don't think there is anything wrong with admitting that people will lose their jobs because of Brexit however I have a problem with the flippant way in which Hunt is prepared to sacrifice the careers of others on the altar of supposed democracy in an effort to advance his own.

Um, the UK sacrificed those jobs the moment they had that referendum. Him acknowledging the inevitable is hardly "being flippant" about it. Perhaps it's the first time a UK politician tries to reconnect with reality.

[Noradin]

Johnson said May's current EU withdrawal agreement is "dead" after being rejected three times by the British parliament.

However, he believes there would be enough time to negotiate a new agreement with the EU ahead of the deadline and hoped the bloc would be willing to grant an "implementation period".

I guess you need a strong belief to be able to turn your back to reality.

With whom is what I ask.
There is no EU negotiation team for Brexit and no new one can be appointed before mid November.

Maybe he missed that November comes after October, its in the names even.

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It wouldn't even be up to the EU. The EU would still need to be ASKED to give an extension and that means you'd need not just a GE but to swear a government first, unless an interim government was authorized to seek the extension.

Which parliament would authorise them? An "interim one"?

[Noradin]

Put it this way... the only reason Parliament has such a big clout over the monarchy is because the people are behind them. Or... were? Which is the point I'm making. If Parliament doesn't represent the people anymore, they lose their power over the monarchy. And certainly, no matter what the Queen would decide, it'd be better than this mess.

But at the same time, there is no way for her to win by taking a stance.
She'd sacrifice herself, and the monarchy, for what probably wouldn't be sucessful at re-uniting the country on the matter, would thereby only postpone the problem and take away her ability to potentially do some good later on.

Also, by taking control she would force the EU to suspend the UK membership for not being a democracy anymore.

[Slant]

But at the same time, there is no way for her to win by taking a stance.
She'd sacrifice herself, and the monarchy, for what probably wouldn't be sucessful at re-uniting the country on the matter, would thereby only postpone the problem and take away her ability to potentially do some good later on.

Also, by taking control she would force the EU to suspend the UK membership for not being a democracy anymore.

Well, whatever it is they have now, it's clearly not a democracy, either.

But membership isn't suspended. Voting rights are suspended.

[Noradin]

I have no idea. In my country there are provisions for the President to swear in an interim government when needed as long as there is a specific goal and a specific duration for it.

Yes, but an interim government is not enough when the authorisation by parliament is needed and parliament gets dissolved for a GE.

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Well, whatever it is they have now, it's clearly not a democracy, either.

But membership isn't suspended. Voting rights are suspended.

Because suspending voting rights is a step before suspension of membership.
Cannot suspend membership without first suspending voting rights and issuing a warning.
(Which is as it should be, the EU has a duty to every citizen of every member state.)