View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. You may not vote on this poll
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #18781
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Goblin View Post
    It's not so much that no deal can't happen, but taking every measure to ensure it won't happen.

    When we say "No deal cannot happen" we don't mean it's impossible beyond the realms of mortal mean, it means we cannot allow for it to happen.

    Those amendments are preventing us heading straight towards it without any opportunity to change course.
    That's nice, but if you can't bring anything forward it will be no-deal regardless.
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  2. #18782
    Moderator Northern Goblin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    That's nice, but if you can't bring anything forward it will be no-deal regardless.
    Sure, but you'll see revocation before you see no deal.

    That's what we mean by not letting it happen.


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  3. #18783
    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Goblin View Post
    It's not so much that no deal can't happen, but taking every measure to ensure it won't happen.

    When we say "No deal cannot happen" we don't mean it's impossible beyond the realms of mortal mean, it means we cannot allow for it to happen.

    Those amendments are preventing us heading straight towards it without any opportunity to change course.
    What he's trying to say, and what I've tried to point out a thousand times... regardless of how many times your politicians decide in the House of Commons to make "no-deal" an illegal option, rejecting it, saying it must not happen, vote "against" it...

    If by October 31st the UK has not ratified the WA or revoked A50, no-deal is going to happen. Those are the two options you have to avoid no-deal. And neither one has gotten even close to being passed.

    So, yes. It's a nice sentiment. And we know when you say you "cannot allow it to happen" you actually mean "someone will have to revoke A50". But that is as much fantasy as Brexiteers thinking you'll be "alright". Right now, there is no indication anyone but BoJo will be PM, this is the UK's one realistic shot at getting a new PM before the time's out, I dare say. The Queen won't fucking touch this topic with a ten foot pole, we all know that despite the amusing musings on her revoking it in a last ditch effort... I mean, crackpot theory right there. So, who's gonna do it? And with what legitimacy? Remember, the UK not only has to find a PM to revoke it, the EU basically outright stated that the UK'd have to oblige to the same conditions to revoke it that they used when invoking. This is the bit where the EU relies on the UK acting within its own constitutional bounds, as a sovereign nation, btw. So the UK also has to find a Parliament that will repeal the law that got A50 invoked in the first place. Tell me, how many times do you think it'll take for Parliament to reject such a motion before anyone will stand up and say "Well.. fuck?"

    But perhaps I misunderstand completely again in all the fucked up rephrasing so you don't feel personally attacked. Let's ask... when you say "When we say "No deal cannot happen" we don't mean it's impossible beyond the realms of mortal mean, it means we cannot allow for it to happen.", what specifically do YOU think YOU personally can do to "not allow it to happen"?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Goblin View Post
    Sure, but you'll see revocation before you see no deal.

    That's what we mean by not letting it happen.
    Press F for respectful doubt...
    Last edited by Slant; 2019-07-20 at 03:19 PM.
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  4. #18784
    Moderator Northern Goblin's Avatar
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    Making no deal illegal means that at the 11th hour, you'll see a revocation happen. The reason people don't want to do it early is in large part political suicide, what you'll see happen is equivalent to when they stop the bomb timer at 00:01 on Mission Impossible. I get for the sake of stability and being able to move on from this shitshow you'd like it sooner, we all would. But *politics*


    Parliament can rebel against Government, it's unconventional, and largely doesn't happen because most of the time Government has a super majority and can keep the back benchers in check to put through all their legislation.

    This Parliament can introduce and amend Government legislation, that if it passes the Government would then try to vote against (as has happened before, and will likely do again with this changed Northern Ireland bill) so regardless of who is Prime Minister, the House of Commons has the ability to act in a way that leaves the PM powerless (and if it's Boris, this will happen a few times, enjoy)

    As for what I can do personally, my own MP is for revoking A50, and certainly opposes no deal. If they were pro no-deal, I could seek to get them replaced via petition that would trigger a by election, and look to vote in someone more favourable.

    There are so many loopholes, rarely used rules and some forgotten rules that are all coming into play as legal teams for various parties and interest groups pour over the details.

    In any case, while no-deal IS the default so long as A50 remains active, it is not an inevitability, and not something that the UK will head to without credible opposition.

    - - - Updated - - -

    As for the Queen, I've not seen any theory on her revoking it, nor does she have the power to.

    What she has the right to, as head of state, is meet with the rest of the EU leaders at the next gathering. Traditionally this never happens, the Prime Minister goes in her stead.

    But if a further extension is needed, the theory is that to break convention and have her travel, as is her sovereign right, and speak instead of Boris, would be far more successful. Personally I would not be in favour of such a move, as we have kept the crown out of direct interference in politics since 1931 (afaik, I may be wrong but the King George instructing the forming of a national government was the last instance where the sovereign had a straight up hand in the affairs of state)


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  5. #18785
    Oh right, I muddled that up, they wanted her to ask for an extension, not revoke. Still think it's a crackpot theory, why would she touch this subject. She's the only one coming out of this whole affair with a clean vest.

    I wish you good luck with your "politics" and betting heavily on an eleventh hour fix. Personally, I'll handle my business with the perspective of the UK being out on November 1st.
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  6. #18786
    Moderator Northern Goblin's Avatar
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    Personally I don't think she will ever utilise her powers that lie outside the Bagehot rights (to be informed, to encourage and to warn) but at the same time if it did happen, I wouldn't bat an eyelid as frankly not much surprises me anymore over this. I'll be sad that it had to happen though.

    I'm hoping we don't have to get to the eleventh hour (I mean we've been there once before with an extension) and that things occur sooner. But I'm confident if we do get there, there are enough Parliamentarians ready to do the right thing, as indicated by recent votes.

    Next big step is what the Labour party does on Monday with this VoNC in Corbyn, and then the conclusion of the NI bill and the results of the Conservative leadership election.

    Then we get absolutely nothing happening till September -.-


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  7. #18787
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Goblin View Post
    It's not so much that no deal can't happen, but taking every measure to ensure it won't happen.

    When we say "No deal cannot happen" we don't mean it's impossible beyond the realms of mortal mean, it means we cannot allow for it to happen.

    Those amendments are preventing us heading straight towards it without any opportunity to change course.
    As that documentary in my opinion points out correctly, those amendments are merely there to give the people the impression that they are doing something about the brexit, it's a game, an act, a pointless display of showmanship.

    Considering the next PM you'll get is all populist, zero substance. A no deal will happen, what little good will is left is already squandered and if not the new PM will make sure it will using Brexit as a personal stage act.

    You are banking on someone showing a spine and recalling a50 what you state yourself is political suicide, this is so out of character you might as well expect the PM to convert to Islam openly, that's how unlikely it is. It is even so that the hardliners stand to make a profit out of the brexit and these hardliners have taken control of the tories.

    Second thing you are hoping for is yet another extension, while with each previous extension it has left a bad taste in the EU's mouth. Because no progress is made on every turn, at best threats are made from the UK towards the EU, thinking they are dealing with some sort of former colony they can strong arm.

    It is even believed so that the extensions granted were not to do the UK a favour but to allow even more businesses to move out of the UK in a less painful manner and to allow the member states to better prepare.

  8. #18788
    Quote Originally Posted by Acidbaron View Post
    As that documentary in my opinion points out correctly, those amendments are merely there to give the people the impression that they are doing something about the brexit, it's a game, an act, a pointless display of showmanship.

    Considering the next PM you'll get is all populist, zero substance. A no deal will happen, what little good will is left is already squandered and if not the new PM will make sure it will using Brexit as a personal stage act.

    You are banking on someone showing a spine and recalling a50 what you state yourself is political suicide, this is so out of character you might as well expect the PM to convert to Islam openly, that's how unlikely it is. It is even so that the hardliners stand to make a profit out of the brexit and these hardliners have taken control of the tories.

    Second thing you are hoping for is yet another extension, while with each previous extension it has left a bad taste in the EU's mouth. Because no progress is made on every turn, at best threats are made from the UK towards the EU, thinking they are dealing with some sort of former colony they can strong arm.

    It is even believed so that the extensions granted were not to do the UK a favour but to allow even more businesses to move out of the UK in a less painful manner and to allow the member states to better prepare.
    And if recent voices are to be trusted, the EU considers the preparation process to be concluded. As I said, all indicators point to a full stop to this madness on October 31st. I would bet money on no further extensions being granted.
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    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
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  9. #18789
    Herald of the Titans dribbles's Avatar
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    People are still talking about extensions? Did they not hear what Boris said about that yesterday?

    "Why would we have another extension? I don’t think there is any appetite in the UK for another extension, nobody wants it. I certainly won’t have it. And don’t forget how it works — at the moment the UK leaves legally on October 31, that is the law."

    As he turns the Brexit dept. into the Ministry of No Deal.

    I know people say they are not Sun readers, so I suppose it is to be expected they can't know what he said. So, just a one page read, you won't know if all you read is the Guardian, a paper of wishful thinking, he'll hardly be reported in there...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit...eu-exit-plans/

    Glad to be of service.

  10. #18790
    Moderator Northern Goblin's Avatar
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    There's really not much to say other than I disagree with your assertions on a vast number of points you put forward.

    But I'll correct you on one thing, it's not so much that I'm hoping for a third extension, but that certain events, if taken as a final decision, will require an extension to impliment. At that point the decision is already made and any extension as a matter of would not be us kicking the can down the road further.

    Which would be a vast difference to the last two extensions that were asked for with no actual plan.

    For example (purely for the sake of this thread) Parliament passes a second referendum act that is legally binding and the result will be implimented within a week of it taking place. To pull that off, they'd need an extension to get everything done.

    Where I'm optimistic is that if something like the above were presented to the EU27, with a clear destination, no further haggling or wrangling of the details and a decisive answer, they'd extend purely to see this through to what would be its conclusive end.


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  11. #18791
    Referendum or GE, those are the conditions for a new extension. Why do people in the UK keep ignoring what the EU says?
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  12. #18792
    Moderator Northern Goblin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    Referendum or GE, those are the conditions for a new extension. Why do people in the UK keep ignoring what the EU says?
    No idea, but those essentially were the ones I had in mind. Nothing else really warrants another extension in my opinion.


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  13. #18793
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    Referendum or GE, those are the conditions for a new extension. Why do people in the UK keep ignoring what the EU says?
    Because, for some reason, we appear to think we're either in a great position or have some sort of bargaining power. Eventually, people will have to realise what an utter joke we've become.

  14. #18794
    Quote Originally Posted by UnifiedDivide View Post
    Because, for some reason, we appear to think we're either in a great position or have some sort of bargaining power. Eventually, people will have to realise what an utter joke we've become.
    I think it'll take at least 20 years for the English UKers to realize that.
    - Lars

  15. #18795
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    Referendum or GE, those are the conditions for a new extension. Why do people in the UK keep ignoring what the EU says?
    They haven't been listening to what the EU has been saying for the last 4 years, why would they start now?

  16. #18796

  17. #18797
    BoJo is the ultimate career politician. He does what he needs to do in the moment to further his career (i.e. become PM). He swapped allegiance to Leave when he thought it would destabilise Cameron's position so that he could launch a leadership challenge. He moved to hardcore No Deal to weaken May's position and force her to resign. He continues with No Deal to woo the party membership to become PM.

    After all that work, is he really going to willingly put Corbyn in the position where he could realistically win a vote of no confidence and trigger a General Election? If BoJo stays true to form, the people who put him in No. 10 are going to be disappointed on 1st November. He does not want to take the record of "shortest tenure" from George Canning, who was in office for only 119 days (a record that has stood for 192 years).

    However, the EU (also Ireland, according to Simon Coveney) are not prepared to re-write the WA. They are only going to change the wording of the accompanying political statement of intent. I do not see a way around the Backstop without finding a way to make the Irish border work for Great Britain, Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland and the EU. Credible progress toward that goal could, along with a General Election and a Referendum) be a reason for the EU to grant another extension.
    Last edited by Butler to Baby Sloths; 2019-07-21 at 08:17 AM.

  18. #18798
    Quote Originally Posted by Riversong View Post
    Don't be stupid the mans a clown and a bumbling fool, DO NOT be swayed by honeyed words, he's already lied to you before whats stopping him from doing it again?!
    What? What does your post have to do with anything I have written? Did you even bother to read the article?

  19. #18799
    Herald of the Titans dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    As long as he doesn't sign the existing surrender document/WA. Good it seems from Reuters that the EU are ready to capitulate, otherwise D-Day must be October 31st, deal or no deal just as the PM in waiting has indicated.

  20. #18800
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    That you people after years of them lying and playing you like fools, still put any stock in anything they say is honestly shocking.

    Boris is a populist, he'll say anything that makes him look better till he's in the driver seat. The last few weeks he said the same opposite merely days apart.
    You're still going "oh he might not be so bad!", i understand it's human nature to downplay terrible outcomes as it makes it easier to process it, but really putting any stock in anything they do now and you might as well buy some magic beans from someone.

    He is full of shit, the EU has said time and time again same as with May you can go to every government on the continent as much you want, you can make as many nice tours within the EU as you want, you are not dealing with member states you are dealing with the EU period.
    This is the exact same thing May did, the exact same thing and you're still buying it.

    So you have two options, you believe him, you believe the sunday times or you believe the EU who has been saying repeatedly there won't be a deal with individual member states, the head of states who have said there won't be individual deals with member states.

    One side has been competent and consistent the other side has been playing you like a fool.

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