[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[dribbles]

If you have an election now, Boris can run it with his hard line "leave on 31 October" message and he may well keep a lot of people that would have deserted for the Brexit party on his side. Labour can wait, knowing that Parliament will stop Brexit happening on that date, then we will have an election where the Boris bounce has faded and he's shown his impotence to the Brexit crowd. Better for Labour and better for the country. Unless the Libs become Tory enablers again, of course.

Where've you been? Out on parole for good behaviour? Back for the grand finale to see the will of the people enacted? You know the election won't be until after Oct 31st when we will already have left don't you? You can campaign to re-join the EU I suppose...

Meanwhile I see eurochums are going to ever extreme lengths in order to beat the new border controls going up after brexit.

They are going to stop at nothing to reach the land of the free! We must be vigilant...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49225001

Flyboarding Frenchman crosses English Channel

[rogueMatthias]

My assumption is that Labour is not putting forth a motion of no confidence because even if they win the motion, they'd lose the elections and thus gain nothing from it. At most you might have the Tories win a plurality but no majority and then have no government which is just not ideal.

Right now, their only shot is probably to have the Tories eat the damage from Brexit and then try to force an election but I don't exactly see why that would bring Labour on top. They'd still be the party that did nothing to stop this and Lib Dems and regional parties would hammer the message.

Heck it's actually better for the country to go on like this so that the Tories at least have time to pass necessary legislation for No Deal. Can Corbyn really convince Remainers to group behind him in a GE even if it happens after sitting on the fence for so long it's permanently attached to his spine?

Pretty much this.

The Brexit party currently only exists to blackmail the Tories to pushing through Brexit with no delay. If there were a General Election it would be such a massive own goal for them to run candidates everywhere and potentially lose the Tories power and putting Brexit at risk.

With that in mind, if there was a General Election today, the most likely outcome would be -
Farage endorses conservatives as the only way to secure Brexit and stands down Brexit party to ensure they don't hurt Torie chances.
Areas with high Lib dem support will continue to be Lib Dem
Areas with high Labour support will see their vote split by Lib Dams, and Tories potentially picking up the seat instead.

(This is all asuming Farage has the common sense to step down in a GE. If Brexit party didn't step down, the winner could be anyone - The FPTP system could even give a majority to a party with less than 20-30% of the votes)

They want Corbyn gone but they also know there are just too many delusional Corbynistas that are in the party overall to be able to oust him so they won't no confidence him again as it would not work and play into Johnson hand (before that May and Cameron).

Well he already lost one vote of no confidence and refused to leave anyway. I think Corbyn's here to stay.

[Slant]

On topic - Dominic Cummings (who I genuinely do want to meet in a dark alley) has briefed MPs that it’s too late for the opposition to force an election before the deadline. Which, prior to recess being taken, was my understanding of the situation. Labour deliberately didn’t force the issue because Corbyn is quite happy to crash out and blame the consequences on the Tories. And I didn’t understand the lack of comment on this at the time. Is he right?

It's not like everyone said this to any British person they met since April. There seems to be a filter somewhere, where British persons hear a continental person talk about the relationship between the UK and EU and what needs to happen to fix it or fix the whole Brexit thing and all British people think is "Hmm, I wonder what would happen to the composition of the Commons if local elections in Swindon swung to the Lib Dems..."

No offense, but even most of the Remainers on this board are weirdly wired that way. You just cannot see past your domestic politics. And that is why you fail to actually accomplish anything. You're at a point where you probably need to set an actual fire to Parliament to get somebody's attention.

- - - Updated - - -

If you have an election now, Boris can run it with his hard line "leave on 31 October" message and he may well keep a lot of people that would have deserted for the Brexit party on his side. Labour can wait, knowing that Parliament will stop Brexit happening on that date, then we will have an election where the Boris bounce has faded and he's shown his impotence to the Brexit crowd. Better for Labour and better for the country. Unless the Libs become Tory enablers again, of course.

That is not going to happen. Might as well go for those "technological solutions"...

[Fuiking]

Where've you been? Out on parole for good behaviour? Back for the grand finale to see the will of the people enacted? You know the election won't be until after Oct 31st when we will already have left don't you? You can campaign to re-join the EU I suppose...

Meanwhile I see eurochums are going to ever extreme lengths in order to beat the new border controls going up after brexit.

They are going to stop at nothing to reach the land of the free! We must be vigilant...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49225001

Flyboarding Frenchman crosses English Channel

I hope your joking to trigger a RAWRRRRRRRRRRR response from us ''eurochums'' ... but if your serious: its a record attempt

[LeGin Tufnel]

It's not like everyone said this to any British person they met since April.

In fairness, though, there seem to different opinions on this:

E.g., https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...ef=uk-homepage

There is just about time to squeeze in a sneaky general election before October 31. Johnson has insisted he will not call a snap election – but he could be forced into it.

Jeremy Corbyn has said he could call a vote of no confidence in the government when parliament returns on September 3. The Commons vote would be held on September 4.

Ominously for the prime minister, several Tory MPs have not ruled out siding with Labour to bring down their own government in order to stop no-deal Brexit.

If the government loses it would have until September 18 to try and persuade MPs to change their minds and win a second confidence vote.

Corbyn could try to cobble together a majority with other parties to take over as prime minister without holding an election.

There has also been talk of a government of national unity being assembled by MPs of all parties under the leadership of a senior pro-Remain Tory or Labour MP.

If not, a general election would be triggered. Parliament would dissolve 25 working days before polling day.

This means the earliest day a general election could be held would be October 25. Just one week before the October 31 exit day.

If Labour wins the election, Corbyn could then theoretically ask the EU to extend Article 50 at the last minute.

Which assumes that conferences won't happen and that parliament will be sitting on September 18.

I mean, yes, IDD with you: it's a complete mess. But the outcome isn't certain yet.

But I would be interested to hear Cummings' rationale for there being no time now. It must just be - conferences will go ahead as usual? What a joke.

[Transworp]

Right now, their only shot is probably to have the Tories eat the damage from Brexit and then try to force an election but I don't exactly see why that would bring Labour on top. They'd still be the party that did nothing to stop this and Lib Dems and regional parties would hammer the message.

You are part of this weird clique of insular people who think the only thing that matters in British politics is Brexit. It isn't.

You would think from this thread that everyone in the country is foaming at the mouth in terror at the prospect of Brexit. Most are not. Most either support it or don't care. Traditionally parties that talked about Brexit did badly at the polls except at european elections.

Issues that actually matters to people are things like how much they are paid and what the cost of living is. The party that wins will be the one that talks about those issues, not those who blather on about Brexit when the country is already sick of the subject before it has even happened.

Regarding the lib dems in particular: they just elected a leader who voted with the Tory whip more times than Jeremy Hunt or Michael Gove. She's refused to rule out the possibility of a coalition with the Tories. It is going to be very easy for Labour to portary her as someone who would get into bed with the Tories and help them get Brexit through, because that's what she probably would do if she gets the chance. You'd have to be a real idiot to vote for the LD's if you support remain for that reason.

Perhaps the Greens will pick up Labour votes, but they don't really have the infrastructure.

[JohnBrown1917]

Well he already lost one vote of no confidence and refused to leave anyway. I think Corbyn's here to stay.

The labour party itself still supports him, so they can get fucked.

[Mayhem]

Meanwhile I see eurochums are going to ever extreme lengths in order to beat the new border controls going up after brexit.

What border controls?

[Easo]

Not sure if this was posted, but it seems that UK is attempting to use the good old threatening method:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49223319

Brexit: UK calls on EU to renegotiate or face no deal

EU leaders must give their chief negotiator the mandate to revise the UK's withdrawal agreement, otherwise a no-deal Brexit is "coming down the tracks", the Brexit secretary has said.

That worked out previously! Oh, wait...

[Transworp]

The labour party itself still supports him, so they can get fucked.

They voted for him twice by a larger majority than any other leader. The Labour party itself has become the largest party in Europe.

There is almost no political support for a centre-left alternative to Corbyn, hence the spectacular success of Change UK with its 0% of the vote.

It is almost comical how unrepresentative this forum is.

[Mayhem]

Not sure if this was posted, but it seems that UK is attempting to use the good old threatening method:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49223319



That worked out previously! Oh, wait...

So the next daft one to ignore everything said and written by the EU. No-deal it is good luck UK.

[Acidbaron]

Not sure if this was posted, but it seems that UK is attempting to use the good old threatening method:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49223319



That worked out previously! Oh, wait...

When you look at british politicians you need to understand that about 90% of said comments is made for their base, nobody else is dumb enough to believe that.

For them as most of the conservative elected are well off people who won't personally be affected by the brexit, in fact some stand to make money betting against their nation well being. This is all just a charade, at the end of the day over half a million brits will be out of work and and the holy trinity of BJ, May and Cameron will make the closing down of the Industry what Thatcher did look like a minor set back.

You also have a bunch of media outlets that play this game. Even when it all falls a part plenty will still blame the EU for something they initiated.

[Transworp]

For them as most of the conservative elected are well off people who won't personally be affected by the brexit, in fact some stand to make money betting against their nation well being. This is all just a charade, at the end of the day over half a million brits will be out of work .

Won't happen, they'll just be forced into non-jobs where they'll effectively be paid less than minimum wage, which is what is happening anyway albeit more slowly.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

Meanwhile I see eurochums are going to ever extreme lengths in order to beat the new border controls going up after brexit.

They are going to stop at nothing to reach the land of the free! We must be vigilant...

Last week you said there will be no additional border controls post-brexit (so that you can pretend the UK isn't in breach of the GFA). Make your mind up.

[Slant]

In fairness, though, there seem to different opinions on this:

E.g., https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...ef=uk-homepage



Which assumes that conferences won't happen and that parliament will be sitting on September 18.

I mean, yes, IDD with you: it's a complete mess. But the outcome isn't certain yet.

But I would be interested to hear Cummings' rationale for there being no time now. It must just be - conferences will go ahead as usual? What a joke.

I mean, it's an interesting article... here's my take on it:

1. MPs vote for a deal

There seems to be no majority for anything in the Commons. But yes, if "a deal" means "the deal we call WA", this would be the most feasible option. Unfortunately, the Commons can't even agree on that, because half of the people still think they can pick and choose which deal they want. This wastes time and resources on a moot debate in the Commons with moot votes on motions that lead nowhere. It is, quite possibly, the most obvious example of "blind actionism" that I have seen in contemporary politics.

2. The EU extends Article 50

Not a very likely option, given that the UK technically had two extensions already. But even if you ignore the first mini-extension, there is no tangible progress in England (and yes, I mean England specifically). Since that was the condition for the extension the UK is already in, there is no reason why further extensions should be granted.

3. MPs vote to block no-deal

Did that a number of times. Will not have an effect if they continue to do so. It's really just lip-service.

4. What if Johnson is no longer prime minister?

Is there any indication of this happening? Not as far as I can see. Oh, there is lots of hopeful speculation, but nothing tangible.

5. What would Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn do?

Fuck knows what he would do. So far, he seems to be happy to encourage the Tories to drive the car against the wall and see what sticks. I don't trust him. He is no opposition leader. He doesn't have the balls to make any kind of meaningful decision, that much seems clear by now.

[ranzino]

2. is also not feasible, if nobody's there to ask EU for it. and it requires every EU27 onboard, one veto and it's dead.

4. what if he loses his already miniscule +1 majority ? technically he is not longer ''commanding a majority'' which was a prerequisite for the office he was appointed for. QE2 pulls the plug ?

[dribbles]

In fairness, though, there seem to different opinions on this:

E.g., https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...ef=uk-homepage



Which assumes that conferences won't happen and that parliament will be sitting on September 18.

I mean, yes, IDD with you: it's a complete mess. But the outcome isn't certain yet.

But I would be interested to hear Cummings' rationale for there being no time now. It must just be - conferences will go ahead as usual? What a joke.

Nonsense article.

Unless you believe a national unity government with a majority could form around comrade "the brexiteer" Corbyn following a VONC. LOL no chance, but good luck with that.

And don't forget after a VONC it is the incumbent PM, that's Boris, who chooses the date of the next election.

It won't be before November, don't believe me but believe the Tory party chairman, James Cleverly, who said the exact same today. Clever by name clever by nature...

[Slant]

2. is also not feasible, if nobody's there to ask EU for it. and it requires every EU27 onboard, one veto and it's dead.

4. what if he loses his already miniscule +1 majority ? technically he is not longer ''commanding a majority'' which was a prerequisite for the office he was appointed for. QE2 pulls the plug ?

I believe the British can technically have minority Governments. They'd just have to do what we do and... *shudder* form coalitons based on *groan* consens.

[Northern Goblin]

And don't forget after a VONC it is the incumbent PM, that's Boris, who chooses the date of the next election.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-46890481

A general election is 7 weeks after the VONC, with government having those first two weeks to attempt to regain a VOC, after that it's campaigning season.

So when Parliament reconvenes on the 4th (thank you NI bill) that gives us a 7 week gap which ends on the 23rd of October as GE day, a healthy 8 days before the deadline.

[dribbles]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-46890481

A general election is 7 weeks after the VONC, with government having those first two weeks to attempt to regain a VOC, after that it's campaigning season.

So when Parliament reconvenes on the 4th (thank you NI bill) that gives us a 7 week gap which ends on the 23rd of October as GE day, a healthy 8 days before the deadline.

Well the BBC are arguing with themselves then...

Boris Johnson would have to advise the Queen when the election would happen.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49004486

But I believe convention has it that the incumbent PM has to call it as soon as is reasonably practicable. Reasonably that means November.