View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. You may not vote on this poll
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #19101
    Quote Originally Posted by zealo View Post
    I wouldn't be so sure of that. They rejected every single option on the table when they got to vote on it, and there hasn't been much signs the situation will change since.
    They got a bill through Parliament in less than a week to force the PM to request another extension and prevent a no-deal exit back in April though.

  2. #19102
    Quote Originally Posted by Butler to Baby Sloths View Post
    They got a bill through Parliament in less than a week to force the PM to request another extension and prevent a no-deal exit back in April though.
    And that was when it was still theoretically three possible outcomes and a lot of political manoevering. If it comes down to a straight vote to choose between no-deal and cancelling Article 50, it won't even be close. I would be amazed if it were less than 100 majority in favour of stopping Brexit in that instance. It could easily be a lot higher.

    Dribbles sees all this as good news, because it will force the issue. I don't know why he ignores the Parliamentary maths around this; maybe he prefers to stay ignorantly happy in his little Brexit bubble with all the unicorns?

    Like a dinosaur, his Brexit is already dead. The confirmation of this just hasn't made its way up to the tiny pea-brain at the other end of the body.
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.

    Quote Originally Posted by George Carlin
    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
    Brexophilia: The act of rubbing yourself against dead political ideas for sexual pleasure.

  3. #19103
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    And that was when it was still theoretically three possible outcomes and a lot of political manoevering. If it comes down to a straight vote to choose between no-deal and cancelling Article 50, it won't even be close. I would be amazed if it were less than 100 majority in favour of stopping Brexit in that instance. It could easily be a lot higher.

    Dribbles sees all this as good news, because it will force the issue. I don't know why he ignores the Parliamentary maths around this; maybe he prefers to stay ignorantly happy in his little Brexit bubble with all the unicorns?

    Like a dinosaur, his Brexit is already dead. The confirmation of this just hasn't made its way up to the tiny pea-brain at the other end of the body.
    Alternative Parliamentary Maths says there is a majority in the Commons for it :P

  4. #19104
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    And that was when it was still theoretically three possible outcomes and a lot of political manoevering. If it comes down to a straight vote to choose between no-deal and cancelling Article 50, it won't even be close. I would be amazed if it were less than 100 majority in favour of stopping Brexit in that instance. It could easily be a lot higher.

    Dribbles sees all this as good news, because it will force the issue. I don't know why he ignores the Parliamentary maths around this; maybe he prefers to stay ignorantly happy in his little Brexit bubble with all the unicorns?

    Like a dinosaur, his Brexit is already dead. The confirmation of this just hasn't made its way up to the tiny pea-brain at the other end of the body.
    Nope, she has to go now, I can't say it enough times.

    Then,

    1. Boris Johnson coronation.
    2. General Election as poor Boris no longer has a majority in the House.
    3. Labour and Tory leave voting marginals elect Brexit party MP's kicking out current remainer incumbents that have betrayed their electorate.
    4. Tories align with 50 ish Farage BXP MP's to form a government.
    5. Bye Bye EU

    You read it here first, remember that, you can thank me later.

  5. #19105
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    3. Labour and Tory leave voting marginals elect Brexit party MP's kicking out current remainer incumbents that have betrayed their electorate.
    Which are the 50 ish constituencies where the Brexit Party stands a chance to get the majority of votes?
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before.

    A bunch of times actually.

  6. #19106
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Nope, she has to go now, I can't say it enough times.

    Then,

    1. Boris Johnson coronation.
    2. General Election as poor Boris no longer has a majority in the House.
    3. Labour and Tory leave voting marginals elect Brexit party MP's kicking out current remainer incumbents that have betrayed their electorate.
    4. Tories align with 50 ish Farage BXP MP's to form a government.
    5. Bye Bye EU

    You read it here first, remember that, you can thank me later.
    We still need to thank you for your entirely correct prediction of a crash out Brexit on March 20th.

  7. #19107
    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    We still need to thank you for your entirely correct prediction of a crash out Brexit on March 20th.
    Yeah, but the worrying thing is that I really don't see that scenario as being completely implausible.

    But - it will be at that point that I start throwing milkshakes.

  8. #19108
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Nope, she has to go now, I can't say it enough times.

    Then,

    1. Boris Johnson coronation.
    2. General Election as poor Boris no longer has a majority in the House.
    3. Labour and Tory leave voting marginals elect Brexit party MP's kicking out current remainer incumbents that have betrayed their electorate.
    4. Tories align with 50 ish Farage BXP MP's to form a government.
    5. Bye Bye EU

    You read it here first, remember that, you can thank me later.
    Elect Brexit MPs? That's a bit optimistic, bearing in mind that they currently have literally 1 thing in their manifesto. They might get away with that going into the EU elections, but you can see from the polls already that their support more than halves if it comes to a GE. So they are not only going to have to come up with some actual stances to take on other things (which will drive voters away) they are also going to have to raise money to run in a GE while under VERY close scrutiny from the Electoral Commission (which Farage said today he wants to get rid of....I wonder why?)

    And that's ignoring the fact that the Brexit party, once it starts to take other positions, is going to be in more danger of fracturing than any other party. Where do they stand on private v public ownership? Bank reform? Education? They will have to pick positions on all of them, and the chances of the disparate supporters all being happy to ignore the other shit they come up with just to continue to support Brexit is going to be pretty slim.

    They are going to get a third of the votes in the EU election. If they can keep the party from falling apart for a GE, they MIGHT get 10-15%. But since the likelyhood is that they will stand on a manifesto that sits to the right of the Tories, most of those votes are going to come from the Tories. Leaving Labour and the centre parties to form a majority in any Parliament that results. And that's assuming that the Tories allow a GE to happen. If as expected it is that damaging to them, they will probably want to delay it as much as possible, especially if the fallout from cancelling Article 50 is bad for them.

    Any way you slice it, it really isn't simple. And it really isn't good for your people. A new leader won't save it. A GE won't save it. Dream all you like, it's almost over now. And from your point of view the ending is going to be more disappointing than GoT.
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.

    Quote Originally Posted by George Carlin
    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
    Brexophilia: The act of rubbing yourself against dead political ideas for sexual pleasure.

  9. #19109
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    Elect Brexit MPs? That's a bit optimistic, bearing in mind that they currently have literally 1 thing in their manifesto. They might get away with that going into the EU elections, but you can see from the polls already that their support more than halves if it comes to a GE....<SNIP>
    That's a no too. It is very very simple...



    Compared to EU election polling...



    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-...14th-may-2019/

    Halved you say? Dozens of BXP seats in a general election, holding the balance of power, are entirely possible. It is not just me saying it and the pollsters confirm it.

  10. #19110
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    That's a no too. It is very very simple...



    Compared to EU election polling...



    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-...14th-may-2019/

    Halved you say? Dozens of BXP seats in a general election, holding the balance of power, are entirely possible. It is not just me saying it and the pollsters confirm it.
    And as I said...that's with no manifesto. The second this joke of a one-trick party starts to make policy decisions that go beyond "do Brexit and magic will happen" that number will start dropping. And judging from the kind of people involved in the party, the policy decisions they make are going to be stupid, dangerous and unworkable. And probably fascist. I stand by my view that you will be lucky to get 10-15% in a GE once those policy decisions are made. Assuming that they don't do anything stupid with their funding that gets them banned from the election entirely. I rate that at about a 50-50 chance.

    And even if they did hold a "balance of power", what does that mean? That other parties would side with them in going for a no-deal Brexit that would take them down with the Brexit party? It would be Brexit party and whatever is left of the ERG on one side, and everyone else on the other. Even if your numbers held up that won't give you enough to get what you want. It just isn't going to happen.

    Let it go dribbles. It's the only way you can ever hope to recover your sanity.

    [Edit] I thought those numbers for the GE looked a bit off. Picked pretty much the only outlier poll that showed Brexit that high, eh? More dishonesty from a rank dishonest poster. Apart from that Opinium poll, most of the rest of the recent polls show them around 18%. Which is about half, as I said. It would be nice to have an honest discussion with you for once, but you just can't manage that, can you?
    Last edited by Huehuecoyotl; 2019-05-21 at 10:07 PM.
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.

    Quote Originally Posted by George Carlin
    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
    Brexophilia: The act of rubbing yourself against dead political ideas for sexual pleasure.

  11. #19111
    https://storage.googleapis.com/d4e-m...l_9tWXv95tOHnM

    New tool to help you vote tactically

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    That's a no too. It is very very simple...



    Compared to EU election polling...



    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-...14th-may-2019/

    Halved you say? Dozens of BXP seats in a general election, holding the balance of power, are entirely possible. It is not just me saying it and the pollsters confirm it.
    Or since it's been shown that many brexit party are taking votes from the tories it's splitting their vote enough to help Labour and Lib Dems in Tory held areas. Instead of being kingmakers, they're going to basically allow Labour to sneak in it seems. FPTP going against you in this one.

  12. #19112
    Given the current HoC and their comprehensive abilities when it comes to fucking up and procrastinating beyond all reason, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the UK faceplant out of the EU without a deal.

    Not that there can be any real doubt that what Huehuecoyotl is saying is the reasonable outcome.

  13. #19113
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    That's a no too. It is very very simple...



    Compared to EU election polling...



    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-...14th-may-2019/

    Halved you say? Dozens of BXP seats in a general election, holding the balance of power, are entirely possible. It is not just me saying it and the pollsters confirm it.
    As Kallisto said, what will actually happen is Labour, SNP and Lib Dems winning previously Tory-held seats due to how FPTP works (Tory vote splits between Tories and BP giving the other parties the numbers they need to take the seats). Then you'll have a Lib-Dem/Labour government that will pass a law on day 1 creating a "no deal, or no brexit" referendum. Or they'll pass a law cancelling Brexit. One of those two, anyway. It'd be passed with a safe majority too, because the SNP doesn't want the UK to leave the EU either.
    Last edited by Butler to Baby Sloths; 2019-05-21 at 11:14 PM.

  14. #19114
    The Grauniad put up an article earlier saying that May was willing to make the compromises needed to get the WA through Parliament but low and behold Brexiteers in the Cabinet fucked it up.

    You still have to question May's sanity though, if you can get Grayling to resign and you don't take that option do you have any business being in charge of anything? Brexit has obviously frazzled her, Bez from the Happy Mondays is probably rocking more functioning brain cells at this point.

  15. #19115
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    And as I said...that's with no manifesto. The second this joke of a one-trick party starts to make policy decisions that go beyond "do Brexit and magic will happen" that number will start dropping. And judging from the kind of people involved in the party, the policy decisions they make are going to be stupid, dangerous and unworkable. And probably fascist. I stand by my view that you will be lucky to get 10-15% in a GE once those policy decisions are made. Assuming that they don't do anything stupid with their funding that gets them banned from the election entirely. I rate that at about a 50-50 chance.

    And even if they did hold a "balance of power", what does that mean? That other parties would side with them in going for a no-deal Brexit that would take them down with the Brexit party? It would be Brexit party and whatever is left of the ERG on one side, and everyone else on the other. Even if your numbers held up that won't give you enough to get what you want. It just isn't going to happen.

    Let it go dribbles. It's the only way you can ever hope to recover your sanity.

    [Edit] I thought those numbers for the GE looked a bit off. Picked pretty much the only outlier poll that showed Brexit that high, eh? More dishonesty from a rank dishonest poster. Apart from that Opinium poll, most of the rest of the recent polls show them around 18%. Which is about half, as I said. It would be nice to have an honest discussion with you for once, but you just can't manage that, can you?
    I fear you are clutching at remain unicorns. That poll I linked is quite pessimistic, being a week old, from a Brexit party POV as you can see from the final, again pessimistic, yougov poll released a couple of hours ago prior to tomorrows vote which was sampled before mad Theresa offered a 2nd referendum.

    Final YouGov / Times European Election poll

    - Brexit party on 37%
    - Tories 5th in 7%
    - Labour now comfortably 6 points behind the Lib Dems

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/s...72569413267457

    Looks like you can add +5% for the BXP to what that gloomy opinium week old poll predicts...still think a party manifesto in this brave new world is critical to getting elected? After all, the Tory party have broken every single one of their 2017 pledges.

  16. #19116
    Just leaving this here, because it's too brilliant not to share:

    https://twitter.com/davemacladd/stat...442017287?s=09

    This is a Brexiteer and a Brexiteer MP getting in a row over who's more stupid. I shit you not.
    Users with <20 posts and ignored shitposters are automatically invisible. Find out how to do that here and help clean up MMO-OT!
    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
    PSA: Being a volunteer is no excuse to make a shite job of it.

  17. #19117
    Quote Originally Posted by Kallisto View Post
    https://storage.googleapis.com/d4e-m...l_9tWXv95tOHnM

    New tool to help you vote tactically
    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-a...n-voting-guide is also a decent resource.

  18. #19118
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Halved you say? Dozens of BXP seats in a general election, holding the balance of power, are entirely possible. It is not just me saying it and the pollsters confirm it.
    24% in opinion polls does not translate to 24% of the seats. In fact, in a FPTP system, it may translate to zero.

  19. #19119
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flarelaine View Post
    24% in opinion polls does not translate to 24% of the seats. In fact, in a FPTP system, it may translate to zero.
    And he's glad about that because, in his opinion, the brexit party people are extremists.
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before.

    A bunch of times actually.

  20. #19120
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    And he's glad about that because, in his opinion, the brexit party people are extremists.
    Well considering he pretends he's now a Brexit Party canvasser then you can only assume they thinks they are "moderates" like himself.

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