View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. You may not vote on this poll
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #19101
    https://storage.googleapis.com/d4e-m...l_9tWXv95tOHnM

    New tool to help you vote tactically

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    That's a no too. It is very very simple...



    Compared to EU election polling...



    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-...14th-may-2019/

    Halved you say? Dozens of BXP seats in a general election, holding the balance of power, are entirely possible. It is not just me saying it and the pollsters confirm it.
    Or since it's been shown that many brexit party are taking votes from the tories it's splitting their vote enough to help Labour and Lib Dems in Tory held areas. Instead of being kingmakers, they're going to basically allow Labour to sneak in it seems. FPTP going against you in this one.

  2. #19102
    Given the current HoC and their comprehensive abilities when it comes to fucking up and procrastinating beyond all reason, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the UK faceplant out of the EU without a deal.

    Not that there can be any real doubt that what Huehuecoyotl is saying is the reasonable outcome.

  3. #19103
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    That's a no too. It is very very simple...



    Compared to EU election polling...



    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-...14th-may-2019/

    Halved you say? Dozens of BXP seats in a general election, holding the balance of power, are entirely possible. It is not just me saying it and the pollsters confirm it.
    As Kallisto said, what will actually happen is Labour, SNP and Lib Dems winning previously Tory-held seats due to how FPTP works (Tory vote splits between Tories and BP giving the other parties the numbers they need to take the seats). Then you'll have a Lib-Dem/Labour government that will pass a law on day 1 creating a "no deal, or no brexit" referendum. Or they'll pass a law cancelling Brexit. One of those two, anyway. It'd be passed with a safe majority too, because the SNP doesn't want the UK to leave the EU either.
    Last edited by Butler to Baby Sloths; 2019-05-21 at 11:14 PM.

  4. #19104
    The Grauniad put up an article earlier saying that May was willing to make the compromises needed to get the WA through Parliament but low and behold Brexiteers in the Cabinet fucked it up.

    You still have to question May's sanity though, if you can get Grayling to resign and you don't take that option do you have any business being in charge of anything? Brexit has obviously frazzled her, Bez from the Happy Mondays is probably rocking more functioning brain cells at this point.

  5. #19105
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    And as I said...that's with no manifesto. The second this joke of a one-trick party starts to make policy decisions that go beyond "do Brexit and magic will happen" that number will start dropping. And judging from the kind of people involved in the party, the policy decisions they make are going to be stupid, dangerous and unworkable. And probably fascist. I stand by my view that you will be lucky to get 10-15% in a GE once those policy decisions are made. Assuming that they don't do anything stupid with their funding that gets them banned from the election entirely. I rate that at about a 50-50 chance.

    And even if they did hold a "balance of power", what does that mean? That other parties would side with them in going for a no-deal Brexit that would take them down with the Brexit party? It would be Brexit party and whatever is left of the ERG on one side, and everyone else on the other. Even if your numbers held up that won't give you enough to get what you want. It just isn't going to happen.

    Let it go dribbles. It's the only way you can ever hope to recover your sanity.

    [Edit] I thought those numbers for the GE looked a bit off. Picked pretty much the only outlier poll that showed Brexit that high, eh? More dishonesty from a rank dishonest poster. Apart from that Opinium poll, most of the rest of the recent polls show them around 18%. Which is about half, as I said. It would be nice to have an honest discussion with you for once, but you just can't manage that, can you?
    I fear you are clutching at remain unicorns. That poll I linked is quite pessimistic, being a week old, from a Brexit party POV as you can see from the final, again pessimistic, yougov poll released a couple of hours ago prior to tomorrows vote which was sampled before mad Theresa offered a 2nd referendum.

    Final YouGov / Times European Election poll

    - Brexit party on 37%
    - Tories 5th in 7%
    - Labour now comfortably 6 points behind the Lib Dems

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/s...72569413267457

    Looks like you can add +5% for the BXP to what that gloomy opinium week old poll predicts...still think a party manifesto in this brave new world is critical to getting elected? After all, the Tory party have broken every single one of their 2017 pledges.

  6. #19106
    Just leaving this here, because it's too brilliant not to share:

    https://twitter.com/davemacladd/stat...442017287?s=09

    This is a Brexiteer and a Brexiteer MP getting in a row over who's more stupid. I shit you not.
    Users with <20 posts and ignored shitposters are automatically invisible. Find out how to do that here and help clean up MMO-OT!
    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
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  7. #19107
    Quote Originally Posted by Kallisto View Post
    https://storage.googleapis.com/d4e-m...l_9tWXv95tOHnM

    New tool to help you vote tactically
    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-a...n-voting-guide is also a decent resource.

  8. #19108
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Halved you say? Dozens of BXP seats in a general election, holding the balance of power, are entirely possible. It is not just me saying it and the pollsters confirm it.
    24% in opinion polls does not translate to 24% of the seats. In fact, in a FPTP system, it may translate to zero.

  9. #19109
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flarelaine View Post
    24% in opinion polls does not translate to 24% of the seats. In fact, in a FPTP system, it may translate to zero.
    And he's glad about that because, in his opinion, the brexit party people are extremists.
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before.

    A bunch of times actually.

  10. #19110
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    And he's glad about that because, in his opinion, the brexit party people are extremists.
    Well considering he pretends he's now a Brexit Party canvasser then you can only assume they thinks they are "moderates" like himself.

  11. #19111
    Quote Originally Posted by Flarelaine View Post
    24% in opinion polls does not translate to 24% of the seats. In fact, in a FPTP system, it may translate to zero.
    And it isn't even 24%. That was the high outlier from recent polls. There have been others since putting them at ~18% which is where they are on a combined poll of polls. Just dribbles being misleading, as usual. Hell there were some polls put them as low as 10% fairly recently.

    And as soon as they start to pick policies, that number will go down. Especially as their far right tendencies start to leak out.
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.

    Quote Originally Posted by George Carlin
    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
    Brexophilia: The act of rubbing yourself against dead political ideas for sexual pleasure.

  12. #19112
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    And it isn't even 24%. That was the high outlier from recent polls. There have been others since putting them at ~18% which is where they are on a combined poll of polls. Just dribbles being misleading, as usual. Hell there were some polls put them as low as 10% fairly recently.

    And as soon as they start to pick policies, that number will go down. Especially as their far right tendencies start to leak out.
    "Leak"? They aren't exactly subtle.

    And I went with his number because even that is no guarantee. For 24% to carry an FPTP seat, votes would have to be fragmented at least 5 ways in an even spread. Don't see that happening.

  13. #19113

  14. #19114
    Quote Originally Posted by Dizzeeyooo View Post
    The 2016 Express article aged well.

    As did the tweet
    Well, don't see how closure of one (or perhaps two) plants that already had problems in 2016 refutes his argument.

  15. #19115
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    Just leaving this here, because it's too brilliant not to share:

    https://twitter.com/davemacladd/stat...442017287?s=09

    This is a Brexiteer and a Brexiteer MP getting in a row over who's more stupid. I shit you not.
    That was magical.
    Often updated... ?

  16. #19116
    Quote Originally Posted by Dizzeeyooo View Post
    The 2016 Express article aged well.


    As did the tweet
    The thing is, the only thing that would save that industry would be for the UK to be in the EU but with no say, given they vetoed the EU's plan of action against Chinese steel dumping. It really is much too late now.

  17. #19117
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    The thing is, the only thing that would save that industry would be for the UK to be in the EU but with no say, given they vetoed the EU's plan of action against Chinese steel dumping. It really is much too late now.
    In the long long long long term then possibly - the reason that the company is collapsing right now is entirely down to Brexit uncertainty and the weakened pound (because of Brexit).

    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Well, don't see how closure of one (or perhaps two) plants that already had problems in 2016 refutes his argument.
    His argument or your argument?
    Last edited by Dizzeeyooo; 2019-05-22 at 01:42 PM.

  18. #19118
    Quote Originally Posted by Dizzeeyooo View Post
    His argument or your argument?
    I'm not seeing what your argument is there.

    Quoting from article you linked in 2016:
    Mr Farage was asked if a Brexit vote on June 23 would help save the huge Tata-owned steel plant in Port Talbot, South Wales, and secure the future of the industry across the UK.
    He said: “We can give you a chance. We can give you a fighting chance”.
    Mr Farage said leaving the EU would allow Britain to make energy costs more competitive and offer greater protection against China’s dumping of cheap steel on international markets.
    He also hit out at EU procurement laws, adding: “Whether we are building a warship or whatever it is, under EU rules we have to tender this out to German companies and French companies as well.
    "So yeah: Could we give the British steel industry a chance? Yes.
    "If we vote to Remain on June 23 it is the end of the steel industry in this country. Simple as that."


    Well, first, you still haven't left, so no mentioned (potential) benefits from that, and second, it was still just a chance, not certainty.

  19. #19119
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    I'm not seeing what your argument is there.
    My point was I'm not convinced that you and Dribbles are separate people.

  20. #19120
    Quote Originally Posted by Dizzeeyooo View Post
    My point was I'm not convinced that you and Dribbles are separate people.
    And neither i am convinced that you and dribbles aren't the same man too.

    That has nothing to do with your attempt at mocking Farage though.

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