View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
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  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #19421
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    But really the disappointment with the UK EU elections is the low, low turnout (while turnout increased throughout the EU).
    People generally just don't give a shit about EU elections, tbh. They never have. Might be a few more people interested this year because politics is a bit more in people's minds with Trump and Brexit and all that shit taking brain space. But, overall, the country couldn't care less.
    Often updated... ?

  2. #19422
    Moderator Northern Goblin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    The traditional center-left and center-right blocs lost,
    The Liberal Democrats send their regards.

  3. #19423
    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Goblin View Post
    The Liberal Democrats send their regards.
    It's about time. Labour sold out under Blair and the UK needs a kick in the pants from the left.

    No, not you Jezza. Get back under your bridge.

  4. #19424
    Over 9000! ringpriest's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    I wrote about this way, way long ago. This isn't about nukes. It's not about anything military specifically. It's about the entire menu of tools that this, or any country, has in order to influence global affairs. Military stuff is one tool (and an increasingly important one in the new era we're in). A well staffed, well funded, professional foreign service/diplomatic corps is another. An expansive and empowered trade office is a third. Foreign aid is a fourth. Countires have different names for these things.

    My entire point of even bringing it up is to point out how illogical UK behavior is, beyond the obvious. Brexit would make a kind of sense (still a terrible kind of sense) if the UK pivoted to massive investment in all the things I listed above. You know... doubling the size of the military and foreign office. Quintupling foreign aid. Nailing two big bilateral trade deals by the end of 2019. If it was gonna leave, it has to go big.

    Instead the opposite is likely to happen. The budget will get squeezed further, and the UK won't raise taxes. So out goes another 20,000 troops, 10 ships and 30 aircraft. Out goes another 500 diplomats. Out goes twenty consulates, which will be shuttered and some of the staff sent to embassies. These are variations of things the UK has done since 2008.

    Like this is mindboggling. National suicide is quite right. Is it really their wish to be 60 million people with a NHS and a giant moat around them? Are they going to be the healthcared hermit nation? I mean, if so fine... that's their right... but the pretense that Brexiters offer that a Brexited UK will be a liberated, empowered UK is entirely ridiculous without levels of investment they're not even close to giving.

    That's why staying in the EU has been the only decision that has ever made sense from the angle of foreign relations and UK global power. Besides the fact that being the US's man inside the EU made it invaluable to us, plainly, the UK wasn't and isn't ready to spend to offset what not having the EU entails, and EU is a something (a very good something) that is a lot better than a nothing.

    The only word that comes to mind here is "pointless".
    Oh, there's actually a point to Brexit, although it's not any of the ones that seem to commonly get talked about - it's money, and the hyperwealthy.

    The global financial system - which is mostly (although not entirely) contiguous with the (very flawed but better than most alternatives) "Amerian Empire" has actually been cracking down lately on offshore financial havens (with the EU doing it's part as well) often via the unglamorous OECD; the process started years ago, when the more notorious Swiss banks were... persuaded that opening their books was in their own best interests. Ever since, tax-dodging high-finance has been keeping one step ahead, fleeing to Monaco and Panama and the Netherlands, then the Carribbean, and watching the slow relentless march of the regulators pacing down their trail - the only real stops left are Singapore, some European micro-states, and some of the low-population and less regulated US states.

    But Wyoming and Gurnsey don't exactly have much pull in the grand scheme of things - they've just been too inconsequential for anyone to bother with until now; the acountants will catch up, followed by the bureaucrats and politicians and eventually the law. And what then? The billionaires and the corporations that are de facto non-national soverign wealth funds because of the amount of liquidity they're sitting on need to flee (or need their money and accounting to flee somewhere.

    If only there was somewhere to go.. an island nation would be nice, but not a tiny one, oh no - it needs to be big enough to support a real, globally connected financial sector, but be independent enough not to be pushed around, and preferably have enough geopolitical heft that it can't be steamrolled by the EU, US, or OECD, and a military to back all that up, if need be (and have enough population to support all that) and as a bonus provide an acceptable place for the hyper-wealth individuals to reside, and the nascent megacorps to set up offices is desirable, too.

    And look, here's Britain, and The City of London; why, it's perfect for all that - and it even has a UN Security Council veto and a nuclear deterrent! What more could a banker (to use the term a little broadly) to the hyperwealthy possibly want? There's just two problems with Britain - it's part of the EU (and thus vulnerable to all those relentless EU regulations and bureaucrats who want to collect taxes to pay for things like having a functioning civilization), and it has (had) a government that sometimes had impulses to act in its citizen's best interests.

    Enter Brexit, a political movement whipped from fringe embers into a raging fire, that has: crippled the UK's government, deeply divided the nation, and is in the process of splitting the nation from the EU (and will incidentally likely destroy the United Kingdom as such leading to a fragmented 'former parts of the United Kingdom' that will only make the useful (to the hyper-wealthy) bits - the City, mostly, with England a distant second - even easier to hold captive), and leaving the public desperate and fragmented.

    And that is the "point" of Brexit - a tax haven with nukes and a UN veto; now, there are certainly other interests working to make it happen - the alt-right (that hates the EU), the nascent facists and would-be 21st Century Nazis, and the Russians, but while they're all putting weight behind Brexit for their own reasons, the clear motive seems to be what I've outlined above. (And before you judge, please note I'm not suggesting that this is an good plan for the hyperwealthy, just that that the controlling impulses seem clear.)
    "In today’s America, conservatives who actually want to conserve are as rare as liberals who actually want to liberate. The once-significant language of an earlier era has had the meaning sucked right out of it, the better to serve as camouflage for a kleptocratic feeding frenzy in which both establishment parties participate with equal abandon" (Taking a break from the criminal, incompetent liars at the NSA, to bring you the above political observation, from The Archdruid Report.)

  5. #19425
    Quote Originally Posted by Zaydin View Post
    Okay, given I'm in the US I have no ideas how these went. I know there was a projection of anti-EU forces winning big in these elections so can someone who isn't dribbles who IS following all this give me a quick summary of what happened here?
    There were losses for the two big Pro-EU parties (Center-left and Center-right) that were almost entirely matched by gains from the Liberals and Greens. The Eurosceptic Right did win a few more seats but none of the three parties in it polled better than the Greens. The Eurosceptic Left lost a lot of seats as well.
    Keep in mind that not all of ECR (Conservative Eurosceptics) and GUE (Left-wing Eurosceptics) are Hard Eurosceptics either (many just call for reforms). The top four are all staunchly Pro-Eu Parties, and hold more than 500 out of 751 seats giving them a supermajority; all four parties were in talks already yesterday about a broad coalition.

    What can be expected is for the EU Parliament to keep on at the same pace with a few policy shifts to satisfy the Greens and Liberals (e.g. expect future trade agreements from the EU to have an environmental focus as well). The eurosceptics are too few and too fractious to matter. What WILL matter is how the EuroGroup will influence the Commission with its nominations and I will not be surprised at all if the first picks by several countries do NOT get confirmed by the Parliament.

    Also participation across the block increased by 8%

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by ringpriest View Post
    And that is the "point" of Brexit - a tax haven with nukes and a UN veto; now, there are certainly other interests working to make it happen - the alt-right (that hates the EU), the nascent facists and would-be 21st Century Nazis, and the Russians, but while they're all putting weight behind Brexit for their own reasons, the clear motive seems to be what I've outlined above. (And before you judge, please note I'm not suggesting that this is an good plan for the hyperwealthy, just that that the controlling impulses seem clear.)
    I think we've said this several times earlier in this thread; ultimately what led to panic mode and started Brexit was when the EU started really discussing further tax regulation back in 2013-4. The EU Black List has been stamping tax havens left and right around the globe and its primary fault is its own blind spot for countries within the EU (Luxemburg, Malta, Cyprus and maybe even Ireland should all have been hit by the Black List as well but good luck with that).
    And the most hilarious part is, Brexit anti-globalism in the UK is significantly fueled by their hatred for their bankers especially after the financial crisis. Amazing how often the masses manage to vote against their very own interests.

  6. #19426
    Stood in the Fire steristumpie's Avatar
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    The youtuber shitlord collective played their role brilliantly. Stayed out of the newly formed Brexit party. Disavowed any association with said Brexit party. Kept the media focused on their trolling, jokes and shitposts. Became the focus of the smear campaigns. UKIP took to the streets and shouted and screamed just as loud as the lefties did.

    Meanwhile Farage quietly and unopposed in the realm of public opinion slid in and claimed an easy effortless victory. This was masterfully planned and executed. Bravo.
    “The best way to win an argument is to begin by being right.” -Jill Ruckelshaus

  7. #19427
    Quote Originally Posted by steristumpie View Post
    The youtuber shitlord collective played their role brilliantly. Stayed out of the newly formed Brexit party. Disavowed any association with said Brexit party. Kept the media focused on their trolling, jokes and shitposts. Became the focus of the smear campaigns. UKIP took to the streets and shouted and screamed just as loud as the lefties did.

    Meanwhile Farage quietly and unopposed in the realm of public opinion slid in and claimed an easy effortless victory. This was masterfully planned and executed. Bravo.
    Farage underperformed. He ate up UKIP but it's looking like he hasn't done aswell as expected amongst Conservative and Labour voters.

    Don't get me wrong, the Brexit Party has done well but they haven't surprised anyone. They got 32% of the vote, we already knew that around a third of the country were Brexiteers so nothing has changed there. What has changed is that the vote share for parties trying to leave with a deal has collapsed, shifting the narrative to Revoke Vs WTO in a second referendum.

    All in all it was a much better night for Remain than it was for Leave no matter how many headlines you read today about a Farage victory.

  8. #19428
    Quote Originally Posted by steristumpie View Post
    The youtuber shitlord collective played their role brilliantly. Stayed out of the newly formed Brexit party. Disavowed any association with said Brexit party. Kept the media focused on their trolling, jokes and shitposts. Became the focus of the smear campaigns. UKIP took to the streets and shouted and screamed just as loud as the lefties did.

    Meanwhile Farage quietly and unopposed in the realm of public opinion slid in and claimed an easy effortless victory. This was masterfully planned and executed. Bravo.
    Brexit Party has polled below LibDem+Greens. I just don't see it as much of a victory. Greens are staunchly pro-EU.

  9. #19429

  10. #19430
    Quote Originally Posted by Kronik85 View Post
    So it looks like Labour might have finally got the message.

    McDonnell backing a public vote is huge.
    The issue is, can they force an election in any way? I assume they can wait for BoJo to be made PM and then go for a vote of no confidence and dare Tory remainers to choose.

  11. #19431
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    The issue is, can they force an election in any way? I assume they can wait for BoJo to be made PM and then go for a vote of no confidence and dare Tory remainers to choose.
    The Tory MPs are already saying that they will take drastic action if anyone gets the Tory leadership and tries to force through a no-deal Brexit. That means voting against them in a no-confidence vote, and they only need a handful to do that and the government falls.

    You then get a general election with the Tories and Brexit party both standing for a no-deal, which should split the vote nicely. Labour will probably come out officially as a party of a second vote, and shore up their vote that way. Libs, Greens and Change UK will gather together a good set of votes, mainly from the centrist Tories that don't feel at home in their party anymore. But some from Labour as well, where people might not trust the message they put out (or it's still messy enough that they don't know what it is).

    Chances are nobody gets a majority, and you end up with a coalition of centrist parties and Labour. They come together on the basis of a second vote, and hopefully a move away from FPTP at the same time. Remain wins the second vote, Farage and dribbles call it a traitorous act and start ranting and raving. Nobody cares. In 5 years time we wonder how we ever got ourselves in this mess.
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.

    Quote Originally Posted by George Carlin
    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
    Brexophilia: The act of rubbing yourself against dead political ideas for sexual pleasure.

  12. #19432
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    The issue is, can they force an election in any way? I assume they can wait for BoJo to be made PM and then go for a vote of no confidence and dare Tory remainers to choose.
    It doesn't matter anyway, his office just clarified he was speaking in Labours Double Speak so he meant a GE whilst hoping people like me who haven't had any coffee yet and barely any sleep might mistake him for saying second ref.

    That aside I think what you outline is the only way to get a GE unless BoJo wants to pull a May, but you know, this time it will work because he's BoJo and she wasn't and he really is so monumentally arrogant to think that way

  13. #19433
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    The Tory MPs are already saying that they will take drastic action if anyone gets the Tory leadership and tries to force through a no-deal Brexit. That means voting against them in a no-confidence vote, and they only need a handful to do that and the government falls.
    Here is the thing. BoJo or whoever wins can just go through the motions of negotiation. No Deal after all is not an active choice; it is the default that happens by just kicking the can down the road until Macron tells Merkel to stuff it and votes against an extension. So I think that yes they might vote against their own party but if they do, they will only do so at the last hour.

  14. #19434
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    Here is the thing. BoJo or whoever wins can just go through the motions of negotiation. No Deal after all is not an active choice; it is the default that happens by just kicking the can down the road until Macron tells Merkel to stuff it and votes against an extension. So I think that yes they might vote against their own party but if they do, they will only do so at the last hour.
    An extension is not the default, crashing out is the default. The line is going to be "reopen negotiations or we crash out" and our spineless MPs will be sit around hoping the EU swings in to rescue them from having to make a difficult choice, then we crash out because you didn't and we never asked for the extension.

    Brexit achieved, EU blamed, life goes on.

  15. #19435
    Quote Originally Posted by Kronik85 View Post
    An extension is not the default, crashing out is the default. The line is going to be "reopen negotiations or we crash out" and our spineless MPs will be sit around hoping the EU swings in to rescue them from having to make a difficult choice, then we crash out because you didn't and we never asked for the extension.

    Brexit achieved, EU blamed, life goes on.
    Yup that's what I said. No Deal happens by default when the extension ends. Heck BoJo can make half-hearted attempts at negotiations and even ask for an extension in October which will be denied (on account of it being a sham) and can then say he "tried". Would the Tory Remainers call him on that? Unless he tries for an unequivocal act to push for No Deal such as cutting the extension short, I don't see it.

  16. #19436
    Stood in the Fire steristumpie's Avatar
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    Look. I’m not British. Or even European.

    But if I were a Brexiteer, and seeing the results of the newest election, and knowing that voter turnout was dismally low in pro-Brexit areas, I would, against my principles (since a people’s vote already happened) welcome a second referendum and put an end to this once and for all. I’m pretty confident that results will again be, not an overwhelming, but a definitive leave.
    “The best way to win an argument is to begin by being right.” -Jill Ruckelshaus

  17. #19437
    Quote Originally Posted by steristumpie View Post
    Look. I’m not British. Or even European.

    But if I were a Brexiteer, and seeing the results of the newest election, and knowing that voter turnout was dismally low in pro-Brexit areas, I would, against my principles (since a people’s vote already happened) welcome a second referendum and put an end to this once and for all. I’m pretty confident that results will again be, not an overwhelming, but a definitive leave.
    I find it hilarious how Farage is demanding a seat at the negotiating table but NOT General Elections. This tells me he knows a GE would not go his way.

  18. #19438
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    Quote Originally Posted by steristumpie View Post
    But if I were a Brexiteer, and seeing the results of the newest election, and knowing that voter turnout was dismally low in pro-Brexit areas, I would, against my principles (since a people’s vote already happened) welcome a second referendum and put an end to this once and for all. I’m pretty confident that results will again be, not an overwhelming, but a definitive leave.
    And assuming it would happen, it would change nothing without deciding what kind of Brexit it's supposed to be. Britain is fucking around for over two years and have rejected every single idea they had. Saying "we want Brexit" again doesn't magically fix that, unless they immediately go for "no deal".

  19. #19439
    Quote Originally Posted by KaPe View Post
    And assuming it would happen, it would change nothing without deciding what kind of Brexit it's supposed to be. Britain is fucking around for over two years and have rejected every single idea they had. Saying "we want Brexit" again doesn't magically fix that, unless they immediately go for "no deal".
    I half expected May to pull out a referendum between No Deal and her deal (with no Remain option).

  20. #19440
    Stood in the Fire steristumpie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    I find it hilarious how Farage is demanding a seat at the negotiating table but NOT General Elections. This tells me he knows a GE would not go his way.
    Well, for example, if a court awarded you $17 million in an inheritance dispute, and You now have a cool 17mil going into your bank account, and the losers want to appeal, wouldn’t you oppose that appeal?
    “The best way to win an argument is to begin by being right.” -Jill Ruckelshaus

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