[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[ranzino]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...rthern-ireland

interesting weekend ahead.

Ahead of three days of talks on the issue this weekend, EU officials said the British government would have to reconsider the possibility of Northern Ireland effectively staying in the customs union and single market, a position it has previously rejected.

The warning was echoed by the Northern Ireland affairs committee in Westminster, which published a report saying there was no evidence that a hi-tech alternative to a fortified border could be made to work in the time available.

....

“The only way to avoid a visible border on the island of Ireland, and to also avoid an economic border across the Irish Sea, is for the whole of the UK to stay in the customs union and the single market.”


about Dover border:

A study by Imperial College London found two extra minutes of checks could more than triple existing queues.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-border-pledge

[Deleted]

If Somalia is one extreme end then Europe is on the extreme of the other end. There is plenty of room in the middle which is what most Western countries not in Europe precisely do.

There is about 45 countries that count as 'Western' - 27 in the EU, five that want to join, and 7 that are in the EU orbit.
Make of that what you will.

UK hasn't given in on anything of significance so far which is why the longer this drags on the better it is for the UK.

Have you read the backstop option?
In any case, the UK is up on the clock not the EU.

The EU has the strongest position at the start but their position weakens as this drags on

I think you will find that the EU enjoys escalation domination with everyone upon this earth, excluding the US.

It also gives the UK greater confidence that they can actually make Brexit happen when many were unsure that it would actually work. The Brexiters were called dreamers, idealists and very optimistic. But these days the Brexiters seem to be the most realistic to economic sovereignty being returned to the UK.

Realistic?
- Just this fucking day, one of the fucktards Transport Secretary Chris Grayling Seriously suggested that the UK wasn't going to do any checks on any goods comming from the EU - In the vain hope that the EU would reciprocate and thus 'solve' the Dover and Euro-tunnel border issues.

[Mormolyce]

The Europeans had and have no choice but to support their UK paymasters.

The... f... what?

[Deleted]

The... f... what?

Slap anything on the side of a bus and Dribbles will believe it as fact.

[Kiri]

maybe this will ease your concerns then?

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/sta...86105793261568


https://news.sky.com/story/amp/brexi...unnel-11291767


amusingly, this story was confirmed by the UK Transport Secretary on TV soon afterwards -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43428802

That is only remotely feasible if the UK stays in some kind of union with the EU. If they do not, or worse, if they explicitly fall back on WTO rules, then Britain can be sued if it enforces any kind of customs border with other WTO members from their side, while said members can do it from their side.
The EU, if they are not in a free trade union, would face the same issue. In order to protect themselves from said problem, they would have to enforce the border, even if Britain is not.
This is not a new idea. All it really amounts to is the UK being able to say "look, we did not want a hard border, but the EU wants it. Look at how evil they are" to the Brexit base, who will happily believe it. Because "the EU is evil" is pretty much their paradigm.

In either event, this idea could work if the EU and UK stay in a free trade area, but that is heavily contested. Mostly because it amounts to the UK wanting to be inside said area, but not to agree to the EU's terms, due to the Brexiters. The idea only works as a solution to the Ireland issue in the case of a soft brexit. In a har Brexit, it is little more than an attempt to shift blame to the EU.

[Slant]

Rather treat his posts as the slow unraveling of a tragicomic character in an absurdist play. It gains entertainment value.

He's an acquired taste, however. At times, he totally loses all my suspense of disbelief.

[Slant]

Really, it's about building context. Dribbles would fit perfectly in an absurdist play. There are vaudeville elements, constant cliches and nonsense wordplay, a cyclical and ever expansive argumentation and a constant dismissal of realism all as a response to political turmoil and social upheaval. It's just clear tragicomedy.

Nah, someone explained it. The whole Brexiteer movement makes a lot of sense when you reverse the foundation and pretend that the EU is kicking the UK out. And all of it suddenly makes sense. All the complaining, all the defiant claims, all the bickering and whinging. Everything.

You just have to do that tiny step and pretend the EU is kicking the UK out instead of the other way around. Do it, it's funny how your perception changes.

[ranzino]

ooh, THIS is pure golden and platin

Disagreement over Brexit has split the main parliamentary committee charged with scrutinising the UK’s departure from the EU after a majority of its members concluded that the day of exit may have to be delayed.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...lect-committee

will you cancel this mountain of charade called Brexit already ? or does UK expect the EU dying from laughter now ?

[ranzino]

...

Poor Dribbles, not getting Brexit just yet:*(

UK would need the consent of everybody else to postpone their project. Or crash out with whatever is negotiated until then, which will turn out ugly for them.
Or become honest and cancel it.

[Slant]

UK would need the consent of everybody else to postpone their project. Or crash out with whatever is negotiated until then, which will turn out ugly for them.
Or become honest and cancel it.

I believe they can't just crash out with a half negotiated treaty. It's either all or nothing, isn't it?

[ranzino]

I believe they can't just crash out with a half negotiated treaty. It's either all or nothing, isn't it?

by automatism of "article 50 means 2 years" the game is over in 376 days technically and for good reasons in ~7 months (mid of october) already, because you'll need any further time for ratification and preparation. so far so good, the transition period is already a nice gem.

if UK wants to live by the good grace of EU: they are welcome, but UK will have to stop acting childish. for postponing they will not have to kiss out butts, but act more seriously.
And as long Rees-Mogg and other ppl are so adamant about "no deal is better than bad deal" UK can and will crash out. they can ruin themselves by sheer ignorance

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They will get that consent. The EU will within reason accommodate the UK.

what is the red line for EU in accommodation ? not 5 years of Brexit for sure, something will happen in march 2019.

[ranzino]

Considering that by first phase negotiations if they don't find a solution for the Irish border they default to a Norway model agreement, the EU can keep accommodating their transition for quite a long while.

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Heck even that is not guaranteed to be enough for ratification. Any single parliament might not be able to ratify in a small timeframe for local reasons.

as long as accommodation ist not a "status quo until the hell freezes" play; EU can consent IMHO. the norwegian model has consequences and UK will not like it.


as for ratification: it is indeed just a "take it or veto" approach, but national parliaments will be informed about everything between present and october and no surprises will pop into existence. AFAIK EU27 is not worried about their stance in negotiation and everything Barnier brings to the table is acceptable to them ?

[Slant]

by automatism of "article 50 means 2 years" the game is over in 376 days technically and for good reasons in ~7 months (mid of october) already, because you'll need any further time for ratification and preparation. so far so good, the transition period is already a nice gem.

if UK wants to live by the good grace of EU: they are welcome, but UK will have to stop acting childish. for postponing they will not have to kiss out butts, but act more seriously.
And as long Rees-Mogg and other ppl are so adamant about "no deal is better than bad deal" UK can and will crash out. they can ruin themselves by sheer ignorance

To be honest, if you're actually serious about leaving, you can prepare as much as you like and declare Art. 50 fully prepared. The UK is over a year in and still not prepared. This is 2 years after they had that referendum. 2 years is quite enough. The UK could get 10 years and wouldn't get shit done with all their internal bickering, the political impasse that they sport and the logical delusions that they fall into.

This is the Brexiteer movement, not all of the UK, obviously. But the UK Government pretty much acts for the Brexiteer movement and they scramble like mad to make sense of what they're asked to do. Good luck to them!

[ranzino]

To be honest, if you're actually serious about leaving, you can prepare as much as you like and declare Art. 50 fully prepared. The UK is over a year in and still not prepared. This is 2 years after they had that referendum. 2 years is quite enough. The UK could get 10 years and wouldn't get shit done with all their internal bickering, the political impasse that they sport and the logical delusions that they fall into.

This is the Brexiteer movement, not all of the UK, obviously. But the UK Government pretty much acts for the Brexiteer movement and they scramble like mad to make sense of what they're asked to do. Good luck to them!

it may sound morbid, but perhaps they know it and are just fishing for more reasons to call it off ?

"Boooo, 2 years are such a short time, EU is so mean with Art 50 and its death line !! Now we are forced to stay in EU !!"

[ranzino]

That's not going to happen.

so what ? they are really running like lemmings to their downfall ?

[Deleted]

I mean listening to the hard Brexiteers among the Tories, they are not going to give in. It's not like something will change between now and a year from now, the data will remain the same. At worst a few more companies will move people outside the UK. The real damage will only happen after Brexit and it will not be catastrophic, it will just mean that the UK will be less than it could. They are fine with that. I mean they are fine with a hard border in Ireland; they already said so.

Id say that a no-deal brexit would be a catastrophe.

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so what ? they are really running like lemmings to their downfall ?

The vast majority of people in Europe have no comprehension of what the EU have done, and similar bodies in other regions.
They just think that the EU derived "good's" are a natural part of life - Take the Driver's licences, the only reason a UK drivers licence is valid in the EU is because it is in the EU, yet the fact that they need a new licencing system to fix this is still something that is actively rejected.

[Orlong]

The WTO will fine the US to oblivion over this.

And we wont pay a single one.

[Deleted]

Looks like we got an additional 18 months to sort our shit out.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43456502

Still don't think it'll be long enough.

[Noradin]

I was agreeing with you, fool. :P

Don't bother. Its a reoccuring problem of Pann's.
They are nealy as funny as dribbles, but their motivations for posting in this thread seem very similar.

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EU law takes priority over national laws and the ECJ sits above the UK's Supreme Court this will, supposedly, not be the case once the UK leaves the EU. The current suggestion is that UK will no longer be subject to EU law and will be free to alter existing laws that were created by the EU as a result the ECJ will no longer be the most superior court.

This automatically rules out membership to EU agancies.

[Kiri]

Looks like we got an additional 18 months to sort our shit out.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43456502

Still don't think it'll be long enough.

Well, let's first see if May will sign it. The NI backstop will be a big deal for the Brexiteers since, while it is the logical thing to do, throws a wrench into their plans of getting all of the UK fully out of the EU.