[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Slant]

I dunno, but maybe just, maybe the EU is more than just Germany.

Yes, so please tell me, why is Greece interested in giving the UK an easy out? What's in it for them?

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Oh dear, someone's a little grumpy at today's news. https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/sta...34183068192768

Man, that dude has seriously got one of the most punchable faces on the planet.

[Triks]

So basically the plan is close enough to free movement and a customs union that hardline Brexiteers could decide to sink the government, and different enough the EU might just reject it anyway.

My guess is, if the government survives, it will get whittled down to EEA membership. We've technically Brexited and put ourselves in an objectively worse position from nearly all perspectives.

If the government collapses and we have another General Election there's absolutely zero chance of a new government forming and figuring out what the hell a Brexit is. Can we get extensions for our extension? Indefinitely?

That's what was known since Day 1. Brexit is one of those things where at the end of it nobody knows how it began, nobody is happy and everybody asks "was it worth it". On a personal level, I feel sorry for Madame May not as a politician but as a human being. She has bigger balls than me, I couldn't deal with this garbage.

[Pann]

Yes, so please tell me, why is Greece interested in giving the UK an easy out? What's in it for them?

We could look at Ireland who would in the event of no deal suffer a similar economic hit as the UK and potentially see a large part of their farming industry decimated.

But let's go with Greece. Why would Greece be interested in not boiling our bunny or as you call it giving us an easy out?

Off the top my head. First of all in recognition of the fact that Greece has benefited from UK money by virtue of the largest beneficiary from EU contributions and that by giving us the easy out (that you appear to be so against) they minimise the risk of these benefits being reduced.

Secondly an easy out would cause the least disruption to UK-Greece trade.

Thirdly a large part the Greek economy is based on tourism and it is a popular destination for UK tourists not giving the UK an easy out would likely sour sentiment towards Greece within the UK and may result in UK holiday makers seeking alternative destinations.

[Pann]

I mean No Brexit or a BINO are a dream for Farage, it means he will be politically relevant again. He probably wanted to lose the referendum so he could keep making money by campaigning.

Well he does need to top up that EU pension (that he has no intention of giving up).

[Deleted]

That's what was known since Day 1. Brexit is one of those things where at the end of it nobody knows how it began, nobody is happy and everybody asks "was it worth it". On a personal level, I feel sorry for Madame May not as a politician but as a human being. She has bigger balls than me, I couldn't deal with this garbage.

I sometimes feel the same looking at the shower of bastards she has to deal with over Europe, but you have to remember the nazi shit she pulled during her time at the Home Office. She deserves everything she gets frankly.

[Huehuecoyotl]

We could look at Ireland who would in the event of no deal suffer a similar economic hit as the UK and potentially see a large part of their farming industry decimated.

But let's go with Greece. Why would Greece be interested in not boiling our bunny or as you call it giving us an easy out?

Off the top my head. First of all in recognition of the fact that Greece has benefited from UK money by virtue of the largest beneficiary from EU contributions and that by giving us the easy out (that you appear to be so against) they minimise the risk of these benefits being reduced.

Secondly an easy out would cause the least disruption to UK-Greece trade.

Thirdly a large part the Greek economy is based on tourism and it is a popular destination for UK tourists not giving the UK an easy out would likely sour sentiment towards Greece within the UK and may result in UK holiday makers seeking alternative destinations.

The EU has been showing a united front for two years. In that time the UK has repeatedly walked back from its initial stance and softened or abandoned its red lines. What does that tell the negotiators on the EU side? That the UK are so terrified of a no-deal Brexit (regardless of what they say in public) that they are willing to do anything to avoid it. The UK are negotiating from a position of weakness, and both sides know it.

So what would happen if the EU reject the lastest offer, because it still isn't quite soft enough? Simple, the UK would make it softer. And because they would have warmed up public opinion by moving so far in that direction already, the extra couple of steps would be accepted.

May and the Tories have basically spent two years cooking the Brexit lobster, slowly turning up the heat so that the Brexit supporters never realised that Brexit was turning to mush. And the Brexit cheer-leaders were too stupid to realise what was happening (or too aware that the no-deal alternative was no alternative at all).

I would say this is getting close to check-mate in favour of the Remain camp. Because pretty soon the Brexit camp will be coming out in support of a public vote on the deal. Because they (and the Remainers) realise that once the Brexit gets soft enough, it is all downsides compared to actually staying in. So we'll get the hilarious sight of both sides supporting another referendum, and both sides campaigning to reject the deal!

[Pann]

The EU has been showing a united front for two years. In that time the UK has repeatedly walked back from its initial stance and softened or abandoned its red lines. What does that tell the negotiators on the EU side? That the UK are so terrified of a no-deal Brexit (regardless of what they say in public) that they are willing to do anything to avoid it. The UK are negotiating from a position of weakness, and both sides know it.

So what would happen if the EU reject the lastest offer, because it still isn't quite soft enough? Simple, the UK would make it softer. And because they would have warmed up public opinion by moving so far in that direction already, the extra couple of steps would be accepted.

May and the Tories have basically spent two years cooking the Brexit lobster, slowly turning up the heat so that the Brexit supporters never realised that Brexit was turning to mush. And the Brexit cheer-leaders were too stupid to realise what was happening (or too aware that the no-deal alternative was no alternative at all).

I would say this is getting close to check-mate in favour of the Remain camp. Because pretty soon the Brexit camp will be coming out in support of a public vote on the deal. Because they (and the Remainers) realise that once the Brexit gets soft enough, it is all downsides compared to actually staying in. So we'll get the hilarious sight of both sides supporting another referendum, and both sides campaigning to reject the deal!

Did you mean to reply to someone else?

[Slant]

We could look at Ireland who would in the event of no deal suffer a similar economic hit as the UK and potentially see a large part of their farming industry decimated.

But let's go with Greece. Why would Greece be interested in not boiling our bunny or as you call it giving us an easy out?

Off the top my head. First of all in recognition of the fact that Greece has benefited from UK money by virtue of the largest beneficiary from EU contributions and that by giving us the easy out (that you appear to be so against) they minimise the risk of these benefits being reduced.

Secondly an easy out would cause the least disruption to UK-Greece trade.

Thirdly a large part the Greek economy is based on tourism and it is a popular destination for UK tourists not giving the UK an easy out would likely sour sentiment towards Greece within the UK and may result in UK holiday makers seeking alternative destinations.

Ok, so the first one really means: "Because we've been nice once"
The second one is "Because we can sell them more shit and loan them more money for our profit"
And the third one is Tourism... really? What alternatives do you have? The two favourite spots for Brits to get pissed are Mallorca and Greece. You have no other place you can embarass yourself without your coworker coming to work next day and going "So, Dave... about that donkey you violated yesterday evening..."

I still don't see the incentive for Greece. What are you offering.

See, I'm not asking you personally. I'm asking the UK. Because what they want is not only a cake to have and to eat, no they want fucking whipped cream and a cherry on top as well. And what are they offering in return? That they're nice chaps and will continue to do what they've always done in the first place.

That's why this May fantasy from yesterday is going to get rejected so hard it'll hurt watching it.

[Kiri]

We could look at Ireland who would in the event of no deal suffer a similar economic hit as the UK and potentially see a large part of their farming industry decimated.

But let's go with Greece. Why would Greece be interested in not boiling our bunny or as you call it giving us an easy out?

Off the top my head. First of all in recognition of the fact that Greece has benefited from UK money by virtue of the largest beneficiary from EU contributions and that by giving us the easy out (that you appear to be so against) they minimise the risk of these benefits being reduced.

Secondly an easy out would cause the least disruption to UK-Greece trade.

Thirdly a large part the Greek economy is based on tourism and it is a popular destination for UK tourists not giving the UK an easy out would likely sour sentiment towards Greece within the UK and may result in UK holiday makers seeking alternative destinations.

Greece would also have to look at the costs associated with giving an easy out here, mostly through the lens of political economy.
Weakening freedom of movement makes Greece a less popular place for vacations, especially compared to other commonwealth nations. If it is more of a hassle to vacation in Greece, UK holiday makers will likely seek alternative destinations anyway. Let's be real here, the souring effect you talk of will be quite low in either event. Those who dislike the EU in general will still dislike it. They have a history of blaming the EU for ills that do not even stem from it. Expecting them to properly attribute Greece's goodwill to it is...questionable, to say the least.

As for EU contributions, it is actually the other way around that is riskier. The UK quite definitely wants out of making those contributions, so most deals the UK would accept will see Greece with the same kind of reduction that no deal would entail. However, Greece benefits from the strong contributors being in the EU. Giving the UK a super easy out, where they even keep a lot of the benefits without the downsides, could very well lead to more strong contributors considering that. Or to leverage an insert-country-xit for diminishing contribution and redistribution schemes.

[Pann]

Ok, so the first one really means: "Because we've been nice once"
The second one is "Because we can sell them more shit and loan them more money for our profit"
And the third one is Tourism... really? What alternatives do you have? The two favourite spots for Brits to get pissed are Mallorca and Greece. You have no other place you can embarass yourself without your coworker coming to work next day and going "So, Dave... about that donkey you violated yesterday evening..."

I still don't see the incentive for Greece. What are you offering.

See, I'm not asking you personally. I'm asking the UK. Because what they want is not only a cake to have and to eat, no they want fucking whipped cream and a cherry on top as well. And what are they offering in return? That they're nice chaps and will continue to do what they've always done in the first place.

That's why this May fantasy from yesterday is going to get rejected so hard it'll hurt watching it.

We've been nice more than once but whatever. I've given you three reasons why is would not be in Greece's interests to give us what you call an easy out but what most rational people would call acting in a mutually beneficial way.

Seriously grow up, it's really boring watching these tantrums.

[Slant]

The only thing Greece in particularly cares is being a good boy so they can still get money.

It'll pass, mate. It'll pass.

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We've been nice more than once but whatever. I've given you three reasons why is would not be in Greece's interests to give us what you call an easy out but what most rational people would call acting in a mutually beneficial way.

Seriously grow up, it's really boring watching these tantrums.

It's not a tantrum, really. I'm just wondering what the heck the UK is thinking. They keep acting like the're doing the EU favours. They're not. They can rephrase the same old things and invent new terminology, but any attack on the four pillars will get rejected. It's not even up for debate. The EU has said so time and again.

[Pann]

The only thing Greece in particularly cares is being a good boy so they can still get money.

Fair enough, which is the point I was making - it is in no-one's interests (other than Slant's it would appear) to act in manner that would be economically damaging. The softer the Brexit the less economic damage everyone suffers.

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It's not a tantrum, really. I'm just wondering what the heck the UK is thinking. They keep acting like the're doing the EU favours. They're not. They can rephrase the same old things and invent new terminology, but any attack on the four pillars will get rejected. It's not even up for debate. The EU has said so time and again.

It really is. Are we? That is news to me, perhaps it is your perception that is the problem?

We'll have to wait and see what happens.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Did you mean to reply to someone else?

No, you were explaining why you thought some of the EU countries would break ranks to offer the UK a deal. I started off explaining why I didn't think that would be the case, then went on to some more general ponderings about the situation.

[Slant]

Fair enough, which is the point I was making - it is in no-one's interests (other than Slant's it would appear) to act in manner that would be economically damaging. The softer the Brexit the less economic damage everyone suffers.

If by soft you mean the Norway model, okay. But May didn't suggest the Norway model now, did she?

[Pann]

No, you were explaining why you thought some of the EU countries would break ranks to offer the UK a deal. I started off explaining why I didn't think that would be the case, then went on to some more general ponderings about the situation.

No I was not. I did not once say that the EU would break ranks. Slant asked what was in it for Greece if they approved a soft Brexit or gave us an easy way out as he puts it I simply gave three reasons why it would benefit them to do so.

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If by soft you mean the Norway model, okay. But May didn't suggest the Norway model now, did she?

What? At present I, like the majority of people on the planet, do not know what Brexit will eventually entail. However the signs are that we are trying for the softest possible exit.

[Huehuecoyotl]

No I was not. I did not once say that the EU would break ranks. Slant asked what was in it for Greece if they approved a soft Brexit or gave us an easy way out as he puts it I simply gave three reasons why it would benefit them to do so.

So you were explaining how Greece would want to approve a way out, even as the EU are likely to stick to their guns about the 4 pillars. That sure sounds like suggesting that parts of the EU would break ranks to me. I'm pretty sure I wasn't the only one that read it that way.

[ranzino]

....

What? At present I, like the majority of people on the planet, do not know what Brexit will eventually entail. However the signs are that we are trying for the softest possible exit.

ok, serious now: what would Britain brexit from then ? being technically in EU, but have no say anymore? now that is the golden solution UK is struggling for all the time ?

[Slant]

I'll agree with Slant on this. The Four Pillars are sacrosanct to Brussels and the EU is not cracking on this. May is trying to compromise them with vague scenarios that are supposedly to be almost as good and that just won't happen.

I do disagree with him that the EU would not give the UK the Norway model or let them cancel Brexit if they desired, the EU would do it in a flash.

Never said the EU wouldn't give them Norway. Not so sure about cancelling, though. What are the circumstances? They throw the entire continent in turmoil and get to keep their rebates and special child treatment? Doubt that would be a very popular idea in Brussels. Companies have started moving personnel between countries because of this.

[Pann]

I'll agree with Slant on this. The Four Pillars are sacrosanct to Brussels and the EU is not cracking on this. May is trying to compromise them with vague scenarios that are supposedly to be almost as good and that just won't happen.

I do disagree with him that the EU would not give the UK the Norway model or let them cancel Brexit if they desired, the EU would do it in a flash.

I haven't mentioned anything about the four pillars, this is Slant's little strawman, I simply answered his question as to what might be it for Greece if they agreed to a soft Brexit.

We will have to wait and see what happens. It has been reported that May ran this idea past Merkel before the cabinet which, assuming May is not a colossal moron, then it is reasonable to believe that Merkel at least gave the idea a tentative thumps up. Or maybe Merkel laughed her out of the room and this is all a ruse for JRM's dreams to come true.

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So you were explaining how Greece would want to approve a way out, even as the EU are likely to stick to their guns about the 4 pillars. That sure sounds like suggesting that parts of the EU would break ranks to me. I'm pretty sure I wasn't the only one that read it that way.

No, try reading what is in front of you. I answered Slant's question nothing more.

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ok, serious now: what would Britain brexit from then ? being technically in EU, but have no say anymore? now that is the golden solution UK is struggling for all the time ?

Not a lot. But this is a political solution to a practical problem. Whether it will work remains to be seen.

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I'd rather they kept the special privileges Cameron negotiated (the right to opt out) so they'd stop vetoing completely reasonable things.

What you mean like condemning China's Human Rights Record? Oh, no, wait that wasn't us....

[Deleted]

ok, serious now: what would Britain brexit from then ? being technically in EU, but have no say anymore? now that is the golden solution UK is struggling for all the time ?

We'd be Brexiting from having any say in the EU at all.

Most Remainers said during the lead up to the referendum, if we're gonna end up with any sort of deal, it'll likely be a Norway style deal, which will leave us still bound by the same regulations, still forced to accept freedom of movement, still paying membership fees (possibly more than we were previously paying), but with no political power in the EU at all.