[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Mormolyce]

Seems like Thunder triggered Sargon again lol.

I love the idea that May's fucking up Brexit because she's a Remainder. LOL.

I'd love to see his non-"spineless" plan.

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But Pann - it isn't just post-Brexit: it's the here and now.

My other half was made redundant from her job late last year (vaguely construction/design). This was a direct result of economic uncertainty in the city, cancelled contracts & a small amount of non-payerss. I posted this here.

https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...4#post47953224

Exactly the same thing happened in 2008. Exactly the same thing. Her's was one of the very first industries to be affected by the economic downturn.

My point being is this: what sort of economic hit do you think people are going to accept so as to allow racist baby boomers the security of not having to talk to 'foreign' people?

There's a certain amount of "well, collateral damage is fine if we achieve the end result" - I can assure you, if you're on the receiving end, it isn't fine.

I linked one study above re. effect on GDP. Literally, I can link hundreds more. But there's no point. It all comes down to whether or not you're *insulated* from the economic shock or not.

I wonder how much those old farts will enjoy the price hikes if the US gets access to the NHS.

But they'll probably just blame the Poles somehow, cause and effect isn't really their strong suit.

[Noradin]

is that even possible?

Begging? But of course that is possible, but there is not much time left.
The EU is a demoncratic institution and as such does need some time to decide how to react to such begging should it occur.

[Noradin]

Enjoy your gin, made in England I hope, where else after all.

Personally I perfer the the German one, but I guess English gin is not that bad for the most part.

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The UK could always crash out of the EU and then apply for accession during the transition period

A transition period without a deal?
There is no such thing.

[Noradin]

You are right. Then just crash out and come back and ask for accession?

Would they even meet the criteria after the decade those talks might take?
And think how bad they will have to have it before they might even think about starting those talks.

[Slant]

Begging? But of course that is possible, but there is not much time left.
The EU is a demoncratic institution and as such does need some time to decide how to react to such begging should it occur.

I'm unconvinced that the EU even has a response to begging. The wheels have been set in motion. I wonder how enthusiastic MEPs would be to reverse the process and how much dallying is going to be involved.

It's interesting, because that's the actual gauge by which one can measure just how much the EU dreads the Brexit. In the end, we may find out just how much the EU thought it would get hurt by the quickness of the reaction and the nature of it. If they reject a withdrawal from the withdrawal, we can be sure the EU wasn't too worried (doubtful). If they jump to the occasion and instantly cancel everything, we know they think a lot more was on the line than they led us to believe, since they needed a strong position to negotiate from.

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Would they even meet the criteria after the decade those talks might take?
And think how bad they will have to have it before they might even think about starting those talks.

I'm fairly certain the UK would make the criteria rather easily once they set their minds on it. They would probably need some reforms to ensure democracy and fight corruption, but economically I see no problem.

[Slant]

I mean what does the EU have to gain from Brexit?
I can think of avoiding certain harmful UK obstructions (like the fact that we had Chinese steel dumping cause they didn't let the EU retaliate) but I am not sure the UK was the only issue with further convergence; after the crisis after all, the North would not at all be willing to converge with the South and many in the East would not ever cede any sovereignty that may expose the poor level of their democracies.
Politically, the Eu will be able to spin a Remain fabulously, even if Brussels was actually sweating while giving us a world class poker face. Economically we are certainly better of with the UK than without them in every possible measure.

On the other hand, without the UK, the EU actually has more strive to move forward with things like an EU defense plan. The UK would surely block that as soon as they're back in the saddle. They still fear that Germany will invade their tiny island.

[Deleted]

I wonder how much those old farts will enjoy the price hikes if the US gets access to the NHS.

But they'll probably just blame the Poles somehow, cause and effect isn't really their strong suit.

I think if the US ends up getting there hands on the NHS and we get an American style healthcare system (here's hoping we don't), the average tax payer wouldn't really feel much change, National Insurance will stop and be replaced with personal Medical Insurance, atleast from what I understand of the American system.

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On the other hand, without the UK, the EU actually has more strive to move forward with things like an EU defense plan. The UK would surely block that as soon as they're back in the saddle. They still fear that Germany will invade their tiny island.

If Brexit does end up getting turned around, I can't see the EU letting us have our veto back.

[dribbles]

Begging? But of course that is possible, but there is not much time left.
The EU is a demoncratic institution and as such does need some time to decide how to react to such begging should it occur.

Shock poll reveals Brits would rather have a No Deal Brexit than back Theresa May's plan

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...-quit-12925014

Percentage who want to go begging the EU for anything? 0% mmm mmm mmm.

[dribbles]

Wait, 39% want hard brexit. 20% want soft. What do the other 41 want? To go for a picnic?
Are you THAT bad at math?

The referendum was 52/48 in favour of Brexit and now, if you generously want to assume 41 want to picnic with the EU (I doubt it), now it is at 59/41 in favour of Brexit.

Crucially it also shows support for letting the EU crash out over the cliff edge without a deal with the UK strengthening considerably.

Does your math show something else?

25% want an extension, 16% don't know, the option to revoke article 50 was not even in the poll.
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-conte..._July-2018.pdf

If revoking article 50 had any traction in the UK the option would have been in there. Just assume nobody other than the EU might want to.
I suppose if they come begging its possible....

[Kiri]

The referendum was 52/48 in favour of Brexit and now, if you generously want to assume 41 want to picnic with the EU (I doubt it), now it is at 59/41 in favour of Brexit.

Crucially it also shows support for letting the EU crash out over the cliff edge without a deal with the UK strengthening considerably.

Does your math show something else?

It's a poll, not a referendum, which you do not even know the question of, or the other possibilities.

If I asked people "how should we proceed with Brexit?" and give the options
- May's soft Brexit plan
- No deal
- ask for an extension
then you will find 0% voting for remain. What a shock.
Heck, 41% could have voted to rename all people named "Dribbles" to "Snibbles" for all we know.

[dribbles]

It's a poll, not a referendum, which you do not even know the question of, or the other possibilities.

If I asked people "how should we proceed with Brexit?" and give the options
- May's soft Brexit plan
- No deal
- ask for an extension
then you will find 0% voting for remain. What a shock.
Heck, 41% could have voted to rename all people named "Dribbles" to "Snibbles" for all we know.

Asking for an extension, perhaps forever yet never leaving ala the Norway model, is the the remain option. (1 in 4 went for it)

[Noradin]

I'm fairly certain the UK would make the criteria rather easily once they set their minds on it. They would probably need some reforms to ensure democracy and fight corruption, but economically I see no problem.

But you see, the "setting their minds to it" part is what I'm unconvinced about.

A response to begging however?
I do know for sure that they have one, it is called diplomacy.
Begging won't get them anything tangible beyond a chance to submit an offer that the other member states might consider on its own merit, though.
It won't magically make that whole mess something that never happened.

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If Brexit does end up getting turned around, I can't see the EU letting us have our veto back.

You'd get a veto for everything new after you rejoined--just like everyone else--, but not for the defense plan, you wouldn't.

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Shock poll reveals Brits would rather have a No Deal Brexit than back Theresa May's plan

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...-quit-12925014

Percentage who want to go begging the EU for anything? 0% mmm mmm mmm.

Do you have a source for that latter claim?

And what has the former got to do with anything in my post?
You just felt like going off on a tangent again, didn't you?

[Kiri]

Asking for an extension, perhaps forever yet never leaving ala the Norway model, is the the remain option. (1 in 4 went for it)

I like how you start with "perhaps forever", then go with a straight "is the remain option". The remain option is not leaving at all. You know, because remain implies you are not in the process of leaving?

[Noradin]

If revoking article 50 had any traction in the UK the option would have been in there. Just assume nobody other than the EU might want to.
I suppose if they come begging its possible....

There is no way to revoke it unless you have a time machine hidden away somewhere?
If so you could try, I suppose...

[dribbles]

Do you have a source for that latter claim?

And what has the former got to do with anything in my post?
You just felt like going off on a tangent again, didn't you?

You were debating the question of the UK going begging to the EU. I just put you straight that it won't.

I like how you start with "perhaps forever", then go with a straight "is the remain option". The remain option is not leaving at all. You know, because remain implies you are not in the process of leaving?

But you can be in the process of joining or not (ask Norway) or leaving or not (the UK) the EU forever. If you are in the EU, yet start the process of leaving without any cut off date, that process could take 1000's of years. And in the meantime the status quo, remain, holds.

It is quite clearly the remain option.

There is no way to revoke it unless you have a time machine hidden away somewhere?
If so you could try, I suppose...

And yet the guy that wrote Article 50 says legally it is possible. Practically and politically out of the question, but yes possible.

[Dhrizzle]

On the other hand, without the UK, the EU actually has more strive to move forward with things like an EU defense plan. The UK would surely block that as soon as they're back in the saddle. They still fear that Germany will invade their tiny island.

Great Britain is actually quite big for an island.

[Noradin]

You were debating the question of the UK going begging to the EU. I just put you straight that it won't.

You should work on your reading comprehension.
I was debating the question if the UK could technically beg the EU, not if it would.

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And yet the guy that wrote Article 50 says legally it is possible. Practically and politically out of the question, but yes possible.

The EU disagrees and the "guy who wrote the Article" has no authority to dictate his interpretation.
What matters is what the sovereign member states of the EU agreed to, not what some guy thought he was writing.

[Slant]

I think if the US ends up getting there hands on the NHS and we get an American style healthcare system (here's hoping we don't), the average tax payer wouldn't really feel much change, National Insurance will stop and be replaced with personal Medical Insurance, atleast from what I understand of the American system.

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If Brexit does end up getting turned around, I can't see the EU letting us have our veto back.

Everyone has a veto. The uk would lose theirs exceptionalism but the veto is part of the deal.

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Great Britain is actually quite big for an island.

Yeah but i was belittling great britain there to express the level of respect i have for the idea that germany could invade great britain. That is none.

[Deleted]

Yeah but i was belittling great britain there to express the level of respect i have for the idea that germany could invade great britain. That is none.

Suspicious denials from the German I see.

[Noradin]

Suspicious denials from the German I see.

You should stack up on haggis so you can divert him!