[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Kiri]

Have you seen debt to gdp of greece before austerity and now? If austerity was a solution to prevent massive debt it has been a total failure.

Well, not like I said that it was a measure to prevent massive debt then, isn't it? I merely noted that the US, being the financial giant it is, has an easier time living with massive debt than Greece, which allows it to be more liberal with debt-financing their way out of a crisis. There are other factors, too, but I am trying to keep it simple here.

If you need an US-based example, look at Puerto Rico. Even before the natural disaster, they were in the grasp of hedgefunds. Heck, afaik, they even have a mandate to pay back foreign debtors first and foremost, even before spending money on their own services to an extent. I am no expert on that matter, but I do know that they were unable to just boost their way out of crisis due to debt.

[Nigel Tufnel]

What makes you think there will be a second referendum?

I wasn't being serious I am hoping to get a rise from a Brexiteer.

God only knows what's going to happen - it's a complete mess. And much fun needs to be had at our politicians' expense e.g., BJ today:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...e-gone-battle/

Edit... sorry - paywall:

So it’s ding ding! Seconds out! And we begin the final round of that international slug fest, the Brexit negotiations. Out of their corners come Dominic Raab and Michel Barnier, shrugging their shoulders and beating their chests – and I just hope you aren’t one of those trusting souls who still thinks it could really go either way. The fix is in. The whole thing is about as pre-ordained as a bout between Giant Haystacks and Big Daddy; and in this case, I am afraid, the inevitable outcome is a victory for the EU, with the UK lying flat on the canvas with 12 stars circling symbolically over our semi-conscious head.

I suppose there may be some aspects of the Chequers proposals that they pretend not to like. They may puff about “cherry picking” the single market. There may be some confected groaning and twanging of leotards when it comes to the discussion on free movement. But the reality is that in this negotiation the EU has so far taken every important trick. The UK has agreed to hand over £40 billion of taxpayers’ money for two thirds of diddly squat.

In adopting the Chequers proposals, we have gone into battle with the white flag fluttering over our leading tank. If we continue on this basis we will throw away most of the advantages of Brexit. By agreeing to a “common rulebook” with the EU – over which we have no control – we are making it impossible for the UK to be more competitive, to innovate, to deviate, to initiate, and we are ruling out major free trade deals.

If we go ahead with the Chequers proposals, we are forswearing the project of Global Britain – so splendidly articulated by the Prime Minister in her Lancaster House speech of January 17 2017 – and abandoning the notion of the UK as a proud independent economic actor. We will remain in the EU taxi; but this time locked in the boot, with absolutely no say on the destination. We won’t have taken back control – we will have lost control. We will serve as a terrible warning to any other EU country thinking of changing its relationship with Brussels: that even the UK, the fifth biggest economy in the world, was unable to break free of the gravitational pull of the EU, and forced to sue for humiliating terms.

Of course I hope that the PM will still change course – and rediscover the elan and dynamism of Lancaster House. With more than two years until the end of the implementation period, there is still ample time to save Brexit. If we are to do so, we must go back to the issue of the Northern Irish border, which has been so ingeniously manipulated – both by Brussels and parts of the UK Government – so as to keep Britain effectively in the customs union and in the single market.

What a joke. What a f'ing joke.

He is a dishonest, self-serving, devious, arrogant, narcissistic, creamy-topped, muppet.

I swear to god, I will put bricks through my local Tory’s window if he topples May and becomes PM with no GE.

Fundamentally, I think the UK leaving the EU is a colossal mistake on many, many levels.

However, I remain sceptical of unrealistic goals set by europhile politicians that are removed from the reality of peoples' everyday existence.

[Xarkan]

My broader point is that it's about time people stopped shitting on Germany for actually trying to contribute to the European project and keep a country out of the Venezuela zone of solvency, taking in refugees that nobody else wants (from a war Germany had nothing to do with for once) for backing tiny ass countries with their megalomaniac wishes despite them barely having more population than our largest cities...

And i find that attitude insulting and anti democratic

Not that i am a fan of shitting on Germany generally speaking

[Theodarzna]

Yeah, but Slant - what's your broader point?

Tough love works? That's stating the obvious. And at what social cost to Greece? Or is that cost insignificant in respect to the health of the eurozone as a whole?

The eurosceptic in me would say that the rest of Europe is getting a bit fed up with Germany sitting on top of its budget surplus and preaching to the rest of us.

I hear you might get tax cuts this year? That's nice.

The point? That you will get on your bended knee and praise the EU Commission, you will love every blessed thing they say and do and you will remember "The EU PROTECTS!"

[Slant]

However, I remain sceptical of unrealistic goals set by europhile politicians that are removed from the reality of peoples' everyday existence.

At least that's a position where one can have a debate. The absolute rejection of anything EU, however, I'm not able to talk with. No idea what to say. Okay, so you think Satan himself dreamt up the EU. Good for you! I mean what else is there to say?

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And i find that attitude insulting and anti democratic

Not that i am a fan of shitting on Germany generally speaking

It is insulting, it is undemocratic... until you realise that we do respect tiny countries and we listen to their input, no matter how small they are. You're missing my point. My point is that we are backing them and their interests. And we never complain. We don't want praise for it, either, because as far as we are concerned, that is living democracy in the heart of the EU.

But is it too much to ask not to be shat on for that? Don't answer me, you already did. But look at the people that have literally nothing but hate to contribute to these discussions. I'm sick of it.

The really stupid thing? I'm not even as much a Europhile as people think I am. I have a lot of points I'd like to change about the EU. But next to the hatemongering EU-phobes, everyone that doesn't immediately gets a pitchfork out looks like a lunatic EU-phile. And that's stupid, because suddenly the discussion is not about how we can improve the EU, now it's people like me having to justify why the fuck we prefer the EU over world wars in the first place. As if that even needs justification.

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The point? That you will get on your bended knee and praise the EU Commission, you will love every blessed thing they say and do and you will remember "The EU PROTECTS!"

Case in point... pathetic shit really. No idea why people like him even post here. Must be an acute and near fatal case of boredom. It's not even that he can expect some sort of respectful response to that.

[Mayhem]

Hmms... I'm not convinced.

This "solidarity"...

I'm sorry - but I fail to see much "solidarity" with respect to the pain caused by austerity inflicted on Greece and the benefits enjoyed as a result of Germany's budget surplus.

Yes, yes, yes... Greece's spending was unsustainable. We know that. But they should never have been allowed to join the euro.

I think many of us can agree that a united front in terms of foreign policy would be beneficial e.g., Russia / China etc.

But for me, and it keeps coming back to this: without fiscal union the eurozone is shafted. And fiscal union is never going to happen.

Macron can waffle on about us all being "Europeans" as much he likes... it doesn't strike a chord with the EU public. How & when is this necessary fiscal union going to take place?

In the meantime, back to Brexit, the UK has made the unwise decision to remove ourselves from the debate.

At least until the second referendum...

They wouldn't have joined if they haven't hid their debt.

[zealo]

Finland knows how well the "head in the sand" strategy works. Cost them Karelia, that strategy. And they were lucky in that they basically forced Russia into a stalemate when by all rights they should've been steamrolled. Much Sisu...

The alternative to that armed resistance you call a "head in the sand" strategy would have cost them a lot more than Karelia, especially with how little international support they received. Soviets even had a puppet government of communist exiles from the civil war ready to go from day one of the war. It were never their intention to be satisfied with "just" the initial territorial demands.

[Pannonian]

They wouldn't have joined if they haven't hid their debt.

So obviously we should have just stood in front of the shitshow that was greece in 2008, shook our hands and iterate: they should never have joined.

That would've helped...

And watch as the cascade first pulls down all the souther countries, and then even countries with much better standing heavily investing in these countries until the whole EU burns down.

That would've showed them!

Man do i love to get these Captain Obvious hints from Americans who began the whole financial crisis with their unregulated lending...

[Kiri]

At least that's a position where one can have a debate. The absolute rejection of anything EU, however, I'm not able to talk with. No idea what to say. Okay, so you think Satan himself dreamt up the EU. Good for you! I mean what else is there to say?

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It is insulting, it is undemocratic... until you realise that we do respect tiny countries and we listen to their input, no matter how small they are. You're missing my point. My point is that we are backing them and their interests. And we never complain. We don't want praise for it, either, because as far as we are concerned, that is living democracy in the heart of the EU.

But is it too much to ask not to be shat on for that? Don't answer me, you already did. But look at the people that have literally nothing but hate to contribute to these discussions. I'm sick of it.

The really stupid thing? I'm not even as much a Europhile as people think I am. I have a lot of points I'd like to change about the EU. But next to the hatemongering EU-phobes, everyone that doesn't immediately gets a pitchfork out looks like a lunatic EU-phile. And that's stupid, because suddenly the discussion is not about how we can improve the EU, now it's people like me having to justify why the fuck we prefer the EU over world wars in the first place. As if that even needs justification.

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Case in point... pathetic shit really. No idea why people like him even post here. Must be an acute and near fatal case of boredom. It's not even that he can expect some sort of respectful response to that.

I find that the same phenomenon keeps occurring with other issues as well - most prominently immigration. The loudest people, especially on this forum, have so rabidly extreme positions on issues that even moderates that have wishes for reformation on the issue are forced into the "pro X" side. Common ground can only be found by those willing to compromise. But populism, which is still on the rise and fairly evident in the Brexit campaign as well, rejects that notion. "Us or them" is a direct result of populists offering "whatever you want, no matter the feasibility/consequence". And as long as the British government seeks to appease that populism, it simply cannot come to an agreement with the EU. Full stop.

[Slant]

The alternative to that armed resistance you call a "head in the sand" strategy would have cost them a lot more than Karelia, especially with how little international support they received. Soviets even had a puppet government of communist exiles from the civil war ready to go from day one of the war. It were never their intention to be satisfied with "just" the initial territorial demands.

The armed resistance wasn't what I meant, what I meant was the time before the war and not clearly aligning with one or the other side. That's mighty dangerous.

[Deleted]

fuck me this thread goes in circles are we back onto greece.

[Slant]

I find that the same phenomenon keeps occurring with other issues as well - most prominently immigration. The loudest people, especially on this forum, have so rabidly extreme positions on issues that even moderates that have wishes for reformation on the issue are forced into the "pro X" side. Common ground can only be found by those willing to compromise. But populism, which is still on the rise and fairly evident in the Brexit campaign as well, rejects that notion. "Us or them" is a direct result of populists offering "whatever you want, no matter the feasibility/consequence". And as long as the British government seeks to appease that populism, it simply cannot come to an agreement with the EU. Full stop.

And I think this is the actual conclusion to this. You've really explained everything that is wrong with Brexit and these negotiations.

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fuck me this thread goes in circles are we back onto greece.

They'll use anything to hate on the EU and Germany. :shrug:

[Mayhem]

So obviously we should have just stood in front of the shitshow that was greece in 2008, shook our hands and iterate: they should never have joined.

That would've helped...

And watch as the cascade first pulls down all the souther countries, and then even countries with much better standing heavily investing in these countries until the whole EU burns down.

That would've showed them!

Man do i love to get these Captain Obvious hints from Americans who began the whole financial crisis with their unregulated lending...

Yep, all of this ^

[Nigel Tufnel]

Man do i love to get these Captain Obvious hints from Americans who began the whole financial crisis with their unregulated lending...

I'm not American and, yes, I can criticise the EU for its lack of due diligence when it came to admitting Greece to the Eurozone.

You disagree with this statement?

[Gibblewink]

While they probably didn't expect the Greek government to lie their way in or the rating bureaus to be silly enough to give all eurozone countries the same rating as Germany there is no doubt that a better audit would have helped prevent later problems, but these things are also the art of the possible and there is the question of just how much scrutiny the EU member states would have accepted. It was also a question of not creating too many obstacles to getting the project started or making it come across as an elitist club for Germany and its close and personal friends.

[Slant]

I'm not American and, yes, I can criticise the EU for its lack of due diligence when it came to admitting Greece to the Eurozone.

You disagree with this statement?

With that everyone can agree. However, it's not helpful to talk about spilled milk. We need to deal with it. Talking about how it happened isn't helping anyone. We are going to be more careful about future candidates, but that's obviously not going to help Greece now.

[Pannonian]

I'm not American and, yes, I can criticise the EU for its lack of due diligence when it came to admitting Greece to the Eurozone.

You disagree with this statement?

Yeah, because: how does it help now? A lot of countries lied to the EU. Was the EU to trusting and not diligent enough? Sure. But it seems to me they learned from their mistakes and take the 3% much more serious now. But even with that you cannot prevent countries from lying and manipulating their books. Maybe you want to put a harsh fine on Greece for lying (and on the german banks that helped them manipulate)? Sure... go for it. Personally i think the easiest fix for that would be a fiscal union and to make that happen a common social and interior union, but i suppose some people dont't like that idea...

Also, yeah, criticise all you want, i personally do like to criticise the EU, but there are positions between wanting to abolish the EU and loving everything they do...

[Deleted]

ive been thinking about the plus side of no deal brexit. Crystal Palace have alot of english players so would be one of the least effected clubs, champions league here we come (assuming we can get the visas to play in the champions league)

[Nigel Tufnel]

Yeah, because: how does it help now? A lot of countries lied to the EU. Was the EU to trusting and not diligent enough? Sure. But it seems to me they learned from their mistakes and take the 3% much more serious now. But even with that you cannot prevent countries from lying and manipulating their books. Maybe you want to put a harsh fine on Greece for lying (and on the german banks that helped them manipulate)? Sure... go for it. Personally i think the easiest fix for that would be a fiscal union and to make that happen a common social and interior union, but i suppose some people dont't like that idea...

Also, yeah, criticise all you want, i personally do like to criticise the EU, but there are positions between wanting to abolish the EU and loving everything they do...

Yep, I agree completely.

But this is entirely the point…

I can count only one poster (who need not be named) in this thread who takes the 10/10 eurosceptic position. And half the time I’m not entirely sure said poster is being 100% serious.

If you’re putting me in the same category as said poster then you haven’t absorbed my position and I can’t be bothered to rehash it all.

The Yanis Varoufakis Guardian quote / Greek interlude: I just thought it was interesting. I disagree with him entirely, but clearly he’s an intelligent chap coming from a certain political viewpoint.

Fiscal union: entirely separate debate. I think its completely unachievable with the 19 eurozone countries. France / Germany want to enter fiscal union? Great. I think most people would agree this would be very sensible and be of benefit to both countries. Fiscal union within the eurozone? Get out of here! Never going to happen. Ever.

However, we can now go back to the main purpose of this thread which is to bash the UK…

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-social-unrest

Andy Burnham warns of social unrest while calling for a second referendum but isn’t specific about who’s going to be doing the rioting. Is he implying it’s going to be the Leavers doing the rioting? Is he unaware that it will be the Remainers rioting if we crash out with no deal?

IMO social unrest is unavoidable now.

[Demolitia]

Yep, I agree completely.

But this is entirely the point…

I can count only one poster (who need not be named) in this thread who takes the 10/10 eurosceptic position. And half the time I’m not entirely sure said poster is being 100% serious.

If you’re putting me in the same category as said poster then you haven’t absorbed my position and I can’t be bothered to rehash it all.

The Yanis Varoufakis Guardian quote / Greek interlude: I just thought it was interesting. I disagree with him entirely, but clearly he’s an intelligent chap coming from a certain political viewpoint.

Fiscal union: entirely separate debate. I think its completely unachievable with the 19 eurozone countries. France / Germany want to enter fiscal union? Great. I think most people would agree this would be very sensible and be of benefit to both countries. Fiscal union within the eurozone? Get out of here! Never going to happen. Ever.

However, we can now go back to the main purpose of this thread which is to bash the UK…

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-social-unrest

Andy Burnham warns of social unrest while calling for a second referendum but isn’t specific about who’s going to be doing the rioting. Is he implying it’s going to be the Leavers doing the rioting? Is he unaware that it will be the Remainers rioting if we crash out with no deal?

IMO social unrest is unavoidable now.

I don't think it's an entirely separate debate. That the EU is not functioning as it should/could in all areas is certain. The problem is precisely how should we fix it, and to do that we need to be clear on how much integration there should be in which areas. Here everyone has their own opinion, so the way it has grown is with slow incremental integration where member states could live with it, but one big problem with setting up the Euro is not having a fiscal policy to go with it. Fiscal and monetary policy should go hand in hand.
But the truth is nobody agrees on big directions until there is a serious problem, and then suddenly the EU is given the mandate to deal with it.
The refugee crisis led to the creation of the Asylum seekers support office to help member states coordinate their actions and exchange information. There was no such thing before 2011.
The financial crisis led to the creation of a banking authority and financial stability mechanisms. Everybody agreed that it was not the EUs mandate until the shit hit the fan, and then suddenly we decided it would be good to have some cooperation there too.

At some point we need to sit down and seriously rethink what we want from Europe, and what its governance should look like. Until then I guess we'll just have people lamenting how its choking businesses with regulation and imposing too much here, and not doing anything there.

I think predicting social unrest is a bit premature

edit: As for Greece a simple solution would be for wealthier European countries to write them a check and forget about it. They should still reform, but they are not going to repay most of their debt, and we are all partly to blame.