[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Soxoffender]

I never get this view on the far left, when it comes to workers rights the EU has basically made it so every European country has better worker rights than what they had prior to joining and that mainland europe as a whole each and every country within the EU has much greater rights for workers than the UK has due to opt outs. The Tories have within their ranks enough members so ideologically opposed to worker's rights that even some of the republicans in the US might think these guys are a bit far.

I agree that it's absolutely a fact that Tory MEPs have consistently fought against increases in workers rights in the EU and and that people like Fox are licking their lips at the opportunity to join a race to the bottom in becoming a low wage "highly competitive" society. It's also true that freedom of movement has allowed workers to take temporary residence in wealthier countries and 'potentially' take work at a lower wage than locals. Some will tell you that this global labour arbitrage leads to a suppression of wages in the long term and that this disproportionately affects those on lower wages as that's usually where it's easiest to overload the labour market by importing foreign labour. Think of it like outsourcing, except rather than moving the factory abroad you move the lower-wage labour in.

Whether or not this has had a significant impact in the UK is up for debate, but that's the theory.

[Deleted]

Why on earth do you think that Brexit will mean "Bye bye NHS and Armed forces"?

What do you mean by the English squatting in Northern Ireland? Are the sixty-odd thousand English people in NI living abandoned buildings or something?

Both are already in dire straits, where do you think the cuts will go in a no deal brexit (lets not even get into the hiring problems/procurement/trade deal sell offs/ lower tax revenue)

United Ireland > hard border.

[Pann]

I'd guess because many of the architects of Brexit and the chief Brexiteers in charge are ideologically opposed to the notion of nationalised healthcare and would be delighted to sell it off. Carswell and Hannan wrote a shitty dystopian novel/political pamphlet about how in the first 12 months after Brexit we should (amongst other things) switch to a Singaporean style mixed public/private healthcare system and this is just the beginning for them:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0053KF0...ng=UTF8&btkr=1
Similarly, it's no secret that people like Disgraced Former Defence Secretary Liam Fox and Jeremy Hunt have been vocal in the past about how private provision should replace the NHS.

On the squatting front - that's presumably a ref to potential Irish reunification which seems more plausible if Brexit damages the NI economy or the ability of people to move freely between the North and South.

Soz to anyone if I've misrepresented your point.

I appreciate the effort but all you have proved is that some people who supported Brexit are in favour of privatised health care. It is a massive leap from a couple of former politicians writing a book and some soundbites from a couple of MPs to the NHS going bye, bye.

As for Northern Ireland, the unionists still comprise the majority of the NI population and it is highly unlikely that the Republic will vote to make the Unionists their problem as well as the financial burden Northern Ireland would have on their economy (especially if they are hit by a no-deal Brexit).

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Both are already in dire straits, where do you think the cuts will go in a no deal brexit (lets not even get into the hiring problems/procurement/trade deal sell offs/ lower tax revenue)

United Ireland > hard border.

Why don't you tell me what cuts will be made and how they would result in the demise of both the NHS and the armed forces?

Utter nonsense.

[Kallisto]

Brexit: 'No optimism' for summit breakthrough, says Donald Tusk

Donald Tusk has poured cold water on hopes of a Brexit breakthrough at Wednesday's EU summit, saying the Irish border was still a sticking point.

The European Council president said he had "no grounds for optimism" it would be solved at the summit.

And he called on Theresa May to come up with "concrete proposals" to break the "impasse".

The prime minister told her cabinet a deal was within reach if the government "stand together and stand firm".

Speaking at a press conference in Brussels, Mr Tusk said: "As I see it, the only source of hope for a deal for now is the goodwill and determination on both sides.

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"However, for a breakthrough to take place besides goodwill we need new facts.

"Tomorrow (Wednesday), I am going to ask Prime Minister May whether she has concrete proposals on how to break the impasse."

He urged Mrs May to present "something creative enough" to break the deadlock.

He said EU leaders would discuss how to step-up preparations for a "no-deal scenario", but stressed that did not mean they were not also making "every effort to reach the best agreement possible for all sides".

Both sides in Brexit talks are hoping that a deal on the UK's withdrawal from the EU, including the Irish border question, will be agreed by mid-November in time for it to be ratified by EU members and for MPs at Westminster to vote on it.

The UK and the EU had hoped that enough progress would be made at Wednesday's EU council meeting to call a special summit in November to finalise the terms of the UK's exit.

Asked if the November summit would still go ahead, Mr Tusk said: "It's for the leaders to decide whether we need an extraordinary summit in November or not.

"Logistically, we are ready, but we need the feeling that we are close to a real breakthrough. The clock is ticking."

Theresa May told a cabinet meeting on Tuesday morning she could not agree to any deal with the EU which created a new border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK - or one which locked the UK into a customs union with the EU indefinitely.

She says this would be the consequence of the proposals currently on the table from the EU.

The cabinet had discussed a "mechanism" that would avoid an indefinite customs union if a full trade deal cannot be agreed by the end of the 21-month transition period that is due to kick in after the UK leaves on 29 March - the so-called "backstop" plan.

But it was "not a decision-making cabinet", Downing Street said.

The prime minister told ministers progress had been made in Brexit talks on the "future framework" for trade and although there would be challenging moments ahead a deal with Brussels was within reach, Downing Street said.

"I am convinced that if we as a government stand together and stand firm we will achieve this," she said.

Mrs May used Tuesday's cabinet to rally support for her position among senior ministers, amid reports eight of them had met on Monday to discuss their concerns about it.

Downing Street said none of the eight - Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, Penny Mordaunt, Chris Grayling, Liz Truss, Andrea Leadsom and Geoffrey Cox - had threatened to quit at Tuesday's cabinet meeting and it was clear that she had strong support.

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, who is travelling to Luxembourg to brief EU leaders ahead of Wednesday's summit, said he hoped a deal with Britain was possible "in the coming weeks".

"We are still not there.

"There are still several issues which remain unresolved, including that of Ireland, and therefore what I understand is that more time is required to find this comprehensive deal and to reach this decisive progress which we need in order to finalise these negotiations on the orderly exit of the United Kingdom."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45871254

It seems the EU has all but given up on a deal now. It's all down to May not being absolute stubborn and bring in something that isn't stupid.

[Soxoffender]

I appreciate the effort but all you have proved is that some people who supported Brexit are in favour of privatised health care. It is a massive leap from a couple of former politicians writing a book and some soundbites from a couple of MPs to the NHS going bye, bye.

As for Northern Ireland, the unionists still comprise the majority of the NI population and it is highly unlikely that the Republic will vote to make the Unionists their problem as well as the financial burden Northern Ireland would have on their economy (especially if they are hit by a no-deal Brexit).

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Why don't you tell me what cuts will be made and how they would result in the demise of both the NHS and the armed forces?

Utter nonsense.

Fox is the Secretary of State for International Trade - he's charged with making post-Brexit deals (which could include opening up our markets to foreign businesses) and Hunt is the foreign secretary. These are not fringe nutters, they are cabinet nutters.

Here's our old pal Dan Hannan on the Cato Institute's website writing a 'blueprint' for a future US/UK deal that includes allowing 'competition' between US firms and the NHS. Fox has said it's great and the ERG (which represents about 20 Tory MPs) has also backed it:
https://www.cato.org/publications/wh...rs-perspective
It may not come to pass but there are mainstream elements within the Tory party that absolutely want to dismantle the NHS, at a personal profit of course.

As for NI - if the GFA is compromised or the UUP think they can start gaining ground on the DUP by claiming any Brexit agreement Foster signs off is weak and ratcheting up the sectarianism then things could change quickly.

[Deleted]

Why don't you tell me what cuts will be made and how they would result in the demise of both the NHS and the armed forces?

Utter nonsense.

We can wait for the autumn budget to see more but :

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/13078 - nhs reality

not to mention no deal would gut the NHS of workers. (and in social care)

as for the armed forces they are already a skeleton crew with a 20billion budget shortfall. Navy pruned 33%.

Where do you think the revenue is going to come from in a shattered economy, and what do you think the first things cut are?

[Fuiking]

Typical of the EU and you to be throwing a tantrum and sticking your fingers in your ears and singing lalalala when presented with the cold hard facts.

Do you think I am Mrs May?

Brexit LIVE: Germany fury at May as EU deal on brink of collapse - 'TAKE RESPONSIBILITY!'

https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...eeting-EU-deal

Contain your fury man, stop hiding in your cubby hole and calm down.

(p.s. Just because I am on your hallowed ignore list, thank God, it doesn't stop you see this when not logged in, but bye bye anyway I guess.)

Tick tock. Bwahahahahaaa

what kind of facts?

[Kallisto]

what kind of facts?

Alternate Facts

[Pann]

Fox is the Secretary of State for International Trade - he's charged with making post-Brexit deals (which could include opening up our markets to foreign businesses) and Hunt is the foreign secretary. These are not fringe nutters, they are cabinet nutters.

Here's our old pal Dan Hannan on the Cato Institute's website writing a 'blueprint' for a future US/UK deal that includes allowing 'competition' between US firms and the NHS. Fox has said it's great and the ERG (which represents about 20 Tory MPs) has also backed it:
https://www.cato.org/publications/wh...rs-perspective
It may not come to pass but there are mainstream elements within the Tory party that absolutely want to dismantle the NHS, at a personal profit of course.

As for NI - if the GFA is compromised or the UUP think they can start gaining ground on the DUP by claiming any Brexit agreement Foster signs off is weak and ratcheting up the sectarianism then things could change quickly.

I am aware of who they are. It still does not change the fact that these people, regardless of what positions they may or not hold within government, are unable to privatise the NHS.

I'm not sure why you've brought up The UUP apart from being a bit of a spent force they are Unionists.

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We can wait for the autumn budget to see more but :

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/13078 - nhs reality

not to mention no deal would gut the NHS of workers. (and in social care)

as for the armed forces they are already a skeleton crew with a 20billion budget shortfall. Navy pruned 33%.

Where do you think the revenue is going to come from in a shattered economy, and what do you think the first things cut are?

The NHS, like many public services, is short of money. This is the reality of being in debt to the tune of 88% of our GDP and having to pay 8% of the UK tax take per annum on servicing that debt (which indecently is higher than defence spending).

Why would no-deal gut the NHS of workers? Aside from the fact over 85% of the NHS's staff are British why would the UK not grant the right to work to the 5.6% of workers from the EU?

The UK armed forces do not have a budget shortfall of £20billion. It has been reported that they could face a shortfall of £20billion from their £180billion budget for new equipment over the next decade, although many estimates put this closer to £4billion.

How did the NHS and armed forces survive the global financial crisis?

Are you going quote headlines or provide some actual evidence to back up your claim that the NHS and armed forces are going bye-bye post Brexit?

[Soxoffender]

I am aware of who they are. It still does not change the fact that these people, regardless of what positions they may or not hold within government, are unable to privatise the NHS.

I'm not sure why you've brought up The UUP apart from being a bit of a spent force they are Unionists.

You're saying that the government are unable to privatise the NHS? There's no unalterable covenant that stops it. It may not happen but it's certainly more likely than it was before the vote.

I was talking about how the UUP could (potentially) try to gain back ground on Foster and the DUP if she accepts a Brexit deal. They 'might' call her soft and try to outflank her by pushing a harder line and a more strongly sectarian message.

Northern Ireland voted to remain, it already has the highest levels of unemployment and poverty in the UK and can't afford to lose the €500M in EU subsidies it receives each year. If you don't think that's a potential recipe for disaster then I don't know what to tell you.

[ranzino]

any educated guess about where we are with brexit in 24h ?
will they argue and negotiate all the night into thursday, if necessary ? or will EU put down the issue tomorrow and send Theresa home ?


We can't wait to burn it to the ground !

[Demolitia]

any educated guess about where we are with brexit in 24h ?
will they argue and negotiate all the night into thursday, if necessary ? or will EU put down the issue tomorrow and send Theresa home ?


We can't wait to burn it to the ground !

Same as were we are now. They cancelled the technical negotiators meeting on Monday, together with the preparation of the joint statement after the meeting tomorrow, so unless there is a major political surrender from one side or the other, which is unlikely, we will still be where we are right now.
There will be arguments, but not much to negotiate.

[ranzino]

Same as were we are now. They cancelled the technical negotiators meeting on Monday, together with the preparation of the joint statement after the meeting tomorrow, so unless there is a major political surrender from one side or the other, which is unlikely, we will still be where we are right now.
There will be arguments, but not much to negotiate.

but that means "game over" in 24h, because we do not negotiate any longer after tomorrow; curtains down and off we go.

the rest is silence

[Demolitia]

but that means "game over" in 24h, because we do not negotiate any longer after tomorrow; curtains down and off we go.

the rest is silence

Well I've been surprised before. Trump is President and the UK voted for Brexit.
What happened in the last two years is technical negotiators ironing out details on the easy stuff. The only thing that is a problem today is the Irish border, which was pretty much the only real issue back then, and absolutely no progress has been made there since day one.
Your guess is as good as mine on whether a miracle will happen.

[ranzino]

Well I've been surprised before. Trump is President and the UK voted for Brexit.
What happened in the last two years is technical negotiators ironing out details on the easy stuff. The only thing that is a problem today is the Irish border, which was pretty much the only real issue back then, and absolutely no progress has been made there since day one.
Your guess is as good as mine on whether a miracle will happen.

i wonder how PM May will act tomorrow: she cannot achieve anything and then return to London unscathed. her career ends tomorrow, not in march

[Demolitia]

i wonder how PM May will act tomorrow: she cannot achieve anything and then return to London unscathed. her career ends tomorrow, not in march

Council meetings and the following statement are always very much staged and prepared in advance. Usually nothing gets actually done there. Heads of states are not experts in any particular field so one should not expect any breakthrough usually. I guess if this particular meeting is her political death warrant, then the UK has weird expectations. Both the UK and the EU said as early as Sunday that the preparatory meetings did not go well, and we should not get a different message tomorrow.

[Pann]

You're saying that the government are unable to privatise the NHS? There's no unalterable covenant that stops it. It may not happen but it's certainly more likely than it was before the vote.

I was talking about how the UUP could (potentially) try to gain back ground on Foster and the DUP if she accepts a Brexit deal. They 'might' call her soft and try to outflank her by pushing a harder line and a more strongly sectarian message.

Northern Ireland voted to remain, it already has the highest levels of unemployment and poverty in the UK and can't afford to lose the €500M in EU subsidies it receives each year. If you don't think that's a potential recipe for disaster then I don't know what to tell you.

Yes, I am. What exactly makes you think it is more likely that the NHS would be privatised post Brexit? How does EU membership prevent the privatisation of health services?

Regardless what might or might not happen with the UUP they are Unionists, like the DUP, they will not do anything that threatens to break up the union.

The majority of what you have written is inaccurate, Northern Ireland's unemployment rate is 4.3% (compared to 6.1% in RoI) which is 0.3% higher than the UK average but the poverty rate in Northern Ireland of 19% is lower than England (21%) and Wales (24%) and the same as Scotland. The UK subsidies Northern Ireland to the tune of £6billion per annum and, as part of the UK, NI pays £374million (based on 2015 figures) into the EU which it gets £320million (mostly in CAP payments) in return.

[Slant]

Council meetings and the following statement are always very much staged and prepared in advance. Usually nothing gets actually done there. Heads of states are not experts in any particular field so one should not expect any breakthrough usually. I guess if this particular meeting is her political death warrant, then the UK has weird expectations. Both the UK and the EU said as early as Sunday that the preparatory meetings did not go well, and we should not get a different message tomorrow.

Well, it's not that simple. Technical negotiators may be specialists in their fields, but they do not have the political mandate to actually decide anything. They can argue all night long, if the head of state comes along and says "Hmmm, I've changed my mind, let's do it!" then they'll do it. It's in her power to do a complete 180° at a moment's notice.

Is it likely? Consideringi her stubborness and utter ignorance of how the EU operates, no. It's not likely at all. But she could. Absolutely.

[CostinR]

i wonder how PM May will act tomorrow: she cannot achieve anything and then return to London unscathed. her career ends tomorrow, not in march

It's hard to say really. Does anyone want her job? It's a disaster regardless of how you view it.

There's no package May can present that has a chance in hell of passing a parliamentary vote.

[Demolitia]

Well, it's not that simple. Technical negotiators may be specialists in their fields, but they do not have the political mandate to actually decide anything. They can argue all night long, if the head of state comes along and says "Hmmm, I've changed my mind, let's do it!" then they'll do it. It's in her power to do a complete 180° at a moment's notice.

Is it likely? Consideringi her stubborness and utter ignorance of how the EU operates, no. It's not likely at all. But she could. Absolutely.

On this specific issue it's not that simple. One side has to say: "screw the RoI", "screw NI" or both agree on nothing, expect that there will be a border. Either way it is not trivial and technical negotiators have to come up with practical details and a way of putting this in legal words.

What I meant is that if technical negotiators were called off, it is a clear signal to me that the EU does not expect any miracle tomorrow.

I wouldn't call it stubbornness and ignorance. She is in a shitty situation where half of her party are either ignorant of how the EU operates or are out for themselves, either financially (JRM) or politically (BoJo the Clown and co). Then she trapped herself with the DUP coalition. She can't realistically sell or get through the commons ANY deal.