[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Slant]

BBC has an interesting article. No, Dribs... this isn't for you, this is a credible source for adults.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45882360

Analysis: Three scenarios
By BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg

The worst-case scenario for Downing Street is that EU leaders are so fed up with the UK position and what they see as the lack of reality, that on Thursday, they formally say they will hold a no-deal summit in November.

That would switch them on to a track that would be hard to get off once in motion.

One EU source expressed disbelief that Theresa May thought she could turn up on Wednesday with nothing new. It was simply crazy, in their view, to suggest that the ball can be lobbed back into the EU court.

The best case - and it seems right now unlikely - scenario is for the EU to say that there is a deal in reach, so let's get a date in the diary for the sign-off next month.

What seems more likely is a holding position. EU leaders could give some kinds of vague noises that both sides still want to pursue negotiations, so that the talks can get going again.

One Brussels source said that while it is "time for choices", they could give the prime minister space and time to build a majority at home for a deal.

But hey... tick tock, eh Dribs? I know you keep repeating it to rile us up, but it's sad that you're really counting down the time your fellow countrymen have until they face the consequences of your madness. I'm just glad we'll soon have a hard border between us and people like you. Thank fuck for that, actually.

For the rest, come on over. We'll find space for you.

[dribbles]

But hey... tick tock, eh Dribs? I know you keep repeating it to rile us up, but it's sad that you're really counting down the time your fellow countrymen have until they face the consequences of your madness. I'm just glad we'll soon have a hard border between us and people like you. Thank fuck for that, actually.

For the rest, come on over. We'll find space for you.

Except the problem is, they are still all coming the other way to escape European tyranny, how many persecuted EU refugees is the UK expected to take?

We have much in common Slanty and I too wish for your hard border, can't come soon enough. And the reality is the UK/EU are no nearer a deal today than yesterday or 2 years ago. And the clock ticks and tocks but not for much longer now.

You must get fed up of my told you so's, you should ignore me and keep your head in those fluffy, EU regulated, fluffy clouds.

Let's look forwards, not back.

The UK after Brexit

Freedom day is the day we leave the EU. It is one of those curious cul de sacs of history that the UK, a fiercely independent and democratic nation, spent 47 years with increasing shackles over our decisions in the EU. Like Gulliver, the UK found herself bound by more and more rules and regulations from Brussels, tied down by something UK voters were told was just a trading bloc....

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/10...-after-brexit/

....Long live freedom. There is nothing to fear, and everything to welcome. I want my country to be self governing once again. Then if the politicians get it wrong, the people can kick them out and try with a new team. All the time we live under Brussels we have to accept the inflexibility and injustice of their laws.

[Kronik85]

So...

Is anyone else going to get rations in?

I mean, apparently, it's all going to be fine so there's no need.

Well one of our biggest exporters to lose out on Brexit will be Welsh Lamb, so next spring it should be pretty damn cheap if they can't get it out of the country and the super markets are saturated with the stuff....so that's good? I guess. Pretty sure Fray Bentos Pies make decent bunker food providing we still have access to oven's post Brexit and they're so loaded with salt and fat they should kill you way before Brexit does!

I can't wait till our Brexit dividend of 1 spring with cheap Lamb and a short life of Fray Bentos Pies.

[ranzino]

Tess May again wants to please everyone. She told Leo Varadkar she accepts there could be no time limit to the Irish backstop. but she also now denies the idea of extension of transition period. so what ? if the idea of extension is dead, negotiations are over.

[Kallisto]

She needs to resign and everyone with two working legs needs to go to the march on Saturday.

[Slant]

I mean she is still acting as if it is Chequers or nothing.

I'd like to think she's a sane person and actually has a plan in the back of her head. But the longer this drags on, the more she looks like a deer in the headlights of an oncoming truck...

[Slant]

I mean her entire stance, if ignoring the trouble at her parliament would look like she was playing chicken with the EU and expecting them to give up first.

That's not quite wrong, it seems. The sad truth is, however, that the British still don't get the EU and how bureaucracy works. One British pundit seemed to get it when he said "to the EU, this is just a technical, legal process. They'll just go through the motions and there's no flinching involved."

[ranzino]

is there now any mechanism for EU to say "Sorry Tess, it's over" ?

[Slant]

is there now any mechanism for EU to say "Sorry Tess, it's over" ?

Nope, and why should they. The current modus seems to be to have a special summit in November. If the UK comes up with a significantly improved solution for Northern Ireland, they'll get an invite and the opportunity to sort everything out. If they don't come up with anything, they won't get an invite and the Council will decide to cease negotiations and prepare for a hard Brexit. At that point, it is game over. Once the EU sets those wheels in motion, they won't go back. It'll be bureaucrats taking over.

[ranzino]

Nope, and why should they. The current modus seems to be to have a special summit in November. If the UK comes up with a significantly improved solution for Northern Ireland, they'll get an invite and the opportunity to sort everything out. If they don't come up with anything, they won't get an invite and the Council will decide to cease negotiations and prepare for a hard Brexit. At that point, it is game over. Once the EU sets those wheels in motion, they won't go back. It'll be bureaucrats taking over.

AFAIK the november summit is already scrapped and only on the table again if UK moves their collective asses.
would mean there is a deadline now ?

[ati87]

Nope, and why should they. The current modus seems to be to have a special summit in November. If the UK comes up with a significantly improved solution for Northern Ireland, they'll get an invite and the opportunity to sort everything out. If they don't come up with anything, they won't get an invite and the Council will decide to cease negotiations and prepare for a hard Brexit. At that point, it is game over. Once the EU sets those wheels in motion, they won't go back. It'll be bureaucrats taking over.

Brexit was never really well thought it's full of contradictions which is why nothing really has changed between now and page 1.

[Slant]

AFAIK the november summit is already scrapped and only on the table again if UK moves their collective asses.
would mean there is a deadline now ?

Well, I haven't spoken to Barnier, so I'm unclear as to what's actually happening.

However, pundits that seem to be closer have suggested such a thing. Bar a clear statement, my guess is as good as yours. I believe the regular December summit is the actual point of no return. But seeing as Britain is still closing its eyes and going "lalala", there's no chance anything will change. If I had to put a wager, I'd put my bet on a crashout.

I don't see any way to resolve this except for utter British surrender. And for a nation that glorifies things like the charge of the light cavalry, they'd rather walk into the Northern Sea singing Rule, Britannia! while drowning than admit they've made a mistake.

I'm just now watching Prime Minister's Questions, and it's a circus. A joke. It's the satire of proper politics. They have no clue. It's not even that May is absolutely disconnected from reality, nobody in the whole house is raising the rock solid fact that the EU won't budge on its red lines. They're not even daring to ask what if. It's pathetic. I pity every Remainer in that country, they're getting buttfucked by their own corrupt politicians, everyone of which will happily set the country ablaze only to keep his seat.

- - - Updated - - -

Brexit was never really well thought it's full of contradictions which is why nothing really has changed between now and page 1.

I know. And it's looking even more bleak now.

[Malacrass]

Read an interesting interpretation of May's behavior.

Her coming home with literally no progress is a win for her. Why? Because all three parties in GB are not interested in a deal anyway.

- The Brexit hardliners are not interested in any deal, no matter what
- Labour only sees the Brexit negotiations as a chance to come into power (and will also tear any compromise apart for political gain)
- May is not interested in a deal -at this moment-, because she's fighting for her survival right now. Coming home with something substantial would give both the hardliners and labour 6 full weeks to butcher her slowly.

So what she does instead is calculating the deadlines of the British Parliament and the deadlines of the EU, with the perfect timing being mid December. 5 days before the British Parliament heads into vacation.
Of course it's a gamble if they can come to a decision under such pressure, but on the other hand no pressure definitely won't lead to a decision, as we could see in the past 2 years.

[ranzino]

PM May needs consent from Parliament to propose something AND has to bring it back to Westminster for ratification later.
Now guess what happens right now ?

"EU leaders are preparing to back Theresa May in building a “coalition of the reasonable” in the UK parliament, in a desperate bid to avoid a no-deal Brexit."

if it means May can kick Arlene Foster and her DUP in the nuts, i'm all for it. and please sack those silly backbenchers too

[Kallisto]

That's not quite wrong, it seems. The sad truth is, however, that the British still don't get the EU and how bureaucracy works. One British pundit seemed to get it when he said "to the EU, this is just a technical, legal process. They'll just go through the motions and there's no flinching involved."

It was the older guy from the 3 men in a pub videos, a guy who is in the remain camp even though the job he was in (until a few days ago which he quit to help focus on remain and people's vote) would have been one of the few to actually benefit heavily from no deal.

[Kronik85]

PM May needs consent from Parliament to propose something AND has to bring it back to Westminster for ratification later.
Now guess what happens right now ?

"EU leaders are preparing to back Theresa May in building a “coalition of the reasonable” in the UK parliament, in a desperate bid to avoid a no-deal Brexit."

if it means May can kick Arlene Foster and her DUP in the nuts, i'm all for it. and please sack those silly backbenchers too

That would involve May being reasonable too. This is a Prime Minister who triggered Art 50 without a plan. A Prime Minister who when promising a proper vote in Parliament on the deal actually meant "my way or no deal". A Prime Minister who cannot form consensus with anyone, be it her Cabinet, her back benchers, her coalition partners, the opposition or fellow heads of state. Would be great if it could be built with out her though, might have half a shot then.

[Slant]

So, apparently the summit was rather interesting in that May talked for 15 minutes. High speed rambling to mostly non-native English speakers. At some point, Merkel is said to have asked Barnier "what May is on about". Then stunned silence and no questions until May left. The EU isn't quite sure what May actually wants and after the speech, they got the impression that May also doesn't quite know what she wants. :P

Amusing.

[Slant]

None of this should come as any surprise. May holds the record for longest serving Home Secretary, but her 6 year tenure was largely ineffectual and incompetent, even the Tories recognised this. https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/0...nt-reassuring/

Tephlon Theresa was good at dodging bullets, mainly through spin and sacrificing underlings, so we can expect everyone but Theresa to be blamed for Theresa's utter incompetence.

Tephlon theresa.. Ha that is funny.

[Demolitia]

An interesting read:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...xit-supporters
Looks like the US is a much bigger regulatory clusterfuck than the EU. Good luck with your trade deal.

[Kallisto]

As if that would change anything, she is not the problem.

She is part of the problem, a major part. Trying so hard to push through an agreement that the EU can legally not allow. Going on and on and on trying to push it when the EU killed it dead before the Brexiteer Reese-Mogg part of the conservative party had it all changed (and killed again).

The EU legally can not budge on Northern Ireland issues either, legally. She can but won't.

She got into bed with the DUP, which has in its little group circle half a dozen terrorist groups. Not just that but their policy makes Trump look sane.

The only reason most people had a sigh of relief when she replaced Cameron was because even though her 6 years as home secretary were ones of incompetence and outright destructive ideas, at least she wasn't Fox (As secretary of defense gutted the armed forces), Webb (Tried to end sick pay with a "IF you're sick fuck you ." attitude), Gove ("Who cares what the experts say." and as Education secretary nearly destroyed English schools) and Leadsom (who pretty much does every fucking interview highlighting how her being a mother makes her better than anyone, also climate change denier until very recently and refused to allow renewables). She was bad and everyone else was worse.

The only reason she's PM now is because Corbyn for many is still unelectable. Many people are saying they prefer Labour to the Conservatives but outright will not want Corbyn in Number 10. They like his policies but things around him (IRA, Hamas, maybe the anti semetism stuff too, plus the "I have no where to sit on train" when he had whole carriages of space to sit on) put people off too. Someone with his policies or close to him but without the baggage is something that would landslide next election.