[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Mormolyce]

He's referring to the 19th century German politician Bismark, not the WW2 battleship. The joke that you can't know less about a WW2 battleship than you do about WW2 doesn't work.

I think we've spotted a rare double wooosh here.

[Noradin]

Wut?

Teleros said he knew less about Bismarck (the 19th century politician) than WW2 stuff, then Mormolyce assumed he meant the WW2 battleship Bismark and mocked him for claiming to know less about WW2 than he does about WW2. Like I said it doesn't work as that's not what he meant (and it's clear that's not what he meant as a previous post references Bismark the chancellor in full).

I understand some posters don't like other posters, but trying to roast the guy for a perceived mistake he never made doesn't work in this instance.



Yes, as above, read the thread.

Can you point me to the exact quote where it becomes clear that this is the case?

Because as far as I was aware it was made quite clear that everyone was speaking about Bismark--the person--and you were the only one who brought up the battleship for whatever reason I cannot imagine.

Well, I can, it is because the implications of the post in question went straight over your head, but I will not spell them out.
That would be against the rules. You may pm me though.

[Acidbaron]

Okay so I haven't been following this thread, and that's my fault. But, this Reuters article probably belongs here.

This is being denied as fear mongering, any major negative effect essentially is. The reason as to why this is the case is simply based on good faith in nothing.

Much like in the US, experts that don't whistle to their tune are ignored and replaced with populist politicians who's main goal appears to be not providing solutions but telling everyone how things should not be done. While in reality the group that can be ignored these so called MP's all pretty much come from money or have money and so while the brexit can and will be disastrous they'll be able to winter through the first months alright while solutions are found, the general public not so much.

But considering they are still pretty much in constant power struggle, i doubt the general well being is high on the priority list. Plus i'm fairly certain people like Mogg with his antique believes would like nothing more than to go back to the time of servitude the time of lord and servants.

Anyway vote will be today i believe, i don't see it passing and i don't see the EU restarting talks while the UK still does not have their house in order, as you have a power struggle within the tories and a labour trying to get in power also, i mean what could possibly go wrong with so much internal conflict and only 4 months left..

[Teleros]

Wut?

The implication was that I know nothing about WW2, so knowing less than that about Bismarck (or indeed anything) would be impressive.

= = =

This is being denied as fear mongering, any major negative effect essentially is. The reason as to why this is the case is simply based on good faith in nothing.

Hardly:

https://order-order.com/2018/11/28/t...e-assumptions/

Economist Andrew Lilico has pointed out that in its analysis, the Treasury makes three remarkable assumptions.

• Assumes there is no economic gain at all from controlling our own policy compared with the EU doing it.
• Assumes there is no gain from “Future domestic policy choices.”
• Assumes GDP gains from new trade deals with non-EU countries are only 10% of what the EU estimated those gains would be.

Oh, and you really should read the paper in question as well, it's... interesting.

"This analysis is not an economic forecast for the UK economy."

"It only considers the potential economic impacts that are specific to EU exit. Leaving the EU is just one of many factors that will influence the UK's economic performance in the long run. Other factors such as the rise of global value chains, the increasing importance of services trade, technological developments, and global demographics are held constant"

So per the Reuters article, GDP growth will be hurt well into the 2030s, but that result is only arrived at by, among other things, assuming there are zero technological developments (to give just one example) between now and then.

Bear in mind too that this is the same Treasury that came out with this gem:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/b...analysis-shows

"The analysis in this document comes to a clear central conclusion: a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower, inflation higher, sterling weaker, house prices would be hit and public borrowing would rise compared with a vote to remain."

You'll pardon me if I think that, once again, the Treasury is engaged in Project Fear scaremongering.

[kaid]

So basically they are making changes that will likely tank their economy for the next 15-20 years because of the mandate of a non binding resolution by a bare majority of the population at that time.

Given the way the british government is handling this I think if they only get a couple decades of down turn that's probably best case scenario. There is a very real chance long term that scottland that voted heavily for remain and one of the reasons they turned down their independence referendum was due to losing EU status may spall off to try to rejoin the EU directly so then you are left with just england and wales and northern ireland being in the UK. The current deal may has on the table is basically lets be in the EU but worse. The only real upside of the current deal for May is they can be more mean to immigrants while losing direct say in laws that they will still be bound by. I really don't see the plan may made surviving parliament so you wind up with a no deal hard brexit or possibly an off the shelf fuck it lets get what norway got and call it a day deal which isn't what anybody who voted for brexit were asking for.

[caervek]

So basically they are making changes that will likely tank their economy for the next 15-20 years because of the mandate of a non binding resolution by a bare majority of the population at that time.

Nope.

We are making changes that will likely tank our economy for the next 15-20 years because of the mandate of a non binding resolution by a bare majority of the people who showed up to vote, which doesn't reflect the views of the population now or at that time.

It's worse xD

[Demolitia]

Nope.

We are making changes that will likely tank our economy for the next 15-20 years because of the mandate of a non binding resolution by a bare majority of the people who showed up to vote, which doesn't reflect the views of the population now or at that time.

It's worse xD

Not to mention the rest of us in the EU will take a hit too thanks to your master plan.

[Slant]

You'll pardon me if I think that, once again, the Treasury is engaged in Project Fear scaremongering.

This argument never had much merit for me. See, take this:

https://news.sky.com/story/bank-of-e...lapse-11566023

Let's assume you're right and they are fearmongering... or, FEAR SCAREMONGERING, because true populism can only survive with the extreme. Anyway, the irony is that these aren't mere commentators. Neither is the Government. Or financial experts. Or, basically, the whole financial sectors and the industrial sectors.

See, whether or not it's fearmongering doesn't matter. Because these are the people making the big decisions for the UK economy. It doesn't matter if you believe them or not. The only thing that matters to the head of BMW to move electrical vehicle R&D and production out of the UK is if he believes it. And he does. And that's why parts of your auto production for electric vehicles are moving out of the UK. By "parts" I mean "all of it", really.

That's why you fail. Because you're not making decisions. You're a nobody. Your opinion is worth shit. And the opinion of a blogshitpage called order-order.com is also shit. I mean, who the fuck is that even?

[Breccia]

because of the mandate of a non binding resolution by a bare majority of the population at that time.

I mean... look, I'm not defending any part of this mess. But the UK did vote. And the UK is following the results of the vote. It sucks for everyone involved, but it's still a democracy.

[Demolitia]

This argument never had much merit for me. See, take this:

https://news.sky.com/story/bank-of-e...lapse-11566023

Let's assume you're right and they are fearmongering... or, FEAR SCAREMONGERING, because true populism can only survive with the extreme. Anyway, the irony is that these aren't mere commentators. Neither is the Government. Or financial experts. Or, basically, the whole financial sectors and the industrial sectors.

See, whether or not it's fearmongering doesn't matter. Because these are the people making the big decisions for the UK economy. It doesn't matter if you believe them or not. The only thing that matters to the head of BMW to move electrical vehicle R&D and production out of the UK is if he believes it. And he does. And that's why parts of your auto production for electric vehicles are moving out of the UK. By "parts" I mean "all of it", really.

That's why you fail. Because you're not making decisions. You're a nobody. Your opinion is worth shit. And the opinion of a blogshitpage called order-order.com is also shit. I mean, who the fuck is that even?

The same Treasury that was forced to activate Defcon 3 right after the referendum and promise they would throw billions at markets if needed to mitigate the chaos? Surely that was project fear back then too.

On a different topic. What happened to the legal impact assessment the government had to share?

[caervek]

I mean... look, I'm not defending any part of this mess. But the UK did vote. And the UK is following the results of the vote. It sucks for everyone involved, but it's still a democracy.

Democracy means that the members of parliament are elected representatives of the people. If our politicians were truly being democratic they would turn round and say "You know what, this is terrible for our country, it's people and the vast majority of them are against it anyway, we're not gonna do it!" not just soldier on into oblivion to line their pockets.

[Acidbaron]

This argument never had much merit for me. See, take this:

https://news.sky.com/story/bank-of-e...lapse-11566023

Let's assume you're right and they are fearmongering... or, FEAR SCAREMONGERING, because true populism can only survive with the extreme. Anyway, the irony is that these aren't mere commentators. Neither is the Government. Or financial experts. Or, basically, the whole financial sectors and the industrial sectors.

See, whether or not it's fearmongering doesn't matter. Because these are the people making the big decisions for the UK economy. It doesn't matter if you believe them or not. The only thing that matters to the head of BMW to move electrical vehicle R&D and production out of the UK is if he believes it. And he does. And that's why parts of your auto production for electric vehicles are moving out of the UK. By "parts" I mean "all of it", really.

That's why you fail. Because you're not making decisions. You're a nobody. Your opinion is worth shit. And the opinion of a blogshitpage called order-order.com is also shit. I mean, who the fuck is that even?

If BMW moves out, that's better for me personally and i'll gladly welcome a new electrical model coming to the netherlands means more work for me and more career growth chances internationally. Didn't hear that yet did hear that BMW position in Oxford was seriously hinged on the brexit deal outcome.

But correct even if the brexit was a great deal for the economy this entire political spiel has internationally hurt the credibility and stability of the UK market, it has shown that the nation based on non binding referendum that was questionably democratic seeing how few of the population actually participated in it could over throw decades of stability, followed by political party struggles and in fighting. Who in their right mind would want to at this point invest in the UK when more stable options are out there?

They might become a more fertile soil in the future but right now it has been scorched and salted and that won't change for the next decade, as what people forget that if Brexit no deal goes through in march, its going to take years to debate all possible deals that's why such a long period is attached to article 50. Time they royally squandered on anything but the actual brexit, including an election.

Now anyone who claims the treasury is merely biased and playing games and prefers a fringe "news site" and i threw up a little just calling it that, says it all really. Not that the person has any actual credibility at this stage and is struggling badly to not come across as a far right lunatic. At the end of the day if they wish to keep fooling themselves, to put it bluntly it's their funeral come march not ours even though their will be blood letting.

[ranzino]

I mean... look, I'm not defending any part of this mess. But the UK did vote. And the UK is following the results of the vote. It sucks for everyone involved, but it's still a democracy.

a nice problem then. is parliament obliged to follow any decision or should parliament, when in doubt, better ask again ?
or is parliament entitled to discard a referendum because it is also tasked to shield country and populace from harm ?

it is a set of multi billion GBP questions, now have fun.

[Demolitia]

a nice problem then. is parliament obliged to follow any decision or should parliament, when in doubt, better ask again ?
or is parliament entitled to discard a referendum because it is also tasked to shield country and populace from harm ?

it is a set of multi billion GBP questions, now have fun.

It looks like experts and businesses are dismissed as fear-mongers, so just get on with it I guess?

[Deleted]

Chair of the pro-Brexit European Research Group Jacob Rees-Mogg is not impressed with Mark Carney today.

“The Bank of England is meant to be a cautious and dignified body - not one that gives out hysterical statements," he said in the House of Commons.

“What they’ve said today lacks all credibility and is a regurgitation of project fear to come project hysteria.

“I think it discredits the governor - who is basically a failed second rate Canadian politician who is talking down the pound which I think is unprecedented.”

Prominent Brexiteer and former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith agrees.

He told the BBC: “The bottom line of both sets of reports is that project fear like Frankenstein’s monster has been resuscitated and is stalking the land.”

Back to dismissing experts and personal attacks for the Brexiteer crowd.

[kaid]

a nice problem then. is parliament obliged to follow any decision or should parliament, when in doubt, better ask again ?
or is parliament entitled to discard a referendum because it is also tasked to shield country and populace from harm ?

it is a set of multi billion GBP questions, now have fun.

The funny thing is the initial vote was specifically a NON BINDING referendum. For some reason they took this non binding referendum of barely half the population and took that as some kind of impermeable word of god that had to be followed. I am pretty sure if you put up what May just announced and said is this the brexit the people want they would not get a majority to vote in favor of it. The problem what leavers wanted in theory and the hard realities of mutually conflicting objectives basically made that impossible without serious problems like restarting the troubles in northern ireland. The people were sold a bill of goods and it is getting more and more obvious the final product is not going to look anything like what people voted for.

[kaid]

I mean... look, I'm not defending any part of this mess. But the UK did vote. And the UK is following the results of the vote. It sucks for everyone involved, but it's still a democracy.

The whole point of having a non binding vote is YOU ARE NOT BOUND BY IT!

[Demolitia]

Back to dismissing experts and personal attacks for the Brexiteer crowd.

Has the European Research Group published any of their findings and methodologies? 2 years of research should have yielded some sort of result, right?

- - - Updated - - -

The whole point of having a non binding vote is YOU ARE NOT BOUND BY IT!

Well Cameron said the result would be honored, as far as I remember

[Noradin]

The point of representative democracy instead of direct democracy is that in complex societies the people largely cannot make informed choices so they choose people they can trust to make informed choices for them.

Unfortunately, as a whole, the UK'S MP have proven to be unworthy of said trust.

[kaid]

Has the European Research Group published any of their findings and methodologies? 2 years of research should have yielded some sort of result, right?

- - - Updated - - -



Well Cameron said the result would be honored, as far as I remember

Yup cameron screwed up in calling for the vote then screwed up treating the vote once it happened as if it was utterly binding because to do otherwise may have had his party lose power because they were stupid enough to hold the vote in the first place and then being a picture of courage he fucked right off and left somebody else to clean up the mess he made.