[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Xarkan]

Serious question eurochums.

With a sweet no deal virtually in the bag, do any of you know which EU banks are at risk of collapse when they no longer have access to the City of London after March 2019?

UK officials have been warning EU27 nations that a "no-deal" Brexit places a high risk of financial disruption to their banks.Sky sources say that the names of specific EU mega-banks especially exposed to and reliant on UK cleared derivatives have been mentioned in discussions.

https://news.sky.com/story/eu-risks-...cials-11578161

Just in case you or I have savings in any of them it might be a good idea to get them out before they are lost due to EU pig headedness. It's already going to cost the EU £39bn, I wouldn't want it to cost you, as individuals, any more.

You suffer enough having to put up with being governed by them as it is.

Considering how many of the banks that were apparanty invoved in the cum-ex deal i say, if those fall then good riddance

And considering how many of them were apparantly involved in laundering money, if those fall then good riddance

They wont though, if any banks lost a step on Brexit within EU it will probably turn out to be smaller and more honest banks

[Mormolyce]

It's not enough for Remain to win though. It needs to win by a decent margin. Monumental shifts cannot happen on slim margins (like Brexit has), they need clear mandates and for the people not to feel betrayed by democracy after the UK politicians and media have hammered them that Brexit is the people's choice for two years, Remain must win with a good margin. Polls do not indicate such

IMO there's little chance of either side winning by more than 2%.

[Mormolyce]

Which means that the UK is fucked on the long term anyhow and that the EU should really question politically if it is worth holding on to it. Because if they remain while nearly half the country wants to leave, wtf? Are they going to ask to leave again in a few years?

By the same token if they leave, the other half feels betrayed.

The UK just needs to get its shit together really.

[Mayhem]

So now the proverbial is hitting the fan (one way or another) should we request a mod change the title of the thread? "Brexit shitshow reaches climax" or something? OR is that presuming too much too soon :P

EU - Brexit: Shit hitting the fan!

Sounds about right.

[Pann]

Leadership contest to go ahead tonight, May is to make a statement in the next few minutes.

- - - Updated - - -

She has confirmed that she will fight the confidence vote.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Leadership contest to go ahead tonight, May is to make a statement in the next few minutes.

- - - Updated - - -

She has confirmed that she will fight the confidence vote.

I'm really not sure what this is going to achieve.

I predict she'll win with a comfortable majority.

[Omega10]

I'm really not sure what this is going to achieve.

I predict she'll win with a comfortable majority.

Please keep us updated on what is going on in Britain. The best place in the US to get information about Brexit is right here. A sad commentary on the state of the US press.

I would expect her to win a comfortable majority, but I am pretty surprised that this no-confidence vote is even happening. When things go crazy - and they are definitely crazy in the UK (well also in the US too)… well very unpredictable things start to happen.

This would be more entertaining if the consequences were not so intense and widespread.

[Pann]

I'm really not sure what this is going to achieve.

I predict she'll win with a comfortable majority.

I have no idea either.

The bookies agree that she'll win, I'm not sure about a comfortable majority though.

What a mess!

[Pann]

If she did lose, what would happen? Would she simply be replaced from within the party? Who governs while there is no PM? Parliament?

She remains as PM until a new leader is elected by the party.

[Northern Goblin]

So wait, you can have a vote on a decision you made two years ago, that the public also voted on last year?

That's not what they've been telling the public during this shitshow.

[Pann]

So by all accounts she'd still be acting PM by the final date for negotiations. I would assume the idea by the ERG is that they replace her and go for No Deal?

No, I would have thought, assuming she loses, that it would be concluded by the beginning of January. As for the ERG I have absolutely no idea what they are playing at.

[Northern Goblin]

No, I would have thought, assuming she loses, that it would be concluded by the beginning of January. As for the ERG I have absolutely no idea what they are playing at.

They want to pull a no deal quick exit before the new EU laws regarding offshore tax dodging come into force, which will hit a few of their more prominent members quite significantly.

[Northern Goblin]

You mean the confidence vote on May or the People's vote? The People's vote has not happened yet but can happen if the government decides so and has broad parliamentary support. As for last year, the General Election was not about Brexit, was it? I mean if it was, what were the Remainers supposed to do, vote Lib Dems in an FPTP election system?

The general election last year was all about Brexit. It was the entire point of calling it, so the public could vote who they wanted handling the negotiations.

Also I switched from Labour to Lib Dem primarily for that reason.

Also the Conservatives picked her as leader two years ago, suddenly two years later they want to change their mind. Will of the people be damned and all.


Just enjoy the delicious irony of it all.

[Mormolyce]

I'm really not sure what this is going to achieve.

I predict she'll win with a comfortable majority.

Seems likely since none of the other numpties are interested in sticking their neck out. They'll piss and moan about Brexit but they won't put their ass on the line for it ahaha.

So yeah, all of this is pointless, Britain's fucked and nothing has changed in two years. May came up with a "deal" that's really just extending the transition period indefinitely, ie kicking the can down the road, and the Brexiteers won't vote for it but they also won't step up and offer any solutions.

Still just running out the clock until no deal. Unless they want to have another referendum - which if leave wins is utterly pointless as well.

[Gibblewink]

The ERG are probably just setting themselves up as the champions of the peoples' will and the true Brexit: "Look how courageously we challenged May even at the last hour in order to bring about the glorious Brexit that you, the people, so clearly wished two years ago. Alas we could not get the votes to secure it."

And then they get to sit on their back benches and rant without having any risk of being forced to take responsibility for anything unpleasant. Seat secured in the next GE - mission accomplished.

[Northern Goblin]

It was all about who could deliver Brexit, not about Brexit itself.

And the public voted with May getting the majority (albeit slender, and smaller than she went in with) in an election she made all about herself.

Now a handful of MPs are trying to change that into something no one voted for. While all the while moaning about how the deal isn't what people voted for.

And also attempting to overturn their own party's vote from 2 years ago, because they don't like the outcome. But tell people that because they don't like the result of another vote from two years ago, they can't have it again.


I'm not sure how you're not seeing the humour in this hypocrisy.

[Bakis]

So the one person that actually had a feasible plan is facing a vote of confidence.
She will lose it and then what, embrace a hard exit with open arms

[Mormolyce]

So wait, you can have a vote on a decision you made two years ago, that the public also voted on last year?

That's not what they've been telling the public during this shitshow.

Referendum was two years ago. Last year, May held an early election (in the UK system the House can call a snap election if a two-thirds majority of members support it) to try to expand her majority, thus putting her in a better position to negotiate Brexit. This hilariously backfired and instead she lost her majority, only clinging to power by forming a coalition with a Northern Ireland party, the DUP.

Now she's put forward a deal and the EU has signed off on it, basically it's a huge compromise where the transition period becomes semi-permanent, they stay in the EU in all but name and it becomes someone else's problem to sort it all out. Pleasing no-one. She needs Parliament to vote to support it but she called off the vote when it was clear they wouldn't.

So now there's probably going to be a vote of no confidence and nobody knows what the fuck is going on.

That's the short version.

- - - Updated - - -

May came up with a deal? You are being too kind, it's far more likely that Barnier handed her a deal.

I mean I think we're being kind calling it a plan at all.

[Pann]

You really think the Tories could get a new leadership they could all agree in that fast? The group backing Remain or observing that their constituencies want a deal, any deal, would not back a Brexiteer making a play for the leadership. If a Remainer would end up leading, they'd probably move to extend and move forward with the People's Vote. If anyone who wants a deal, they would also extend. All they'd do is anger the public that largely seems to just be tired of this.

Yes, I might have been a bit ambitious by saying the beginning of January but it won't take long. For example Cameron resigned on the 24th June and May took over on 11th July.

Given how unpredictable things have been up until this point I really don't think there is anyway to 2nd guess how things will go until we know who is going to put their name forward.

[dribbles]

No, I would have thought, assuming she loses, that it would be concluded by the beginning of January. As for the ERG I have absolutely no idea what they are playing at.

It is about destabilising her, more than she already is, so that they can run the clock out of time to achieve that managed or not no deal.

If she loses, unlikely, job done. If she wins, likely, the smaller the majority of that win the less authority she has for her hated EU deal.

And even if she wins it is likely a further no confidence vote will be tabled by Corbyn very shortly.