[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Pann]

Bollocks. Sample size 1000, probably residents in London. The only party clearly for remain is the Lib Dems. How are they doing in pre EU election polls?

Don't make me laugh....

Assuming the methodology in selecting the polled samples is sound, a sample size of 1,000 is more than adequate.

With that said I would be extremely cautious in taking the result of one poll as being indicative of the feeling across the UK. I also find it somewhat worrisome that, even though this poll shows a remain majority, it still shows that the country is deeply divided on Brexit.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

So we can say with 99% confidence it could be wrong? I'd say 99.9999999999999% it is lol Desperate times for you remainers.

No, the poll says that between 57 and 59% would vote Remain, and between 41 and 43% would vote Leave. That's how polling and confidence intervals works.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Bollocks. Sample size 1000, probably residents in London. The only party clearly for remain is the Lib Dems. How are they doing in pre EU election polls?

Don't make me laugh....

Another thing to add to the list of "things that dribbles doesn't understand how they work". Polling. That list is getting longer by the minute. There really is no beginning to your talents.

[zealo]

So we can say with 99% confidence it could be wrong? I'd say 99.9999999999999% it is lol Desperate times for you remainers.

Considering 1000 people is a fairly substantial sample size, it's likely he meant within 1% margin of error rather than 1% chance of being correct.

[dribbles]

And what were the odds on Remain the day before the referendum? Wasn't it something like 1-12? Sometimes the odds are wrong.

Anyway, I'm comfortable. Even if you get up to 30%, that still reflects that you don't have a mandate. And you never will. This EU election will send the message, and the 2nd referendum will follow it. After that Brexit will be officially off before you know it. Tick, tock.

Wasn't 30% vote share enough to put Theresa May in power? Cheers, you set a low bar....

Assuming the methodology in selecting the polled samples is sound, a sample size of 1,000 is more than adequate.

With that said I would be extremely cautious in taking the result of one poll as being indicative of the feeling across the UK. I also find it somewhat worrisome that, even though this poll shows a remain majority, it still shows that the country is deeply divided on Brexit.

A sample size of 1000 is hardly adequate, especially if in conjunction it was taken in or around the LSE student union bar for example. It's a codswallop poll no more no less.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Wasn't 30% vote share enough to put Theresa May in power? Cheers, you set a low bar....

And another thing for the list of "things that dribbles doesn't understand"....."proportional representation voting". We are used to you showing your ignorance around here dribbles, but not usually with this frequency. Are you off your meds?

[Pann]

A sample size of 1000 is hardly adequate, especially if in conjunction it was taken in or around the LSE student union bar for example. It's a codswallop poll no more no less.

A sample of 1,000 is technically more than adequate. However I would want to see a number of polls with similar results in order to be sure that this is not an outlier or anomaly and I would want to see a much higher majority for remain before proclaiming that remain would be certain to win if another referendum was held.

[Slant]

Sure. The problem in the UK is that many people are not too happy about their livelihoods, communities and struggle a whole lot for such a rich country. I can understand 50% is pissed off and wants to kick in the balls all the remote powers that don't seem to improve their lifestyle. The EU took the blame, yet again.
I guess the vast majority of norwegians don't worry as much about making ends meet, or their pensions, or healthcare so they get to be ore philosophical.

You make it sound like the British are living a Charles Dickens fantasy. That's a ridiculous notion.

[Mayhem]

I support what the Brexit party stands for, why don't you?

Ok, getting closer to an answer. What do they stand for?

I'm not british.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

Ok, getting closer to an answer. What do they stand for?

I'm not british.

Single-Issue party - they want a no-deal brexit, same as UKIP. The main difference is that Brexit members claim that they aren't racist, while UKIP members are happy to show that they are (like that piece of racist neo-nazi BNP shit that goes by the name of Sargon).


In case anybody was wondering, Labour runs under the banner of the Party of European Socialists in European elections and will thus be campaigning on their manifesto.

[Slant]

Charles Dickens was not a fantasy writer, the environments of his book reflect the reality of his era.

The current divergence between rich and poor is actually much more pronounced than in Dickens time.

Ok, so the poor live in third world country conditions, is that it?

[Wermys]

It is a lot more complicated than that. The polls mostly agreed with each other in 2015 and 2017 and got it spectacularly wrong. The outliers (at least in one direction) were actually correct.

The most plausible explanation for this is that there are a small but significant % of voters who just don't trust pollsters and won't speak to them at all seeing them as another manifestation of authority. These people hold extreme anti-authoritarian opinions by the general standards of British society and did not vote until very recently, though they are not tied to party ideology strongly.

In 2015 this group gave the Tories a better result than expected, probably because of its anti-immigrant policies. In 2017 this group caused Corbyn to get a much better result than had widely been predicted. This only makes sense in that these people reflexively vote against the establishment. This happens abroad also. It is nothing to do with actual policy: Trump is a plutocrat but managed to dupe these people into voting for him. Macron is essentially a Blairite centrist but styled himself as an anti-establishment rebel and also picked up this vote.

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Charles Dickens was not a fantasy writer, the environments of his book reflect the reality of his era.

The current divergence between rich and poor is actually much more pronounced than in Dickens time.

Didn't help that Macron opponent was someone unpalatable to anyone in France with brain cells. Given how France using a tiered election system and does a runoff if no one gets above 50 percent.

[Fuiking]

Ok, so the poor live in third world country conditions, is that it?

Not where im from tbh, but have you seen social housing in the UK slant? it makes you shiver like mad. it looks third world.

[dribbles]

Ok, getting closer to an answer. What do they stand for?

I'm not british.

So pleased to be able to help. A minute or so video explains it for you. Feel free to donate...

[Acidbaron]

I like how they have to bring in uncle toms to not come across racist.

Not clicking bigot political youtube vids, would end up spending too much time removing the racist feeds youtube injects in your suggestions.

[Slant]

Not where im from tbh, but have you seen social housing in the UK slant? it makes you shiver like mad. it looks third world.

It does everywhere. The UK doesn't have a monopoly on misery.

[LeGin Tufnel]

So pleased to be able to help. A minute or so video explains it for you. Feel free to donate...

Ugh.....

Absolutely ugh.

In fairness, I've yet to view a political video message that hasn't elicited that response. But that was particularly awful.

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And on to real news: trouble in NI last night. "Dissident republicans" firing on police. A journalist killed. Most "post-conflict" violence has been loyalist on loyalist, republican on republican. Is this the sign of things to come?

[dribbles]

And on to real news: trouble in NI last night. "Dissident republicans" firing on police. A journalist killed. Most "post-conflict" violence has been loyalist on loyalist, republican on republican. Is this the sign of things to come?

All on the EU. If only they hadn't weaponised the Irish border during the Brexit negotiations. What did the EU expect?

[LeGin Tufnel]

All on the EU. If only they hadn't weaponised the Irish border during the Brexit negotiations. What did the EU expect?

How was the Irish border ever not going be an issue of "weaponised" proportions? Nothing to do with the EU or the UK. Just the logical outcome of the UK leaving the EU's institutions.

In fairness, is it possible to draw a connection at this stage? I don't know. But this is a timely reminder of the appalling potential for violence in the region.

But, hey, collateral damage right?

[dribbles]

How was the Irish border ever not going be an issue of "weaponised" proportions? Nothing to do with the EU or the UK. Just the logical outcome of the UK leaving the EU's institutions.

In fairness, is it possible to draw a connection at this stage? I don't know. But this is a timely reminder of the appalling potential for violence in the region.

But, hey, collateral damage right?

Remainers and the EU in collusion stirred up troubles in Ireland in an attempt to frustrate Brexit. No one on the Irish side or the British side were/are ever going to put up a hard border there. Remainers and the EU falsely claimed otherwise and lit the fuse under the Irish tinderbox with the inevitable results.

Someone has blood on their hands and it's not the brexiteers...