[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Twdft]

You can think about Farage what you like (I think he is a giant twat) but he saw that things are not going how he wants it and made a new party.

Where is The Remain Party if people changed their minds? I don't think any of the existing parties is pro-brexit, so if you want to remain you have to make your own. An anti-brexit-march is nice and all, but doesn't change a thing.

[Kronik85]

You can think about Farage what you like (I think he is a giant twat) but he saw that things are not going how he wants it and made a new party.

Where is The Remain Party if people changed their minds? I don't think any of the existing parties is pro-brexit, so if you want to remain you have to make your own. An anti-brexit-march is nice and all, but doesn't change a thing.

The Remain Party is currently ChangeUK and the Lib Dems. Between those 2 and potentially Labour I don't see any merit in creating a "Remain Party".

[LeGin Tufnel]

The Remain Party is currently ChangeUK and the Lib Dems. Between those 2 and potentially Labour I don't see any merit in creating a "Remain Party".

I guess the problem, though, is that they're fielding candidates against each other. Vince Cabal was bemoaning this last night on Question Time

[AeneasBK]

Vince Cabal

Intentional?

[Kronik85]

I guess the problem, though, is that they're fielding candidates against each other. Vince Cabal was bemoaning this last night on Question Time

That's why I'm not exactly happy with ChangeUK being a thing really with them essentially being the Lib Dems but wanting to and jump to the senior roles they thought they had earned in their previous lives but knew they would never get.

If Labour are going to be too chickenshit to come out for Remain then they can go fuck themselves as far as I'm concerned. If that's the future then I'd rather Remainers were able to focus their support rather than have it splintered.

[Dizzeeyooo]

You can think about Farage what you like (I think he is a giant twat) but he saw that things are not going how he wants it and made a new party.

You say that like its a difficult thing to do in his position?

[LeGin Tufnel]

Intentional?

Ahh, oops. Yep - Freudian slip?!

That's why I'm not exactly happy with ChangeUK being a thing really with them essentially being the Lib Dems but wanting to and jump to the senior roles they thought they had earned in their previous lives but knew they would never get.

Definitely for the EP elections, yep. I think D’Hondt still favours larger shares of the vote? So, if the Greens, CHUK and Lib Dems get 27% of the vote between them, they’ll end up with less seats than they would have done had they run under one banner.

But in the long term, and looking to domestic elections, I hope the splintering leads to serious pressure to ditch FPTP.

Will be interesting to see what happens with the manifestos. I think Labour are deciding on Tuesday.

[Kronik85]

But in the long term, and looking to domestic elections, I hope the splintering leads to serious pressure to ditch FPTP.

Will be interesting to see what happens with the manifestos. I think Labour are deciding on Tuesday.

I'm sort of with you. Just again, I don't think ChangeUK helps with that as much as it hinders unless it's going to start doing serious damage to the Cons and Lab rather than just splitting Lib Dem voters like it looks set to do atm.

Looking to future elections then the Lib Dems and ChangeUK are well positioned providing Sturgeon makes the cost of SNP support impossible to pay because it's Indyref2. That leaves minority governments being propped up by both the centre parties who will be demanding electoral reform as their price.

Not sure what I'll be doing if Labour back PV in the manifesto we are about to see. Labour by their own rhetoric should already be demanding a PV but Corbyn won't come out for it so even if does become official policy I don't believe Corbyn will implement even if he gets the chance, zero trust in the man.

So I think I'm pretty decided on Lib Dem for the EU elections and the locals. So I lied. I do know what I'm doing lol.

[Huehuecoyotl]

I'm sort of with you. Just again, I don't think ChangeUK helps with that as much as it hinders unless it's going to start doing serious damage to the Cons and Lab rather than just splitting Lib Dem voters like it looks set to do atm.

Looking to future elections then the Lib Dems and ChangeUK are well positioned providing Sturgeon makes the cost of SNP support impossible to pay because it's Indyref2. That leaves minority governments being propped up by both the centre parties who will be demanding electoral reform as their price.

Not sure what I'll be doing if Labour back PV in the manifesto we are about to see. Labour by their own rhetoric should already be demanding a PV but Corbyn won't come out for it so even if does become official policy I don't believe Corbyn will implement even if he gets the chance, zero trust in the man.

So I think I'm pretty decided on Lib Dem for the EU elections and the locals. So I lied. I do know what I'm doing lol.

I've said on this thread before that they will have to be sensible about PV. They can't put it to a referendum, because there are still too many people with vested interests in the big two that will want to vote against it. It has to be imposed as an improvement to the massively unrepresentative FPTP system, not put forward as an option if people want it. This is too important to get wrong; a proper PV system should mean that we can recognise movements in peoples ideologies (rather than masking them as we do at the moment) while ensuring that people believe their voice is being heard, which should stop the movement to towards extremes at either end of the political spectrum.

I would still be happy if we ended up with a soft Brexit and we get a proper PV system for our General Elections as a result. That would be a trade-off I would be happy to swallow. Sure, it means we end up with parties like UKIP getting more MPs than they do at the moment. But it would also mean we get more Greens and the like. And the end result will be politics that is forced to be collaborative rather than confrontational; the parties that aren't prepared to work with others would simply be sidelined. Politics in the long run should end up being a more grown-up environment. Or at least it will once we get rid of the children that infect it at the moment.

[LeGin Tufnel]

So I think I'm pretty decided on Lib Dem for the EU elections and the locals. So I lied. I do know what I'm doing lol.

lol ok

Whereas I'm now a bit less sure. Pretty much definitely vote independent for locals. Then either Green, Lib Dem or CHUK for EP elections. Will see what they say in their manifestos. I think even if Labour came out in favour of a 2nd ref, it wouldn't be enough to stop me voting for one of the other three.

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I would still be happy if we ended up with a soft Brexit and we get a proper PV system for our General Elections as a result. That would be a trade-off I would be happy to swallow. Sure, it means we end up with parties like UKIP getting more MPs than they do at the moment. But it would also mean we get more Greens and the like. And the end result will be politics that is forced to be collaborative rather than confrontational; the parties that aren't prepared to work with others would simply be sidelined. Politics in the long run should end up being a more grown-up environment. Or at least it will once we get rid of the children that infect it at the moment.

Yes, exactly this.

AV was always a weak and lacklustre nod in the right direction but actually still just favoured the larger parties. It would have got rid of tactical voting, but that's it. I quite like the Additional Member System as an alternative to STV, assuming people can't get their heads round STV.

[Kronik85]

I've said on this thread before that they will have to be sensible about PV. They can't put it to a referendum, because there are still too many people with vested interests in the big two that will want to vote against it. It has to be imposed as an improvement to the massively unrepresentative FPTP system, not put forward as an option if people want it. This is too important to get wrong; a proper PV system should mean that we can recognise movements in peoples ideologies (rather than masking them as we do at the moment) while ensuring that people believe their voice is being heard, which should stop the movement to towards extremes at either end of the political spectrum.

I would still be happy if we ended up with a soft Brexit and we get a proper PV system for our General Elections as a result. That would be a trade-off I would be happy to swallow. Sure, it means we end up with parties like UKIP getting more MPs than they do at the moment. But it would also mean we get more Greens and the like. And the end result will be politics that is forced to be collaborative rather than confrontational; the parties that aren't prepared to work with others would simply be sidelined. Politics in the long run should end up being a more grown-up environment. Or at least it will once we get rid of the children that infect it at the moment.

I agree with everything you've written there but when I wrote "PV" I meant People's Vote not Proportional Vote lol. Hence the stuff about Labour and Corbyn. In the future I'll write in full what I mean before leaping straight to the acronyms!

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lol ok

Whereas I'm now a bit less sure. Pretty much definitely vote independent for locals. Then either Green, Lib Dem or CHUK for EP elections. Will see what they say in their manifestos. I think even if Labour came out in favour of a 2nd ref, it wouldn't be enough to stop me voting for one of the other three.

Alright I might go Green....with the planet being doomed and all that. Just I'm already practically spoiling my ballot in the locals and like you I'm a bit worried about the value of my vote being diminished because of the area I live in and it seems likely the Lib Dems will outperform Green up here.

[Pann]

Latest Survation Poll puts the Brexit Party on 27% of the vote (EP elections), equal with Lab.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/sta...71777399042048

Opinium has both Lab and Brex on 28%

https://twitter.com/britainelects/st...77790701445121

[trathworthas]

I'

Looking to future elections then the Lib Dems and ChangeUK are well positioned

Is this the ChangeUK polling at 3% of the vote?

Did you send them money like Dizzeyroo did? I hear Chukka invests it all in a gambling syndicate.

[trathworthas]

Looking to future elections then the Lib Dems and ChangeUK are well positioned

You know they are on 3% right now? Jesus, give it up already. No one wants a bunch of backstabbing careerist filth that would sell their own grandmothers to get into power, that's the Lib Dems job.

[Kronik85]

You know they are on 3% right now? Jesus, give it up already. No one wants a bunch of backstabbing careerist filth that would sell their own grandmothers to get into power, that's the Lib Dems job.

I'm not voting for 'em so give what up?

If we keep getting hung Parliament's then yeah, them and the Lib Dems will be the king makers yeah. Although thinking on it if we had a GE with the Brexit Party in the mix then I'd put money on a Cons/Brexit coalition Govt as sickening as it would be.

[Pann]

I'm not voting for 'em so give what up?

If we keep getting hung Parliament's then yeah, them and the Lib Dems will be the king makers yeah. Although thinking on it if we had a GE with the Brexit Party in the mix then I'd put money on a Cons/Brexit coalition Govt as sickening as it would be.

Currently Brex are polling at a higher share of the vote than Lib Dem, CHUK and Green combined! I would expect Brexit to have happened (one way or the other) before the next GE and it's possible that support for Brex will fall away once this has happened but if a GE is held before Brexit is completed I think that you're right and a coalition with the Cons is a very real possibility.

[Kronik85]

Currently Brex are polling at a higher share of the vote than Lib Dem, CHUK and Green combined! I would expect Brexit to have happened (one way or the other) before the next GE and it's possible that support for Brex will fall away once this has happened but if a GE is held before Brexit is completed I think that you're right and a coalition with the Cons is a very real possibility.

Yeah I'd imagine if Brexit was delivered then the Cons should stabilise and you would hope the Brexit Party would disband. But delivering Brexit before the next GE? I really don't know. Will have to see how the Cons react to being crushed in the local and the EU elections.

If May goes and they put BoJo the clown in charge I think we will see a GE with the Cons coming out on a No Deal platform and taking us out before the extension expires.

[Pann]

Yeah I'd imagine if Brexit was delivered then the Cons should stabilise and you would hope the Brexit Party would disband. But delivering Brexit before the next GE? I really don't know. Will have to see how the Cons react to being crushed in the local and the EU elections.

If May goes and they put BoJo the clown in charge I think we will see a GE with the Cons coming out on a No Deal platform and taking Benoit before the extension expires.

Technically we're out by the end of the year and the next GE is not until 2022. But... yeah...

There is likely to be protest against the Cons in the EP and local elections but I don't think that either are all that important in the grand scheme of things.

I'm not sure Johnson has much of a chance of becoming the next leader nor do I see the Cons pushing for an early election when May goes whoever takes over and I think the prospect of anyone other than Brexit and UKIP campaigning on no-deal is slim.

[Kronik85]

Technically we're out by the end of the year and the next GE is not until 2022. But... yeah...

There is likely to be protest against the Cons in the EP and local elections but I don't think that either are all that important in the grand scheme of things.

I'm not sure Johnson has much of a chance of becoming the next leader nor do I see the Cons pushing for an early election when May goes whoever takes over and I think the prospect of anyone other than Brexit and UKIP campaigning on no-deal is slim.

Whilst the local and EU elections are considered low priority I think MPs are certainly going to be looking at these results with concern and as a sign as to how they need to pivot in Parliament.

Theories about an early GE abound because no matter who the PM is, it doesn't change the arithmetic in Parliament and currently it's looking like if anything is to change regarding Brexit then the numbers in Parliament need to change.

[Pann]

Whilst the local and EU elections are considered low priority I think MPs are certainly going to be looking at these results with concern and as a sign as to how they need to pivot in Parliament.

Theories about an early GE abound because no matter who the PM is, it doesn't change the arithmetic in Parliament and currently it's looking like if anything is to change regarding Brexit then the numbers in Parliament need to change.

Maybe. But local elections are not nationwide nor is it uncommon for local elections to return results that go against the incumbent government, especially when held midterm, only for voters to vote differently come the next GE. EP elections will be won by the faction; leave or remain, who can persuade the greatest amount of followers to go out and actually cast their votes.

I can't see parliament going for a GE now that Farage is sniffing around and polling high as they are by and large in favour of remain and I don't think they will want to change the parliamentary arithmetic in favour of a result they do not support.