[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Northern Goblin]

The two polls that show both the BrP and the LD taking the lead share of the vote also show them still coming 3/4th because of the way fptp voting systems work.

However if it does go ahead where they dominate the share of the popular vote and still don't hold as many seats combined as the Conservatives, we'll be entering an interesting constitutional crisis.

[Mayhem]

What are you talking about???

That you conveniently always come to help dribbs when he is in need of help.

[LeGin Tufnel]

The Guardian and The Independent have published similar figures for BP seats based on the Opinium poll results...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...atives-opinium

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8940191.html

... on what grounds are you going to dismiss them?

On the grounds that the company they referred to (Electoral Calculus / Martin Baxter) to generate the predictions got the 2019 EP elections completely wrong in several key areas.

E.g., their predicted share of the vote for Labour was 24%, in actual fact it was 14%.

They got the 2017 election wrong too, predicting a Tory majority.

And, yep, to follow on from what others have said: that poll is in direct contrast to the YouGov/Times one, literally last week, that put the Lib Dems in the lead on 24%.

Literally, these polls means fuck all.

All Dribbles is doing by placing unwarranted faith in a specific poll (could be right, could be wrong - who fucking knows?) quoted by a right wing Brexiteer economist known for his extreme views on the subject, is to generate a bit more pressure on Tories to elect a Brexiteer PM. To further their swing to the right. No?

Or you think that the prediction Dribbles quoted from the Twitter feed of said right wing economist is actually likely to be accurate?

Coz, I'll happily bet you £100 to a charity of your choice that, no, that indeed won't be the outcome of any forthcoming general election.

[Northern Goblin]

All Dribbles is doing by placing unwarranted faith in a specific poll (could be right, could be wrong - who fucking knows?) quoted by a right wing Brexiteer economist known for his extreme views on the subject, is to generate a bit more pressure on Tories to elect a Brexiteer PM. To further their swing to the right. No?

In no way defending Dribbles but... isn't this how all polls are used by people with strong political leanings?

[LeGin Tufnel]

In no way defending Dribbles but... isn't this how all polls are used by people with strong political leanings?

Ha… yep, sure.

I’m sure I’ve been guilty of the exact same thing.

Just pointing out that all this is, is a Brexiteer preaching to the converted on his Twitter feed and Dribbles trying to fan the flames to fuel their shared agenda. Nothing more.

Burner will be along shortly to give us an opinion. He’s a stats / polls / betting sort of guy.

[Northern Goblin]

I wouldn't know, I don't tend to read the posts of permabanned ex-members. Just leave them for the blues to handle.

I've lost an awful lot of faith in polls and how we use metrics in predicting results the last few years, the only thing I care for are actual results and breaking them down on vote share, turnout, region etc.

This upcoming by-election is more stastically valuable than any you.gov poll.

[dribbles]

I wouldn't know, I don't tend to read the posts of permabanned ex-members. Just leave them for the blues to handle.

I've lost an awful lot of faith in polls and how we use metrics in predicting results the last few years, the only thing I care for are actual results and breaking them down on vote share, turnout, region etc.

This upcoming by-election is more stastically valuable than any you.gov poll.

I would agree with this, so anyone been foolish enough to bet money on anyone other than the Brexit party smashing it?

No one put their money where their mouth is?

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...lection/winner

Still time to throw it down the drain you know...

Look greeny people, such is the popularity of remain and that's all you stand for right? You can get 250/1 if you Greens win. As Mr Banzai from the TV series of the same name used to say bet bet bet...bwahhahaaaaa

[Kronik85]

Ha… yep, sure.

I’m sure I’ve been guilty of the exact same thing.

Just pointing out that all this is, is a Brexiteer preaching to the converted on his Twitter feed and Dribbles trying to fan the flames to fuel their shared agenda. Nothing more.

Burner will be along shortly to give us an opinion. He’s a stats / polls / betting sort of guy.

To be fair, YouGov should certainly be putting more effort into the "Who Would You Rather Have A Pint With" category.

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I would agree with this, so anyone been foolish enough to bet money on anyone other than the Brexit party smashing it?

No one put their money where their mouth is?

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...lection/winner

Still time to throw it down the drain you know...

Look greeny people, such is the popularity of remain and that's all you stand for right? You can get 250/1 if you Greens win. As Mr Banzai from the TV series of the same name used to say bet bet bet...bwahhahaaaaa

How much can we get on BrP failing to break 40% vote share? I'd be half tempted on that one.

[dribbles]

To be fair, YouGov should certainly be putting more effort into the "Who Would You Rather Have A Pint With" category.

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How much can we get on BrP failing to break 40% vote share? I'd be half tempted on that one.

I'm sure if you ran those kind of % numbers through the sims there'd hardly be any other MP's with seats from any other party in parliament...We can both dream though

[LeGin Tufnel]

've lost an awful lot of faith in polls and how we use metrics in predicting results the last few years, the only thing I care for are actual results and breaking them down on vote share, turnout, region etc.

This upcoming by-election is more stastically valuable than any you.gov poll.

Yep, but this is a worry (from my Remainer’s pov anyway) is that it looks fairly likely BXP will win and that that victory will be roundly seized upon by those of the same inclination in the Tories to forge ahead down the no deal path.

Cue lots of right wing red top hysterical celebration. Get a bit of momentum going, as it were. As Dribbles is doing.

When, in actual, fact: Uh-ehr. It’s a specific demographic http://localstats.co.uk/census-demog...d/peterborough. Try having a byelection in Islington http://localstats.co.uk/census-demog...ndon/islington and see how that turns out.

[Kronik85]

I'm sure if you ran those kind of % numbers through the sims there'd hardly be any other MP's with seats from any other party in parliament...We can both dream though

Both Labour and the Conservatives cleared 40% in Peterborough at the last GE. So no dribs.

[Pann]

On the grounds that the company they referred to (Electoral Calculus / Martin Baxter) to generate the predictions got the 2019 EP elections completely wrong in several key areas.

E.g., their predicted share of the vote for Labour was 24%, in actual fact it was 14%.

They got the 2017 election wrong too, predicting a Tory majority.

And, yep, to follow on from what others have said: that poll is in direct contrast to the YouGov/Times one, literally last week, that put the Lib Dems in the lead on 24%.

Literally, these polls means fuck all.

All Dribbles is doing by placing unwarranted faith in a specific poll (could be right, could be wrong - who fucking knows?) quoted by a right wing Brexiteer economist known for his extreme views on the subject, is to generate a bit more pressure on Tories to elect a Brexiteer PM. To further their swing to the right. No?

Or you think that the prediction Dribbles quoted from the Twitter feed of said right wing economist is actually likely to be accurate?

Coz, I'll happily bet you £100 to a charity of your choice that, no, that indeed won't be the outcome of any forthcoming general election.

They also got a lot things correct and they are aware of the issues that they did not get correct and working to address them but that is certainly a more valid reason than yeah, well he's a Brexit supporter so he must be wrong.

The Yougov poll has nothing to do with anything I wrote.

What Dribbles does or does do is nothing to do with me. I can assure you that there are far more pressing reasons as to why the Cons may choose a Brexiteer as their leader than what someone posts on twitter.

I think that based on the Opinium polling data there is a good chance that if a GE was to be held then the Brexit Party would be the party with the most seats. But yeah, you're probably right - Dribbles did quote it and the guy is a right wing economist so it must be bullshit!

[Northern Goblin]

Yep, but this is a worry (from my Remainer’s pov anyway) is that it looks fairly likely BXP will win and that that victory will be roundly seized upon by those of the same inclination in the Tories to forge ahead down the no deal path.

But again, that's misusing data and utilising poor metrics.

The BrP winning in a leave area or the LD winning a remain area isn't the story to look at, turnouts and vote shares are far more interesting to gauge than what colour the seat is.

Now if the BrP took Islington North or LD won Boston, the winner would be the most interesting part of the data.

I mean it's still huge if the BrP do take a seat, because any time a party gets into Westminster it's noteworthy, but it doesn't necessarily reflect national mood. Nor will it on a LD win.

[Pann]

This upcoming by-election is more stastically valuable than any you.gov poll.

I'm not sure I agree with that. Peterborough is strong leave constituency meaning that the Remain parties are unlikely to get a look in and the Cons although Brexit supporting are also unlikely to voted in after the mess they've made of leaving and given Onasayna's behaviour I don't see Lab being able to preserve their small majority.

Therefore I think Brexit Party are a shoo-in. Which will be spun to support a number of different and opposing viewpoints.

[JohnBrown1917]

Loving all the single issue brexit voters.


Oh boy are they going to get fucked hard.
Watching Nigel talk about how much he wants to switch to the US healthcare system, just perfect.

[Northern Goblin]

I'm not sure I agree with that. Peterborough is strong leave constituency meaning that the Remain parties are unlikely to get a look in and the Cons although Brexit supporting are also unlikely to voted in after the mess they've made of leaving and given Onasayna's behaviour I don't see Lab being able to preserve their small majority.

Therefore I think Brexit Party are a shoo-in. Which will be spun to support a number of different and opposing viewpoints.

Again, you're looking purely at who wins. Vote share is going to be more interesting. Even if the BrP wins, how well the other 4 do, and the order they come in will be interesting indicators.

[LeGin Tufnel]

The BrP winning in a leave area or the LD winning a remain area isn't the story to look at, turnouts and vote shares are far more interesting to gauge than what colour the seat is.

Yep, but that's why I mean though.

That the right wing will seize on the result as being representative of something it plainly isn't. If the BXP get their first MP, then the Sun / Mail / Express's headlines won't be anything other than triumphalistic, will of the people nonsense written specifically to further their minority goal.

If the LD ever win Boston, I will eat Pann's pants.

And, yes Pann, most right wing economists are full of shit. Link me something by one that isn't.

But not now - headache... off to watch Inspector Montalbano and have a choc ice.

[Santti]

Loving all the single issue brexit voters.


Oh boy are they going to get fucked hard.
Watching Nigel talk about how much he wants to switch to the US healthcare system, just perfect.

UK healthcare can't possibly be that bad?

[Kronik85]

I'm not sure I agree with that. Peterborough is strong leave constituency meaning that the Remain parties are unlikely to get a look in and the Cons although Brexit supporting are also unlikely to voted in after the mess they've made of leaving and given Onasayna's behaviour I don't see Lab being able to preserve their small majority.

Therefore I think Brexit Party are a shoo-in. Which will be spun to support a number of different and opposing viewpoints.

Like Northern is saying, the BrP winning this will be the least interesting story. It's going to be a big night for Labours "constructive ambiguity" considering the whole point of it is to court Leavers so a.particularly bad showing here might be that last nudge to get them off the fence.

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UK healthcare can't possibly be that bad?

It could be better and it's going to get a whole lot worse in the aftermath of Brexit with thousands of vacancies and no one to fill them but hey, you don't go bankrupt if you get seriously ill. At least till we sign Trump's totally amazing and super generous free trade deal.

[Deja Thoris]

UK healthcare can't possibly be that bad?

Theres always bad headlines about this or that but healthcare here is excellent. Prolly overloaded a bit but thats the demographics of people getting older.