The Brexit aftermath thread

[Pann]

The likely first place loser in the upcoming leadership election has released this catchy ditty in an effort to catch BoJo

[Northern Goblin]

No-deal is the default state. It will happen, whether or not they have a solution. Worst case, the UK instigating this forces the EU to erect borders. Effectively, the UK would break the GFA for good.

As for their procedures... considering that pretty much their first act in this extension was to go on vacation... and now they're stunned by the PM selection process... man, you've got like three months left, of what were originally 6 months. I wouldn't count on anything useful happening in Westminster.

In that scenario you'll see an emergency revoke happen before hitting default.

The fact they can't resolve it, and breaking the GFA is complete political suicide, means that even to brexiteers in the Conservatives, cancelling A50 even under the guise of "we'll try again later" is preferable to bringing back the IRA.

[Pann]

In that scenario you'll see an emergency revoke happen before hitting default.

The fact they can't resolve it, and breaking the GFA is complete political suicide, means that even to brexiteers in the Conservatives, cancelling A50 even under the guise of "we'll try again later" is preferable to bringing back the IRA.

I highly doubt that A50 will be revoked without a GE or ref. and even those circumstances it is nowhere near a certainty that a pro-EU government would be elected or that remain would win another ref.

[Lynarii]

In that scenario you'll see an emergency revoke happen before hitting default.

The fact they can't resolve it, and breaking the GFA is complete political suicide, means that even to brexiteers in the Conservatives, cancelling A50 even under the guise of "we'll try again later" is preferable to bringing back the IRA.

Is it though? The impression I've gotten from people like Farage and the Brexit party is that they'd be absolutely fine with the IRA and the Troubles returning if it meant they got their way. There seems to be a persistent hope that at some point, someone sane is going to step up and say "Hey, this needs to be taken seriously and done right" but the time for that is long long past already. The concept of 'political suicide' only means anything if the people involved have any political goals beyond 'cash in on the chaos they caused and run with the money'.

[Northern Goblin]

That's because Farage and the BrP have absolutely nothing to lose, and continue to be nothing more than all talk blaggards who lack any sense of responsibility.

When the choices are revoke, a breakup of the union or a return of a long hated terrorist organisation that the public thought were long gone, revoke is the least worse option of the three.

The problem is the Conservatives know they're fucked, regardless of the path they take. They cannot survive any of the above, because all three are unforgivable in the eyes of large swarthes of the country.

So they kick the can down the road for as long as the other 27 let them, but they're also being challenged from within by constant legal and parliamantarian battles that make no deal harder to accept.

Were they ever forced to make a decision, calling the whole thing off is the only way they might recover after a few more decades in the wilderness.

[Slant]

In that scenario you'll see an emergency revoke happen before hitting default.

The fact they can't resolve it, and breaking the GFA is complete political suicide, means that even to brexiteers in the Conservatives, cancelling A50 even under the guise of "we'll try again later" is preferable to bringing back the IRA.

We'll see. I have very little faith in anything concerning the British political class at the moment.

[Northern Goblin]

We'll see. I have very little faith in anything concerning the British political class at the moment.

To be fair there are plenty of politicians who are pushing for remain, much like there are members of the public.

It's unfair to tar them all with the same brush.

[LeGin Tufnel]

That's because Farage and the BrP have absolutely nothing to lose, and continue to be nothing more than all talk blaggards who lack any sense of responsibility.

When the choices are revoke, a breakup of the union or a return of a long hated terrorist organisation that the public thought were long gone, revoke is the least worse option of the three.

The problem is the Conservatives know they're fucked, regardless of the path they take. They cannot survive any of the above, because all three are unforgivable in the eyes of large swarthes of the country.

So they kick the can down the road for as long as the other 27 let them, but they're also being challenged from within by constant legal and parliamantarian battles that make no deal harder to accept.

Were they ever forced to make a decision, calling the whole thing off is the only way they might recover after a few more decades in the wilderness.

You're more optimistic than I am.

Conservative party members believe the following:



These are the people busily casting their votes for BJ. They are blinded by their hatred of the EU. And these are the people calling the shots at the moment. I do not think the momentum is with remainers / the remain parties.

Despite there being a majority in parliament opposed to no deal, there is still no majority for anything else. This is what is tragic about this awful leadership contest. The EU grants us more time to come to sort of compromise - then the Tories waste this time conducting a change of leader that will do absolutely nothing to address the fundamental problems.

It would not surprise me in the least if the UK no deals by accident / default / BJ forcing it through via some archaic parliamentary process.

[Northern Goblin]

There's a difference between the 124,000 card carrying members of the party and the 13.6m people who voted conservative at the last GE, and that's notwithstanding the margin of error over such a small sample size.

[ranzino]

We'll see. I have very little faith in anything concerning the British political class at the moment.

UK may stumble into "no deal" by sheer incompetence and stubborness as they cannot revoke without some preparations.
AFAIK the invoking required a vote by Commons, so revoking should be the same procedure and if PM Johnon is just not in the mood to table such a motion, Commons may run out of time to orchestrate it themselves.

[LeGin Tufnel]

There's a difference between the 124,000 card carrying members of the party and the 13.6m people who voted conservative at the last GE, and that's notwithstanding the margin of error over such a small sample size.

Yep, but it’s not the 13.6m people who are electing Boris, it’s the 124,000. And they are in the driving seat and electing a PM who is suggesting the following. Reuters just now:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-br...-idUKKCN1UB1QQ

By scheduling Queens Speech for early November / late October parliament is prorogued for two weeks prior. Parliament will not be able to stop no deal. Sterling has fallen to its lowest since April 2017.

I’m not sure how you see parliament stopping this if Boris plus a core of hard leavers in his new cabinet really put their minds to it.

[ranzino]

EU found its new commission president now, by a small majority in EU parliament.
Ursula von der Leyen will have to talk with Boris, comes november. and nobody envies her....

[Demolitia]

Awww you could have posted his latest classic today.

Napoleon, communism, EU defence army, destruction of the nation state - it's got it all, go on eurochums spend 2 minutes and educate yourselves, watch our Nigel tell it how it is. Being the 51st state looks the better option don't you think?

Nice edit ... you are missing the part where most of the EP laughed at Farage's ridiculous claims. Her reply to him was quite priceless too.

- - - Updated - - -

EU found its new commission president now, by a small majority in EU parliament.
Ursula von der Leyen will have to talk with Boris, comes november. and nobody envies her....

Boris will be talking to other Council Members. She can just tell him where Barnier's office is.

[dribbles]

EU found its new commission president now, by a small majority in EU parliament.
Ursula von der Leyen will have to talk with Boris, comes november. and nobody envies her....

You say that as though the EU had a democratic process to elect her.

Todays candidate for president that MEP's voted on had the choice of in a secret ballot
A. Ursula or
B. Ursula

That's how N. Korea does it right?

Meanwhile back in the democratic UK at least we had a selection that every citizen could influence.

[Demolitia]

You say that as though the EU had a democratic process to elect her.

Todays candidate for president that MEP's voted on had the choice of in a secret ballot
A. Ursula or
B. Ursula

That's how N. Korea does it right?

Meanwhile back in the democratic UK at least we had a selection that every citizen could influence.

A. Ursula
or
B. Send the Council back to the drawing board

It's a bit like the Brexit referendum, you know?
A. Yes
B. Nope
Jesus .... You make Farage sound subtle with his communist claims ...
The difference here is that B is a credible option in today's vote. Brexit isn't really possible.

[ranzino]

And yet I can barely remember the last time we democratically elected a Prime Minister at this point.

Thought you were done here, anyway?

tory members do the job for everybody else.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

Awww you could have posted his latest classic today.

Napoleon, communism, EU defence army, destruction of the nation state - it's got it all, go on eurochums spend 2 minutes and educate yourselves, watch our Nigel tell it how it is. Being the 51st state looks the better option don't you think?

I thought you wanted Brexit because it would give the UK its sovereignty. You were paranoid about the EU dragging the UK into a "United States of Europe". Now you want to become a member of the United States of America and give up all of that sovereignty?!

You say that as though the EU had a democratic process to elect her.

As previously explained (and apparently ignored by you), you voted for the people who got the vote to elect her. Just like you voted for the people who elected Theresa May as Prime Minister back in 2017 (she was personally elected by less than 20,000 people, and in the likely case that you don't live in Maidenhead, not by you).

Meanwhile back in the democratic UK at least we had a selection that every citizen could influence.

Please do tell me how every citizen is able to influence the selection of the next Prime Minister. Don't forget that you said "EVERY" citizen.

[zealo]

The assumption that Parliament will suddenly collectively come to their senses in October seems like a whole lot of wishful thinking to me, but we'll see.

[Slant]

To be fair there are plenty of politicians who are pushing for remain, much like there are members of the public.

It's unfair to tar them all with the same brush.

I am being fair. I also think the vast majority doesn't know why they push remain. See, I don't care which side you're on, as long as you have an actual reason and can defend it. I don't endorse people voting remain as the heroes if they don't understand jack shit about the EU and therefore have no actual, legitimate reason to vote remain other than it being more convenient.

I never said it was easy with me...

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UK may stumble into "no deal" by sheer incompetence and stubborness as they cannot revoke without some preparations.
AFAIK the invoking required a vote by Commons, so revoking should be the same procedure and if PM Johnon is just not in the mood to table such a motion, Commons may run out of time to orchestrate it themselves.

Well, Parliament has already established that they can force BoJo to table such a motion. They have done it with May. The problem is, Parliament still can't agree on what motion it'd like BoJo to table. So, essentially you are correct, but technically not quite. It's just pedantics at this point, though, the result is the same.

[Northern Goblin]

First important vote is on Thursday, thanks to the House of Lords there is a proposed amendment to the Northern Ireland bill that prevents the current or any future PM of proroguing Parliament to force a no deal Brexit.

Outside of that, former Prime Minister Sir John Major has threatened legal action to prevent Johnson or Gove trying to close parliament in order to force a no deal.

Long story short, whoever is the next PM has a sea of cockblocks to get through between now and next October.