View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. This poll is closed
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #18681
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Do you not think a Labour leaver betrayed by his party would not be tempted to switch and still be as loyal? I would say many with a strong leave/remain view hold a single issue position that transcends loyalties and would be likely to lend their vote as a one off to another party in a GE. Switching from Labour to Tory might be a stretch, but to the BXP perhaps less so...

    Let's see with a specific example of a constituency then from before the BXP was even formed.

    Dudley. Labour WIN in 2017 by 22 votes. Voted by almost 70% to leave the EU in the referendum.

    If Labour come out for a second referendum/remain and the BXP fight that seat at the next GE who wins there now? The leave vote is split and Labour hold? What about if the BXP/Tories formed a pact as a result of the new Labour policy, that changes things no?

    There are dozens of marginal seats in the exact same position with an unpredictable outcome and everything for the BXP to fight for if Boris fails to deliver his Oct 31st do or die promise. The Tories and Labour are in the unenviable position of having everything to lose, for the BXP everything is up for grabs.
    Peterborough voted 61% Leave yet returned a Labour MP.

  2. #18682
    Moderator Northern Goblin's Avatar
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    Well we already saw Labour recently retain a leave heavy seat in a by-election where the BrP ran.

    So it's folly to assume they'll lose seats by default just because they were leave areas.
    Ex-Mod. Technically retired, they just won't let me quit.

  3. #18683
    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Goblin View Post
    Well we already saw Labour recently retain a leave heavy seat in a by-election where the BrP ran.

    So it's folly to assume they'll lose seats by default just because they were leave areas.
    I think when it comes to a General Election voter behaviour will be different (I think it is probable that they will be more cautious and likely to stick with the established parties) to when it is just one seat being voted on.

  4. #18684
    Moderator Northern Goblin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    I think when it comes to a General Election voter behaviour will be different (I think it is probable that they will be more cautious and likely to stick with the established parties) to when it is just one seat being voted on.
    Also would love to see the BrP push a full manifesto that covers Britain beyond Brexit.
    Ex-Mod. Technically retired, they just won't let me quit.

  5. #18685
    The Lightbringer dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Peterborough voted 61% Leave yet returned a Labour MP.
    Would it return a Labour MP in a 2019 general election if the BXP or Tory party had a pact or one or the other chose not to fight that Peterborough seat? Evidence suggests it, from the recent by election, wouldn't.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/922602...r-lisa-forbes/

    The choice facing Boris is to neutralise the BXP by getting brexit done by Oct 31st to the satisfaction of the BXP or the Sun link shows what will happen.

    Tory oblivion, and he won't preside over that.
    13/11/2022 Sir Keir Starmer. "Brexit is safe in my hands, Let me be really clear about Brexit. There is no case for going back into the EU and no case for going into the single market or customs union. Freedom of movement is over"

  6. #18686
    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Goblin View Post
    Also would love to see the BrP push a full manifesto that covers Britain beyond Brexit.
    Much will depend on when the next GE is, if it is within the next few weeks I would not be surprised if it is fought solely on Brexit and based on previous UKIP performances I don't think that manifestos are that important to their voters.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Would it return a Labour MP in a 2019 general election if the BXP or Tory party had a pact or one or the other chose not to fight that Peterborough seat? Evidence suggests it, from the recent by election, wouldn't.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/922602...r-lisa-forbes/

    The choice facing Boris is to neutralise the BXP by getting brexit done by Oct 31st to the satisfaction of the BXP or the Sun link shows what will happen.

    Tory oblivion, and he won't preside over that.
    If Johnson is taking the direction with Brexit that he appears to going then the Brexit Party quite literally have nothing to offer the Cons.

    I don't believe that Johnson even needs to get Brexit done by 31st Oct in order to neutralise the BXP, as long as he appears to be on the side of the Brexit and is able to convince people that he is doing his best to get Brexit through against a disruptive parliament then Farage will not get a look in.

  7. #18687
    Moderator Northern Goblin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Much will depend on when the next GE is, if it is within the next few weeks I would not be surprised if it is fought solely on Brexit and based on previous UKIP performances I don't think that manifestos are that important to their voters.
    Based on previous UKIP manifestos, nor is winning any actual seats.
    Ex-Mod. Technically retired, they just won't let me quit.

  8. #18688
    The Lightbringer dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    If Johnson is taking the direction with Brexit that he appears to going then the Brexit Party quite literally have nothing to offer the Cons.

    I don't believe that Johnson even needs to get Brexit done by 31st Oct in order to neutralise the BXP, as long as he appears to be on the side of the Brexit and is able to convince people that he is doing his best to get Brexit through against a disruptive parliament then Farage will not get a look in.
    The Brexit Party clearly have something to offer the Conservatives. Their very survival. At a price. Get us out of the EU, appearing to do that will not be enough, or see the Tory party destroyed at the next election.

    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Goblin View Post
    Based on previous UKIP manifestos, nor is winning any actual seats.
    They don't need to win seats to deny Tories or Labour some of theirs by splitting the vote. Just them fielding a candidate is enough, as Peterborough demonstrates, to push their Brexit agenda.
    13/11/2022 Sir Keir Starmer. "Brexit is safe in my hands, Let me be really clear about Brexit. There is no case for going back into the EU and no case for going into the single market or customs union. Freedom of movement is over"

  9. #18689
    There she goes....

    "Warm congratulations to Boris."

    Yeah, right.

    No, Theresa, we have no faith in you or your government.

    - - - Updated - - -

    She didn't blub.

  10. #18690
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    The Brexit Party clearly have something to offer the Conservatives. Their very survival. At a price. Get us out of the EU, appearing to do that will not be enough, or see the Tory party destroyed at the next election.
    How exactly are the Brexit Party going to offer survival to the Cons? The Cons have a working majority of two, assuming continued DUP support, how do you propose they get us out of the EU if Parliament opposes them?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    They don't need to win seats to deny Tories or Labour some of theirs by splitting the vote. Just them fielding a candidate is enough, as Peterborough demonstrates, to push their Brexit agenda.
    That makes no sense. If they split the vote as happened in Peterborough then Lab will probably scrape in to No. 10 probably with a SNP coalition and then you can kiss Brexit goodbye.

  11. #18691
    The Lightbringer dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    How exactly are the Brexit Party going to offer survival to the Cons? The Cons have a working majority of two, assuming continued DUP support, how do you propose they get us out of the EU if Parliament opposes them?
    The BXP offers Tory party survival by not fighting the next election on condition Boris delivers Brexit by October 31st, or very very quickly soon after.

    It's all very well saying parliament will oppose no deal by voting no confidence in Boris, Labour could have tabled one for tomorrow, but they didn't. As John Mcdonnell admitted yesterday they would lose it. So now its holibob time for Mp's until September and Boris is safe to plan his WTO brexit strategy with remainers in disarray and all over the place...

    That makes no sense. If they split the vote as happened in Peterborough then Lab will probably scrape in to No. 10 probably with a SNP coalition and then you can kiss Brexit goodbye.
    All the more reason for Boris to Brexit on October 31st and see off the BXP threat and no chance of splitting the Tory leave vote.
    13/11/2022 Sir Keir Starmer. "Brexit is safe in my hands, Let me be really clear about Brexit. There is no case for going back into the EU and no case for going into the single market or customs union. Freedom of movement is over"

  12. #18692
    Quote Originally Posted by LeGin Tufnel View Post
    She didn't blub.
    Did she hum a little tune tho...
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Posting here is primarily a way to strengthen your own viewpoint against common counter-arguments.

  13. #18693
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    The BXP offers Tory party survival by not fighting the next election on condition Boris delivers Brexit by October 31st, or very very quickly soon after.

    It's all very well saying parliament will oppose no deal by voting no confidence in Boris, Labour could have tabled one for tomorrow, but they didn't. As John Mcdonnell admitted yesterday they would lose it. So now its holibob time for Mp's until September and Boris is safe to plan his WTO brexit strategy with remainers in disarray and all over the place...
    How does that offer survival to the Cons? The Cons look like they are going gung-ho for Brexit and if an election was to be held you would likely have the Cons and BXP both going all out for Brexit. In these circumstances what does the BXP offer over the Cons? If the BXP were to do as you think all they would end up doing is splitting the leave vote and opening the door for a remain focused party/coalition.

    I didn't mention anything about a confidence motion nor is there any need for one to be tabled in order to block no-deal as has already been demonstrated.

    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    All the more reason for Boris to Brexit on October 31st and see off the BXP threat and no chance of splitting the Tory leave vote.
    And how will that work? Johnson cannot change the fact that the majority of the House is against no-deal and he cannot leave the EU without their say so. To threaten to destroy the Cons if they don't get their way is entirely counter productive to achieving their stated aim of leaving the EU.

    There has to come a time when Brexit supporters realise that it will take a lot more than shouting "you better do as I say" to achieve Brexit.

  14. #18694
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    There has to come a time when Brexit supporters realise that it will take a lot more than shouting "you better do as I say" to achieve Brexit.
    But but BETRAYAL!, and TRAITORS! and and WILL OF THE PEOPLE!

    Highlights of the day for me were May telling young women they should look at her and realise that they can do anything...except Brexit, obviously. Well, lead effectively aswell, oh and command basic loyalty amongst those you rely on for support...and be liked don't forget that one. But yeah if you don't want to do any of that and want to leave your dream job in shame, be exactly Theresa May young ladies.

    Next up was Boris Johnson telling us all how he was going to unite the country, then immediately branding half the country "...doubters, the doomsters, the gloomsters". Good start, I'm swooning.

    I eagerly await the BoJo cabinet. I took to calling the last ones human simulacra, facsimiles and haemonculi, this lot are primed to be much worse so I'm at a loss really. Pretty confident misanthropes will definitely work its way in but I'm sure it will be woefully inadequate to describe the literal shit demons that will soon occupy the front bench.
    Last edited by Kronik85; 2019-07-24 at 04:53 PM.

  15. #18695
    Over 9000! zealo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    The BXP offers Tory party survival by not fighting the next election on condition Boris delivers Brexit by October 31st, or very very quickly soon after.

    It's all very well saying parliament will oppose no deal by voting no confidence in Boris, Labour could have tabled one for tomorrow, but they didn't. As John Mcdonnell admitted yesterday they would lose it. So now its holibob time for Mp's until September and Boris is safe to plan his WTO brexit strategy with remainers in disarray and all over the place...



    All the more reason for Boris to Brexit on October 31st and see off the BXP threat and no chance of splitting the Tory leave vote.
    Reason they're delaying a vote of no confidence seems to be to give Boris Johnson a chance to play his hand on Brexit in front of Conservative MPs that might not be all that enthusiastic about no-deal.

    Ï wouldn't count such a vote happening and bringing Boris down out just yet.

  16. #18696
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    And how will that work? Johnson cannot change the fact that the majority of the House is against no-deal and he cannot leave the EU without their say so. To threaten to destroy the Cons if they don't get their way is entirely counter productive to achieving their stated aim of leaving the EU.

    There has to come a time when Brexit supporters realise that it will take a lot more than shouting "you better do as I say" to achieve Brexit.
    Except this isn't true. If the 31st of October comes and passes without the Government of the UK asking for and securing an extenssion. Signing the withdrawl agreement. Or canceling Art 50. (Or the EU throwing the UK a bone your incompetent political class seriously doesn't deserve).
    Then the UK will default out of the EU without a deal. No matter what the HoC rattles on about "no deal now being illegal". No deal is the default if nothing is in place. Going "We made it illegal" doesn't make it impossible.
    - Lars

  17. #18697
    Quote Originally Posted by Muzjhath View Post
    Except this isn't true. If the 31st of October comes and passes without the Government of the UK asking for and securing an extenssion. Signing the withdrawl agreement. Or canceling Art 50. (Or the EU throwing the UK a bone your incompetent political class seriously doesn't deserve).
    Then the UK will default out of the EU without a deal. No matter what the HoC rattles on about "no deal now being illegal". No deal is the default if nothing is in place. Going "We made it illegal" doesn't make it impossible.
    Except it is. Johnson needs Parliament to approve the UK leaving the EU either through them signing off the WA (or other agreement) or by the House approving no-deal. He can try to run down the clock and leave without a deal however he has a wafer thin majority and roughly 50 MPs opposed to no-deal within his own party (some of whom say they are prepared to bring their own party down in order to avoid no-deal) and the House will legislate, as they have before, to stop the UK leaving without a deal.

  18. #18698
    I am Murloc!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Except it is. Johnson needs Parliament to approve the UK leaving the EU either through them signing off the WA (or other agreement) or by the House approving no-deal. He can try to run down the clock and leave without a deal however he has a wafer thin majority and roughly 50 MPs opposed to no-deal within his own party (some of whom say they are prepared to bring their own party down in order to avoid no-deal) and the House will legislate, as they have before, to stop the UK leaving without a deal.
    they would have to repeal the Brexit act itself; once it's done it counts as revocation IMHO.

  19. #18699
    Quote Originally Posted by ranzino View Post
    they would have to repeal the Brexit act itself; once it's done it counts as revocation IMHO.
    No, they wouldn't.

  20. #18700
    https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...prime-minister

    X fucking D


    What more needs to be said about the integrity of our new PM.

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