[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Slant]

Both the Senate and the House need to agree.

You're assuming he knows stuff that's not in his Brexiteer bubble? Haha.

[Pann]

Hang on a sec... according to posters in this thread the US is going to insist on a trade deal that includes copious amounts of chlorine washed chickens and hormone riddled beef that will require the UK's food standards to diverge from the EU's thus necessitating border checks whilst at the same time the US will refuse to sign the trade deal that they've insisted upon because the resultant border checks might endanger the Good Friday Agreement?! Seems like the kind of trade deal Schrödinger would come up with.

And it seems Richard Neal has previously issued the same kind of warning regarding a US/EU trade agreement and the Good Friday Agreement to the EU.

'“If America wants a trade agreement with the European Union, which I think is very desirable – I want it – at the same time you are back to the same issue on the border if you do anything that dampens or softens the Good Friday Agreement,” Democratic Congressman Richard Neal was quoted as saying.'

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-br...-idUKKCN1RV0JK

[dribbles]

Just offering the information as general knowledge.

Trump's administration WOULD be the one that would be negotiating any trade agreement since that is a task of the executive. Then they would suggest the relative legislation to both chambers and expect majority votes from both before the agreement can be ratified with the likely necessary amendments. Which does mean that as long as the GFA is violated and at least one chamber is under Democrat control, an FTA between the US and the UK is unlikely.

What is even more unlikely is ANY FTA with the US by pretty much anyone that includes significant access to their service sector. You have better luck in China.

It is the EU who are violating the GFA by insisting on a hard border. The UK are doing no such thing by keeping it open.

US/UK FTA all good to go then, EU/US FTA no such luck.

[Pannonian]

Hang on a sec... according to posters in this thread the US is going to insist on a trade deal that includes copious amounts of chlorine washed chickens and hormone riddled beef that will require the UK's food standards to diverge from the EU's thus necessitating border checks whilst at the same time the US will refuse to sign the trade deal that they've insisted upon because the resultant border checks might endanger the Good Friday Agreement?! Seems like the kind of trade deal Schrödinger would come up with.

And it seems Richard Neal has previously issued the same kind of warning regarding a US/EU trade agreement and the Good Friday Agreement to the EU.

'“If America wants a trade agreement with the European Union, which I think is very desirable – I want it – at the same time you are back to the same issue on the border if you do anything that dampens or softens the Good Friday Agreement,” Democratic Congressman Richard Neal was quoted as saying.'

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-br...-idUKKCN1RV0JK

With the difference being that the EU is okay with it failing, while for the UK it seems to be a big glimmer of hope.

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You have better luck in China.

Now i don't have a very deep knowledge about China, and the opium wars have been over for over 200 years, but the uneven treaties are sill evoked often if they think someone wants to cheat them.

Who were the first to impose these treaties and opened the way for the rest of the world? Oh...

[Mayhem]

Hang on a sec... according to posters in this thread the US is going to insist on a trade deal that includes copious amounts of chlorine washed chickens and hormone riddled beef that will require the UK's food standards to diverge from the EU's thus necessitating border checks whilst at the same time the US will refuse to sign the trade deal that they've insisted upon because the resultant border checks might endanger the Good Friday Agreement?! Seems like the kind of trade deal Schrödinger would come up with.

If there's a trade deal it will have to include the former, but unless the border issue is solved there won't be a trade deal. Not too hard to understand.

And it seems Richard Neal has previously issued the same kind of warning regarding a US/EU trade agreement and the Good Friday Agreement to the EU.

'“If America wants a trade agreement with the European Union, which I think is very desirable – I want it – at the same time you are back to the same issue on the border if you do anything that dampens or softens the Good Friday Agreement,” Democratic Congressman Richard Neal was quoted as saying.'

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-br...-idUKKCN1RV0JK

So? It's not like the EU isn't offering something that would preserve the GFA.

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It is the EU who are violating the GFA by insisting on a hard border. The UK are doing no such thing by keeping it open.

US/UK FTA all good to go then, EU/US FTA no such luck.

It's like you deliberately don't want to understand that there will be no FTA with anyone as long as you have an open border.

[Pann]

With the difference being that the EU is okay with it failing, while for the UK it seems to be a big glimmer of hope.

They are? And is it really a "big glimmer of hope" for the UK? On what do you base this conclusion?

[zealo]

It is the EU who are violating the GFA by insisting on a hard border. The UK are doing no such thing by keeping it open.

US/UK FTA all good to go then, EU/US FTA no such luck.

Just because British Brexiteers hold that it's the EU's fault that GFA breaks doesn't mean other countries will share that view.

The UK will very much be seen as being at fault for it as a consequence of the way the UK handled Brexit by the Democrats in the US.

[Pann]

Just because British Brexiteers hold that it's the EU's fault that GFA breaks doesn't mean other countries will share that view.

The UK will very much be seen as being at fault for it as a consequence of the way the UK handled Brexit by the Democrats in the US.

On what grounds do you think the UK's handling of Brexit breaches the GFA?

[Muzjhath]

On what grounds do you think the UK's handling of Brexit breaches the GFA?

The fact that they didn't take it into account when the whole kerfuffle started?
The fact that they wanted to close borders with the EU? (Which includes Ireland no matter what some whig historians want to think)
That they suggested the backstop as an alternative when the GFA was brought up that they then subsequently killed?
That they haven't offered any solution to it aside from said backstop?

[Dizzeeyooo]

Hang on a sec... according to posters in this thread the US is going to insist on a trade deal that includes copious amounts of chlorine washed chickens and hormone riddled beef that will require the UK's food standards to diverge from the EU's thus necessitating border checks whilst at the same time the US will refuse to sign the trade deal that they've insisted upon because the resultant border checks might endanger the Good Friday Agreement?! Seems like the kind of trade deal Schrödinger would come up with

The agricultural and insurance lobbies in America are the ones with major influence in deciding the US negotiating position, and lots of their initial submissions around increased market access and removal of geographical indicators as a bare minimum starting point have already been published.

The US Congress does not negotiate the deal, they just need to give it final approval before it comes into effect - which they will not do if the UK has ripped up the GFA while leaving.

https://threader.app/thread/1156469384652701697 is excellent if you want to learn more about the Irish issue

[Pann]

The fact that they didn't take it into account when the whole kerfuffle started?
The fact that they wanted to close borders with the EU? (Which includes Ireland no matter what some whig historians want to think)
That they suggested the backstop as an alternative when the GFA was brought up that they then subsequently killed?
That they haven't offered any solution to it aside from said backstop?

Did they not? Even if you are correct this is not a breach of the GFA.

This is not true and the UK has said the exact opposite with regard the UK border on the island of Ireland.

The backstop was suggested by the EU however it only applied to NI, which is a breach of the GFA, it was suggested by the UK that this applied to whole of the UK in order to avoid issues in NI which was rejected by parliament. Again this is not a breach of the GFA.

We have offered solutions which are not acceptable to the EU. However failing to offer an alternative to the backstop is not a breach of the GFA.

Out of your four points; three are not breaches of the GFA and one is completely untrue.

[Dizzeeyooo]

The backstop was suggested by the EU however it only applied to NI, effectively giving NI free access to both the EU and the UK, an amazing thing for their economy (and also the reason why this idea has such widespread support in NI), it was suggested by the UK that this applied to whole of the UK in order to stop the DUP throwing a hissy fit which was then later rejected by parliament because Theresa May was utterly useless at selling what she had managed to get the EU to agree to.

We have endlessly repeated the meaningless phrase "alternative arrangements" while not being able to provide any workable detail on what those arrangements are (outside of meaningless shit like trusted trader schemes which do not come close to fixing the underlying issues) which is not acceptable to the EU.

Some slight corrections required here, I think

[lagiacrux]

wait wait wait ... do i get this correctly?

the uk doesnt want the backstop, but also doesnt want a border at NI? so they just want to have free movement of people from and to the UK? wasnt that one of the main talking points of the brexit campaign?

[Twdft]

wait wait wait ... do i get this correctly?

the uk doesnt want the backstop, but also doesnt want a border at NI? so they just want to have free movement of people from and to the UK? wasnt that one of the main talking points of the brexit campaign?

UK: we want to take back control of our borders
also UK: but we don't actually want a border

[Slant]

Just because British Brexiteers hold that it's the EU's fault that GFA breaks doesn't mean other countries will share that view.

The UK will very much be seen as being at fault for it as a consequence of the way the UK handled Brexit by the Democrats in the US.

It's mk not the EU's job to keep international treaties of the UK for the UK. They are a sovereign nation. They need to learn to put on the big boy pants and uphold their end on their own.

Also neither the EU nor Ireland did anything to start this. That was all UK.

In the end the gfa will never take precedence over EU treaty law. And we are not dealing with the fallout either. So I have no idea what the village idiot here is trying to accomplish.

[Pann]

Latest Westminster voting intention poll from Yougov shows the Cons taking a 10 point lead over Lab, who lead the LDs by 3 points.

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/stat...62916708786177

I don't know whether to be impressed with or worried about the impact Johnson has made on Tory fortunes!

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Boris apparently wants to legalise wacky-baccy so either he'll steal yoof Labour vote or they'll be too stoned to bother voting!

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham...alise-cannabis

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Bad news for would-be British stoners; BoJo doesn't want to legalise cannabis after all.

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...10044907204608

[Mayhem]

Very much value Pann, thanks for that.

[dribbles]

Oh dearie me, more bad news eurochums if the EU refuse to open the WA and ditch the backstop. Not too bad for the, almost fully employed, UK as you can see with its 3% existing unemployment rate. Imagine if you were living somewhere with the current unemployment rate knocking on the door of 10% facing this kind of devastation to jobs.

Will the EU see sense? Or will millions of its citizens not be able to work and afford to put bread on the table for their poor starving children...

[AeneasBK]

Is there 1 country on that image which is losing proportionally more jobs?

TIL Holy shit there are 17m people in the Netherlands :O

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

OK so that map says that in the EU, 1189480 people stand to lose their jobs. Compared to 526830 in the UK. So the UK (1 country) is going to lose half as many jobs due to Brexit as the WHOLE of the EU (27 countries). In terms of per capita, 4 times as many people in the UK will be made redundant due to Brexit as in the EU.

I'm just adding up and dividing the numbers you provide. Thanks @dribbles, for confirming just how fucked the UK is going to be (massively).

Does anybody remember Thatcher's mine closures in the 80s? They only affected 180,000 people. Look how fucked the Midlands and Yorkshire got when they closed. There are still old mining villages where you can buy an entire street for 100 quid.