[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Xarkan]

Oh dearie me, more bad news eurochums if the EU refuse to open the WA and ditch the backstop. Not too bad for the, almost fully employed, UK as you can see with its 3% existing unemployment rate. Imagine if you were living somewhere with the current unemployment rate knocking on the door of 10% facing this kind of devastation to jobs.

Will the EU see sense? Or will millions of its citizens not be able to work and afford to put bread on the table for their poor starving children...

There is likely to be greater issues if the backstop is dropped.. perhaps not for Britain but for the rest of the EU

[Pann]

*Sigh*. First, the 10-point opinion poll is the outlier. You should have worked out by now that papers report the outlier.

Second, there is a honeymoon period after a leader's election-doesn't matter what party. Most people see themselves as fair and do not judge a leader for a certain period of time-then they invariably return to their old prejudices. Additionally the coverage tends to be positive around a new leader, champagn corks popping and happy faces and so forth-again no one remembers this come election day and any effect is very temporary.

So, no, this is exactly what you'd expect and tells us nothing about what impact Johnson will have on Tory fortunes.

It might be, it might not. We'll have to see. But, yeah, no doubt Jezza will ride in to save the day... any minute now!

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With regard to Westminster voting intentions I should point out, seeing as the burner is doing his leave Jeremy alone! shtick, that a recent Opinium poll has the gap a lot closer at just a 2 point lead to the Cons (30% to Lab's 28%).

[Mihalik]

Latest Westminster voting intention poll from Yougov shows the Cons taking a 10 point lead over Lab, who lead the LDs by 3 points.

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/stat...62916708786177

I don't know whether to be impressed with or worried about the impact Johnson has made on Tory fortunes!

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Boris apparently wants to legalise wacky-baccy so either he'll steal yoof Labour vote or they'll be too stoned to bother voting!

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham...alise-cannabis

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Bad news for would-be British stoners; BoJo doesn't want to legalise cannabis after all.

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...10044907204608

Anyone who has kept any track of Boris Johnson's career would know that Boris Johnson has held every position on every issue at one point or another.

Boris Johnson believes in exactly 1 thing and nothing else. His own self interest.

The amazing thing tho... Britain will burn the house to the ground around themselves...and then blame the EU for it while holding a lighter in one hand and a can of gasoline in the other.

[Pann]

Anyone who has kept any track of Boris Johnson's career would know that Boris Johnson has held every position on every issue at one point or another.

Boris Johnson believes in exactly 1 thing and nothing else. His own self interest.

The amazing thing tho... Britain will burn the house to the ground around themselves...and then blame the EU for it while holding a lighter in one hand and a can of gasoline in the other.

Don't you think that this would be better directed at those who stated they would vote for Johnson in the poll? Perhaps you could email Yougov?

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I didn't actually mention Corbyn, for some reason you and several other posters seem absolutely obsessed with him even though this thread is nothing to do with him.

What motivated me to respond was your incessant bullshit reporting of polls, it is really annoying, I'd have thought you'd have learned by now.

To find an accurate picture of the opinion polls, type in "uk opinion poll", you'll get a link to a wikipedia page. The most recent polls have the Tories ahead by 1,2 and 5% aside from the 10-point yougov outlier. There is no reason to wait for a newspaper to tell you what to think, you can see the polls as they are updated.

Calm down. I can assure you there is no-one here who is any where near as obsessed with Corbyn as you. You're his number one!

Well you know the answer to that one - stop creating new accounts and just go away.

I linked the poll because it shows a massive shift from the position the Tories were in just a month or so ago and their popularity will influence their handling of Brexit which I thought it might be of interest - it wasn't meant to upset you or anything.

Even if the Yougov poll is an outlier the Tories are - after mishandling Brexit for the last three years, nearly a decade in power and their adherence to an unpopular austerity policy during this time - still ahead of Labour.

I am not sure why you think I need newspapers to tell me what to think but whatever.

[Pann]

It is a shift of 6%, that isn't "massive", it just a shift, you don't have to add hyperbole to everything, you are not a teenager. Incidentally, despite your Tourette's syndrome inability to stop mentioning Corbyn the movement is between Brexit party and Conservative party, Labour actually gained 1% since Johnson's election.

I'm sorry if the use of the word "massive" is offensive to you although it is telling that you pick up on this rather than making an actual point.

A month ago the Yougov poll showed the Cons on 22%, equal with the BXP, they are now 10 points ahead of their nearest rival, I do not believe that it hyperbolic to describe this as a massive improvement. You are, of course, free to disagree.

Wow! One whole percent! Every little helps, huh?!?

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Actually I was being charitable. You actually linked to someone on twitter who mentioned a yougov poll who linked to the yougov twitter home which doesn't have the poll.

You still don't seem to know what a primary source is obviously.....

Perhaps you should have tried the Yougov website? Maybe, try looking here; https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...em-19-brex-13-

Primary sources and all that...

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Oh Jesus this is like pulling teeth. I mentioned the 1% figure because it indicated no movement at all in Labour's support. I only mentioned it all because for some reason you were foaming at the mouth about Corbyn and Labour even though no one had mentioned his name.

No-one cares. The one percent gain is completely irrelevant and you only mentioned it because you have no answer to my post. I can only imagine that you are projecting your own actions if you believe that my posts in any way suggest that I am foaming at the mouth about Corbyn.

If you look at the wikipedia site then you can get all the primary polling data at one viewing instead of having to rely on newspapers, social media, or checking individual polling sites.

Instead of attacking me why not just listen when I tell you things so you look less stupid in future? Just a thought.

You go on about primary sources, despite the fact I linked the primary source, and then tell me to look at Wikipedia?? For real?!?

Quite honestly I've read a number of your posts and there is nothing that I would want to learn from you. But if I am ever in need of creating a forum account in 10 seconds I'll know where to look.

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Oh! And then he was gone! Like a candle in the wind... and now it looks like I've been talking to myself.

[Kallisto]

It might be, it might not. We'll have to see. But, yeah, no doubt Jezza will ride in to save the day... any minute now!

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With regard to Westminster voting intentions I should point out, seeing as the burner is doing his leave Jeremy alone! shtick, that a recent Opinium poll has the gap a lot closer at just a 2 point lead to the Cons (30% to Lab's 28%).

If we go by other polls it's likely not an outlier. Many brexit party converts basically were polling in such a way a Boris premiership would bring them back into the Tory fold.

Though tbh we might need to wait a few weeks to get an actual clear signal of how things are going. Maybe even put a huge * next to it until all the campaigning begins if Boris pushes for a General election or loses a vote of no confidence in the commons. If Corbyn calls for one... which he might do... any day now.... any day now.

[Gibblewink]

Changes to polling results in cases such as this one are less interesting in the sense of "Oh my goodness the GE is going thataway" than in the sense of how they will affect the politicians and party behaviour. Tories are likely to interpret this kind of results as a "Full speed ahead Boris old chap!" in stead of trying to get him to cool his heels a bit while someone makes a mature person call to Varadkar, Macron and Merkel

[Pann]

If we go by other polls it's likely not an outlier. Many brexit party converts basically were polling in such a way a Boris premiership would bring them back into the Tory fold.

Though tbh we might need to wait a few weeks to get an actual clear signal of how things are going. Maybe even put a huge * next to it until all the campaigning begins if Boris pushes for a General election or loses a vote of no confidence in the commons. If Corbyn calls for one... which he might do... any day now.... any day now.

I would urge caution when reading polling results but it does seem that Johnson is tempting Tory voters who went over the BXP back into the Tory fold. It will be interesting to see if the keeps up.

I think it is quite obvious that Johnson and the Tories are in the middle of an election campaign whilst the other parties don't seem to have even noticed and are doing nothing.

[Slant]

Talking about starving children...



Well worth the slightly elevated unemployment... 300k on 90 million people... oooh, look at us shiver in fear! We've never had to deal with 300k unemployed before! Oh wait, yeah we do... it's called annual fluctuation between summer and winter.

[LeGin Tufnel]

Phillip Hammond must be pretty pissed - the newly-elected populists are busy spending his 'war chest':

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49183324

I think it is quite obvious that Johnson and the Tories are in the middle of an election campaign whilst the other parties don't seem to have even noticed and are doing nothing.

In fairness, that might be because BJ and the Tories aren't actually in the middle of an election campaign. A step too far even with respect to BJ's capacity for bending the truth?

[Calfredd]

Oh! And then he was gone! Like a candle in the wind... and now it looks like I've been talking to myself.

Don't worry he'll be back, and in greater numbers.

[Kallisto]

Don't worry he'll be back, and in greater numbers.

Well he'll have to stop at some point, there's only so many email addresses that can be created to make accounts right?

[Calfredd]

Well he'll have to stop at some point, there's only so many email addresses that can be created to make accounts right?

Not sure, you could ask that "US number 1!" guy.

[zealo]

Well he'll have to stop at some point, there's only so many email addresses that can be created to make accounts right?

If I were to take a stab in the dark, he's probably using some service that just gives you a disposable email directly with no user registration required, such as 10minutemail, if he expects his accounts to be banned shortly afterwards.

[zealo]

Yes, then I bypass the servers with a denial of service attack, all the while I'm typing very fast and windows/lights are flashing for no particular reason while hardcore techno plays in the background, like in films.

Not really sure what your point is, cause disposable emails are in no way anywhere near as ridiculous as what passes for IT in films, just that it saves a lot of time if you're in the business of registering dozens of new accounts one after another on the same site.

[Mayhem]

Drop in sterling is desirable IMHO, it was far too high due to the influence of the city.

Right, an Island that has to import most of what it needs is happy about a drop in their currency, because having to pay more is always better!

[Slant]

Right, an Island that has to import most of what it needs is happy about a drop in their currency, because having to pay more is always better!

Don't try logic. They're too chicken to set Parliament ablaze, so they'll at least make a marginal dent in the pockets of them folks in London... cos that'll teach them bankers!

I like the new protest concept of "furiously starving yourself in protest". It's totally going to work!

[Pann]

In fairness, that might be because BJ and the Tories aren't actually in the middle of an election campaign. A step too far even with respect to BJ's capacity for bending the truth?

What makes you think that?

Since becoming PM Johnson has ramping up the Leave rhetoric and his message seems popular with those who would be tempted to vote for the BXP in particular. He is also promising people whatever he thinks they want to hear - tax cuts, extra police, funding to support business in the event of no-deal, information campaigns, etc. Couple this with the appointment of Dominic Cummings (the brains behind Vote Leave) - who, to paraphrase the Spectator, is the kind of guy you hire when you are looking for a fight and intend to win - as an advisor and it is clear, to me at least, that the Cons are gearing up to fight an election campaign.

I think that come Oct 31st Johnson will find that there has been no movement from the EU and Parliament will insist on seeking an extension, at which point he will go for a GE and try to seek a mandate to take us out without a deal.

I'd be interested to hear if you think I am reading this wrong.

[Kallisto]

Drop in sterling is desirable IMHO, it was far too high due to the influence of the city.

No it was high because we are a heavy import nation. The reason for that is that this country is fucking tiny, meaning it doesn't have the natural resources to produce products that will be used both internally and exported. Last time our economy was in any way good position was just before the 2008 crash. Where was the £? It was basically the strongest it's been for a long time at over $2.

What happens every time the UK economy flounders. People do a run on the pound and it becomes weak. Happened in the early 80s, Happened when the tories fucked up in the early 90s. Happened again when the brexit vote happened. When the economy was good the pound strengthens and people can purchase more. Economy runs good.

If remain had won we'd likely be about $1.70 - $1.80 = £1 due to where it was before everyone got worried about the vote happening and then the second collapse when leave cheated to win. Fuel costs alone would be instead of heading to £1.30 a litre closer to £1, which would make everything else cheaper as costs would be lower. Collapsing strength of a currency has never been good and always been a sign of someone is fucking up big time. Just because it's the UK doesn't mean it's somehow different. This country is not some stupid awesome can do no wrong.

Also the reason why you think Centrists are like mail readers is because you are so far into far left insanity Trotski would look like a rightist to you and your delusional fantasy world.

[Slant]

What makes you think that?

Since becoming PM Johnson has ramping up the Leave rhetoric and his message seems popular with those who would be tempted to vote for the BXP in particular. He is also promising people whatever he thinks they want to hear - tax cuts, extra police, funding to support business in the event of no-deal, information campaigns, etc. Couple this with the appointment of Dominic Cummings (the brains behind Vote Leave) - who, to paraphrase the Spectator, is the kind of guy you hire when you are looking for a fight and intend to win - as an advisor and it is clear, to me at least, that the Cons are gearing up to fight an election campaign.

I think that come Oct 31st Johnson will find that there has been no movement from the EU and Parliament will insist on seeking an extension, at which point he will go for a GE and try to seek a mandate to take us out without a deal.

I'd be interested to hear if you think I am reading this wrong.

No, you're not, unfortunately.

The bit that will be fun is when you guys realise that a GE won't matter at that point. I mean, really, you should've called a GE like.. two months ago if you want it to affect Brexit.