[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Pann]

I thought the leaders of the SNP, Plaid & Greens are open to the idea. It is Swinson who is voicing objections.

No, I totally agree, ref before GE would be the best thing. However, it's completely pointless Swinson pretending that Cobyn's preference isn't the one that will fly. He remains leader of the opposition and commands the loyalty of a sizeable number of his own MPs. She thinks the Euroscepetic Corbynistas are going to vote for Ken Clarke as temp PM? It's insane.

What a fucking mess. I despise them all.

Yeah, attitudes certainly seemed to have softened to the idea over course of the day. (Let's be honest the SNP would put that UKIP racist and rape apologist from Youtube in No. 10 if they thought it would get them Indyref2)

I think Swinson has been foolish but I can see where she is coming from, Corbyn can at best be described as a divisive figure, however the reality is that they (remainer MPs) have left it too late to simply hold a confidence motion before the Brexit deadline and government of national unity is needed to ensure that an election would be held before the UK leaves the EU and convention dictates that it is the leader of the opposition who heads that government.

Swinson can argue that this is an extraordinary situation which requires a different approach but her idea of Clarke or Harman poses the same difficulty for Lab MPs (although I'm sure there are some that would welcome pushing Corbyn part way out of the door) as voting for Corbyn to become PM does for Con MPs.

On a side note I have seen reports that some Con MPs are prepared to back a Corbyn lead Gov which is tremendously brave on their part.

But I think the biggest problem is that this idea is being sold as a way to stop no-deal but it doesn't actually do that. Sure it would stop no-deal on Oct 31st (if successful) but then what? Johnson has been campaigning since taking office - more money for the police, tax cuts, NHS funding, etc - so if they were successful in ousting him they are already on the back foot and he is likely to be re-elected all but ensuring no-deal.

[Slant]

With the pound tanking imports will get more expensive.

Depends on how much it'll tank. I think the pound is halfway done already. I expect no more than .8 to .9 to the Euro, tbh.

[Pannonian]

Imports won't be more expensive, remember the UK is not going to impose customs on anyone. They will be flooded with food from all sides. Some of it may not even be rotten, good times!

When i rented my flat back in 2008, i found some coke bottles epired in 2004 in my basement. Maybe i can sell them to the UK after Brexit?

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I really struggle to understand the logic there.

Another referendum would be a coin-flip at best.

If you have another leave vote, we are stuck with Brexit for the next few decades, no one would be able to seriously suggest a third referendum for a generation.

By contrast if we have brexit and it is a big a disaster as you people are saying, then in 6 months to 2 years you'd have at least a 5-10% swing to remain, which would be enough to guarantee a remain win in a new referendum. Which would have the considerable benefit of being a repeal of a democratic mandate rather than simply ignoring a democratic mandate.

So the choice is between a referendum and a 50% chance of at least 20 years of Brexit, or 2 years of Brexit and a virtually certain repeal. Do the math there.

Basically your strategy is the best possible strategy for Brexiteers, solidifying the result. Farage seemed to be hinting at the possibility of supporting a new referendum for precisely that reason.

What you're ignoring: You cannot revoke Brexit after you've left the EU. You can only apply to the EU again, and that takes a lot of time...

[Slant]

Unfortunately there are quite a lot of clueless Europeans like Slant who simply latch onto any negative story about the UK with no understanding of the underlying issues.

The pound has been massively overvalued for decades due to the strength of financial services. This did not benefit ordinary people as financial services were extremely heavily subsidized by the taxpayer, and caused massive problems for exports and manufacturing.

You have to live here to understand this on a visceral level. You can't read Der Spiegel to get this type of information. For a very long time there has been something obviously broken in the UK economy which is hopelessly skewed towards finance.

The decline in sterling is mostly very welcome to most people for that reason, regardless of what happens with Brexit subsequently. It should be obvious but there is no real reason why the pound should be stronger than the US or the Euro, this is after a small island nation, and the fact it was indicated a problem.

I've not read this in any magazine. I know how inflation works, I know how companies think and I see the currency exchange rate. I don't need to read a magazine to tell you what'll happen: Prices in stores will increase. Wages will not. Quite the opposite, many people will be let go.

Please, tell me again how this is good for the little guy? Who's believing fairy tale stories now? Do you actually believe in trickle down economics? Look at the US, their economical divide is magnitudes bigger than that of the UK currently. How do you think this fucking plays out in 10 years? Bob the cab driver will be rich? Really? Cute.

[Mayhem]

Unfortunately there are quite a lot of clueless Europeans like Slant who simply latch onto any negative story about the UK with no understanding of the underlying issues.

The pound has been massively overvalued for decades due to the strength of financial services. This did not benefit ordinary people as financial services were extremely heavily subsidized by the taxpayer, and caused massive problems for exports and manufacturing.

You have to live here to understand this on a visceral level. You can't read Der Spiegel to get this type of information. For a very long time there has been something obviously broken in the UK economy which is hopelessly skewed towards finance.

The decline in sterling is mostly very welcome to most people for that reason, regardless of what happens with Brexit subsequently. It should be obvious but there is no real reason why the pound should be stronger than the US or the Euro, this is after a small island nation, and the fact it was indicated a problem.

The UK imports most of what it needs. A strong currency helps with that, a weak currency makes things more expensive and production further processing less competitive.

So if you really care for the unskilled, what jobs do you think they will be able to get after a no-deal Brexit? And what will they get paid?

I can't see any reason why the process would take the 7 years it took the Canadians when most of the EU legislation will still be on the statute books. Reverting to an existing module is a lot easier than starting from scratch, 80-90% of the work is already done. There'll be a lot of whining from Europeans but they don't have any reason to cause difficulties as they do with a British trade deal outside the EU.

But even if it did take that long it would still work out better mathematically speaking, especially as a 20 year lockout is extremely conservative.

I'd add this: I don't believe a referendum is a coin-flip. I think another leave win is a virtual certainty if it takes place. There is a refusal on part of remain campaigners to accept that the economic policies of the EU were damaging the unskilled working class and to address it, without that the numbers don't add up. Those people don't show up in polls but they exist and vote.

That would, of course, make for very odd negotiations with other countries if you'd align with EU regulations as much as a member.

[Slant]

That would, of course, make for very odd negotiations with other countries if you'd align with EU regulations as much as a member.

Of course he's glossing over the fact that the first thing the EU will put on the table is... *drumroll* the backstop and the WA in general. Why do they think they can get around that? The denial is amazing.

[Pann]

Swinson appears to have done a u-turn over backing Corbyn to head government.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9061936.html

[Acidbaron]

So every day we are creeping closer to an recession and disaster for the UK and like all the times before, the only thing they seem to be worried about is voting a No deal in on their side as if that has any value at all, makes for good optics i suppose.

Does seem some Brits are taking stability over disaster, 3,454 Britons have obtained Belgian citizenship since the Brexit referendum

Good on them, Welcome to the better side of the north sea!

[Mayhem]

Have you any idea how much money was created digitally out of thin air to support financial services? Think of a number, add your telephone number, quadruple it, add eight zeroes.
Do you know what the banks did with that money? They rolled it over and paid themselves bonuses.What effect do you think that had on inflation?

A strong pound was great for financial services but not for any one else. Why do you think the German economy has done so well? It is because you have a fundamentally strong economy but you don't have the logical consequence of a strong currency. We have the opposite.

A strong currency is only an indicator of economic strength if it is coupled with fundamental value. Britain abandoned fundamental value years ago: we have had an illusion of wealth in this country for years. It isn't anything like Germany where industrial workers had their living standards raised along with the super rich.

You'll lose the distribution chains, you're aware of that? Also, the service sector in the UK contributes about 75bn in taxes and provides over 1 million jobs.

So what is the UK going to produce and export like maniacs to offset the losses of the financial service sector?

[Mayhem]

I'd expect that they would be able to get better pay and more jobs in the short term due to the relatively low supply of unskilled foreign workers. In the longer term they are screwed by increasing automation, regardless of what happens.

I think the point you are making is that the economy in general will be damaged by Brexit, which it likely will. However, unskilled workers are a fairly insular bubble comprising about 6% of the workforce. We know that they did not benefit from the EU, so they likely will benefit after we exit.

So you expect that exports just stay the same?

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Judging by BoJo's choices in cabinet, they will become a tax haven and the financial sector might even gain jobs.

The poor will be fucked even more though.

A tax haven? What? So fewer taxes for the treasury and that wouldn't help at all with the problem that they can't work in foreign countries. A tax haven doesn't need many people.

[Acidbaron]

Judging by BoJo's choices in cabinet, they will become a tax haven and the financial sector might even gain jobs.

The poor will be fucked even more though.

With how nations are now drawing up more laws to target these, good luck. The EU might even make an example out of the UK, hey maybe something good can come out of the brexit after all.

[Pann]

Just when it looked like Swinson was coming around to little Jezza's plan Dominic Grieve comes along and pisses on his chips.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-labour-brexit

[ranzino]

Just when it looked like Swinson was coming around to little Jezza's plan Dominic Grieve comes along and pisses on his chips.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-labour-brexit

they will agree upon something and someone, the plan itself is clear and the new PM is caretaker only.

[Dizzeeyooo]

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/sta...48370746384384

Daily Telegraph politics section coming in hot with leaked papers providing the "first evidence" that the EU may actually stick to what they have been consistently saying for 3 years.

The UK Brexit debate starts to make a lot more sense when you remember this newspaper basically runs the country and its readers picked the Prime Minister.

I look forward to their 2029 headline "First Evidence of Climate Change" written from Telegraph HQ in seaside Leicester.

[Muzjhath]

The banks never benefited any one but themselves. Tell me, and be very precise: what exactly did these banks do to create economic value?

Offer loans so that people could buy a printing press, print books, and seriously get the industrial revolution off the ground? (True, "banks" might not be the exactly correct terms in modern parleance. However it fits)

[ranzino]

BoJo is expected to visit Macron and Merkel tuesday+wednesday ahead of G7 summit, also will talk to Tusk and Varadkar again by phone.
comes the G7 24-26 aug, the Brexit positions should be clear for all to see, no if's and but's
so unless BoJO surprises with fewer red lines the EU could negotiate over, it is ''no deal'' and everybody is just sitting out the remaining time until end of october.

what will UK do then ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...no-deal-brexit

[AeneasBK]

Offer loans so that people could buy a printing press, print books, and seriously get the industrial revolution off the ground? (True, "banks" might not be the exactly correct terms in modern parleance. However it fits)

Wasn't that 2-300 years ago?

[Pann]

@dribbles you're not one of the 2% are you?

https://www.indy100.com/article/brex...rendum-9059276

[Pann]

Not sure I’m following (I’m a bear of very little brain).

BJ is going to pursue no deal and populist fiscal policies. Why will that get him re-elected? Why not just vote Labour?

I'm not sure how this relates to my point that the current proposal only delays no deal rather than stopping it.

Johnson is priming the electorate for an election - he's telling people what they want to hear - but he is also sending out a message of clarity with regard to Brexit that has been lacking and as a result he is rallying leave supporters around him.

To go back to my point, assuming the confidence motion succeeds and Corbyn seeks an extension before calling a GE. The Tories have a very clear message - they will deliver Brexit - Lab have no clear message and the remain vote is split between LDs, Greens, Plaid, etc. Johnson and the Tories will campaign that they want to deliver Brexit and Corbyn and all his cronies from the LDs, etc do not respect democracy. As a result the Cons will, most likely, win.

At this point Johnson will have been elected on a mandate to deliver Brexit and it is likely that he would have a majority, either outright or by a coalition/confidence and supply arrangement, that means that parliament would not have the numbers to go against him. Therefore it would be no-deal or hope the EU reconsider.

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Letwin has ruled out supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49380280

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More from the Tory campaign trail; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49377490

[dribbles]

@dribbles you're not one of the 2% are you?

https://www.indy100.com/article/brex...rendum-9059276

No!

I'm not sure how this relates to my point that the current proposal only delays no deal rather than stopping it.

Johnson is priming the electorate for an election - he's telling people what they want to hear - but he is also sending out a message of clarity with regard to Brexit that has been lacking and as a result he is rallying leave supporters around him.

To go back to my point, assuming the confidence motion succeeds and Corbyn seeks an extension before calling a GE. The Tories have a very clear message - they will deliver Brexit - Lab have no clear message and the remain vote is split between LDs, Greens, Plaid, etc. Johnson and the Tories will campaign that they want to deliver Brexit and Corbyn and all his cronies from the LDs, etc do not respect democracy. As a result the Cons will, most likely, win.

At this point Johnson will have been elected on a mandate to deliver Brexit and it is likely that he would have a majority, either outright or by a coalition/confidence and supply arrangement, that means that parliament would not have the numbers to go against him. Therefore it would be no-deal or hope the EU reconsider.

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Letwin has ruled out supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49380280

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More from the Tory campaign trail; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49377490

Any Tory MP that does support Corbyn against their own party will be kicked out of the Conservatives before the next election. As for Corbyn winning a VONC he can't command the confidence of his own MP's let alone the whole house lol

Boris is busy spending the EU's £39bn, the Labour party are now the austerity party, and the UK have had enough of that.