[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Slant]

Why can't Northern Ireland just become independent of the UK? I don't see the point of pushing for Unification tbh.

That's a solution, sure.

[Slant]

Again, I was simply discussing a tangent about how the prospect of a united Ireland in the future is not exactly a solution and that violence would likely intensify just as much from Unification as it would from the GFA collapsing.

I am sorry if people feel that I was saying that a return to violence in Ireland was OK. What I was saying is that a return to violence in Ireland is a lesser evil than sacrificing the Single Market to preserve the GFA.

And are citizens of Northern Ireland not going to remain EU citizens anyway? They are entitled to dual citizenship to the RoI. So the possible return of the Troubles very much is an EU issue given that it affects EU citizens directly.

I'll say it if you won't. As far as the EU is concerned, inner conflict in a third country is an acceptable price for the EU staying intact and being able to police its outer border. Especially when it's self-inflicted and part of the democratic will of said third country.

There is absolutely no doubt that everyone in the EU and me wish there wasn't people going to be hurt or dying, but yes, we are absolutely taking THAT over the destruction of thet best fucking thing that happened in Europe in the past 2000 years. Yes, the EU, not the magna charta. Deal with it. PEACE in Europe is more important than peace in Northern Ireland. No, I won't even apologize one bit for saying that. The UK needs to set their priorities straight. They are NOT that important anymore. The British Empire is DEAD. Brexiteers wanted out, the UK will be out in about 2 months. And they need to learn to solve they problems on their own really fucking fast.

[Slant]

I am not really sure that a lose-lose scenario of NI becoming a separate state from both the RoI and the UK is a solution but I guess in that case, neither side will be able to make claims they are disenfranchised and maybe their "political" class will actually be forced to accept some responsibility and sit in fucking parliament.

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But is it a third country? A significant number of citizens of NI have dual citizenship with the RoI and are thus EU citizens. So the Troubles will directly affect the communities of EU citizens.

The UK will be a third country. Yes. We have dual citizenships with Turkey, the US and a metric ton of other countries. Doesn't make them part of the EU, either. So what's your point? The legality on this is very, very clear.

And Northern Ireland declaring itself independent and rejoining the EU (which I assume is a given, just like with Scotland) absolutely would solve the problem from our perspective. Part of the reason why we're having this discussion is because to the UK, the integrity of the United Kingdom is just as sacro-sanct as the integrity of the EU is to us.

Take that away by the UK breaking up all on its own and you don't have the logical paradox anymore. Can just align NI with EU rules like the original plan was as a quick fix. Extend the backstop to the Irish channel, which was the first plan we came up with.

[Jessicka]

The loyalist paramilitaries were a) mostly reactive, b) extremely incompetent, c) closer to common criminals than terrorism. They are neither organized not intelligent enough to fight a post-unification battle and did not in EIRE.

You missed the part where they were organised and armed by UK security forces. Obviously under unification, they wouldn't get that.

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*Facepalm* For those who actually care about this issue:

The IRA and ETA worked very closely together. They bought weapons, shared safe houses, trained together, supported each other's political wings. The IRA sold ETA two surface to air missiles that ETA intended to use to bring down the Spanish president's plane. Their co-operation is a major part of the reason why we have transnational co-operation on fighting terrorism: terrorism spreads like a virus across borders.

Anti-imperialist terrorists worked together across Europe and generally speaking much more closely than, say, different franchises of ISIS, do internationally.

The biggest impact on the IRA was Clinton banning their "private" funding from the USA.

[Noradin]

The real issues imo will be legal and those will be a huge headache for the EU considering how many contracts international contracts are signed under UK law.

And then there will be customer data which is saved in the UK and which will pass into a third country without crossing the border.
So, thechnically, we should urgently pass a law that makes it illegal to store any European customer data in the UK just before Brexit.

[Pann]

Ruth Davidson, in her resignation conference, is suggesting that the Queen's Speech and a new session of Parliament could allow the government to bring back the, three times voted down, withdrawal agreement and is urging those who want to avoid no-deal to vote it through!

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The biggest impact on the IRA was Clinton banning their "private" funding from the USA.

This is a good point (and serves to highlight just how complex the situation in Ireland is/was) the IRA held on to their weapons after the GFA was signed and it is was not until the US cracked down on funding that they gave them up.

[Slant]

I don't think the GFA covers independence, only reunification. And the entire premise of this tangent from me was that any scenario other than the GFA standing and NI staying as it is would also be likely to trigger the Troubles, only with loyalist paramilitaries as the initial aggressors instead of the republican ones.
And I am really not certain that Scotland sacrificing free trade with the UK is a fair trade for them to be part of the EU. Unless the EU has a decent FTA with the UK, Scottish independence would likely be catastrophic to their economy. The numbers were questionable when both the UK and an independent Scotland were both within the EU and thus could keep on business as usual, it would not be nearly as simple with a post Brexit UK.

Well, the dude I was responding to talked about Independence. It isn't covered in the GFA, but if Scotland can be independent, I don't see why NI and Wales can't split.

I can't comment on Scotland, they seem to think they can make it. Apart from that, why is Scotland not allowed to make a stupid decision? Why do we only let the guys in London be sovereign?

[Mayhem]

Oh, FFS. Please stop. AEO status has nothing to do with, well, anything you've mentioned.

AEO?

AEO registrations up to Feb 2017:

UK: 537
Germany: 6031

AEO registration up to Jan 2019:

UK: 679
Germany: 6330

Let's not pretend British companies are well prepared.

[Pann]

'Understand members of the Lords have been told to prepare for all night sittings next week - in expectation they will be discussing legislation to block no deal.'

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/s...43679741251584

Could be interesting but I see little point to blocking no-deal unless they are actually going to do something this time.

[Flarelaine]

'Understand members of the Lords have been told to prepare for all night sittings next week - in expectation they will be discussing legislation to block no deal.'

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/s...43679741251584

Could be interesting but I see little point to blocking no-deal unless they are actually going to do something this time.

“Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”

- Samuel Johnson

[dribbles]

Let's hope cause Rees-Mogg is right
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...KCN1VJ0JX?il=0


May should have probably done the same.

Change the government? Sounds like a good idea. General Election on Nov 1st anyone? Westminster voting intention...

CON: 34% (+1)
LAB: 22% (+1)
LDEM: 17% (-2)
BREX: 13% (-1)
GRN: 8% (+1)

via @YouGov, 27 - 28
Chgs. w/ 23 Aug

https://twitter.com/britainelects/st...55993910800384

So do the remainers in parliament have the gumption to call that VONC next week?

[Pann]

“Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”

- Samuel Johnson

Yeah, I'm not sure that is applicable in this instance.

The upcoming Brexit deadline is the third. It is a waste of everyone's time to request another extension and then do nothing once again - if they are going to request an extension they need to act (and accept that the public might necessarily feel the same way) and not just put things off for another few months or get behind Johnson (and hopefully get a deal).

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Change the government? Sounds like a good idea. General Election on Nov 1st anyone? Westminster voting intention...

CON: 34% (+1)
LAB: 22% (+1)
LDEM: 17% (-2)
BREX: 13% (-1)
GRN: 8% (+1)

via @YouGov, 27 - 28
Chgs. w/ 23 Aug

https://twitter.com/britainelects/st...55993910800384

So do the remainers in parliament have the gumption to call that VONC next week?

Ruth Davidson's resignation has potentially weakened the Cons prospects in a GE.

[Flarelaine]

Yeah, I'm not sure that is applicable in this instance.

The upcoming Brexit deadline is the third. It is a waste of everyone's time to request another extension and then do nothing once again - if they are going to request an extension they need to act (and accept that the public might necessarily feel the same way) and not just put things off for another few months or get behind Johnson (and hopefully get a deal).

I mostly agree. BoJo is a committed Leaver, so they would have to solve Brexit for good; getting an extension and leaving him in charge has no point. Having said that, if enough people are truly desparate, we might see a surprise. I do not expect to, but hey.

[dribbles]

Ruth Davidson's resignation has potentially weakened the Cons prospects in a GE.

I don't see how her desire to spend more time with her family, nothing to do with brexit, can do anything but help the party of family values in the UK.

Fair play to her.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Change the government? Sounds like a good idea. General Election on Nov 1st anyone? Westminster voting intention...

CON: 34% (+1)
LAB: 22% (+1)
LDEM: 17% (-2)
BREX: 13% (-1)
GRN: 8% (+1)

via @YouGov, 27 - 28
Chgs. w/ 23 Aug

https://twitter.com/britainelects/st...55993910800384

So do the remainers in parliament have the gumption to call that VONC next week?

42% of the vote ended with a hung parliament in 2017. Do you really fancy your chances of getting any sort of majority with 34% of the vote? And bear in mind that some of the Tories elected with that will STILL be against no-deal. Sure, the Brexit party are showing as 13%, but you can't rely on that turning into many votes in FPTP. They may get a handful. No guarantee that if the Brexit party drops out in some kind of stitch up, that those votes will all end up with the Tories anyway.

All the parties opposed to no-deal would be above 50%, once you include the Scottish and Welsh parties. That is a rock solid mandate to ensure that can't happen, based on the 2016 referendum. Or are you changing the rules again, since they don't suit you?

It is amusing to me that your expectations are now so low that a poll that is this...well, "meh"....can get you so excited.

[Huehuecoyotl]

34+13 you mean. They would easily form a coalition with BXP.

Not with FPTP. Their vote is so evenly spread that 13% would probably only result in 20 or 30 seats. I'm sure someone has done some analysis of this, but it is likely to be very low. The Libs got 12 seats for 7.4% of the vote in 2017.

They wouldn't get close to a majority with those numbers. Especially if the polling proves to be as inaccurate as it was last time.

[dribbles]

42% of the vote ended with a hung parliament in 2017. Do you really fancy your chances of getting any sort of majority with 34% of the vote? And bear in mind that some of the Tories elected with that will STILL be against no-deal. Sure, the Brexit party are showing as 13%, but you can't rely on that turning into many votes in FPTP. They may get a handful. No guarantee that if the Brexit party drops out in some kind of stitch up, that those votes will all end up with the Tories anyway.

All the parties opposed to no-deal would be above 50%, once you include the Scottish and Welsh parties. That is a rock solid mandate to ensure that can't happen, based on the 2016 referendum. Or are you changing the rules again, since they don't suit you?

It is amusing to me that your expectations are now so low that a poll that is this...well, "meh"....can get you so excited.

Your omissions are amusing in that Labour achieved 40% of the vote in competition with the Tories 42% in 2017. Theirs, under Corbyn's illustrious leadership have halved, whilst the tories with Boris delivering the will of the people are still on or around, within the margin of error, 40%.

Nice try but am having a little hue hue hue over that lazy post. Should try harder...

[Jessicka]

Not with FPTP. Their vote is so evenly spread that 13% would probably only result in 20 or 30 seats. I'm sure someone has done some analysis of this, but it is likely to be very low. The Libs got 12 seats for 7.4% of the vote in 2017.

They wouldn't get close to a majority with those numbers. Especially if the polling proves to be as inaccurate as it was last time.

The Brexit Party, like UKIP before it wouldn't manage a single seat. Unlike the Lib Dems, there isn't really anywhere they have a strong presence. Meanwhile Remainer Tories and Labours would actually rather vote Lib Dem where there's prospect of keeping the other out, as they did in the recent By-Election. BP are a protest vote, while Lib Dems are a genuine tactical vote.

It's also clear the Tories would do rather less well in Scotland this time around, again this requires a smaller proportion of the vote to make a much bigger impact on seats.

Would also be nice if Sinn Fein took their seats, or that those voting in those areas voted for someone who would.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Your omissions are amusing in that Labour achieved 40% of the vote in competition with the Tories 42% in 2017. Theirs, under Corbyn's illustrious leadership have halved, whilst the tories with Boris delivering the will of the people are still on or around, within the margin of error, 40%.

Nice try but am having a little hue hue hue over that lazy post. Should try harder...

34% is "within a margin of error" to 40%. Only if your margins can be as lazy as yours are. And if you think back, in 2017 they were polling about 5% higher than what they saw at the election. So that 34% could easily end up being even lower.

But sure, have a nervous chuckle. You know that the numbers don't support your fascist dream of what you want the UK to end up like. You know that the end result is going to be either the softest of Brexits or the cancellation of Article 50 completely. You could have pushed it a bit if your side started this whole process with even an ounce of compromise in mind. But instead you decided that the tiny majority the referendum had was a mandate for all manner of red lines and any form of hard Brexit you fancied. Which meant you could never get anything through, and now you are going to lose.

Three years wasted on this nonsense, which we could have used to fix actual genuine problems. Next time you decide to ask for something to happen, at least have the vaguest fucking clue about what it is you want, and how you want to get it. Maybe then you might succeed.

[Jessicka]

Your omissions are amusing in that Labour achieved 40% of the vote in competition with the Tories 42% in 2017. Theirs, under Corbyn's illustrious leadership have halved, whilst the tories with Boris delivering the will of the people are still on or around, within the margin of error, 40%.

Nice try but am having a little hue hue hue over that lazy post. Should try harder...

The Labour vote shifted to harder Remain parties, not to the BP and not to the Tories.

Lib Dems are much more likely to actually pick up seats where that happened, and take them from Tories in the process.