[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Twdft]

I'd say referenda aren't inherently terrible, but they are limited. First and foremost, they tend to be binary and this is the root of the issue here - Brexit isn't the binary business Leavers managed to cast it as. Also, as a form of direct democracy, they tend to work better in smaller communities. And thirdly, they work where they have a tradition and people treat them sensibly. I cite Switzerland as an example of the latter two points.

When it comes to Brexit, though, a referendum was the grandmother of bad ideas.

The Swiss have actual public debates before referenda, where both sides present arguments in good faith instead of painting lies on a bus.

Btw nonvoters should count too. In a referendum of such consequence as Brexit "leave" should only win with more than 50% of all votes that could be cast not of the ones actually cast.

@ general election: I for one welcome your new overlord, PM Nigel "the twat" Farage ;-p

[Pann]

This has been explained to you multiple times now but for the record: it's because the opposition were going to call one anyway so he loses nothing by asking them to do it, however what he gains by doing it specifically to try and force through a no deal Brexit is the tiniest possibility of that plan working (sadly for him it hasn't) plus the ability to shout for a week or two that it's the other side trying to delay everything when in reality it's him (and many voters will fall for the trick).

It has been the worst kept secret in the UK that Johnson has been gearing up for an election since the moment he walked through the doors of No. 10. I guess he never got your memo.

What does he gain by apparently forcing through no-deal if this will, as you earlier claimed, see him out of office?

Well considering that's exactly what Farage himself suggested on the radio this morning... :P

*EDIT*

For reference he said he was open to Johnson working with him (kek), but as for working with Johnson he has no faith in him to keep his word on a no deal Brexit and given the choice he would rather stay in the EU than accept any deal Johnson negotiated.

Yeah, you're right saying "with a clear policy, we'd be unstoppable", with regard to a Tory/BXP election pact, is exactly the same as saying that he would work against the Tories.

[Shadowferal]

gee...I thought there couldn't be anyone worse than BoJo...Farage though...really?

[Pann]

gee...I thought there couldn't be anyone worse than BoJo...Farage though...really?

Farage will mouth off a lot but he is getting nowhere as a serious force in the house. The BXP may win a seat or two, they might even get into double figures, in the upcoming election, if it ever materialises, put his real power lays in the BXP being able to attract enough votes to swing marginal seats.

[Kallisto]

Ha. Rowan Atkinson did a swift u-turn after the first series. I like Tony Robinson, but as the straight man / feed.

Lady Whiteadder: “Wicked Child! Chairs are the work of Belezabub! At our house Nathaneal sits on a spike. And I sit on Nathaneal. Two spikes would be an extravagance…”

This is kind of where I am with Brexit, now.

We need some ale, false boobs and a turnip!

[Twdft]

Farage will mouth off a lot but he is getting nowhere as a serious force in the house. The BXP may win a seat or two, they might even get into double figures, in the upcoming election, if it ever materialises, put his real power lays in the BXP being able to attract enough votes to swing marginal seats.

Before the referendum I never thought the Kingdom would vote leave. I didn't think Trump winning was possible. Yet here we are. At this point I guess we live in about the strangest timeline.

[Pann]

Before the referendum I never thought the Kingdom would vote leave. I didn't think Trump winning was possible. Yet here we are. At this point I guess we live in about the strangest timeline.

True enough. But, with the benefit of hindsight, wasn't the failure to predict Brexit or Trump a result people of ignoring the signs? Farage has been trying and failing for years to get his foot in the door of the HoC.

But, yes, we do indeed, live in interesting times.

[Shadowferal]

Before the referendum I never thought the Kingdom would vote leave. I didn't think Trump winning was possible. Yet here we are. At this point I guess we live in about the strangest timeline.

I understood the curse, "May you live in interesting times," but I never wanted to.

[Northern Goblin]

Your guess is as good as mine. But the current deal seems to be DOA, so this boils down to either a decision the EC is making or calling A50. Do you honestly think BoJo will pull A50? Commons is taking a break after this week, how long do they have afterwards to force the PM to do something he doesn't want?

Oh, and more importantly, do you think there will be a majority for... "cancelling Brexit"? I'm not so sure. There's a majority against the no-deal, but of those many are still Brexiteers "light" that wouldn't vote for revoking A50, it seems.

Apologies for the slow reply, was away.

Whether Johnson or not wants it is irrelevant, if the EU says no the Commons will force it again through legislature against is will, the same way they compelled him to seek an extension.

I don't believe there is a majority that wants revocation as a preference, I do believe there is a majority that prefers it to no deal, in a Sophie's choice* scenario.


* analogy used not because of your nationality but because it best represents the choice between two unfavourable (putting it exceptionally lightly) outcomes.

[Shadowferal]

I thought this article rather amusing; Boris Johnson takes a wrecking ball to government and gets hit himself

[Mormolyce]

Calling what May had a plan, is an insult to plans everywhere, even Baldrick had a better plan.

In fairness, May's plan was apparently better than Boris's.

I mean, a plan that can't work is kind of better than no plan at all.

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I'd say referenda aren't inherently terrible, but they are limited.

Yeah I'd say the biggest problem with this referendum was the complexity of the issue and the ludicrously uninformed public - something that was deliberately worsened by the lies, disinformation and outright frauds put out by the Brexit campaign.

I think for any future referendum there needs to be a public awareness campaign beforehand, and criminal penalties handed out to people making public false claims.

Even so, I think Brexit is the kind of issue that's simply too complex for the average citizen to vote on. There should be expert panels set up and a proper, workable plan formulated before any action is sent to referendum (if a referendum is held at all). Otherwise you get a pathetic shitshow like this has been.

[Flarelaine]

Yeah I'd say the biggest problem with this referendum was the complexity of the issue and the ludicrously uninformed public - something that was deliberately worsened by the lies, disinformation and outright frauds put out by the Brexit campaign.

I think for any future referendum there needs to be a public awareness campaign beforehand, and criminal penalties handed out to people making public false claims.

Even so, I think Brexit is the kind of issue that's simply too complex for the average citizen to vote on. There should be expert panels set up and a proper, workable plan formulated before any action is sent to referendum (if a referendum is held at all). Otherwise you get a pathetic shitshow like this has been.

Precisely.

At the very least, the original referendum should have been about beginning exploratory negotiations, with a confirmatory referendum scheduled for when everyone sees what deal is on the table.

[Slant]

Apologies for the slow reply, was away.

Whether Johnson or not wants it is irrelevant, if the EU says no the Commons will force it again through legislature against is will, the same way they compelled him to seek an extension.

I don't believe there is a majority that wants revocation as a preference, I do believe there is a majority that prefers it to no deal, in a Sophie's choice* scenario.


* analogy used not because of your nationality but because it best represents the choice between two unfavourable (putting it exceptionally lightly) outcomes.

So, should the EU refuse the extension? The way this is going to be played seems to be the same, whether it's now or 6 months down the road.

[nRes]

At this point though I'm starting to get disappointed in the EU a little bit. It's pretty obvious there are many people in the UK who not only have negative views towards the EU project, but are completely against it. I doubt that number has decreased since the referendum, it may have even increased, we can't know.

I understand there will be an economical impact to the rest of the EU if the UK crashes out, but I think at this point they have become a bit of a tumor and are dragging us down. We have to put this behind us as soon as possible so we can focus on fixing the issues within the EU. So if the brits can't do it, maybe it's time for the EU to speed up their exit. No more extensions, no more hand holding. There are way bigger issues in the world than the tantrums of the UK populace. It's time to move on and let them sort their mess outside of the EU.

[Northern Goblin]

So, should the EU refuse the extension? The way this is going to be played seems to be the same, whether it's now or 6 months down the road.

Personally I hope they don't, because it looks like finally the ball is finally rolling with Johnson as PM and the government having an extreme minority.

I hope that another extension will facilitate a change in Government that would bring in a change to the political declaration and future relationship, allowing the backstop to be removed.

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I doubt that number has decreased since the referendum, it may have even increased, we can't know.

A grim point but statistically most of the 4% majority difference in the 2016 referendum is dead.

[Slant]

Personally I hope they don't, because it looks like finally the ball is finally rolling with Johnson as PM and the government having an extreme minority.

I hope that another extension will facilitate a change in Government that would bring in a change to the political declaration and future relationship, allowing the backstop to be removed.

The political declaration is a PR piece. It has next to zero legal relevance. The future relationship is going to be determined in a future FTA. This is the withdrawal agreement. And it does already allow for the removal of a backstop. It always has.

[Northern Goblin]

Wait what? How would a change in the political declaration warrant removing the backstop?

The political declaration is the relationship after we've left the EU, which could involve remaining in the single market or a customs union.

The backstop is currently in place because of the Conservative redlines against either of those means that there is a lack of solution to the Irish border.

[Pann]

The political declaration is the relationship after we've left the EU, which could involve remaining in the single market or a customs union.

The backstop is currently in place because of the Conservative redlines against either of those means that there is a lack of solution to the Irish border.

The political declaration is just what it says, a political declaration. The Withdrawal Agreement is the treaty that sets out the UK's future relationship with the EU.

If you think that anyone in parliament, leave or remain, is going to agree to the UK being in the SM and CU which would see us essentially remain in the EU but give up having any say how it is run then I really don't know what to say.

You are in essence saying that we will remove the backstop by making the backstop permanent.

[Northern Goblin]

The political declaration is just what it says, a political declaration. The Withdrawal Agreement is the treaty that sets out the UK's future relationship with the EU.

Except it actually doesn't. The Withdrawal agreement is quite literally that, it's the means of exit from the EU, it is not the future relationship.

https://fullfact.org/europe/withdraw...ot-trade-deal/

[Slant]

The political declaration is just what it says, a political declaration. The Withdrawal Agreement is the treaty that sets out the UK's future relationship with the EU.

If you think that anyone in parliament, leave or remain, is going to agree to the UK being in the SM and CU which would see us essentially remain in the EU but give up having any say how it is run then I really don't know what to say.

You are in essence saying that we will remove the backstop by making the backstop permanent.

Wrong. I can't explain it further, I think it would be construed as arrogant if I did.

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Except it actually doesn't. The Withdrawal agreement is quite literally that, it's the means of exit from the EU, it is not the future relationship.

https://fullfact.org/europe/withdraw...ot-trade-deal/

Noice. This is the correct answer, a future FTA is what will determine the future relationship.