[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[caervek]

I can't believe that you think you're having the upper hand in negotiations where you are the one who is about to lose half its customers

Never gonna happen. No deal = WTO rules take over.

Which means WTO rules increase the cost of our exports, and suddenly people decide they don't want to buy X from the UK anymore now it's more expensive than from a different country in the EU.

It's always depressing why people try to use WTO as an answer so something when the very process of doing so demonstrates they don't even know what WTO is. Is't like Mega Drive fans yelling about their consoles Blast Processing ability >.>

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We did & they voted to stick around .

Scotland voted to remain part of the UK and the UK, the 2016 Brexit referendum has now invalidated the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum and it's only right that they be allowed to revisit the decision now the UK government has changed the terms.

The UK's existing membership of the EU was the remain campaigns biggest selling point for remaining part of the EU and was responsible for swinging the vote in favour of continued UK membership, if the Brexit ref had taken place first then Scotland would have already left the UK by now.

[Mayhem]

Yes, but the balance of trade is in our favour.

No, it is not unless you want to tell us that the UK suddenly wants to change its habits and stops importing stuff they want. The problem with being an island in the north atlantic ocean just off the coast of Europe is that pretty much everything apart from Europe is fucking far away.

Never gonna happen. No deal = WTO rules take over.

That means you are going to have a harder time selling, aka losing customers. Customers usually aren't too keen on paying more for stuff they can get elsewhere. Now do tell, what exactly is the UK exporting that can't come from some other place?

There was literally nothing about the EU in the referendum question. Or are you trying to imply Scots are too stupid not to see that they could vote to remain in the UK & then the UK could vote to leave?

True, I meant, they voted to stick around because else they'd have to leave the EU. I guess you see what has changed now compared to then.

[Crispin]

Valid then though. Salmond made a big song and dance about it, so of course the pro-UK side would respond with "no, he's a lying sack of shit" because, well, he was.


3rd world countries like the USA you mean? Or Japan, China et al?

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/i.../eu-trade-map/


The balance of trade is in our favour. Therefore in absolute terms the EU will be hurt more. In proportional terms, no, but all the individual firms selling stuff to the UK won't care nearly as much about the big EU-vs-UK picture as about their own bottom line.

Exactly, valid then, not now, ergo a new Scottish referendum is in place.

The US has several trade deals in place, as do Japan and China. The UK does not. Somehow you'll try to get trade deals in place with the EU, Japan, Australia and the US before 2021


I'd love to see how you come to that conclusion other than "cus I say". In the end the whole "who'll hurt more" approach is stupid, it's a loss on both sides no argument, but the EU is an economic powerhouse, the UK is not a comparison whatsoever, the US and China is.

[dribbles]

Really, the Netherlands eh, I'd love for you to back that one up.

The Netherlands have been pretending to be good Eurochums for ages whilst hiding behind the now non existent UK veto. Without the UK veto backing these smaller nations interests, orphans I believe the EU unofficially call them now their UK Daddy has gone, they have no chance on their own of moderating the French/German power struggle for overall control of the EU and ever closer union.

Exactly, valid then, not now, ergo a new Scottish referendum is in place.

The US has several trade deals in place, as do Japan and China. The UK does not. Somehow you'll try to get trade deals in place with the EU, Japan, Australia and the US before 2021


I'd love to see how you come to that conclusion other than "cus I say". In the end the whole "who'll hurt more" approach is stupid, it's a loss on both sides no argument, but the EU is an economic powerhouse, the UK is not a comparison whatsoever, the US and China is.

In case you hadn't noticed the EU's share of world GDP fell off a cliff just a week ago. The UK is interested in the growth hungry 83% of global trade, not the stagnant ever decreasing EU minority of 17%. To describe the EU as an economic powerhouse now is laughable.

[Fardringham]

In case you hadn't noticed the EU's share of world GDP fell off a cliff just a week ago. The UK is interested in the growth hungry 83% of global trade, not the stagnant ever decreasing EU minority of 17%. To describe the EU as an economic powerhouse now is laughable.

You do know your chart shows no statistically significant effect from Brexit?

[Slant]

Over 3 years later and Brexit supporters are still sticking with the "but who will buy their Mercedes?" argument. Also packed into two paragraphs of questionable arguments are; a lack of understanding of WTO. A lack of understanding of how trade works (have you been listening to Trump on this matter?) and some pretty poor maths.

The EU represents 45% of our exports at the moment. We represent 8% of the EU exports. Which side will be better placed to cope with a complete and total cut-off of trade between those two entities? Especially bearing in mind that if we did actually do that, all our JIT industry would relocate quicker than you can say "oh look, another dead fucking unicorn".

But please, keep going. You are single-handedly confirming pretty much everything that has been said about Brexit supporters on this thread and beyond.

You don't listen. His argument is that if the EU muscles its way in these negotiations, the UK would lose 45% of its customer base and be left in ruins, making the EU feel bad. Of course this means that the EU can't do what it does to everyone else and will concede everything to the UK. Because, as everyone ought to know, the EU really only exists to further the interests of the UK, and the UK only.

Please. Get with the program. Threatening to shoot your own foot is the best negotiating technique when you know that the world revolves around your wellbeing.

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With the “leave the UK and you’ll leave the EU” argument. Not valid anymore and Scotlands desire to self-determine if they want to be part of the EU, is more relevant than ever.

The WTO “deal” you speak of, is what 3rd world countries trade through, it’s the worst scenario. Also the idea that the loss of the UK will hurt the EU the most is laughable.

This week, Boris Johnson gets yelled at by Trump and Japan makes it clear that they want better terms in a trade deal with the UK than they got with the EU.

Desperation is not a position of power.

Just so everyone's clear, the vast majority of third world countries doesn't deal through the WTO platform but has trade agreements in place, being negotiated or about to be signed. NOBODY wants the WTO platform.

This is a map of EU trade agreements. Everyone with a colour has some sort of agreement going, the only guys doing WTO are the ones in grey:




Even most of Africa doesn't like WTO. But here comes the mighty UK, trying to convince everyone and their dog that WTO is the bees knees.

[Fuiking]

The Netherlands have been pretending to be good Eurochums for ages whilst hiding behind the now non existent UK veto. Without the UK veto backing these smaller nations interests, orphans I believe the EU unofficially call them now their UK Daddy has gone, they have no chance on their own of moderating the French/German power struggle for overall control of the EU and ever closer union.

oh Dribbles, you might be wrong, Netherlands always have been eurosceptic to a certain point, you've seen how many times they voted against further intregration? That isnt Eurochumness, thats Euro-sceptic.

[Teleros]

Which means WTO rules increase the cost of our exports, and suddenly people decide they don't want to buy X from the UK anymore now it's more expensive than from a different country in the EU.

Sometimes, sure. On the other hand, if I really want my cheddar or Yorkshire tea or whatever it is, I can always pay more. There are plenty of reasons for continuing to buy from a country even after tariffs go up against them.

the 2016 Brexit referendum has now invalidated the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum

Bwahahahahaha.

No, it is not unless you want to tell us that the UK suddenly wants to change its habits and stops importing stuff they want.

We did when we JOINED the EU. "Oh no, you can keep having New Zealand lamb" (etc etc etc) they lied. We cut ourselves off from a huge amount of trade with the Commonwealth when we joined the EU, now we can take it up again.

The problem with being an island in the north atlantic ocean just off the coast of Europe is that pretty much everything apart from Europe is fucking far away.

It worked in the age of sail, it'll work in the age of container ships.

That means you are going to have a harder time selling, aka losing customers.

Losing customers =/= losing half of your customers. See the point I was originally responding to.

Exactly, valid then, not now, ergo a new Scottish referendum is in place.

As I asked Mayhem, are you saying the Scots are too stupid to realise it was a risk if they voted to remain in the UK?

The US has several trade deals in place, as do Japan and China.

Are you looking at the same map as I am? Because all I'm seeing is "potential" trade agreements, as opposed to actual ones.

The UK does not. Somehow you'll try to get trade deals in place with the EU, Japan, Australia and the US before 2021

Sounds like some solid, ambitious targets.

I'd love to see how you come to that conclusion other than "cus I say".

https://researchbriefings.parliament...mmary/CBP-7851

£66bn trade deficit with the EU. As to individual companies caring more for the bottom line than a UK-vs-EU trade war, do you have any evidence to suggest that said companies would not be rationally self-interested?

the EU is an economic powerhouse, the UK is not a comparison whatsoever, the US and China is.

The EU is a paper tiger because of all the internal divisions. Yes, the GDP figures are impressive - up there with the USA & China - but it's really not that simple. France is struggling with the yellow vests protests (still!), Germany is tottering, the southern European countries are all too often in dire straits (eg 14% overall unemployment in Spain, or ~32% for youth unemployment), there's issues over things like oil/gas supplies from Russia, the Visegrad countries are increasingly trying to do their own thing due to Merkel's invaders, Salvini is poised to take over in Italy (and he's not exactly a fan of things like the Euro)... I mean, it's not great once you get beyond the surface layer. Remember too, that unlike the USA, China, or Japan, the EU is not an even vaguely homogeneous polity, so there are going to be plenty of divisions for the UK to exploit.

Finally, there's the issue of specialisation. Yeah, sure, the EU still has something like 6 times the GDP of the UK... but places like Frankfurt or Paris are just laughable competitors to the financial colossus of London, and that won't change for years at best. Then there's the UK's North Sea oil & gas (talk about a strategic good...), and medicines. You don't think these sectors are going to be of some concern to the EU? Remember too that non-European financial services for example aren't nearly as practical as London because of little things like time zone differences.

This is a map of EU trade agreements. Everyone with a colour has some sort of agreement going, the only guys doing WTO are the ones in grey

Yellow =/= trade agreement in place, just being negotiated, so for WTO terms applying to trade, yellow = grey. Also, there's a divergence between the official EU map I showed (eg trade agreement with Japan not yet implemented) and yours (where it is implemented).

[AeneasBK]

oh Dribbles, you might be wrong, Netherlands always have been eurosceptic to a certain point, you've seen how many times they voted against further intregration? That isnt Eurochumness, thats Euro-sceptic.

I'm terrible at understanding, granted, but isn't that what he just said. They were Eurosceptic but could leave all the stigma safely to the UK veto...

[Mayhem]

We did when we JOINED the EU. "Oh no, you can keep having New Zealand lamb" (etc etc etc) they lied. We cut ourselves off from a huge amount of trade with the Commonwealth when we joined the EU, now we can take it up again.

What are you talking about? In 2015 the UK imported 70% of lamb from New Zealand. You did not cut yourself off from anything, you bumbling buffoon don't know anything about your trading history. Fun fact, 95% of UK lamb are exported to the EU, well guess what you are proposing to lose right about now?

It worked in the age of sail, it'll work in the age of container ships.

Do you know what price increase means?

Losing customers =/= losing half of your customers. See the point I was originally responding to.

You were the one talking about losing customers, I just explained to you the shares and its impact you seemed to not be able to grasp, for some reason 8% is larger than 45% in your mind.

[Crispin]

The Netherlands have been pretending to be good Eurochums for ages whilst hiding behind the now non existent UK veto. Without the UK veto backing these smaller nations interests, orphans I believe the EU unofficially call them now their UK Daddy has gone, they have no chance on their own of moderating the French/German power struggle for overall control of the EU and ever closer union.



In case you hadn't noticed the EU's share of world GDP fell off a cliff just a week ago. The UK is interested in the growth hungry 83% of global trade, not the stagnant ever decreasing EU minority of 17%. To describe the EU as an economic powerhouse now is laughable.

In case you hadnt noticed, the UK only left on paper, you're practicly still in the union. But i love that you use a site titled "Pro-Brexit facts, that's hilarious!
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£66bn trade deficit with the EU. As to individual companies caring more for the bottom line than a UK-vs-EU trade war, do you have any evidence to suggest that said companies would not be rationally self-interested?

Bravo for taking the Trump route on evaluating economies. The EU is a paper tiger because of internal division? Countries disagree, it's not new. Heck the US and China has internal division, you're not viewing them as paper tigers.

But thanks for proving that your arguments arent arguments.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Do you know what price increase means?

Ever since the age of sail, shipping stuff accross oceans has been cheaper than carting it a few tens of km trough land.

In this age of container ships and trailer trucks this hasn't changed. Although the price of land tranaportation was decreased by the advent of the railroad, freight trains are a dying breed on the Old Continent.

Edit : hence me being able to buy fruits from as far as Peru, New Zeland and South Africa cheaper than EU produce...

[Kallisto]

Dude…

There is no longer “we”, it’s “you” and “us”.

That is the tack I’ll be taking in all manner of walks of life. Yes, I wish harm upon the stupid / or not so stupid fuckers who have brought this to bear. Own it.

Eire voting Sinn Fein in today ushers in the break up of the Union.

Bwahahahaha

Still no guarantee with Sinn Fein since even though they are the largest the two other big ones could band together with Greens and Labour to sneak over the line. Coalitions and all. (which is still prefereable to FPTP)

[LeGin Tufnel]

Still no guarantee with Sinn Fein since even though they are the largest the two other big ones could band together with Greens and Labour to sneak over the line. Coalitions and all. (which is still prefereable to FPTP)

Yep, I know.

But it's a shift in the popular vote.

There may be no border poll in the next five years, but there sure as hell will be one within in the next decade.

[dribbles]

Yep, I know.

But it's a shift in the popular vote.

There may be no border poll in the next five years, but there sure as hell will be one within in the next decade.

You remainers are so confused. How does the break up of the Union help your cause? England on its own will never in your lifetime see another Labour government in Westminster.

And as for your bwahhhaaaha over the Sinn Fein result in Ireland, with the same policies as Corbyn on steroids, well that's a win for Boris. When they start taxing the likes of Amazon, Google, Intel currently in Dublin until the pips squeak, where do you think they will go? England with the newly created Singapore upon Thames just across the water from Europe will be the winner.

We both are Englanders aren't we Nigel? I'm with you that the Sinn Fein result is a good one for us...

We both can bwahahahaaa as one. Who'd have thought the Irish would unite us?

[Mayhem]

Ever since the age of sail, shipping stuff accross oceans has been cheaper than carting it a few tens of km trough land.

In this age of container ships and trailer trucks this hasn't changed. Although the price of land tranaportation was decreased by the advent of the railroad, freight trains are a dying breed on the Old Continent.

Edit : hence me being able to buy fruits from as far as Peru, New Zeland and South Africa cheaper than EU produce...

Oh great, another one who thoroughly researched the stuff he talks about.

Currently when something ships to the EU it ships to one of several large ports and is then redistributed. What keeps costs down is, everything is cleared already because it is irrelevant where within the EU the cargo goes. Not anymore with the UK. So either it will ship directly to the UK which will increase costs because obviously not the same amount will be needed compared to the whole of the EU or it will be cleared the same way as currently but with more paperwork in between which in turn increases cost.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Oh great, another one who thoroughly researched the stuff he talks about.

Currently when something ships to the EU it ships to one of several large ports and is then redistributed. What keeps costs down is, everything is cleared already because it is irrelevant where within the EU the cargo goes. Not anymore with the UK. So either it will ship directly to the UK which will increase costs because obviously not the same amount will be needed compared to the whole of the EU or it will be cleared the same way as currently but with more paperwork in between which in turn increases cost.

First, I am not even living in the EU, nor the UK, and we slap tariffs on both EU and non EU products anyway, depending on our own trade agreements, and freely slap taxes on them on our own, notably a low, EU-incompatible VAT rate of 7.7%, which make most goods imported from far away cheaper than in neighboring EU countries, despite being a landlocked country.

Second: ever heard of free ports, of which there are a great number across the EU?

Third, you are blatantly ignoring several specificities the UK:
-the UK, is, well, surrounded by the sea, which makes redistribution from a port on another continent a little bit more complex, and costly than on the mainland
-in turn, being an island, the UK has always been well endowed with harbors
-tonnage from major UK harbors is like an order of magnitude higher than Eurotunnel traffic
-each countries can have differing requirements in matter of imported goods : we don't eat the same stuff, we don't wear the same clothes, we don't have the same electric plugs, we don't drive on the same side of the road, etc...

[Elegiac]

You remainers are so confused. How does the break up of the Union help your cause? England on its own will never in your lifetime see another Labour government in Westminster.

However shall we compete with permanent Tory austerity. /s

And as for your bwahhhaaaha over the Sinn Fein result in Ireland, with the same policies as Corbyn on steroids, well that's a win for Boris. When they start taxing the likes of Amazon, Google, Intel currently in Dublin until the pips squeak, where do you think they will go? England with the newly created Singapore upon Thames just across the water from Europe will be the winner.

Ah yes, because as we all know England is just a hair's breadth from being exactly like Singapore what with all its austerity induced poverty, ramshackle political system, complete lack of any significant economic relevance besides being a big finance center (for now), etc.

We both can bwahahahaaa as one. Who'd have thought the Irish would unite us?

They've done a pretty good job of being a punching bag whenever y'all get the itch to do a colonialism to deflect from domestic problems, so why's this surprising?

I honestly can't recall a period in history where self proclaimed nationalists were so gleeful about the breakup of their empire.

[jonnysensible]

snip

its about capacity and efficiency. physical limits with additional checks and paperwok.

tans are about to gut thier domestic competitiveness

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

its about capacity and efficiency. physical limits with additional checks and paperwok.

tans are about to gut thier domestic competitiveness

Except there is a whole wide world beside the EU and the UK.

Yes the creation of the EU has allowed to bolster trade and circulation of people between its members, but at the same time it has erected additional barriers towards the rest of the world.