13/11/2022 Sir Keir Starmer. "Brexit is safe in my hands, Let me be really clear about Brexit. There is no case for going back into the EU and no case for going into the single market or customs union. Freedom of movement is over"
Will Brexit split the UK now? Scotland leaving? Will Northern Ireland leave and Ireland unite? Wales and England will stand alone?
If the EU passes a new law by the end of Q2, you have to implement it in domestic law. If you want to charge a 200% tariff on French wine, you can't. If you want to stop Europeans entering the country to work, you can't. If you want to act against somebody's rights, the ECHR can bitch slap Johnson into accepting their decision. Doesn't sound like you left yet, bud.
Wait, you didn't read the WA? You would know this if you had...
YOU JUST AGREED WE HADN'T YET A FEW POSTS AGO.
ALSO, WHY ARE YOU SHOUTING SO MUCH? ARE YOU ANGRY THAT YOU STILL HAVEN'T GOT YOUR BREXIT UNICORN?
It's like the slightly deaf racist old relative that you have to pretend to find amusing at Christmas. While they witter on about how terrible it is that they aren't allowed to call people darkies any more. "It's political correctness gone mad. Bring back National Service I say. I got buggered 5 times a night, but it made a man of me".
When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.
Originally Posted by George CarlinOriginally Posted by Douglas Adams
Yes, you have "left" one of the 3 economic powerhouses on the planet. Pointing out macron's politicaL struggles at home is like poitIng out Sturgeon's. How does it matter?
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It's even better/worse. A mandate is given to the commission, which then has all powers within this mandate. And the commission is basically an army of experts and lawyers the UK can never dream to match, or ever possibly emotionally appeal to. The UK will have to talk to Barnier again from now on not Macron or Merkel.
The likelihood of the EU passing a law between now and the end of Q2 is slim to non-existent and even if it pass a law there would be an implementation period which would likely mean that the UK would not have to implement it.
Oh and the ECHR is nothing to do with the EU.
When you read this, remember that I'm looking in from the outside... to us in the EU it matters not who calls the shots, what we see is "the UK" acting as a unit. So maybe you'll understand that I was not even surprised a little bit, considering how often the UK changed its position, how indecisive and divided they were on practically every aspect of Brexit and how the quality of the personnel we dealt with (the Government) deteriorated from bad to worse to utterly worst option available.
The second we saw May getting bullied by her own party and moving back and forth on her demands (!) from the EU I think most people considered the United Kingdom to be an untrustworthy partner. Coming to negotiations with demands is... weird. The US was politely turned down for the very same reason. The EU is all about cooperation and compromises that benefit both. The UK, being a major player in the EU, should have known this.
All of these things will be reflected in the upcoming negotiations:
1. The EU dislikes being bullied and will stonewall any attempt at being forced into an undesireable position. As Turkey has found out, the EU is very happy to "negotiate" for 20 years if need be.
2. The EU knows very well about the power imbalance. And the EU is very much compelled by its member states to get the best possible outcome of this "event" for the member states. The EU is not yet a self-serving purpose. It's very much a servant of the EU member states and by extension the population of the EU. And the sentiment across the continent seems to be more akin to "no quarter" than "mercy on them". Especially after the decades of WW2 rhetoric against Germany, the disdain for France in general, the disrespect towards Spain and the recent prejudicial claims about basically any Eastern European nation.
3. The EU is well aware of anything going on in the UK. A fact British politicians, so engrossed and drunken on their perceived importance, do not seem to be aware of. We watch every single publically available Parliamentary session, we watch most interviews. And the EU officials most likely have people just analysing British politics at this stage to gauge how far the British can be pushed or how serious they are about certain claims. And this also means that the EU is very well aware of the time limit and will use it as leverage. Something Johnsson seems to think is in his favour. For some reason he thinks the EU owes him or that the EU would take pity on the British people, the Remainers at least. What he doesn't understand is that the EU has internalized the cut already. They're done with it. And the British people and British concerns are no longer the business of the EU. That's the ironic bit.. once you leave and tell everyone to fuck off, don't expect them to not heed your wish and actually stop being concerned about your wishes/needs.
But hey, we have Dribbles and the other scared Brexiteers harping on about how nobody cares what Germany thinks. Well, that's right. But the EU cares what Germany and all the other member states think. And right now, they are uniting against an outside force trying to bully them. As history has demonstrated time and again, nothing unites people better than outside pressure. So please, keep it up Brexiteers. You're doing more to stabilise and unite Europe than anything else could.
In fact, right now I'd say the EU is immune to pretty much all of Putin's attempts to disrupt the EU and destabilise it. I'm happy to speculate about these issues as people know, so I'll throw it out there... as a scheme to counteract Putin's efforts, this couldn't have been planned better. Who knows...
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I think he was talking about BoJo outright ignoring the WA, hasn't he said so bluntly?
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Considering that the people posting here are from all kinds of countries, saying we got a pretty good cross section of the EU's average opinion is not that far fetched. Certainly the big opinion streams here don't diverge enough from the polls you guys seem to believe almost religiously in. Also, don't forget that unlike you, most people here can actually back up what they say and don't just pull stuff out of thin air or simply deny the validity of arguments without a proper counter argument.
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Don't fall for the hyperbolic British phrasing. It's not sanctions as much as it's regulated consequences that every member state has to suffer if they diverge. In the simplest terms: If the UK dicks around and diverges in financial services, they will lose access to the EU's financial markets. Sure, you could say it's a sanction of sorts, but it's more appropriate to call that a regulatory necessity.
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Quoted without further comment, because I don't feel I'm qualified to comment on EU economic affairs.
British exports to EU could fall 14% in no-deal scenario: UN study
British exports to the European Union could fall by as much as 14% if the two sides are unable to strike a free trade deal and could be 9% lower even if an agreement is reached, a United Nations study found.
The imposition of tariffs under a no-deal scenario would crimp trade, with the effect amplified by so-called non-tariff measures (NTMs) such as quotas, licensing and regulatory measures protecting health, safety and the environment.
NTMs would double the negative impact of tariffs and could lead to an overall $32 billion hit to British exports, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) study released on Tuesday.
The agriculture, food and beverages, and wood and paper sectors seem particularly exposed, it found, with a weaker impact on electrical and machinery, metal products, chemicals, and textiles and apparel.
NTMs affect more than 80% of trade in developed counties and more than 90% in the European Union, it noted.
Even if a “standard” free trade agreement emerged from the talks, British exports to the EU could still drop by 9%, dealing a major economic blow as the single market absorbs 46% of Britain’s sales abroad, it said.
“EU membership has its advantages to deal with non-tariff measures that even the most comprehensive agreement cannot replicate,” UNCTAD’s director of international trade, Pamela Coke-Hamilton, said in a statement.
Lets just put the rest in to make sure everyone gets the full picture.
In a no-deal scenario, Ireland’s exports to the United Kingdom are expected to drop 10% as a result of non-tariff measures and tariffs, the study based on 25 years of data found.
On the other hand, exports from developing countries into Britain and to a smaller extent into the EU could increase if Britain does not increase tariffs for third countries, it added.
The study did not estimate the impact of a “soft” exit scenario that largely maintains the status quo, saying much depends on the details of the relationship that results.
Britain has said it wants a Canada-style trade deal with the EU, but the EU has said this would require Britain to accept a level playing field in areas from state aid to taxation.
Britain has said that it does not want regulatory alignment with the bloc and that this was not what the EU demanded of Canada for a free trade deal.
Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
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