[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Mayhem]

WTO standards place tariffs on a lot of goods, these tariffs will render a lot of goods that are normally exported to the EU non-competitive.
Either companies have to increase prices when selling to the EU, risking other companies in the EU undercutting them, selling for less profit or even at a loss, which is obviously not sustainable.

Same with goods coming into the UK, which is why the UK government is considering slashing a bunch of their WTO tariffs in the event of a no-deal Brexit. However you can't favour nations under WTO rules so those categories would have their tariffs reduced (or removed entirely) for everyone. So now your opening your markets up for cheap products from low wage countries to come in and undermine the domestic market aswell.

It goes well behind just 'additional friction'.

Don't forget the huge amount of new customs officers that need to be in training right about now but obviously can't.

[Pann]

WTO standards place tariffs on a lot of goods, these tariffs will render a lot of goods that are normally exported to the EU non-competitive.
Either companies have to increase prices when selling to the EU, risking other companies in the EU undercutting them, selling for less profit or even at a loss, which is obviously not sustainable.

Same with goods coming into the UK, which is why the UK government is considering slashing a bunch of their WTO tariffs in the event of a no-deal Brexit. However you can't favour nations under WTO rules so those categories would have their tariffs reduced (or removed entirely) for everyone. So now your opening your markets up for cheap products from low wage countries to come in and undermine the domestic market aswell.

It goes well behind just 'additional friction'.

I was wondering when the usual pile on would begin and here you are!

WTO standards do not place tariffs on goods, the tariff schedule is down to each national to decide you can view the UK's temporary no-deal tariffs here https://www.gov.uk/guidance/check-te...-after-eu-exit

In your example you seem to believe that the UK companies are going to fall foul of EU tariffs but for some - unspecified - reason the UK will have to reduce or remove its tariffs in order for EU businesses to continue trading with the UK and in the process destroy its internal markets. Utter nonsense.

Just to add it's a little weird that you've not turned your expertise in international trade towards the comment that under no-deal UK/EU will cease and that it will be devastating to the UK but instead focus on my post.

[LeGin Tufnel]

There will without doubt be additional friction with UK/EU trade however it will be a far cry from "devastating".

It depends what one’s definition of “devastating” is. In the same way as it depends what one’s description of “additional friction” is. They’re just emotive weasel words lacking in substance.

As Tempname said: trade will be immensely harder and more expensive, certainly with respect to UK exports. If the government slashes tariffs on imports that will create its own set of problems with respect to the UK’s ability to compete.

Have you visited a supermarket recently? We’ve barely seen disruption to the supply chains so far and it’s complete chaos. Give it three months, then we’ll see the real impact shutting countries and economies down will have on our ability to consume.

Covid19 will last 12-18 months. Only the most ardent Brexiteers, blinded by their hatred of the EU, would seek to compound the severity of the situation by refusing to seek an extension to the transition period.

[Gorsameth]

I was wondering when the usual pile on would begin and here you are!

WTO standards do not place tariffs on goods, the tariff schedule is down to each national to decide you can view the UK's temporary no-deal tariffs here https://www.gov.uk/guidance/check-te...-after-eu-exit

In your example you seem to believe that the UK companies are going to fall foul of EU tariffs but for some - unspecified - reason the UK will have to reduce or remove its tariffs in order for EU businesses to continue trading with the UK and in the process destroy its internal markets. Utter nonsense.

Just to add it's a little weird that you've not turned your expertise in international trade towards the comment that under no-deal UK/EU will cease and that it will be devastating to the UK but instead focus on my post.

You don't think the UK is more dependant on EU goods then the EU is dependent on UK goods?
The EU is much more likely to catch any deficiencies via internal companies jumping in a gap in the market or an existing foreign trade partner. So it doesn't have to change its WTO tariffs to keep internal markets that now have a import/export issue afloat.

The UK is a lot more likely to run afoul of this as its internal market is smaller and less diverse (26 countries compared to 1 after all) and doesn't have the existing network of trade treaties.

[Pann]

It depends what one’s definition of “devastating” is. In the same way as it depends what one’s description of “additional friction” is. They’re just emotive weasel words lacking in substance.

As Tempname said: trade will be immensely harder and more expensive, certainly with respect to UK exports. If the government slashes tariffs on imports that will create its own set of problems with respect to the UK’s ability to compete.

Have you visited a supermarket recently? We’ve barely seen disruption to the supply chains so far and it’s complete chaos. Give it three months, then we’ll see the real impact shutting countries and economies down will have on our ability to consume.

Covid19 will last 12-18 months. Only the most ardent Brexiteers, blinded by their hatred of the EU, would seek to compound the severity of the situation by refusing to seek an extension to the transition period.

It won't be devastating - there are economic models that show that no-deal will result in lower GDP growth but the economy will still grow. I appreciate that this does not fit with yours or the echo chamber's belief but a growing economy can in no way be described as devastating.

Why will trade be immensely harder? We trade with many nations without a FTA or bilateral agreements - have you ever ordered something from America or China? Why do you think the government would slash tariffs?

This is a global crisis that has seen many nations closing their borders I am not sure why you think this would not disrupt supply lines as it appears to placing a strain on EU supply lines: https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-he...-idUKKBN2161OQ I can see no reason why our supply lines would be unaffected.

Also the current crisis caught nations unawares and as result there was no time to prepare whereas Brexit is known and can be prepared for.

Yeah, yeah. That has absolutely nothing to do with anything I have written so kindly take it elsewhere.

- - - Updated - - -

You don't think the UK is more dependant on EU goods then the EU is dependent on UK goods?
The EU is much more likely to catch any deficiencies via internal companies jumping in a gap in the market or an existing foreign trade partner. So it doesn't have to change its WTO tariffs to keep internal markets that now have a import/export issue afloat.

The UK is a lot more likely to run afoul of this as its internal market is smaller and less diverse (26 countries compared to 1 after all) and doesn't have the existing network of trade treaties.

The UK and EU buy and sell a lot of things to each other no matter what happens this trade will not stop.

Ah, so now EU companies will not be affected because they can sell to the internal EU market whereas UK will just - presumably - go out of business? You do know that people who do this kind of thing for a living - and are not pro-Brexit - have modelled the potential outcomes and they do not tally with what you write? I guess it's not just the Brexiteers that don't need experts, huh?

[LeGin Tufnel]

I appreciate that this does not fit with yours or the echo chamber's belief but a growing economy can in no way be described as devastating.

Yes, that’s why I was careful to state that “devastating” was a weasel word. I appreciate it was convenient to overlook that. You do, however, overlook the fact that there will be a global recession in the wake of Covid19.

Why will trade be immensely harder?

E.g., an average 35% increase on the price of dairy products exported to the EU won’t make life “immensely” harder? Do you want to tell that to the dairy industry, already in decline because of higher costs and bad weather? And, of course, don’t forget the additional non tariff barriers: form-filling, regulations & quotas. Costly and slow. That is what trade with the EU will be under WTO terms.

We trade with many nations without a FTA or bilateral agreements - have you ever ordered something from America or China? Why do you think the government would slash tariffs?

So as to minimise inevitable price increases at home, in doing so adversely affecting the ability of UK industry to compete. Do I need to start linking articles for you?

This is a global crisis that has seen many nations closing their borders I am not sure why you think this would not disrupt supply lines as it appears to placing a strain on EU supply lines: https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-he...-idUKKBN2161OQ I can see no reason why our supply lines would be unaffected.

Yes, of course. What I was said was we, in the UK, have barely yet seen the impact yet. The chaos has been created by people panic buying. A 1000% increase in demand. It’s when supplies aren’t actually being produced or delivered, that is when we’ll see the real crisis. Yes, failing to extend the transition period will exacerbate this crisis.

Yeah, yeah. That has absolutely nothing to do with anything I have written so kindly take it elsewhere.

Nah, I won’t do that.

I need to disengage now - there is simply too much shit going on to start getting angry with peeps on forums.

You seek to confuse and obfuscate at every opportunity, Pann. It’s blindingly obvious and extraordinarily boring, now.

I suggest it should be you who takes the hint and takes it elsewhere. I’ll return to my echo chamber and you to yours, wherever that actually is.

[Pann]

Yes, that’s why I was careful to state that “devastating” was a weasel word. I appreciate it was convenient to overlook that. You do, however, overlook the fact that there will be a global recession in the wake of Covid19.

Yeah. Of course.

E.g., an average 35% increase on the price of dairy products exported to the EU won’t make life “immensely” harder? Do you want to tell that to the dairy industry, already in decline because of higher costs and bad weather? And, of course, don’t forget the additional non tariff barriers: form-filling, regulations & quotas. Costly and slow. That is what trade with the EU will be under WTO terms.

Individual sectors will be affected more than others and you know full well that I was talking about trade in general but that is an interesting choice to focus on. However I would point out that the US has raised tariffs on EU dairy imports - which will not affect our dairy producers - in retaliation for the Airbus/Boeing dispute providing a potential opportunity for UK producers.

In terms of additional non-tariff barriers we already operate a farm to fork system throughout the EU - which we are unlikely to deviate from - and all livestock and their products are meticulously recorded.

So as to minimise inevitable price increases at home, in doing so adversely affecting the ability of UK industry to compete. Do I need to start linking articles for you?

Some prices will increase others will not - why do you think that this will necessitate a slashing of tariffs.

Yes, please. It's always good to learn more.

Yes, of course. What I was said was we, in the UK, have barely yet seen the impact yet. The chaos has been created by people panic buying. A 1000% increase in demand. It’s when supplies aren’t actually being produced or delivered, that is when we’ll see the real crisis. Yes, failing to extend the transition period will exacerbate this crisis.

The situation with CV19 is completely different to the potential disruption from Brexit.

I've not mentioned the transition period - why bring it up again?

Nah, I won’t do that.

I need to disengage now - there is simply too much shit going on to start getting angry with peeps on forums.

You seek to confuse and obfuscate at every opportunity, Pann. It’s blindingly obvious and extraordinarily boring, now.

I suggest it should be you who takes the hint and takes it elsewhere. I’ll return to my echo chamber and you to yours, wherever that actually is.

I am sorry if what I write confuses you - if you need further explanation I will be happy to help.

Yeah, we can't possibly have anyone say anything that disagrees with your beliefs... can we now???

If you feel this way I suggest that you put me on ignore and only read from posts of people who you agree with.

[LeGin Tufnel]

I am sorry if what I write confuses you - if you need further explanation I will be happy to help.

Don’t flatter yourself.

That’s a prime example of what I was referring to: you’re an insincere, disingenuous twat who thinks that engaging in verbal acrobatics and oh-so-subtle-putdowns makes your unfounded speculation more valid than everyone else’s.

Fuck off, Pann.

[Pann]

Don’t flatter yourself.

That’s a prime example of what I was referring to: you’re an insincere, disingenuous twat who thinks that engaging in verbal acrobatics and oh-so-subtle-putdowns makes your unfounded speculation more valid than everyone else’s.

Fuck off, Pann.

This is a very odd response considering you decided to respond to my post that stated the claim that UK/EU trade would cease in the result of no-deal.

But it that a "no" to providing those articles?

On a serious note - you seem to be taking anything I write personally which is not my intention so I think I will leave (no pun intended) it here and I wish you well in the future.

[Kronik85]

Honestly, the nonsense that conservatives come out with and their propensity for the Stalinist rewriting of history.

This government sat and did nothing for over a month as everyone saw the disease getting out of control in China then Europe. Before then, there was a period going back at least five years when numerous epidemiologists warned governments about the dangers of a virus. During that time our government repeatedly cut expenditure on the NHS to the point where there was no space capacity. The Labour Party under various leaders repeatedly called for more investment, policies which were ignored and ignored and are now being adopted wholesale.

So, no, Brexit is not that different from COVID-19 in that regard. It is an entirely predictable event with chaotic elements. No one in government seems to have the foresight to carry out the basic and limited contingency planning necessary to make it work, whether for ideological reasons or simple lack of competence. They have shown this again and again stretching back to the Olympics (the army was called in) on a small scale, and are now failing on a very grand scale. They have absolutely no reason to do so since the media never call them to task, and there is no other force in British politics which holds them to account.

Let's be fair, the government had a plan, a radical plan infact! Let everyone get infected. I guess it took a while for the numbers guys to point out that this would lead directly to, at best, 10s of thousands of deaths and maybe even the Murdoch Media would have a hard time letting that slide.

Edit: Quick mathed the numbers, based on the initial desired 70% infection rate and a 3.4% death rate (estimated by WHO) then that's 1.5 million dead.

[dribbles]

We haven't had one of these for a while, those of a sensitive remain disposition should probably close their eyes or look away, I wonder what the country thinks of the pro no EU transition extension, lets get everyone infected party currently governing...

Opinium poll (2,006 UK adults 26-27 Mar) voting intention:
Con 54%
Lab 28%
Lib Dem 6%
Green 3%
(Almost same as
@NCPoliticsUK
earlier today)

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/stat...98405527044097

The party of the sensible people has a clear majority and support for what they are doing, both in how they are handling the virus and their stance on brexit, well done Boris I suggest a new Tory slogan, Got Brexit done, get Covid done anyone come up with anything better?... Tick Tock!

[poilosparath]

We haven't had one of these for a while, those of a sensitive remain disposition should probably close their eyes or look away, I wonder what the country thinks of the pro no EU transition extension, lets get everyone infected party currently governing...

Opinium poll (2,006 UK adults 26-27 Mar) voting intention:
Con 54%
Lab 28%
Lib Dem 6%
Green 3%
(Almost same as

earlier today)



The party of the sensible people has a clear majority and support for what they are doing

Happily, many of those in the demographic which supports this majority will die in great pain in the next few weeks. Tik Tok!

[Mayhem]

Individual sectors will be affected more than others and you know full well that I was talking about trade in general but that is an interesting choice to focus on. However I would point out that the US has raised tariffs on EU dairy imports - which will not affect our dairy producers - in retaliation for the Airbus/Boeing dispute providing a potential opportunity for UK producers.

What dairy products are exported from the UK to the US? You sure have comparable numbers to the EU countries and how that could become an opportunity?

As far as I can tell, the UK exports little to nothing in dairy products to the US when compared to other EU countries with the only exception being cheddar because no other European country exports that stuff apart from Ireland.

[Forogil]

Let's be fair, the government had a plan, a radical plan infact! Let everyone get infected. I guess it took a while for the numbers guys to point out that this would lead directly to, at best, 10s of thousands of deaths and maybe even the Murdoch Media would have a hard time letting that slide.

Edit: Quick mathed the numbers, based on the initial desired 70% infection rate and a 3.4% death rate (estimated by WHO) then that's 1.5 million dead.

WHO has not estimated the actual fatality rate to 3.4%, since they know the numbers behind that statistics are faulty - e.g., that many cases are not confirmed and thus not included in the statistics.

More realistic estimates of case fatality rate is about 1% - but that's still about half a million dead. Trying to guard the elderly might reduce it further - but we are still talking about hundreds of thousands dead in the UK.

[dribbles]

Happily, many of those in the demographic which supports this majority will die in great pain in the next few weeks. Tik Tok!

Brexit Boris currently has an approval rating of 72%, that is the true legacy of Corbyn.

And I can assure you the demographic of Brexit Boris supporters don't live in the urban ghettos currently the target of Coronavirus. In the rural lands of Rees-Mogg there are 30 odd confirmed cases whereas in Corbyns backyard cases number in the thousands.

Remainers dreams of the old dying after the brexit referendum are coming back to haunt them as this new virus clearly has city dwellers in its sights...

[JohnBrown1917]

Brexit Boris currently has an approval rating of 72%, that is the true legacy of Corbyn.

And I can assure you the demographic of Brexit Boris supporters don't live in the urban ghettos currently the target of Coronavirus. In the rural lands of Rees-Mogg there are 30 odd confirmed cases whereas in Corbyns backyard cases number in the thousands.

Remainers dreams of the old dying after the brexit referendum are coming back to haunt them as this new virus clearly has city dwellers in its sights...

You missed that most people who supported Boris where, on average, far older than the labour supporters.
So yeah, its going to hit conservatives way harder due to them being way older. Not that facts are your strong suit.

[Kronik85]

WHO has not estimated the actual fatality rate to 3.4%, since they know the numbers behind that statistics are faulty - e.g., that many cases are not confirmed and thus not included in the statistics.

More realistic estimates of case fatality rate is about 1% - but that's still about half a million dead. Trying to guard the elderly might reduce it further - but we are still talking about hundreds of thousands dead in the UK.

Source was this.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona.../#who-03-03-20

But it's old numbers and BBC saying 1% today. Always fun to see 500k deaths defended by the Telegraph though as a "sensible plan" (just Google for that headline, paywall so can't link article).

[Forogil]

Source was this.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona.../#who-03-03-20

Which is a very misleading statement by WHO:

Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died.
By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected

The first statement talks about "reported cases" the second statement "infected", and it wasn't made by a slip of the tongue.

We don't know how many that are actually infected at the moment, but a reasonable estimate is that there are a lot more - and thus 1% as fatality rate is likely.

But it's old numbers and BBC saying 1% today. Always fun to see 500k deaths defended by the Telegraph though as a "sensible plan" (just Google for that headline, paywall so can't link article).

The 1% number was estimated even earlier. I agree that half a million dead are a lot - but it's not clear that any country will actually avoid such numbers (except possibly China and S. Korea).

And at least they didn't call it "A modest proposal".

[poilosparath]

You missed that most people who supported Boris where, on average, far older than the labour supporters.
So yeah, its going to hit conservatives way harder due to them being way older. Not that facts are your strong suit.

Yeah if you look at the over-65's the Tories would have won all but 4 seats in the country. Urban or rural doesn't really matter.

Additionally while diseases spread in urban centres first (for obvious reasons), that doesn't mean they won't spread to rural areas in due course.

Either way I suspect dribbles doesn't even believe what he is saying, definitely sounds more nervous than usual, with good reason.

[Kronik85]

And at least they didn't call it "A modest proposal".

There would be a serious danger that people would think it was satire if they did rather than the opinion of peak human garbage.
@Slant it's being reported that the German Finance minister just commited suicide. You got some context for us or was helping people really that painful for him?