Mega-Thread: Mueller investigation

[Omega10]

So, what I'm getting from this is you're backtracking a bit.

You said before that trump doesn't make it to the 2020 election. If this report is a non-smoking gun (as in, nothing can be directly connected to Trump) , then how exactly does he get removed before 2020?

Because it's looking like to me your former party is protecting him still.

Scenario

Mueller report has nothing directly implicating Trump

Trump is not removed from office before 2020

He wins re-election by the skin of his teeth

How possible do you think this is?

I put this at 60%. If he does get reelected, it would be nice if democrats held either the house or the senate. However, republicans have a lot of seats up for grabs in the Senate in the next election, so it's possible that Trump stays President while democrats keep the house and take the senate.

[Skroe]

So, what I'm getting from this is you're backtracking a bit.

You said before that trump doesn't make it to the 2020 election. If this report is a non-smoking gun (as in, nothing can be directly connected to Trump) , then how exactly does he get removed before 2020?

Because it's looking like to me your former party is protecting him still.

Scenario

Mueller report has nothing directly implicating Trump

Trump is not removed from office before 2020

He wins re-election by the skin of his teeth

How possible do you think this is?

I don't backtrack. And Anti-Trump is holding a winning hand, so why would I be?

I wrote this 7-12-2017, soon after the response to the Trump Tower meeting became public.

First the likelihood of his impeachment directly over Russia collusion is unlikely. But for obstruction of justice? That took a big, big step forward today. The saying "it's not the crime, it's the cover-up" is a Washington DC truism that time and time again finds itself confirmed.

And his popularity? I mean put aside the now proven collusion with Russia that is foundation Trump-Russia. His numbers are underwater. 33%-35% . He's radioactive to other Republicans. Trumpcare is enormously unpopular.

Americans are fickle about their elected leader. After electing President Chaos and having six months that feels like six years, you honestly think they would take a second helping? In this scenario, when Donald Trump tries to call the Democratic nominee some infantile name or be a terrible human being again... it won't work twice. Americans will flock to the politician who makes Politics boring and uneventful again.

I wrote this 10/12/2017

You'll be waiting until early-mid 2019. Legitimately nobody but kooks ever thought it was going to happen in 2017, or even most of 2018. But you knew this. Because we've had this discussion.

Mueller isn't going to get Trump for Collusion (he'll get his subordinates for that). He'll get him for Obstruction of Justice.

We're taking your President from you.

I wrote this 10/28/2017

They won't get Trump on collusion. That's too abstract. It's the kind of thing historians and researchers will spend decades debating. "How much did Trump know". It will be difficult to find out.

They will nail him to the wall on Obstruction of Justice. The public case against that is already extremely compelling according to veteran prosecutors.

Some of his subordinates will go down for things obliquely related to collusion.

I wrote this 10/30/2017

And that's also why Trump won't go down for collusion. That'll be an object of debate for the next 50 years. Books, in 2070, will be published by historians titled "Trump Knew" or conversely "The King Who Knew Nothing".

But Obstruction of Justice though... that's a different story. Trump didn't have to "know" there was collusion to obstruct an investigation. He just has to have committed an act.

And that is what they'll go after. Proving something as abstract as "collusion" would be too tough. Obstruction? There is significant precedent for that. And in the end, that is what Trump will go down for.

I wrote this on 11/16/2017

If you cornered me, I'd probably tell you I think he'd be going down for collusion and financial crimes as well. There is a compelling argument to take a shotgun approach to charges.

But the Trumpkins are intrinsically dishonest people who do not care what people say and lie very easily. How many times a week do we get some of those losers pretending WE'RE the ones saying "oh he's going to be impeached in the next 5 days guiz". They know we don't say that shit. They lie because they have no argument. Because they're bad people. At their core. They're really rotten people.

When the case is made against Trump there will be some things we all expected to be on the list of accusations. It will also be missing some things. And because they are liars by trade, they will use that. For example, I fully expect, if Mueller does NOT explicitly include collusion to deny that Trump took part in any collusion, even if he did obstruct.

In otherwords, anything we say we think will happen, that doesn't, they'll weaponize.

So I've chosen to adopt an approach whereby I'm sticking to the one thing that is most likely, even if in my heart of hearts, I believe there will be way more. But I'm not going to let them use that. It'll be obstruction. That's all we need. Anything else digs the grave of the Trump administration deeper, and that's just gravy.

I wrote this 11/27/2018, a year later (and 5 months ago).

I'll repeat what I said a week ago.

Nancy Pelosi will only bother to take up impeachment proceedings if the accusations in the Mueller report are so shocking and decisive, that they are impossible to ignore. If it's a wishy-washy document, with some allusion to crimes, then she won't. If it is a strong document, then she will. And the grounds will be Obstruction of Justice, not Collusion. She will not engage in a 1998-style politically-driven impeachement. She'll only go forward if she thinks there is a real chance of achieving a conviction.


And she will only do that if there is a political accommodation in the Senate first. McConnell deciding Trump has outlived his usefulness and working out an agreement with Schumer to speed impeachment along.

This is why I believe that if Impeachement goes to a vote, the vote will be something like 87-13. It'll be all Democrats and a lot of Republicans, engaging in a vote that is the outcome of a Schumer-McConnell-Pelosi deal. Republicans who need it will have a saftey-in-number voting defense (with dozens of fellow Republicans). Republicans who must vote in defense of Trump, or won't go along with the deal, will be in that "13".

Basically, it comes down to the Mueller report. If it is a strong one, then Trump's finished and it comes down to the outlines of the deal between the House and Senate. If it is an indecisive one, and we're trying to count Republican votes to get to 67, there won't be impeachment. Pelosi won't bother.

Hopefully I'm getting my thought process on this across.

Oh and one more thing, unlike a bill that becomes law, under the Constitution, McConnell has no choice but to schedule an Impeachment trial if the House passes the Articles. It's not like a bill that McConnell can simply refuse to take up. This is Pelosi's leverage. If Donald Trump is accused by Mueller of such wrong doing as to be unacceptable for him to continue on as President, she can threaten to hold this vote, and that will force McConnell to come to a deal.

I believe the Mueller evidence as we know it is damning enough. It is likely far worse. And that is why I believe Trump is screwed. But I'll say it again: people trying to count Republican Senate votes to get to 67 are thinking about this way, way, way wrong.

My record when it comes to the Trump-Russia investigation since the beginning is pretty much spotless. I largely nailed it two years ago, and not a soul outside of a handful of people in the DoJ know what is in the report yet.

[Realitytrembles]

@Skroe

My mistake. I thought I had read somewhere in all your posts on this that you were convinced Trump won't make it to 2020.

[Th3Scourge]

I hope all you idiots who bought into this conspiracy for the last two fucking years feel like you just found out your wife cheated on you

Two years of bullshit

[Merkava]

I hope all you idiots who bought into this conspiracy for the last two fucking years feel like you just found out your wife cheated on you

Two years of bullshit

Save that sentiment for after Trump's business dealings before his presidency, his foundation, his organization, his innauguration, his transition, and his administration survive the whirlwind of criminal, civil, and congressional investigations that are in progress and pending. In fact, save that sentiment for after he leaves office and fails to get arrested immediately from an unsealed indictment. Then you can pop that cork. Until then, you've got a long ways to go.

[Zaydin]

I hope all you idiots who bought into this conspiracy for the last two fucking years feel like you just found out your wife cheated on you

Two years of bullshit

If by 'conspiracy', you mean a documented pattern of people around Trump lying about their ties with Russia. Mike Flynn, Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, Jared Kushner, Donald Trump Jr, Rick Gates, etc etc.

And funny thing is that even if Mueller doesn't provide evidence of collusion, obstruction is still a crime. Just because the investigation one tries to obstruct clears you of that crime does not mean the obstruction stops being a crime.

[Setheria]

I hope all you idiots who bought into this conspiracy for the last two fucking years feel like you just found out your wife cheated on you

Two years of bullshit

It's almost like the report isn't out yet and you're making shit up.

[Skroe]

Define "You People"

I couldn't care less what you do on Fridays. Other than you surrounding yourself with a bunch of anti-Trumpsters and believing it makes you an expert on anything.

Fine. Meuller report didn't prove what you want it to prove. It failed in doing what it should have done. And any attempts to reference back to it will be immediately slapped across the face of anyone doing it. Why? Because you made Trump the 'victim of malicious prosecution of partisan reasons'. I'm definitely not the learned intellectual you are, and I already know how this goes.

So we fight till you are satisfied? Piss off. Trump is a fucking child. Debate his policies and cut out your resistance jargon. Trump wants a wall and the response is "Walls are Immoral" - People are fucking tired of these stupid games. But you try again for another year and see how that works.

No, it means you lost the battle. And now you're preparing the decimated forces for one more hoorah. Go for it.

I'm not fighting your stupid fight based on your stupid conspiracy theory.

Done.

So before I respond to this. I just have to say... I read the rest of the crazy you posted in this thread after I had to get to work. That was... umm... special. The Mueller report lands, and you're talking about Strozok and whats-her-face? Seriously.

Okay little Trumpkin.

You should care very very much what I do on Fridays. You should care what a lot of people. You see, talk is cheap. I have opinions. You have opinions. The other folks around here have opinions. People on reddit have opinions. People on the street have opinions. And truthfully, basically nobody cares. This forum... what do we actually all do here? Really have honest debate. No. For the most part it's one side showing the flag against another. Contemporary Americans aren't remotely interested in honest debate.

Which is why you should care. Because you see, an opinion that doesn't get acted on is meaningless. An opinion that gets acted on... well... that matters. Over two years ago, I had the opinion based on some pretty excellent, and since then repeatedly confirmed, circumstantial evidence that Trump betrayed the country and conspired with Russian intelligence and I decided that rather than sit on my ass and cry about it for the next 4 years, evidently as some people do, I was going to do something about it. I, a politically involved and informed conservative voter and donor up to that point, never worked on a campaign or anything like that before. It was my first round of activist political activity.

Why does it matter? Because Trump will be taken down by what he has mobilized against him. Groups like the one I volunteer for, which grew from 25 people to over 200. Larger ones. Activists. Candidates. Legal challenges. People getting involved. People taking ownership of their democracy to protect it from Donald Trump and his alt-right depredations. I've over a thousand of dollars to the ACLU the past couple of years, which they've used to wage a legal war on Trump. Money well spent.

For the record, you strike me as a one of those Trumpkins who is cosplaying as not one, in order to somehow make some kind of behind-enemy-lines divisive argument, so I don't buy the veracity of your positions for a moment, especially in light of the rest of the crazy you wrote in this thread. But more generally, and taking it at face value, I found your post outrageous. Why? You're basically saying that the act of fighting and going after him for what he has done is going to save Trump. That's insane. Not only is there considerable evidence to the contrary based on experiences in other authoritarian regimes... but your entire premise basically trades an active attack posture - undermining the sitting President of the United States anyway we can - into an article of faith that he'll collapse on himself.

The downfall of Donald Trump will be the masterwork of many people... but I said this a long time ago and I'll repeat it now... at the end, there will be people who can claim to have played some small part of it and be relieved, and there will be people who did nothing and watched it happen. Provided you're what you say you are, what are you? If you're the latter, you're the beneficiary of the former's work. This is not a time to sit on the sidelines. This is a time to get into the fight.

And yes, fight we will. For the record, anti-Trump is winning. We've been winning for months and months. What you're calling a "defeat" is simply the news that Mueller concluded his work. I mean, did you expect him to go forever? I didn't. Scroll up to my prior post. I even said when this would end, 18 months ago.

We've been all working on taking down Trump for two years, and now having built the army, prepped the battlefield, and propositioned the weapons, so to speak, we go to war. There will be more victories and more defeats, but most of all, more opportunities for us than Trump, and if he somehow gets to 2020, we weaponize it against him there too.

That's how this works.

Which brings me back to what I did tonight. Mueller's findings are going to be transformed into, and I'll call it what it is, the most comprehensive act of information warfare the United States has ever seen by PACs like the one I work at (and we're, at best, a mere sea bass compared to some of the Whales in the ocean), all for the purpose of destroying this Presidency. We've - the PAC, countless groups - have been preparing for it for 18 months, and the time is about here. The messaging and pressure campaigns are going to be focused on, you guessed it, places like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Iowa. Siege tactics, against where the foundation is weak.

You don't like our "stupid conspiracy theory", that's been proven time and time again? You'll be made to care.

Game on!

[Orbitus]

I hope all you idiots who bought into this conspiracy for the last two fucking years feel like you just found out your wife cheated on you

Two years of bullshit

Conspiracies don't have evidence. We have evidence. You just choose to ignore it like a typical Trump supporter.

[Skroe]

@Skroe

My mistake. I thought I had read somewhere in all your posts on this that you were convinced Trump won't make it to 2020.

I don't think he will. I don't think he'll be President by the end of the year. I think we're moving inexorably to impeachment and removal.

But if he does survive the coming ordeal, that fundamentally doesn't change anything. It just means the avenue and purpose of our attack changes. It means the campaign for his early removal turns into a campaign against his re-election (followed by his prosecution), with the same weapons, same intent, same messages, same rationale. Been saying that for some time too.

I'm really confused about how some people around here perceive political campaigns - and yes this is incredibly political among other things - as some kind of punctuated thing, with beginning, middle and end, and an end means an end. Like this goes back to people being surprised I dare speak again after Hillary lost in 2016. All I did after was alter the avenue of the attack somewhat. Opposition to a Trump's Presidency became opposition (and then a job) to undermine Trump's Presidency and destroy it.

Like... that is how this works. The fight never, ever ends. Even if we win, it isn't going to end.

I'll restate my position I've stated countless time: Trump will go down for obstruction and corruption. Collusion-y stuff will be relegated to his affiliates and historians speculating as to what he knew. The Mueller report is going to be extraordinarily damaging for Trump, and his Administration will probably not survive the coming protracted fight over it (that will last into the late Spring and Summer).

But you know what? If he does? That just means my PAC will have another 18 months to find new ways to burn down everything he stands for. It never ends.

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Conspiracies don't have evidence. We have evidence. You just choose to ignore it like a typical Trump supporter.

They're all getting these marching orders from t_d and what not on reddit. They're parroting the same lines.

You wanna know what's funny, in going through some quotes of mine from 2017 and 2018 I posted up thread, I saw myself responding to pro-Trump names that simply aren't around anymore. A whole lot of them. They haven't posted since mid 2017 or 2018. Like what the hell happened to Stacyrect and BuckSparkles and primalmatter and want my Slimjim and Ransath. Never mind our old buddy Dacien. And now we find ourselves responding to more new faces and new accounts.

I wonder why that is...

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Easiest $100 of my life.

Report isn't out yet? O_o

You're literally declaring victory Mueller saying "I finished the job I set out to do". I mean what did you expect? This would go on until late 2020?

If you think this ends well for Trump, you haven't been paying attention.

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Soon lad, soon.

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Also here's the report for anyone who hasn't read it yet.

https://www.scribd.com/document/4028...85D35_Y9nOhxyI

Yeah, you deserved this self-own. Well done.

[Setheria]

You wanna know what's funny, in going through some quotes of mine from 2017 and 2018 I posted up thread, I saw myself responding to pro-Trump names that simply aren't around anymore. A whole lot of them. They haven't posted since mid 2017 or 2018. Like what the hell happened to Stacyrect and BuckSparkles and primalmatter and want my Slimjim and Ransath. Never mind our old buddy Dacien. And now we find ourselves responding to more new faces and new accounts.

I'm pretty sure those guys aren't/weren't Trump supporters. They were Independents™

[Skroe]

I'm pretty sure those guys aren't/weren't Trump supporters. They were Independents™

Yeah just like Ashrynn, the cosplayer du jour.

It's really the dumbest trick in the book.

[Orbitus]

Yeah just like Ashrynn, the cosplayer du jour.

It's really the dumbest trick in the book.

I think some of them got permabans. But some, just either changed their names, or bitched out completely.

[steristumpie]

Looking at the shit I see here, Reddit and Facebook, I am literally legitimately laughing out loud.

I’ve never seen nor could ever imagine half a fucking country so mad to find out their president isn’t a foreign agent.
Oh America. Never change. Keep entertaining the world.

(Just stop shooting people in other countries, stick to shooting each other)

[Merkava]

I don't think he will. I don't think he'll be President by the end of the year. I think we're moving inexorably to impeachment and removal.

Given that impeachment and the subsequent vote to either convict or acquit is a purely political process, I have a question for you.

What do you think is the absolute floor is for Trumps approval rating? 35%? 30%? How about among Republicans? 80%? Assuming that you're going to need approx 22 Republican senators to vote to convict, do you see his approval rating going low enough in the party to get that many? I agree with David Frum when he says that we pretty much know what we need to know about Trump already. People know he was a crook in his business life. We know that he has some weird, untoward, and potentially treasonous affinity for Putin, whether its financial or ideological, and we know he's morally unfit for the Presidency.

What do you think could tip the scales enough to drop his approval sufficiently among Republicans to get that many Republican senators to vote to remove him?

[Flarelaine]

Damn, that is terrible english.

Would you care for a second try?

@Fugus, someone wants in on your list.

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Democrats today - "Mueller has whitewashed the report and can't be trusted, we must see the underlying documents he found"

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No matter what happens they will move the goalposts like it's a caber toss. These are Russians who are being paid to spread propoganda.

I'm pretty sure some of them are just useful... erm... useful.

[Shalcker]

@Skroe

My mistake. I thought I had read somewhere in all your posts on this that you were convinced Trump won't make it to 2020.

As it happens, i have it bookmarked, it was too good to pass up:

By Fall 2019.

We're Taking Your President Away From you.

This coming year.

[Skroe]

Given that impeachment and the subsequent vote to either convict or acquit is a purely political process, I have a question for you.

What do you think is the absolute floor is for Trumps approval rating? 35%? 30%? How about among Republicans? 80%? Assuming that you're going to need approx 22 Republican senators to vote to convict, do you see his approval rating going low enough in the party to get that many? I agree with David Frum when he says that we pretty much know what we need to know about Trump already. People know he was a crook in his business life. We know that he has some weird, untoward, and potentially treasonous affinity for Putin, whether its financial or ideological, and we know he's morally unfit for the Presidency.

What do you think could tip the scales enough to drop his approval sufficiently among Republicans to get that many Republican senators to vote to remove him?

So a few things.

I think his floor is about 34%. He has glanced at that a few points in the past, but really hovers around 38%-40%. A big reason for this is there is no alternative right now. He sucks up all the oxygen in the room. The Democrats have a lot of fine figures for the legislative branch, but they so far (understandably) lack a front man. Theoretically, if everything timed perfectly and that front man becomes Biden or Beto and the Mueller damage hit at the worst time, you could see that 38% become 34%. But probably no worse than that.

I, however, don't think it matters all that much. As Nixon was heading to impeachement, his Republican approval rating hung around 75%. In fact, it dived after the Paris peace accords. And it never fell below 50%.
[img]https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*xfLHXQVGQ3WuCwYzjwZsiQ.png[/img]


Trumpkins like to pretend Trump is some great man to validate themselves and their moral compromise. One of the most offensive things you can say to them is to remind them that the most powerful Republican in the country isn't Donald Trump, it's Mitch McConnell. McConnell controls the agenda. McConnell controls the budget. McConnell has the big Republican donors on speed dial. Senate Republicans just unleashed their version for the 2020 budget. Unsurprisingly, it looks absolutely nothing like Trump's 2020 Presidential Budget request. The shutdown ended when McConnell basically said it must.

Trump is gone when McConnell decides the long term damage to his (McConnell's) agenda done by Trump outweighs the benefits of keeping him. Up until right now, McConnell has RIGHTLY concluded there is no downside to riding the Trump train. But the 2008 losses changed that, and 2020 looks extremely ominious. And Trump delivered a big gift by showing himself so unreliable by giving McConnell his word on having a continuing resolution, then renegging on it and leading to a shut down.

Trump will go when McConnell decides Trump has outlived his usefulness, and not one minute before. WHen I brought this up before, someone compared him to Tywin Lannister. That is basically correct. Trump signs bills he has no idea whats in them, because like Joffery he wants to play being in charge, when really, he's a puppet child-king.

This is why I believe, if it actually came to a removal vote - and I don't think it'll get there - it'll be something like 87-13. It'll be a structured voted. A recent event has reinforced my belief in this.

Do you recall the vote against the emergency declaration recently? Incredible how it scored exactly 59 votes, with some surprising votes against it, and some surprising votes for it. Amazing huh? Exactly 59 with that mix of people.

Here's what happened. The Republican caucus structured the vote. McConnell likes his predictable votes in the Senate. He hates the Rand Pauls and Ted Cruzes that pop up. People not under his thumb. So he assembled a vote that didn't break the psychologically meaningful "60 vote" barrier, didn't come close to flirting with being able to override a veto (67), had Senators who would be vulnerable to a primary on their right, in a way that would best position them for that primary, and allowed for some principled voting to send Trump a message. All in one neat little package. 61 votes was too much. 60 was too much. 64 votes was too dangerous, and he sure as hell couldn't have Ben Sasse or Cory Booker or Thom Tillis vote in favor.

That's how McConnell works. And that's how, if it came to it, he'd dispose of Trump.

THat's why I've said for months and months and months, if the goal is to get rid of Trump, the real goal is to convince McConnell that Trump is too expensive for him. And Trump has been an incredible asset in that regard. That shutdown stunt, particularly, drove the point home, and his Emergency declaration made it even worse. Is it enough? We'll see. McConnell has seen major warnings in the past 8 months, from a shrinking Republican base, to major Republican losses in November, to donors keeping their wallets shut, to the ongoing recruiting crisis in the White House, and now Trump's stunts. We have to hope the Mueller report is the proverbial straw that breaks the camels back.

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As it happens, i have it bookmarked, it was too good to pass up:

So literally exactly what I just said in reply to him?

By the way, can I have your address? We're coming up on the five year anniversary of sanctions. I want to send you a celebratory cake (that won't violate sanctions).

[Skroe]

And not a mod to be found. That is new and exciting.

After the "What's the Allowance for Transbashing on the forum" thread in the Suggestions and Feedback subforum turned into a 14 page, multi-day transbashing / concern trolling thread, I'm fairly convinced now that the guards have abandoned their posts.

https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...g-on-the-Forum

It went two days and 14 pages before a mod noticed.

[Aehl]

Conspiracies don't have evidence. We have evidence. You just choose to ignore it like a typical Trump supporter.

If they had evidence thered be charges

Mueller says there arent any

Mueller aint got shit.