There were 35 Senate seats in the 2018 election. Democrats had 26 at the beginning, Republicans only 9. The Democrats came out -2, sure, but as the party with the most seats, this is actually a good result for them, statistically speaking.
Let's pretend every single seat was chosen by coin flip. Most likely result, 17.5 D 17.5 R. The Dems beat that handily.
Now let's pretend every single seat has a 60% chance to go to the incumbent. 19.2 D seats -- the Dems beat that handily.
Now let's pretend bla bla bla 80%. 22.6D seats -- pretty close to the result of 24, but still a little low. To hit 24 exactly, it's 88.5% support.
Now of course, this is oversimplification. The two parties likely had different odds based on the results their party had. But the fact is the Senate Democrats had a good overall showing, when risking nearly three times as many seats as the Republicans, to only lose 2.
In 2020, there are 22 R seats up for grabs and 12 D. If the Republicans can keep the same level of support in 2020 as the Democrats had in 2018 (88.5%) then they will lose a seat, but keep their majority. To lose 3 seats, the support needs to be 70.15% or so.
Now, based on the way things are going with the Wall, the Trump Shutdown, the GDP numbers, the projected (we're assuming the projections are correct) GDP numbers getting worse, the damage to farming, the lack of improvement to manufacturing plus closures and layoffs, no health care plan (if anyone has one, it's after the election), Graham and McConnell doing everything they can to help Trump whose crimes continue to be investigated plus "oranges", closing the Mexican border, no visible progress on ANY trade deals and possibly war with Iran...
...will the GOP see that level of support? Or will it drop?
Dontrike/Shadow Priest/Black Cell Faction Friend Code - 5172-0967-3866
Comey just gave a long interview. There was no sign of him being nervous.
Maybe you're talking about Trump going after the oranges of the investigation -- which, of course, was him firing Comey. But if you think Trump will profit from prosecuting his political rivals, or trying to turn his own intelligence agencies against themselves, you're going to have to explain why. Because the Mueller investigation was backed with overwhelming Congressional support, and Trump's guy Rosenstein started it. In addition to Trump firing Comey, it was based on suspicion that Trump was working with Russia (such as the Trump Tower meeting, which they both did, and also, lied about doing before admitting it), was working on Trump Tower Moscow (which he was), violated campaign laws (which he did), and had people on his staff working with Russia (which he did, Flynn barely lasted the night). Based on all of that, the likelihood of Trump being able to get some kind of investigation going without looking like a dictator are quite low indeed.
Comey's not nervous. Comey knows how unlikely it is he'll face prosecution for...um, anything at all, really. Lordy, he hopes there are tapes.
Last edited by Citizen T; 2019-04-03 at 01:03 AM. Reason: Infracted for spam
Dontrike/Shadow Priest/Black Cell Faction Friend Code - 5172-0967-3866
Career prosecutors follow the law.
If you think the investigation is finished, why are there still investigations going in at least 4 districts? EDNY, SDNY, EDVA, and main justice (let alone mueller's investigation... still ongoing)?
Yeah, sure, if there's no evidence, it will make trump look better, which is why he and his ag are so intent on releasing it.
You obviously do care, or you wouldn't have mentioned it. You're just full of shit.
The desperate attempts to salvage something from this debacle by the Mueller dead-enders like yourself is just sad. Yes, the public hasn't read the Mueller report. But we know he ended his investigation without indicting a single American for conspiring with Russia to influence the election. Trump, Jr. testified for hours and hours before Congress, including about the Trump Tower meeting. If he lied there, or to Mueller, why didn't Mueller indict him for perjury, lying to Congress or obstruction? Same questions for Kushner. Stop embarrassing yourselves.
If Mueller found evidence that Putin controls Trump & forces him to act against US interests & in favor of Russia - not just with a pee-pee tape but with financial blackmail - what could possibly justify keeping that a secret through the end of the investigation? It's ludicrous the position you are taking up.
On MMO-C we learn that Anti-Fascism is locking arms with corporations, the State Department and agreeing with the CIA, But opposing the CIA and corporate America, and thinking Jews have a right to buy land and can expect tenants to pay rent THAT is ultra-Fash Nazism. Bellingcat is an MI6/CIA cut out. Clyburn Truther.
The desperate attempts to stymie the release of the mueller report tell everyone there's something in it the president doesn't want released. Trump dead-enders like yourself are just sad. Yes, the majority of the public believes barr's summary doesn't exonerate trump, and we know the mueller investigation is literally still ongoing, and one of the things that got manafort (an american who was trump's campaign manager) in trouble for lying to meuller was the fact that he left out coordination with russians in an effort to influence the campaign. Trump jr has been referred to justice for perjury, but guess what, that's part of the case main justice is handling, not mueller.
Since mueller isn't known to break the law, he's not going to illegally release his report.
Seriously, your bullshit is just that. Your ignorance is just that. If you'd have been paying attention, you wouldn't look like you do now, an ignorant liar.
On MMO-C we learn that Anti-Fascism is locking arms with corporations, the State Department and agreeing with the CIA, But opposing the CIA and corporate America, and thinking Jews have a right to buy land and can expect tenants to pay rent THAT is ultra-Fash Nazism. Bellingcat is an MI6/CIA cut out. Clyburn Truther.
See...that's what they should have done. "Total exonoration" is false, but they went with that, anyhow. Now anything in there that's made public tarnishes that argument, and anything in there that's not made public is a coverup. If they had just said "Trump acted like a novice and messed up, he'll do better next time" they bypass some of that.
Even Trump's collusion hasn't been disproven. There's a reason he picked someone who cleaned up the Iran-Contra scandal for AG. Barr is Trump's new fixer and until congress gets the full unredacted report I wouldn't believe anything that Barr says. I wonder why the White House has done a 180 on wanting to see the Mueller report...
Last edited by Arvei; 2019-04-03 at 01:45 AM.