Classic launch and beyond predictions

[ThatsOurEric]

Large playerbase will join in due to both nostalgia as well as for players never experiencing the game
"from the beginning."

More than 60-70% will leave when they eventually see how "poor" the game will be, both graphically,
engine-wise, and the various sorts of pre-game designed features that no longer exist, I.E. weapon
skills, spell ranks, overpriced everything, the "Hit" stat, etc.

The small playerbase left will still be sizeable enough to merit keeping the server active, but it will
be nowhere near as big as the post-vanilla game will be.

[Daggot Ur]

Unlikely, IMO. And even if that happened, retail wouldn't suffer.



Honest question, for how long Nostalrius was online? Enough time to build a solid community? Solid enough to do raids and such?

It was growing every day with not a single sign of slowing down. We will never know how big it would have become in the end but what we can be sure of - it was successful. It lasted for more than several months for sure! There several guilds on both sides that cleared and farmed bwl, MC and ZG pugs.

- - - Updated - - -

And how many of those people played because it was free?

Who can be sure? What I do know us that my guild was full of people over 30 with families and kids and they all wished we could get legit classic and were ready to pay. 15-30$ a months is peanuts

[toxicrusader]

It was growing every day with not a single sign of slowing down. We will never know how big it would have become in the end but what we can be sure of - it was successful. It lasted for more than several months for sure! There several guilds on both sides that cleared and farmed bwl, MC and ZG pugs.

If It was like you are saying, we can expect the same sucess in Blizzard's Classic.

Not only former Nostalrius players will join, but Blizzard purists who would never touch a private server. And on top of that, new players expecting to see what is this Vanilla everyone talked about for the last decade.

Assuming Blizzard will do a good job with the marketing, everyone that ever wanted this will come back, and if they really wanted, they'll stay.

I'm glad for the people who wanted Vanilla back. The WoW community will only grow with this, I hope.

[Mullet Man]

Here is my take on how Blizzard might do this.
Not saying this is the best idea, just one way I can see this playing out.
I suspect it could be why they used the name "Classic" over "Vanilla".

- A new classic server is released.
- Everyone starts at level 1.
- Only raids available at launch are MC and Oxy.
- BWL is released after 6 months (my guess).
- AQ40 is released after another 6 months.
- Naxx is released after another 6 months.
- Finally, BC is released and level cap is raised to 70.
- At this point a "new" classic server is created and the cycle starts again.
- Players can continue with the BC storyline on classic server #1, or start fresh on the newly created classic server #2.
- Once Classic Server #1 reaches the end of BC content it moves to Wrath content, Classic Server #2 moves to BC, and Classic Server #3 is created starting fresh.
- Rinse and Repeat

Seems like this is path of least resistance for Blizzard as all the content is already created. Just keep releasing the xpacs on a predetermined scheduled, add a new classic server every couple of years, and pay staff to run this small subset of servers.

If they release each xpac on a 2 years cycle, it would take 12 years for the first classic server released to reach BfA.
They would never run out of content as long as they keep releasing new xpacs for retail.

Over time this gives players the option to play any "Classic" version of WoW they want.

Ideally, for slow players, you could server transfer to a previous xpac based on your progression and/or time gate.
For example, if you have killed Ragnaros in MC, but not Nefarian, then you can only transfer back to the current vanilla server after the first Ragnaros kill on the server. If you have killed Nefarion, you can transfer back after the first Nefarion kill. Players that haven't killed any Raid bosses would have to wait to transfer back after some predetermined time gate or event.

Again... not sure if this the best idea, but it is a way for Blizzard to make all versions of "Classic" WoW available to players.

[Wiedzemir]

It would be fun to see that size of Classic WoW's community becoming larger than that of leg.

That's not going to happen though, should be realistic about that as well I think.

[Nheme]

I enjoyed vanilla, most of TBC and some of WotLK so if they would make the server progress at a later date I would hang on until WotLK, but I'm here for Vanilla and hopefully that's what we're getting.

[Super Kami Dende]

Google Nostalrius please before making these silly statements

protip: Nost was Free. Many people that played it did so purely because of it being Free.

[chubbybunny]

Could be that they'll roll out the classic server to see how many people play it after a set period, maybe about 10 realms at first to see numbers of players.

Then if it becomes successful they could either keep the servers as pure vanilla, and then have seperate servers for each x-pac.

so you'll have a vanilla, vanilla + tbc, vanilla +tbc + wrath.. etc

[Kongnic11]

[*] The 'classic' servers will progress, probably in sync with the 'modern' xpac cycle, at least though WotLK, if not beyond. Once they reach WotLK, a new Classic wave will begin to roll, So a fresh classic->TBC->WotLK wave might roll through every 6-7 years, even though it is impossible to predict what the gaming community would hold that far in the future.[/LIST]

Tbh, I hope this is what happens - Maybe cataclysm too... No one? Okay then... - it's just me who likes that one

[Lochton]

You and your wife are high as hell. They wouldn't go on stage to announce CLASSIC WoW if they were just going to do pristine realms. Use your brain a little.

Nothing about being high but you gotta be daft if you believe that it isn't one step of the research division. Already a waste of resources to make a classic server if it wasn't for another step than 'give them a museum tour'.

[Gamer8585]

I don't think they are doing WoW Classic as a loss leader for 'regular' WoW revenue. I think they realize that there is genuine space for two 'WoW universe' MMOs. I think they realize that a lot of the Classic audience is not keen on 'modern WoW'n but that at the same time there is a non-negligible overlap. I don't think they will leave a potential half billion on the table from a box sale, as it hedges against potential poor staying power. Recurring revenue will come from a joint sub (unless by then regular WoW has ditched the sub entirely, which would only increase the likelihood of a B2P model as the Classic audience would not be the most amenable to in game monetization.

Not really a loss leader, since I don't think the model is designed to lose money in that area. Rather I think they're doing it to lure back players that may have quit by using nostalgia. They get to recapture those players, and community that was going to private servers for Vanilla WoW. If they release them during a content lull then current subscibers would probably check it out for a few months too, potentially stopping some hemorrhaging of subscribers just long enough for the new hotness to come out.

The fricitonlessness of having older players log back in, and current players just being able to switch is likely worth more in subscriber money for the first few months than they would get by selling a separate client. And those that stay continue paying, and that is worth waaaaaaaaaaay more than a one time box purchase. There really won't be a need for them to have a separate subscription either since no new content will be produced and its likely that the only reason Blizzard is green-lighting this is that they found a way to virtualize the old tech on their current setup so they won't need new hardware.

Plus that makes jumping between games easier and I'm sure they would love to have those Classic subscribers hoping over to Modern (even if only occasionally). In an MMO players themselves are content to other players. Its what differentiates the genre. You can see other people and you need other people. It also helps them maintain a presence in the greater cultural Zeigiest. Even if the staunchly Classic player never dirties themselves with Modern pussy-carebear WoW, they're still talking about it on forums. Even in bashing it they maintain its presence and therefore serve Blizzard's interest and act as a form of advertising.

Previous MMOs didn't die because people hated them. They died because a critical mass of people stopped giving a shit about them.

[Darknessvamp]

[*] About 12 Million people....

Oh really? I highly doubt it'll be that many considering the division there has always been for and against classic servers plus common sense. It's more likely they'll have a one time small fee to upgrade your account with classic access followed by your usual sub covering the rest of the cost as they merge PvP servers into PvE and adjust the unused servers for hosting classic data.

[krilad]

I think the logical and best thing to do is to make the classic wow integrate into the regular wow, after you reach lv60 you can opt for migrating your character to the regular servers or stay on the classic one, so even after the main player base is dead, there will be always a regular player base looking after itens and transmogs wich you can`t get now in the current wow.

[Swalload]

Take away 2 zeros and maybe he's right with that 12mil figure.

That's a lot more accurate indeed.

[Daggot Ur]

protip: Nost was Free. Many people that played it did so purely because of it being Free.

Total BS. All of my guild was grownups who were to pay if Blizz made it themselves.

[Feindy]

why do so many people think people only played nost because it was free? there are so many free wow servers its crazy and you can choose any expansion you want. people on nost played there because it was vanilla, not because it was free

[NewportsDentarg]

I, for one, can't wait!!!

[zoned]

Of the over one hundered million that ever played WoW, more than 10% will come back to try.

Here is how I think it will go down:

• Classic will be launched during a regular lull period, e.g. after the last raid tier of BfA, when they're a few weeks into the final catch-up/reroll patch
  
• It will be launched as a separate box (just like an xpac), but not need a separate sub (but onetime purchase as not leaving that money on the table will be just too juicy)
  
• About 12 Million people will hammer those Classic serves first week of launch -> ~600M one time revenue just from the launch box sale itself, add mechandizing and derivatives and we're looking at 1 Billion revenue
  
• Around 80% of people will leave the game after fooling around with it for a while, probably by the time the next 'modern' WoW xpac launches.
  
• Some 10% will also be drawn back through Classic to the new game, making if a gateway for revenue there as well.
  
• Only about 10% will stay on purely playing WoW Classic exclusively longtime. That is still stabilized at > 1M subs, making it a successful game on its own.
  
• The 'classic' servers will progress, probably in sync with the 'modern' xpac cycle, at least though WotLK, if not beyond. Once they reach WotLK, a new Classic wave will begin to roll, So a fresh classic->TBC->WotLK wave might roll through every 6-7 years, even though it is impossible to predict what the gaming community would hold that far in the future.

Classic WoW will not only surpass 12 million initial subs it will sustain this for years to come. I think you are greatly underestimating peoples love for classic, it will easily over take retail and soon become Blizzards priority. Legion only has 1 million active players at best. So why would Blizzard continue making modern expansions if 90% of your players base is playing classic. If I'm right the next logical step would be for Blizzard to cancel all future WoW expansions beyond BfA and start working on a new feature. Maybe WoW2?

[Mullet Man]

Classic WoW will not only surpass 12 million initial subs it will sustain this for years to come. I think you are greatly underestimating peoples love for classic, it will easily over take retail and soon become Blizzards priority. Legion only has 1 million active players at best. So why would Blizzard continue making modern expansions if 90% of your players base is playing classic. If I'm right the next logical step would be for Blizzard to cancel all future WoW expansions beyond BfA and start working on a new feature. Maybe WoW2?

I agree... this could be the start of WoW2.
Blizzard could reuse the assets (graphics, models, etc...) from all xpacs and start a new story arch.
Would be interesting to see what they could come up with and would give all players new content to explore without Blizzard having to create new assets.

[HuxNeva]

I agree... this could be the start of WoW2.
Blizzard could reuse the assets (graphics, models, etc...) from all xpacs and start a new story arch.
Would be interesting to see what they could come up with and would give all players new content to explore without Blizzard having to create new assets.

I do believe that if classic turns out to be a real success, that and alternative line of new expansions will be on the table. Look at AoE II. Look at OSRS. New life for rekindled former versions.