Drop rate statistics for Amanthul's Vision and other Pantheon trinkets

[Deleted]

Well, there's no need to read the whole conversation when you made a false statement. Someone googling it finding just that answer gets false information.

im sure someone googling this will also take the 3seconds to read the reply before and even if not its still common sense if you ever played this game before - yet i still edited my post just because of how insanely dense you are.

[FrostyButt]

It's been what? 5 weeks now? I have yet to get a trinket on my toons. Where as people in my guild already have 2 trinkets (One for DPS and one for Tank)

[Ezyah]

Are there any statistics for 2nd spec drop ? is it loosely the same as first spec ?

[mat7213]

where is the data about week 4?

[Pickynerd]

It's been what? 5 weeks now? I have yet to get a trinket on my toons. Where as people in my guild already have 2 trinkets (One for DPS and one for Tank)

I'd imagine the drop rate is artificially low now, with exceptions of course, so that ATV isn't a base requirement for the rest of the game. I am thinking by the time LFR is on Argus, nearly everyone will have one.

[KaPe]

I'd imagine the drop rate is artificially low now, with exceptions of course, so that ATV isn't a base requirement for the rest of the game. I am thinking by the time LFR is on Argus, nearly everyone will have one.

LFR is halfway there and less than 1% of people have ATV. That'd be some amazing drop rate increase.

[Pickynerd]

LFR is halfway there and less than 1% of people have ATV. That'd be some amazing drop rate increase.

Less than 1% of the player base, edge, or cutting edge?

I'm just saying if the drop rate was higher, ATV would be required for everything, and with the bad RNG legendary system outcry that already happened, this would be yet another bad move on Blizzards end.

This way some people get lucky, the drop exists (carrot) eliminating requirements that would happen in guilds/groups for M+ and Raiding.

[xpire]

I got Amanthul's trinket on my alt... feelsbadman

[KaPe]

Less than 1% of the player base, edge, or cutting edge?

Of a statistically significant group of 10k players? The ones this thread is about? In case of the entire playerbase, it will be even less, since obviously a lot of them don't raid. I don't see how such abyssmal rate is a good thing. They introduce an item that can be used as a third legendary and then have it so barely anyone gets it? Why even bother then?

Also, M+ groups don't matter, since the special proc doesn't work outside Antorus. Unrealistic PUG demand will still happen, whether it's about ATV or something else. The item is also not nearly as powerful to utterly trivialize the content to the extent that WoD's legendary ring did. It's just the continuation of rng legendary system that has been a nuisance for the entire expansion. Good job, Blizz...

[Einsz]

They introduce an item that can be used as a third legendary and then have it so barely anyone gets it? Why even bother then?

So you keep your sub active trying to chase it every week for the next year.

[FrostyButt]

I'd imagine the drop rate is artificially low now, with exceptions of course, so that ATV isn't a base requirement for the rest of the game. I am thinking by the time LFR is on Argus, nearly everyone will have one.

I don't really care about the legendary one I know I have shit luck with RNG so I will never get that legendary one. Talking about the normal one that will eventually be required for PUGs. LOL

[Deleted]

So you keep your sub active trying to chase it every week for the next year.

Yeah you're right, probably works. Makes sense like that. Chasing an item until BfA and shortly before BFA increase the drop chance.

[Pickynerd]

Of a statistically significant group of 10k players? The ones this thread is about? In case of the entire playerbase, it will be even less, since obviously a lot of them don't raid. I don't see how such abyssmal rate is a good thing. They introduce an item that can be used as a third legendary and then have it so barely anyone gets it? Why even bother then?

Also, M+ groups don't matter, since the special proc doesn't work outside Antorus. Unrealistic PUG demand will still happen, whether it's about ATV or something else. The item is also not nearly as powerful to utterly trivialize the content to the extent that WoD's legendary ring did. It's just the continuation of rng legendary system that has been a nuisance for the entire expansion. Good job, Blizz...

My bad.

Doesn't matter so much on buff, but the stats, which is a big deal.

[Taladendren]

Well, looks like this is indicative of BLP, presumably on both trinkets. I don't think people get how the statistics work - to make assessments about probabilities, you need larger sample sizes to accurately assess smaller probabilities. Tiny probabilities, think rare kinds of cancer or something, require huge samples - possibly in the millions.

The Amanthul's chance is just so low that the sample size isn't big enough to make accurate assessments (the confidence interval that's 3 times wider than the value just says "inconclusive"). On the other hand, the other trinkets have a large enough drop chance that one can conclude BLP is at work (or a much less likely manual drop rate change).

Pretty sure we'll see more Aman'thuls in a month, the drop rate just needs to get farther away from 0 for it to be clear.

[dark666105]

Week 4 data is up, definitly seems like the normal pantheon trinket is getting blp, though amanthuls is still an abysmally low %.

[impending doom]

Update Dec 28, 2017: Added data for week 4.

These numbers include only characters who killed Argus the Unmaker every week and did not have the trinket before the latest observed week:

Week 1 (Nov 29 - Dec 6):
Aman'Thul's Vision:	10448 characters - 28 drops	- Drop rate: 0.27% (range 0.162% - 0.437% with 99% confidence level)
Other Pantheon trinket:	10448 characters - 1776 drops	- Drop rate: 17.00% (range 16.1% - 18.0% with 99% confidence level)

Week 2 (Dec 6 - 13):
Aman'Thul's Vision:	9729 characters - 14 drops	- Drop rate: 0.14% (range 0.068% - 0.288% with 99% confidence level)
Other Pantheon trinket:	8134 characters - 1409 drops	- Drop rate: 17.32% (range 16.3% - 18.4% with 99% confidence level)

Week 3 (Dec 13 - 20):
Aman'Thul's Vision:	9210 characters - 6 drops	- Drop rate: 0.065% (range 0.016% - 0.185% with 99% confidence level)
Other Pantheon trinket:	6345 characters - 1338 drops	- Drop rate: 21.09% (range 19.8% - 22.4% with 99% confidence level)

Week 4 (Dec 20 - 27):
Aman'Thul's Vision:	8440 characters - 8 drops	- Drop rate: 0.095% (range 0.032% - 0.237% with 99% confidence level)
Other Pantheon trinket:	4598 characters - 1235 drops	- Drop rate: 26.86% (range 25.2% - 28.6% with 99% confidence level)
				
Total amount of characters having a trinket, from those 8476 who killed Argus every week so far:
0.52% has Aman'Thul's Vision now
60.32% has epic Pantheon trinket now

Full spreadsheet here with all the drops.


Notes for week 4+:
The drop rate for epic Pantheon trinkets is getting noticeably higher each week, which tells that there's some bad luck protection or flat base chance increase for everyone. Aman'Thul's Vision still isn't showing any noticeable increase in drop rate, but it is so low that it can't be measured very accurately with this sample size. I could try to track more characters, although there isn't much practical use for more accurate number as long as the drop rate stays below 0.5%.

For week 5 I've tracked already 5400 kills, and that data is showing epic trinkets drop rate getting already close to 35%, while Aman'Thul is still staying around 0.1%.

[Deleted]

Amazing work so far man!
Thanks for this

[Deleted]

So if numbers are correct and you killed Argus each week, 75% of players should have trinket now. Sucks to be one of the 25% that have no trinket. Would be really fair to makr it 100% in 6th id or 7th id...

Otherwise there will be people having no trinket after 12 weeks...

[Leenaleena]

My character does not turn up on the data sheet. Do recently transferred characters not show up in general?

EDIT: Clarification: My paladin was moved to Tarren Mill on the 20th. I got the Eonar trinket on the 25th.

[Deleted]

My character does not turn up on the data sheet. Do recently transferred characters not show up in general?

EDIT: Clarification: My paladin was moved to Tarren Mill on the 20th. I got the Eonar trinket on the 25th.

He never said he is tracking EVERY character. Just a big sample size. There are far more than 10000 people killing Argus since ID1.