Beta Key Giveaway Week 3: Winners have been selected!

Page 5 of 5 FirstFirst ...
3
4
5
  1. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by Lenonis View Post
    My only caution is that there is just under a year before the 2018 elections, and that's a long time in political terms. People are starting to go numb to Trump's shenanigans and if they put this tax bill in place the longer term ramifications won't be felt by then so it could pull support back to the GOP.

    There is a whole heck of a lot that can happen to swing things either direction, from more progress on the Mueller front, to the GOP somehow getting Trump under control, to a disaster or war happening that causes a surge in support for the party in power.

    However, all things being equal and nothing major happening -- it's OBVIOUS the GOP should be extremely worried about the next two election cycles.
    Every day Trump is president. And every day he fucks up. Almost every day I hear coworkers who have had zero prior political exposure repeat the headlines of the week. Trump is something we have never experienced.

    In my eyes, worst case scenario, today is the worst it gets. But 2018 won't be good.

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by Lenonis View Post
    The dems won't let voters forget about him. It would be far worse if Moore was actually elected, but the GOP decided in the end to fully back, both financially and via campaigning, Moore. That generates any number of really painful attack ads against any GOP opponent in any race.

    That, of course, doesn't mean voters still won't vote the party line -- but as we're seeing in the last several elections there are more and more people who don't identify with a party and they are able to have their vote swayed. I think things are lot more up in the air than you'd think -- especially on the right. Normally it's the GOP that's been good at keep their party in line and moving as a unified block, but there is so much civil war in the party who knows what'll happen, or who will be primaried, or what drama unfolds before it even gets to a (R) vs (D) decision.

    - - - Updated - - -

    You cannot possibly think that would work as a positive for the GOP do you?
    Actually I very much do. It will neutralize a negative. And if he campaigns well throughout all of 2018, or most of it, which he is talking about doing, the sheer amount of feel good stories about his enthusiastic crowds shouting out praise and admiration for him will drown out any memories of the Mueller investigation.

    His supporters are 100% behind him, and he only needs republicans to have a decent approval rate on one day next year for next year to be a success for them. Republicans do not need anyone to vote FOR republicans due to him firing Mueller, they just need not too many people to flock to the polls AGAINST them due to firing Mueller. And I think there is a decent chance this will come to fruition.

  3. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    Actually I very much do. It will neutralize a negative. And if he campaigns well throughout all of 2018, or most of it, which he is talking about doing, the sheer amount of feel good stories about his enthusiastic crowds shouting out praise and admiration for him will drown out any memories of the Mueller investigation.

    His supporters are 100% behind him, and he only needs republicans to have a decent approval rate on one day next year for next year to be a success for them. Republicans do not need anyone to vote FOR republicans due to him firing Mueller, they just need not too many people to flock to the polls AGAINST them due to firing Mueller. And I think there is a decent chance this will come to fruition.
    His supporters are dwindling. He is down to what? 32%?

  4. #84
    Titan Lenonis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    12,008
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    Actually I very much do. It will neutralize a negative. And if he campaigns well throughout all of 2018, or most of it, which he is talking about doing, the sheer amount of feel good stories about his enthusiastic crowds shouting out praise and admiration for him will drown out any memories of the Mueller investigation.

    His supporters are 100% behind him, and he only needs republicans to have a decent approval rate on one day next year for next year to be a success for them. Republicans do not need anyone to vote FOR republicans due to him firing Mueller, they just need not too many people to flock to the polls AGAINST them due to firing Mueller. And I think there is a decent chance this will come to fruition.
    Your entire theory is based on Trump being able to be re-elected with just his base. He can't. There aren't enough of them.

    Yes, him firing Mueller will help with his base (which, btw is not the entirety of the GOP base so we're talking a subset of a subset of the voters). Meanwhile it will encourage turnout among independents and democrats who will likely bury Trump and the GOP in 2018.

    I mean...you did see what happened in Alabama right?

  5. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by Lenonis View Post
    Your entire theory is based on Trump being able to be re-elected with just his base. He can't. There aren't enough of them.

    Yes, him firing Mueller will help with his base (which, btw is not the entirety of the GOP base so we're talking a subset of a subset of the voters). Meanwhile it will encourage turnout among independents and democrats who will likely bury Trump and the GOP in 2018.

    I mean...you did see what happened in Alabama right?

    I DID see what happened in Alabama. And I REALLY REALLY hope that similar things happen in November and that both the Senate and the House become blue, and that enough state seats flip for democrats to prevent the gerrymandering of the last decade from being extended another decade.

    But that is a year away. And I also remember what happened a year ago November.

  6. #86
    Titan Lenonis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    12,008
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    I DID see what happened in Alabama. And I REALLY REALLY hope that similar things happen in November and that both the Senate and the House become blue, and that enough state seats flip for democrats to prevent the gerrymandering of the last decade from being extended another decade.

    But that is a year away. And I also remember what happened a year ago November.
    Right -- not sure which thread I posted in but I did say that a year is a long time in political terms. And anything can really happen. However if we assume more-or-less status quo then Trump's popularity (or lack thereof) is not a plus for the GOP. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if some GOP candidates run on a soft anti-Trump platform in purple states.

  7. #87
    Titan Daelak's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Nashville, TN
    Posts
    14,203
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    Actually I very much do. It will neutralize a negative. And if he campaigns well throughout all of 2018, or most of it, which he is talking about doing, the sheer amount of feel good stories about his enthusiastic crowds shouting out praise and admiration for him will drown out any memories of the Mueller investigation.

    His supporters are 100% behind him, and he only needs republicans to have a decent approval rate on one day next year for next year to be a success for them. Republicans do not need anyone to vote FOR republicans due to him firing Mueller, they just need not too many people to flock to the polls AGAINST them due to firing Mueller. And I think there is a decent chance this will come to fruition.
    What historically happens in mid-term years is the party in power's faithful do not show up to vote due to apathy or snubbing their nose at perceived lack of progress made for their agenda. Republicans now will be up against the historical trend and having the most unpopular sitting president who is being investigated for criminal conspiracy with a hostile foreign adversary. I don't even think the Trump faithful will come out in droves.

  8. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    And if he campaigns well throughout all of 2018, or most of it, which he is talking about doing, the sheer amount of feel good stories about his enthusiastic crowds shouting out praise and admiration for him will drown out any memories of the Mueller investigation.
    There's a difference between his 2016 campaigning and the 2018 campaigning he will do: he can't run as an outsider. He has a record of incompetence and unpopularity that he's running on now, and all of the rapid successes he promised have not come to fruition. "I promise the wall will be build, believe me" can only work for so long.
    "As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."
    -H.L. Mencken, 1920

  9. #89
    Over 9000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    9,747
    The results were so close and it took Roy Moore being a pedophile even for that. I don't think its as big a victory as it seems.

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by Jotaux View Post
    The results were so close and it took Roy Moore being a pedophile even for that. I don't think its as big a victory as it seems.
    I don't think you understand that this happened in alabama, an evangelical state with a large portion of voters who think abortion is worse than pedophilia and has a much larger than regular population of bigots that vote R.

    Regardless, it's a seat that dems won't be defending in 2018. It means they need 2 seats in the senate instead of 3 to take the majority, a much easier prospect, even if they end up losing it in 2020 (as they likely will, because, again, alabama).
    Quote Originally Posted by Kelliak View Post
    I do not need to play the role of "holier than thou". I'm above that..

  11. #91
    Quote Originally Posted by Jotaux View Post
    The results were so close and it took Roy Moore being a pedophile even for that. I don't think its as big a victory as it seems.
    Its a massive victory. Trump won the state by 30 points. Do you understand how giant of a change that is? To overturn a 30 point advantage in a single year?
    Quote Originally Posted by Redtower View Post
    I don't think I ever hide the fact I was a national socialist. The fact I am a German one is what technically makes me a nazi
    Quote Originally Posted by Hooked View Post
    You haven't seen nothing yet, we trumpsters will definitely be getting some cool uniforms soon I hope.

  12. #92
    The Insane Kujako's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    In the woods, doing what bears do.
    Posts
    16,530
    Quote Originally Posted by alexw View Post
    Its a massive victory. Trump won the state by 30 points. Do you understand how giant of a change that is? To overturn a 30 point advantage in a single year?
    But it's more of a loss for Moore, than for the Republicans in general. All they have to do is run a non-pedophile candidate and they take the seat back. Remember that the difference between Moore and Jones was smaller than the number of Republican write in votes.
    It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed, the hands acquire shakes, the shakes become a warning.

    -Kujako-

  13. #93
    Last edited by Nihilist74; 2017-12-18 at 08:14 PM.

  14. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by Nihilist74 View Post
    Who knew that they were talking about their own party not knowing where to draw the line!! /s

  15. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by Gestopft View Post
    There's a difference between his 2016 campaigning and the 2018 campaigning he will do: he can't run as an outsider. He has a record of incompetence and unpopularity that he's running on now, and all of the rapid successes he promised have not come to fruition. "I promise the wall will be build, believe me" can only work for so long.
    He also can't campaign on the promise of becoming Presidential once he takes office.

    A lot of people were duped into that crazy idea a year ago, but no more.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Kujako View Post
    But it's more of a loss for Moore, than for the Republicans in general. All they have to do is run a non-pedophile candidate and they take the seat back. Remember that the difference between Moore and Jones was smaller than the number of Republican write in votes.
    In Alabama, yes. The reddest of the red states.
    But even before the pedophilia issue, Jones was running much stronger than any Democrat in recent Alabama history.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Lenonis View Post
    Right -- not sure which thread I posted in but I did say that a year is a long time in political terms.
    It is and it isn't.

    We are closer now to the 2018 election date than the 2016 one. And people's passions are not dying down.
    Expect them to ramp up even more once the primaries and campaigning begin in earnest in just a few months.
    Help control the population. Have your blood elf spayed or neutered.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •