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  1. #1
    Scarab Lord
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    Democrats flipped a Kentucky Seat in *another* Trump District

    It’s remarkable how much less neoliberal the Dems have gotten since Trump was elected (kidding).

    Seriously, has anyone who attributed near-apocalyptic importance to the question of which left-liberal would head the DNC and which would be the #2 because it was critical to the election prospects of the party concluded, consistently with this premise, that Tom Perez has been incredibly good at the job?
    Or is it more correct that election results are largely determined by structural factors, the chair of the DNC is not a terribly important position, and using the contest as a pretext to dramatically re-litigate the 2016 primaries was rather dumb?



    Democrats just flipped a Kentucky state legislature seat in a district Trump won by 49 points
    Democrat Linda Belcher was just pronounced the winner of the special election in Kentucky’s House District 49, a seat that Donald Trump carried by a 72-23 margin in 2016 and that went 66-33 for Mitt Romney in 2012.

    Her 68-32 victory represents a ridiculous 45-point improvement on Hillary Clinton’s performance. In fuller context, it’s a little less ridiculous than that. Belcher had previously represented this district in the state legislature, lost a very narrow 50.4-49.6 race in 2016; then the man who defeated her, Dan Johnson, killed himself while under a cloud of sexual assault allegations. The GOP nominated Johnson’s widow and Belcher reclaimed her old seat.


    cheers

  2. #2
    Stood in the Fire Seiklis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slacker76 View Post
    It’s remarkable how much less neoliberal the Dems have gotten since Trump was elected (kidding).

    Seriously, has anyone who attributed near-apocalyptic importance to the question of which left-liberal would head the DNC and which would be the #2 because it was critical to the election prospects of the party concluded, consistently with this premise, that Tom Perez has been incredibly good at the job?
    Or is it more correct that election results are largely determined by structural factors, the chair of the DNC is not a terribly important position, and using the contest as a pretext to dramatically re-litigate the 2016 primaries was rather dumb?



    Democrats just flipped a Kentucky state legislature seat in a district Trump won by 49 points
    Democrat Linda Belcher was just pronounced the winner of the special election in Kentucky’s House District 49, a seat that Donald Trump carried by a 72-23 margin in 2016 and that went 66-33 for Mitt Romney in 2012.

    Her 68-32 victory represents a ridiculous 45-point improvement on Hillary Clinton’s performance. In fuller context, it’s a little less ridiculous than that. Belcher had previously represented this district in the state legislature, lost a very narrow 50.4-49.6 race in 2016; then the man who defeated her, Dan Johnson, killed himself while under a cloud of sexual assault allegations. The GOP nominated Johnson’s widow and Belcher reclaimed her old seat.


    cheers
    This one was a bit different. This is the seat of the KY State Rep who shot himself after it came out he was molesting girls at the church he ran (read about the place, Johnson was basically a cult leader) Belcher was the previous state rep before Johnson managed to beat her in 2016 in the Trump wave.

    The GOP ran Johnson's widow against Belcher tonight....

    I wouldn't take much from this one as it was a former incumbent against the widow of a probable serial molester. The KY GOP pretty much threw this race in order to get the Johnson wing of the party gone

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seiklis View Post
    This one was a bit different. This is the seat of the KY State Rep who shot himself after it came out he was molesting girls at the church he ran (read about the place, Johnson was basically a cult leader) Belcher was the previous state rep before Johnson managed to beat her in 2016 in the Trump wave.

    The GOP ran Johnson's widow against Belcher tonight....

    I wouldn't take much from this one as it was a former incumbent against the widow of a probable serial molester. The KY GOP pretty much threw this race in order to get the Johnson wing of the party gone
    Did Trump get the memo that the GOP won't tolerate a "probable serial molester"? Trying to spin this as not a trend misses a lot of recent history.

  4. #4
    Stood in the Fire Seiklis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slacker76 View Post
    Did Trump get the memo that the GOP won't tolerate a "probable serial molester"? Trying to spin this as not a trend misses a lot of recent history.
    Oh no it's a trend I just wouldn't read a ton into this as a "Dems are back in Appalachia" moment. I wouldn't extrapolate this out to the Bredesen Senate race for instance.

    The bigger race tonight was actually in Wisconsin where the Dems won the Supreme Court runoff 54-46. If they're able to consolidate the losing judge's (Burns) voters to Dallet for the April Election, they'd reduce the GOP's court majority to 4-3

  5. #5
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    Hmmm seeing a lot of "but a widow" remarks. Which leads me to ask, why does a widow get less support than a living breathing Roy Moore?

    Still looks like a structural problem for the parties.

  6. #6
    The Insane cubby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seiklis View Post
    This one was a bit different. This is the seat of the KY State Rep who shot himself after it came out he was molesting girls at the church he ran (read about the place, Johnson was basically a cult leader) Belcher was the previous state rep before Johnson managed to beat her in 2016 in the Trump wave.

    The GOP ran Johnson's widow against Belcher tonight....

    I wouldn't take much from this one as it was a former incumbent against the widow of a probable serial molester. The KY GOP pretty much threw this race in order to get the Johnson wing of the party gone
    While different, it's demonstrable to the quality of character we're seeing from GOP candidates. The GOP is just getting more and more deplorable, like these sexual assault allegations and suicide, and there are no viable candidates to replace them (from the GOP side) - because at this point what sane person would want the GOP label by their name.

    I expect we'll see more wins like this - not necessarily exactly, obviously these exact circumstances were unique - but we will see a great turning of the tide.
    The less you know, the more you believe.

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  7. #7
    Moderator Yvaelle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slacker76 View Post
    Did Trump get the memo that the GOP won't tolerate a "probable serial molester"? Trying to spin this as not a trend misses a lot of recent history.
    Maybe he thinks 'tolerate' means 'denounce'?
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  8. #8
    Stood in the Fire Seiklis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    While different, it's demonstrable to the quality of character we're seeing from GOP candidates. The GOP is just getting more and more deplorable, like these sexual assault allegations and suicide, and there are no viable candidates to replace them (from the GOP side) - because at this point what sane person would want the GOP label by their name.

    I expect we'll see more wins like this - not necessarily exactly, obviously these exact circumstances were unique - but we will see a great turning of the tide.
    Yea that one I agree with. Until the last month or so the Pubs were having a hell of a time recruiting anyone. The last month or so with the generic ballot numbers tightening, the Pubs have done a bit better but with it stretching back out this week (something I don't see changing for at least 2-3 weeks at minimum), I kind of wonder if Rick Scott for instance might decide to stay home and play with his money.
    I guess we'll see with who challenges Belcher in November to see if this is a real movement in Appalachia or just a blip with extenuating circumstances. If it's Johnson again (I doubt it), it'll probably be another slaughter. If it's a serious candidate though we'd actually get data on how much KY might have moved since 2016.

    It's a slow process to actually get workable data sometimes

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