Beta Key Giveaway Week 3: Winners have been selected!

  1. #1
    The Squared Circle Connal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    San Diego, CA
    Posts
    24,194

    Warm Arctic means colder, snowier winters in northeastern US, study says

    Warm Arctic means colder, snowier winters in northeastern US, study says
    Source: https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0313130629.htm

    Scientists have linked the frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States to Arctic temperatures.

    Scientists from Rutgers University-New Brunswick and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) have linked the frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States to Arctic temperatures.

    Their research was published today in Nature Communications.

    "Basically, this confirms the story I've been telling for a couple of years now," said study co-author Jennifer Francis, research professor of marine and coastal sciences in Rutgers' School of Environmental and Biological Sciences. "Warm temperatures in the Arctic cause the jet stream to take these wild swings, and when it swings farther south, that causes cold air to reach farther south. These swings tend to hang around for awhile, so the weather we have in the eastern United States, whether it's cold or warm, tends to stay with us longer."

    The research is timely given the extreme winter of 2017-2018, including record warm Arctic and low sea ice, record-breaking polar vortex disruption, record-breaking cold and disruptive snowfalls in the United States and Europe, severe "bomb cyclones" and costly nor'easters, said Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at AER and lead author of the study.

    In their study, Cohen, Francis and AER's Karl Pfeiffer found that severe winter weather is two to four times more likely in the eastern United States when the Arctic is abnormally warm than when the Arctic is abnormally cold. Their findings also show that winters are colder in the northern latitudes of Europe and Asia when the Arctic is warm.

    Paradoxically, the study shows that severe winter weather in the western United States is more likely when the Arctic is colder than normal.

    The researchers found that when Arctic warming occurred near the surface, the connection to severe winter weather was weak. When the warming extended into the stratosphere, however, disruptions of the stratospheric polar vortex were likely. These disruptions usually cause severe winter weather in mid- to late winter and affect large metropolitan centers of the northeastern United States.

    "Five of the past six winters have brought persistent cold to the eastern U.S. and warm, dry conditions to the West, while the Arctic has been off-the-charts warm," Francis said. "Our study suggests that this is no coincidence. Exactly how much the Arctic contributed to the severity or persistence of the pattern is still hard to pin down, but it's becoming very difficult to believe they are unrelated."
    We should get used to more extreme weather as a consequence of climate change.

  2. #2
    Elemental Lord Grimbold21's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Azores, Portugal
    Posts
    8,357
    And in Europe. Had like 2 or 3 cold weeks.

  3. #3
    Anung un Rama Endus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Ottawa, ON
    Posts
    52,148
    Reminder that regional weather /= global climate.

    A warmer arctic leads to changes in major weather patterns, which can blow colder Arctic air down over the continent. The globe's still warming up, on average. The Arctic in particular is warming dramatically.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Grimbold21 View Post
    And in Europe. Had like 2 or 3 cold weeks.
    christ it was freezing
    Take this quiz and find out which orc you are!

  5. #5
    The Squared Circle Connal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    San Diego, CA
    Posts
    24,194
    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    Reminder that regional weather /= global climate.

    A warmer arctic leads to changes in major weather patterns, which can blow colder Arctic air down over the continent. The globe's still warming up, on average. The Arctic in particular is warming dramatically.
    It's sad that you/scientists have to keep repeating this... but yeah, weather gets more variable because there is more energy in the system. Which means the "extremes" at both ends, the lows, and highs, are deeper.

  6. #6
    Anung un Rama Endus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Ottawa, ON
    Posts
    52,148
    Quote Originally Posted by Connal View Post
    It's sad that you/scientists have to keep repeating this... but yeah, weather gets more variable because there is more energy in the system. Which means the "extremes" at both ends, the lows, and highs, are deeper.
    To put it another way, picture the climate like a wave pool. It's currently 5 feet deep; just deep enough that when the waves aren't active, most people can get their heads out with their feet on the bottom. Normal climate involves a 1-foot wave. So peaks are 6 feet deep, troughs are 4 feet. People enjoy this. Everyone has fun.

    Now the system goes haywire. The pool starts to slowly fill up, but since the wave system is based on the volume of liquid (ignore the physics, it's an analogy), the waves get bigger way faster. When the pools at 5.25 feet average depth, that's only an extra 3 inches. But the waves quadruple that. The peaks are now at 7.25 feet, and the troughs at 3.25. Not only are people being picked up way higher, but they're getting SLAMMED down into the floor a lot harder. Nobody is enjoying this. Panic ensues. People who were learning to swim are drowning. Everything goes to hell. Because of an extra three inches of water.

    Climate variance operates around that average. The average is changing slowly, but the variance is expanding much more quickly. It's these extremes that will be the short-term impact generators, not the slow increase in the average temperature (though the latter, obviously, drives the former).

  7. #7
    I believe it, we're getting bombarded with snow right not in Northern Worcester county in Massachusetts right now.
    Opinions and critiques of my art are most welcome! Take a gander
    http://bearbones85.deviantart.com/

  8. #8
    NY here, this winter has sucked ass, at this rate we’re not going to have decent weather till June.
    A cracked polystyrene man

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •