AZ-08 Special Election Tied in Dead Heat

[Milchshake]

Having trouble reading the tea leaves in national polls? How about measuring political trends by actual elections?

From the teams that brought you Special Election PA-18, now present the Arizona District 8 Special Election on April 24th.
New Polling shows it's a dead heat. With Hiral Tipirneni (D) narrowly leading with 46 percent, compared to former state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R), who is at 45 percent — well within the poll’s margin of error.

Again, this was a district that Trump carried by 20 points. Usually a really tough seat for Democrats. I mean, this is Trent Franks’ seat, who resigned after trying to coerce some lady into being his surrogate. But Republicans are throwing tons of money at this because they now have to do so even for the reddest districts. I doubt Democrats can win, but another close election will say a lot about what will happen in November.

Lessons from PA-18 that could apply to AZ-08:

• The GOP Tax Plan is polling at 29% approval. Not enough people are getting enough of a pay bump to get that "costco membership" or a "cell phone".
• The GOP tried appeals based on the identity politics of ethno nationalism, that didn't work either.
• The GOP tried the Pelosi Effect, again another fail at identity politics.

Plan B, bombing Syria, might do the trick.
Or maybe identity politics of a positive nature like; defending and expanding civil rights, or expanding social services?

[PosPosPos]

Having trouble reading the tea leaves in national polls? How about measuring political trends by actual elections?

From the teams that brought you Special Election PA-18, now present the Arizona District 8 Special Election on April 24th.
New Polling shows it's a dead heat. With Hiral Tipirneni (D) narrowly leading with 46 percent, compared to former state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R), who is at 45 percent — well within the poll’s margin of error.

Again, this was a district that Trump carried by 20 points. Usually a really tough seat for Democrats. I mean, this is Trent Franks’ seat, who resigned after trying to coerce some lady into being his surrogate. But Republicans are throwing tons of money at this because they now have to do so even for the reddest districts. I doubt Democrats can win, but another close election will say a lot about what will happen in November.

Lessons from PA-18 that could apply to AZ-08:

• The GOP Tax Plan is polling at 29% approval. Not enough people are getting enough of a pay bump to get that "costco membership" or a "cell phone".
• The GOP tried appeals based on the identity politics of ethno nationalism, that didn't work either.
• The GOP tried the Pelosi Effect, again another fail at identity politics.

Plan B, bombing Syria, might do the trick.
Or maybe identity politics of a positive nature like; defending and expanding civil rights, or expanding social services?

Their voterbase feeds off negativity, so I can't see "identity politics of a positive nature" doing anything but backfiring.

[Breccia]

The GOP are going to edge out on this one. They're going to pull out all the stops, door-to-door, to stem the bleeding. They can't face another embarrassing loss, not in AZ especially.

[Sormine]

The fact that the reds can even gain popularity by bombing Syria (after the bullshit they spewed in 2016) makes this feel so hopeless.

[Travis B]

The GOP are going to edge out on this one. They're going to pull out all the stops, door-to-door, to stem the bleeding. They can't face another embarrassing loss, not in AZ especially.

With the race this close, all they need to do is use their tried-and-true voter suppression tactics.

[BrerBear]

The GOP are going to edge out on this one. They're going to pull out all the stops, door-to-door, to stem the bleeding. They can't face another embarrassing loss, not in AZ especially.

And they will claim it as a great victory.

[Breccia]

And they will claim it as a great victory.

Eh, stemming the bleeding, at this point, would be a great victory.

[Milchshake]

And they will claim it as a great victory.

As with PA-18, Trump will take credit for the victory if the GOP wins. Trumps will blame the candidate for not being Trump enough if they lose.
Win/Win for the Party of Trump.

[cubby]

With the race this close, all they need to do is use their tried-and-true voter suppression tactics.

That and the EC are about the only way the GOP gets people into office nowadays.

[Seiklis]

Nah this one isn't gonna flip. Early voting is extremely strong in this district and it leans Republican by around 20 points. Sun City is one of the biggest retirement communities in the West (and pretty much anywhere) and it lies inside this district keeping what otherwise would be a swing district pretty ruby red. I mean the early voting mean voting age is something insane like 68 years old showing that alot of the early voting is coming in from Sun City.

That said if it ends up with 6-7 point difference and Tipirneni wins election day voting by more than 5, that should send some more red flags off.

[Tijuana]

Having trouble reading the tea leaves in national polls? How about measuring political trends by actual elections?

From the teams that brought you Special Election PA-18, now present the Arizona District 8 Special Election on April 24th.
New Polling shows it's a dead heat. With Hiral Tipirneni (D) narrowly leading with 46 percent, compared to former state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R), who is at 45 percent — well within the poll’s margin of error.

Again, this was a district that Trump carried by 20 points. Usually a really tough seat for Democrats. I mean, this is Trent Franks’ seat, who resigned after trying to coerce some lady into being his surrogate. But Republicans are throwing tons of money at this because they now have to do so even for the reddest districts. I doubt Democrats can win, but another close election will say a lot about what will happen in November.

Lessons from PA-18 that could apply to AZ-08:

• The GOP Tax Plan is polling at 29% approval. Not enough people are getting enough of a pay bump to get that "costco membership" or a "cell phone".
• The GOP tried appeals based on the identity politics of ethno nationalism, that didn't work either.
• The GOP tried the Pelosi Effect, again another fail at identity politics.

Plan B, bombing Syria, might do the trick.
Or maybe identity politics of a positive nature like; defending and expanding civil rights, or expanding social services?

It continues to amuse me, that the posters here think the corporate tax cut doesn't impact the middle class. Regardless of the modest cut to income taxes, cutting the corporate tax will make retirement better for every responsible American.

[Travis B]

It continues to amuse me, that the posters here think the corporate tax cut doesn't impact the middle class.

I don't think anyone here has argued it won't impact the middle class. The middle class is going to be the one picking up the tab for those tax cuts, so yeah they will definitely be impacted.

[breadisfunny]

It continues to amuse me, that the posters here think the corporate tax cut doesn't impact the middle class. Regardless of the modest cut to income taxes, cutting the corporate tax will make retirement better for every responsible American.

and how will it do that?

[Tijuana]

and how will it do that?

Because money is good. Paying less taxes on the part of your money that makes money, is good. Economic growth benefits everyone who has investments, wants a job, or has a job.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't think anyone here has argued it won't impact the middle class. The middle class is going to be the one picking up the tab for those tax cuts, so yeah they will definitely be impacted.

The middle class benefits from those tax cuts. Who do you think owns corporations? Do you legit not know what a publicly traded company is?

[Travis B]

The middle class benefits from those tax cuts. Who do you think owns corporations? Do you legit not know what a publicly traded company is?

Some facts for you:

About 50% of American adults don't own any stocks.

Only 27% of the middle class have significant stock holdings (over $10,000).

84% of all shares are owned by the richest 10% of Americans.

http://time.com/money/5054009/stock-...rcent-richest/

[Sormine]

Because money is good. Paying less taxes on the part of your money that makes money, is good. Economic growth benefits everyone who has investments, wants a job, or has a job.

I'd just like everyone reading this to understand that it has been about 30 years since the rise of Reaganomics (and 10 years since its autopsy).

And we still have people like Tijuana here who think it provides substantial economic growth.

[Tijuana]

Some facts for you:

About 50% of American adults don't own any stocks.

Only 27% of the middle class have significant stock holdings (over $10,000).

84% of all shares are owned by the richest 10% of Americans.

http://time.com/money/5054009/stock-...rcent-richest/

100% of responsible Americans have investments of some kind (individual stocks are dumb). You list excludes pensions, which make up a massive amount of total investment in stock markets.

If your argument is that it's unfair that the wealthy got their taxes cut more than the poor, you should consider the obvious fact that the poor were not paying the same taxes to begin with. You can't really give huge tax cuts, when your base tax is so modest to begin with. It's hard to make a big impact on such a small number to begin with.

[Stormspellz]

100% of responsible Americans have investments of some kind (individual stocks are dumb). You list excludes pensions, which make up a massive amount of total investment in stock markets.

If your argument is that it's unfair that the wealthy got their taxes cut more than the poor, you should consider the obvious fact that the poor were not paying the same taxes to begin with. You can't really give huge tax cuts, when your base tax is so modest to begin with. It's hard to make a big impact on such a small number to begin with.

haha pensions.

should and can do are different things, and most of the middle class can't afford to be investing, heck most of them can't afford thinking about retirement.

also.

“Despite the fact that almost half of all households owned stock shares either directly or indirectly through mutual funds, trusts, or various pension accounts, the richest 10% of households controlled 84% of the total value of these stocks in 2016,” Wolff writes

[Travis B]

100% of responsible Americans have investments of some kind (individual stocks are dumb). You list excludes pensions, which make up a massive amount of total investment in stock markets.

Actually, if you read the article, it includes pensions.

“Despite the fact that almost half of all households owned stock shares either directly or indirectly through mutual funds, trusts, or various pension accounts, the richest 10% of households controlled 84% of the total value of these stocks in 2016,” Wolff writes.

[Kasierith]

It continues to amuse me, that the posters here think the corporate tax cut doesn't impact the middle class. Regardless of the modest cut to income taxes, cutting the corporate tax will make retirement better for every responsible American.

Any potential benefit on income is going to potentially be strongly mitigated by the changes to itemized deductions. Itemized deductions are massively impactful for two groups of people: middle class Americans who have a good amount of material goods but can still readily benefit from donations, and small companies (ie the kind you're talking about that would be owned by middle class Americans) that use them on a routine basis, often to the point that they're incorporated into the regular day to day finances that keep the company going.

I say potentially because the tax plan is so vague that even now there is no clear direction where itemized deductions are going, on the last day of tax season. But the across the board removal of them is a distinct possibility on the table that is going to hit middle class Americans substantially hard, and at least a substantial impact on them is what is currently expected by experts in the field. This is why people are saying that the middle class will be paying for the tax cuts, because the deductions that are being trimmed down to make room for the large corporations are heavily associated with the middle class.