August 7th primaries and special election

[Deleted]

Green party voters are idiots who keep shooting themselves in the foot due to not understanding FPTP.

It's like screaming you hate the Tories but vote Lib Dem in a Tory/Labour marginal. You're throwing away your vote at best, helping the Tories at worst. FPTP is more about voting against the worst candidate as it is voting for best.

Idiots for neither big platform appealing to them but still participating in the democratic process?

ok.

[Realitytrembles]

So I'm going to make three forward looking statements now.

(1) The Republicans "get out the base" strategy is already not yielding results, due to the fact that their base has shrunk, largely due to Trump and his platform. They are emphasisizing how they need people to come out of vote. And yet they are not. And Democrats and independents are in droves.

(2) Trump's reputation as being the kiss of death in general elections is starting to look more and more like something that could be generalized. He can help candidates win in primaries, but people want to vote against him in the general. Republicans nation wide will take notice of this.

(3) Now more than ever, if Republicans fare badly in November, Trump will be impeached and any Trumpkin thinking otherwise is lying to themselves. Republicans will not want to go into 2020 with him. Finding a majority in the house would actually be he hard part. Finding 67 votes in the Senate? A lot easier than Trumpkins imagine. Especially with exactly who is up for re-election in 2020. It's a perfect storm for Trump.

All good points, but I think the stumbling block is the Senate. I don't have confidence in enough GOP senators to think they can make it to 67 votes to convict. The threat of being primaried by far-Right purists is just too great.

[Milchshake]

Idiots for neither big platform appealing to them but still participating in the democratic process?

ok.

Idiots because one party is openly hostile environmentalism, and the Greens have a habit of tossing margin thin elections to those guys.

Sorry that staying in the Paris accords or a worthwhile EPA is beneath US Greens. Damn shame neither big party appeals to their vaccine conspiracies. Though why do Greens continue to take GOP money? Too stupid to connect the dots....

Studies have shown withholding your vote in the US system is dumb and counter productive.

[Felya]

Had to drive to a polling pace, because I am a procrastinator. Made with 40 minutes to spare... Two votes for Bob Dole... never forget...

[Omega10]

Missouri voters also got rid of their state's right to work law by referendum, 62% to 38%. This is the first time such a thing has happened, and it's arguably bigger than a close special election that's going to be re-litigated again in three months, even if the Democrats closed an 18 point gap. Hopefully similar referendums will get on the ballot in other states.

Besides all of the other amazing points you made about this vote - the margin of victory is a LOT more than I expected. Since 1980 or so, republicans have won their crusade for lower wages for American workers pretty decisively - and now there is finally a bit of pushback. Hopefully this is just the start of a process that will reverse the damage republicans have inflicted on the US.

[Deleted]

Idiots because one party is openly hostile environmentalism, and the Greens have a habit of tossing margin thin elections to those guys.

Sorry that staying in the Paris accords or a worthwhile EPA is beneath US Greens. Damn shame neither big party appeals to their vaccine conspiracies. Though why do Greens continue to take GOP money? Too stupid to connect the dots....

Studies have shown withholding your vote in the US system is dumb and counter productive.

I've no love for the US Greens but grandstanding on a point that wouldn't have swayed the election anyway, then mocking and chastising green voters to loyally pony up for whatever democrat is put infront of them is clearly a great plan to win future votes.

[szechuan]

Green party voters are idiots who keep shooting themselves in the foot due to not understanding FPTP.

They're voting against there own interest, some of them do it willingly most likely as a "Protest Vote".

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I've no love for the US Greens but grandstanding on a point that wouldn't have swayed the election anyway, then mocking and chastising green voters to loyally pony up for whatever democrat is put infront of them is clearly a great plan to win future votes.

Knew a person who refused to accept that his/her Green Party vote (the person voted for Jill Stein) was a Protest Vote, It didn't end well ROFL.

[Slybak]

I've no love for the US Greens but grandstanding on a point that wouldn't have swayed the election anyway, then mocking and chastising green voters to loyally pony up for whatever democrat is put infront of them is clearly a great plan to win future votes.

Voting isn't a test of your own moral worth, and even less an exercise in picking brand loyalties by atomized consumers. Seeing it in such terms makes sense if you're a libertarian - being an atomized consumer is pretty much the sum total of libertarian political thinking - but not if you have even the slightest disposition toward the common good.

Voting is the process by which collective self-governance is accomplished. It's not demonstrating to your friends what great taste in food you have by ordering the perfect item off the menu when you're all out at a restaurant; its how you all decide to split the check.

[Skroe]

All good points, but I think the stumbling block is the Senate. I don't have confidence in enough GOP senators to think they can make it to 67 votes to convict. The threat of being primaried by far-Right purists is just too great.

On the contrary, if it gets to the point Trump has to be forced from office via vote (rather than pressured to resign), I think the following will happen.

(1) There will be the very rare Closed Session of the Senate.
(2) McConnell and Schumer, who have a much better working relationship than McConnell and Reid, will drop on the rest of the body the deal that they worked out ahead of the Senate. The deal will involve not politicizing this in elections ahead.
(3) McConnell will employ a defense-in-depth for his caucus for future primaries, and have almost all Republican's join Democrats for removal.

This is all based on one supposition: that what Mueller drops on Congress' lap is so damning and so overwhelming that it puts Republicans in an impossible position with regards to their own American principles and political future.

I want to contrast this against the Clinton impeachment. In that, when it got to that closed sesson and Senate vote, it really became a matter as to if you thought the entire proceeding was bullshit, and if getting a blowjob and lying about it comes to the level of high crimes and misdemeanors. In other words, there is a lot of room to waffle. If the evidence Mueller has is of that nature... good chance impeachment would fail.

But I think that on the basis of what we already know, and have seen alone, it's not likely going to be that. I think we're in for the other end of the spectrum: that Donald Trump is somebody who never should have been elected President on the basis of crimes he had committed and a long subservience to Russian interests, likely because of those crimes.

In other words I think whereas with Clinton Impeachment, "the prosecution" was scouring for votes to hit a high threshold, I think with Trump impeachment, there would natively an vast majority, if Republicans and Democrats can create the political conditions for it to happen.

[Zaydin]

People planning on voting for a third party candidate might as well just set their ballots on fire because it's just throwing away your vote.

[Flarelaine]

Green party voters are idiots who keep shooting themselves in the foot due to not understanding FPTP.

It's like screaming you hate the Tories but vote Lib Dem in a Tory/Labour marginal. You're throwing away your vote at best, helping the Tories at worst. FPTP is more about voting against the worst candidate as it is voting for best.

On this tangent, there's something I've been meaning to ask for some time... I understand FPTP is a time-honoured tradition, but man, it is bad. If it was to be changed would it involve federal legislation or is it in state jurisdiction?

[DarkTZeratul]

On this tangent, there's something I've been meaning to ask for some time... I understand FPTP is a time-honoured tradition, but man, it is bad. If it was to be changed would it involve federal legislation or is it in state jurisdiction?

With regards to the electoral college as a whole, that would require a constitutional amendment. However, the way those electoral votes are allocated is entirely up to the individual states.

[Flarelaine]

With regards to the electoral college as a whole, that would require a constitutional amendment. However, the way those electoral votes are allocated is entirely up to the individual states.

No, I did not mean the electoral college. I meant all the rest, specifically House seats. Sorry I did not clarify.

(In any event, the electoral college isn't FPTP, one needs 50%+1 to win - though I only know of one election when that actually mattered.)

[DarkTZeratul]

No, I did not mean the electoral college. I meant all the rest, specifically House seats. Sorry I did not clarify.

(In any event, the electoral college isn't FPTP, one needs 50%+1 to win - though I only know of one election when that actually mattered.)

I mean, that's exactly what FPTP is.

As to your question regarding Congressional Representatives, I was going to say that would also require a constitutional amendment but on further reading it doesn't actually specify how they are to be selected except that it be "by the people":

Section 2

1: The House of Representatives shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several States, and the Electors in each State shall have the Qualifications requisite for Electors of the most numerous Branch of the State Legislature.

2: No Person shall be a Representative who shall not have attained to the Age of twenty five Years, and been seven Years a Citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State in which he shall be chosen.

3: The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct. The Number of Representatives shall not exceed one for every thirty Thousand, but each State shall have at Least one Representative.

4: When vacancies happen in the Representation from any State, the Executive Authority thereof shall issue Writs of Election to fill such Vacancies.

5: The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers; and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment.

[Flarelaine]

I mean, that's exactly what FPTP is.

No, FPTP is simply whoever has the most votes. If you look up specific results, seats are often carried by 48-49% of the vote whenever there's a third party. (As are states in presidential elections. Trump carried 8 states with less than 50%.)

Thanks for the quote on Congress seats.

[Mafic]

Democrats need to start winning. Sending a message hasn't worked when it has counted.

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Troy Balderson leads by 0.8 percentage points, or 1,685 votes, over Danny O’Connor with 99 percent of precincts fully reporting.

O'Connor may have lost...but Baldy didn't exactly win either.

Balderson was down double digits to O'Connor and closed the gap for the close win.

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I have zero confidence in the Dems to actually take advantage of this.

If they become complacent then what you said is true.

[Ghostpanther]

I am of course glad Balderson looks like he will win this special election ( not official yet ). But it I still think it is silly to have one this close to the mid terms. Like whoever wins is going to have to redo the same thing all over again in 3 months. But got to hand it to the Democrats, they ran a smart and effective campaign and could do even better in 3 months. So much depends on who has the largest turn out. But like the one in Pa. a few months ago when Lamb won, the smart thing for the Democrats is to run on a moderate platform.

Also of note is, when all the votes are counted in this special election, from the provisional ones and other outstanding votes, if the winner wins by less then .5%, they will have to do a recount. We may not know for certain who the winner is until late this month. :P

[SirBeef]

Does it even matter if they only win by a slim margin? A win is a win for the Repubs and a loss is a loss for the Dems.

Yes it matters because this is a special election, in which, historically, republicans turn out at a higher percentage than democrats. This bodes well for November, for those close districts. Like Skore said, the GOP and donors spent millions on a midterm special election in a traditionally safe district and may lose. They cannot spend like this in every contested safe district.

[Ghostpanther]

Yes it matters because this is a special election, in which, historically, republicans turn out at a higher percentage than democrats. This bodes well for November, for those close districts. Like Skore said, the GOP and donors spent millions on a midterm special election in a traditionally safe district and may lose. They cannot spend like this in every contested safe district.

The Democrats outspent the Republicans in this special election in Ohio.

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There are still thousands of provisional and mail-in ballots uncounted in Ohio's 12th District, by the way.

True. But notice which 2 counties have the largest amount of outstanding absentees votes not counted yet. Licking and Delaware. Which Balderson is heavily favored.

[Voidwielder]

Regardless of who wins, this is ominious for Republicans and there is no legitimate spinning this as a "win".

They district is a slam-dunk district, and one that Trump campaigned in for this candidate, and it's going to be decided by less than 1000 votes. Republicans cannot afford to fight ever district less vulnerable than this one - which is to say most districts - like this in the Fall.

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Also Kobach suckin wind in Kansas.

Trump is the kiss of death.

You said it yourself, the Presidency will hit a dead end and a complete gridlock by this Fall. So why bother? Just wait out two more years. You seem like a patriotic American, I would be much more concerned about the hijacking of Democratic party for radicals and the rise of DSA.