Nov 6, 2018 - Midterms *MEGA* Thread

[cubby]

The United States of America is entering the final few weeks before a major election, known as the midterms, happening on Nov 6. On this day America will choose the following:

435 House of Representatives (polls)
35 Senator seats - including special elections in Minnesota and Mississippi (polls)
36 State Governors (polls)
Multiple State Ballot Measures

I'll be using fivethirtyeight.com polling data, as it is an aggregate of polls and other information. Clicking on the sites linked will take you to each sections current polling data. I've found them to have good, accurate data over the long haul. Please keep in mind polling data is just that, data, not a statement of what will happen, but a statement what the probability of something happening will be.

If you feel there is a better site, and I agree, I will incorporate it into the OP.

This thread is to contain and support all discussion going into the 2018 Midterm elections. Please PM me if you have something you think should be in the OP, I'll add it if it will positively affect the discussion.

People are calling this a historical election after what the United States' has been through over the past two years. Each "side" has a different opinion and will have guaranteed spin on events leading up to election day. For those not familiar with the United States government:

The House of Representatives is elected every two years. To control the majority, you must have 218 seats from your party, or independents that will "caucus" with your party. Control of the House means you choose Committee Chairs and are responsible for the legislative agenda. The Speaker of the House is chosen from the Majority party, after a new Congress is sat.

The Senate has 100 members, approximately 1/3 of whom are elected each two year cycle. In this case two special elections means 35 seats are up for grabs. If control of the Senate is tied, i.e. 50 Senators from each party, the Vice President would make the deciding vote, and the Senate would be Republican (for this Session).

Governors are elected at different times according to their respective state rules.

A number of state and local ballots are also up for vote. They vary from state to state.

Please be respectful and considerate to each others opinions. This will be a hell of an election year.


Update: State poll closing times.

Polls closing in some states. Interactive maps to watch results as they come in:

CNN's coverage

[Gestopft]

Whoohooo midterms megathreaaaaaaaaad!!!

Anyhoo- I should be getting my ballot this week, some states have early voting already and are seeing record numbers. It will be really interesting to see what turnout ends up being this year as compared to previous midterm elections.

My prediction: Democrats take the House, GoP holds the Senate, Democrats gain in governorships.

[Dacien]

My mail-in ballot came yesterday. My state is clinched for Dems, so not much matters outside of local stuff and Propositions. Still gonna vote for everything anyway. Lesser of two evils and all that.

[Machismo]

My mail-in ballot came yesterday. My state is clinched fornDems, so not much matters outside of local stuff and Propositions. Still gonna vote for everything anyway. Lesser of two evils and all that.

But there are more than two choices. But grats in choosing evil, that's your thing, after all.

[Adam Jensen]

My votes were blue and white. I voted via absentee ballot about 2-3 days ago.

Maine has ranked voting.

For House, I voted for Jared Golden (D) and the Independents after him. I ranked Bruce Poliquin (R) in last place because he's a coward who's owned by Big Pharma.

For Senate I voted for Zak Ringelstein (D), because I wasn't totally happy with our incumbent, Angus King (I), but I ranked King #2 since I still view him favorably. If either King or Ringelstein win, I won't be upset.

In 2020, I'll be enthusiastically voting Susan Collins out of office, but that's 2 years from now.

[Dacien]

I just hope prop 6 passes in California. Ridiculous tax that won't make traffic any better. We have some of the highest taxes in the nation already, in the top three for gas tax last time I checked, and somehow they need more! And it hits the poor and middle class the hardest.

Vote YES on Prop 6! Repeal the gas tax!

[Eveningforest]

My prediction: Democrats take the House, GoP holds the Senate, Democrats gain in governorships.

Same opinion here.

Thanks for all your efforts, Cubby.

[Shadowferal]

Ballot measures can be found here

[Xeones]

Well as much as I think Manchin is a criminal who belongs in prison, there is no way in hell I'm voting Morrisey.

Anyways here is hoping we take the house so we get 2 years of many many investigations on the oh so very many criminal aspects of this administration.

Also lol at Dacien claiming to vote for the lesser evil.

[Dacien]

Also lol at Dacien claiming to vote for the lesser evil.

It's my voting philosophy. Even if I'm presented with two terrible candidates, one of them is going to be worse than the other, even if only by a little bit, so vote against them. Others take a moral stand, whereby if neither candidate meets a certain standard of quality, neither earns their vote.

[PACOX]

Got my mail in. Probably submit it today or tomorrow. Black ink all the way down.

[cubby]

Ballot measures can be found here

Thank you - added above.

There are some fun ones this year - as always.

[Slant]

So, for the folks outside the US, like me. Chances are good that Democrats will gain control of Congress? That would effectively render Trump impotent, wouldn't it? I mean, even more than now.

[Skroe]

I'm looking forward to voting Democrats into the Trump-Russia Grand Jury.

[Slant]

I'm looking forward to voting Democrats into the Trump-Russia Grand Jury.

Would the hearing setup change with congress ratios? That would be... amazing.

[Xeones]

It's my voting philosophy. Even if I'm presented with two terrible candidates, one of them is going to be worse than the other, even if only by a little bit, so vote against them. Others take a moral stand, whereby if neither candidate meets a certain standard of quality, neither earns their vote.

Nah I was just laughing at your joke.

[cubby]

So, for the folks outside the US, like me. Chances are good that Democrats will gain control of Congress? That would effectively render Trump impotent, wouldn't it? I mean, even more than now.

Good question.

The odds are good that the Democrats will get control of the House of Representatives. Which means that any new legislation that comes through will have to go through Democratic controlled approval processes.

However, the Senate is likely to stay Republican, and the Senate confirmed all judges. And that is where the GOP is currently consolidating their power.

So the answer is yes, and no.

[Shadowferal]

So, for the folks outside the US, like me. Chances are good that Democrats will gain control of Congress? That would effectively render Trump impotent, wouldn't it? I mean, even more than now.

Two parts; The House of Representatives
The Senate

Looks good for the House, but the Senate probably not.

[Xeones]

So, for the folks outside the US, like me. Chances are good that Democrats will gain control of Congress? That would effectively render Trump impotent, wouldn't it? I mean, even more than now.

No chances are not good Democrats will take congress. Seems possible to get a majority in the house. Really unlikely to take the senate. Ideal scenario right now seems to be breaking even with the current seat arrangement there.

[cubby]

I'm looking forward to voting Democrats into the Trump-Russia Grand Jury.

The House would get his tax records, and finally see all the shit Nunes was hiding. Could be interesting, as my Poli Sci profession once said.