1. #2421
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    Tech is different from other sectors. In a world of single digit profit margins, tech is full of companies with double digit profit margins. Apple and Microsoft net profit margins in 4th quarter 2019 were 21% and 33% respectively. When they said that their revenue won’t meet expectations, that do no mean that they are suddenly unprofitable. They are still profitable. In fact, by other sectors standard, they are highly profitable. That just meant that their revenue will be less than the projected numbers. Just for comparison, Walmart net profit margin for 4th quarter 2019 was 2.77%.

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    Thank you for this. I feel very reassured. The American economy will fall quite a bit it seems, but there IS a stable bottom that can be relied upon.

    I can envision next Spring devoted to Americans rebuilding our infrastructure with government money, and corporations building factories in the US to augment the ones in China so that we have backup sources of supplies to use as needed. We'll have new social and societal rules to deal with a post-virus world, but I can see a glimmer of hope for success. Or at least survival!

  2. #2422
    Quote Originally Posted by Low Hanging Fruit View Post
    Guess this is why you don't give massive corporate tax cuts on the bet everything can only get awsomer.
    to be fair how would he know infrastructure....no wait...healthcare....no wait....the economy would be so hard???
    Whether SHE IS INDICTED OR EVEN GUILTY IT DOESNT MATTER. HER GUILT IS A MOOT POINT!!! - Fox News 2016
    You don’t have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this Constitutional Republic,” - Sen (r) Graham 1999

  3. #2423
    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    to be fair how would he know infrastructure....no wait...healthcare....no wait....the economy would be so hard???
    Prepare for the worse.

    It is pretty obvious now the whole structure of this economy is held up by the tiniest of threads and just waiting to snap whenever disaster strikes.

  4. #2424
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    Tech is different from other sectors. In a world of single digit profit margins, tech is full of companies with double digit profit margins. Apple and Microsoft net profit margins in 4th quarter 2019 were 21% and 33% respectively. When they said that their revenue won’t meet expectations, that do no mean that they are suddenly unprofitable. They are still profitable. In fact, by other sectors standard, they are highly profitable. That just meant that their revenue will be less than the projected numbers. Just for comparison, Walmart net profit margin for 4th quarter 2019 was 2.77%.
    .
    Well I am not so rosy about these companies.

    double digit profit margins can quickly become tiny or negative. Especially since these companies flushed with cash will be expected to not lay off people because of the very bad press it will be for them.


    How many high margin phones do you think they will be selling if we have 10% unemployment?

    Msft might benefit short term, but with 10-15 million less workers using their software at businesses that is a major hit to revenue.

    With these reduced revenue and profit projections, they all of a sudden in the short term become overpriced stocks. P/E's exploding.

    They might not be as risky and won't see anywhere near the impact other industries and companies have but they are far from safe havens.


    Walmart is more stable believe it or not. That is what you get with Consumer Staples industry sector.

    Those low profit margins really don't move much even with large impact scenarios in this industry. Even if you look at 2008-2009 they really hardly budged. Only thing that effects them is poor management vs competition which they have done a great job turning that around vs amazon.


    https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...profit-margins
    https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...-profit-margin


    because of the sheer trillions of products sold a year they have such great ability to fractionally increase prices to increase margins at a level consumers would not even notice making up for lost customer traffic because of unemployment

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    welp one good thing about the media and democratic attack on airlines doing so much stock buybacks and exec pay then crying for bailouts.....

    other companies are rushing to pay and give quick economic help, bonuses and temporary raises to get good press.

    Of course this will mostly be funded by the money they saved in taxes over the last two years




    https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/walm...mic-2020-03-20

    Hourly workers at Walmart (NYSE: WMT) are being given a "mini stimulus package" as the retail giant said it would distribute nearly $550 million worth of bonuses to them as a reward for the work they've done during the coronavirus pandemic.

    Walmart's full-time hourly employees will receive a $300 bonus; part-time workers will get a $150 bonus. The total amount paid will equal $345 million, and the retailer is accelerating the payment of planned quarterly bonuses of $180 million.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/targ...-shopping.html
    Target is increasing hourly workers’ wages by $2 an hour until at least May 2.
    The retailer is paying bonuses of $250 to $1,500 to 20,000 hourly employees who oversee store departments.


    etc etc dozens of biggies are announcing today

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    Welp looks like everyone took their profits and went home for the looooooooooooooong weekend
    Whether SHE IS INDICTED OR EVEN GUILTY IT DOESNT MATTER. HER GUILT IS A MOOT POINT!!! - Fox News 2016
    You don’t have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this Constitutional Republic,” - Sen (r) Graham 1999

  5. #2425
    Merely a Setback Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    Welp looks like everyone took their profits and went home for the looooooooooooooong weekend
    What are you talking abooooh, right, there it is. -913 used to be pretty bad. Now it's like "hold my malaria meds".

    No-one is above the law.

  6. #2426
    The Insane Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    What are you talking abooooh, right, there it is. -913 used to be pretty bad. Now it's like "hold my malaria meds".
    BTW if anyone is interested, malaria meds taste fucking terrible when you're a child that can't swallow pills whole.

  7. #2427
    The Insane Masark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    We all know the job numbers are going to suck elephant scrotum.
    Actually, elephants don't have scrotums. Their testicles are internal, like in aquatic mammals, some of which they're fairly closely related to.

    It's really a much better design than this dangling business we have that leaves them vulnerable to kicks and other trauma.

    </tangent>
    Last edited by Masark; 2020-03-20 at 10:46 PM.

    Warning : Above post may contain snark and/or sarcasm. Try reparsing with the /s argument before replying.
    What the world has learned is that America is never more than one election away from losing its goddamned mind
    Quote Originally Posted by Howard Tayler
    Political conservatism is just atavism with extra syllables and a necktie.
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  8. #2428
    Quote Originally Posted by Belize View Post
    BTW if anyone is interested, malaria meds taste fucking terrible when you're a child that can't swallow pills whole.
    To this day I remember the taste of having to chew penicillin pills due to a massive strep throat case when I was little. The taste was almost indescribably bad.

  9. #2429
    The Insane Masark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Belize View Post
    BTW if anyone is interested, malaria meds taste fucking terrible when you're a child that can't swallow pills whole.
    Hence why the adults liked to take them with gin.

    Warning : Above post may contain snark and/or sarcasm. Try reparsing with the /s argument before replying.
    What the world has learned is that America is never more than one election away from losing its goddamned mind
    Quote Originally Posted by Howard Tayler
    Political conservatism is just atavism with extra syllables and a necktie.
    Me on Elite : Dangerous | My WoW characters

  10. #2430
    Net profit margin for Walmart, Apple, Microsoft, Oracle, Google. With the exception of Google, Apple, Microsoft and Oracle did not budge much either during the 2008 - 2009 recession. For the most part, tech companies are pretty recession proof. After all these are the survivors of the 2000 dot.com bust.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/s...APL:ORCL:GOOGL


  11. #2431
    Quote Originally Posted by Belize View Post
    BTW if anyone is interested, malaria meds taste fucking terrible when you're a child that can't swallow pills whole.
    They're pretty gross even whole...

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    Microsoft will be fine throughout this... Teams usage jumped 40% this week alone.

    Microsoft and Apple both have more cash on hand than several small nationstates so I'm pretty sure they'll be good for the duration.

  12. #2432
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    What are you talking abooooh, right, there it is. -913 used to be pretty bad. Now it's like "hold my malaria meds".
    Yeah but it did not go 1500 down before rising to just 900 down. The market was much more stable than in the past. It is less frenetic and less desperate.

    So yesterday was tame, and today was reasonably stable. It's a step in the right direction?

  13. #2433
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    Yeah but it did not go 1500 down before rising to just 900 down. The market was much more stable than in the past. It is less frenetic and less desperate.

    So yesterday was tame, and today was reasonably stable. It's a step in the right direction?
    More like the calm before the next storm.

    How Low Can Oil Go? One Forecast Sees $5 a Barrel
    Last edited by Rasulis; 2020-03-20 at 08:45 PM.

  14. #2434
    Quote Originally Posted by Low Hanging Fruit View Post
    It is pretty obvious now the whole structure of this economy is held up by the tiniest of threads and just waiting to snap whenever disaster strikes.
    This is literally any and every economy. We don't stockpile metric tons of goods (as a society; plenty of preppers out there getting off on their surplus I bet, though) and we don't have enough production without people actively working to keep the pace. It doesn't matter what form it takes, what economic system is used, etc. The world isn't prepared to grind to a halt and survive like nothing has happened for a month+.

  15. #2435
    Quote Originally Posted by BeepBoo View Post
    This is literally any and every economy. We don't stockpile metric tons of goods (as a society; plenty of preppers out there getting off on their surplus I bet, though) and we don't have enough production without people actively working to keep the pace. It doesn't matter what form it takes, what economic system is used, etc. The world isn't prepared to grind to a halt and survive like nothing has happened for a month+.
    People forget that we as a world got used to having constant unfettered supply lines and now it will be very apparent what happens when those are disrupted. I asked my brother whom is in South Dakota when was the last time he could not get Tomatoes in Winter? He had no response because it has been largely forgotten. Life has been good here in Australia like it normally is but i worry for the hourly employees whom will be up shit creek.

    Here is a solid article regarding Corporate Bonds

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...?mod=home-page

  16. #2436
    looks like we just graduated from the dead cats bounce over the last few weeks to.....


    DEATH CROSS!!!!

    Didn't think we were that close....eeeek


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...?mod=home-page


    The Dow’s last death cross appeared on Dec. 19, 2018, after the Dow had dropped 13.1% from its then-record close on Oct. 3, 2018. The Dow bottomed just three days later on Dec. 24 at 21,792.20, or 6.6% below the Dec. 19 close.


    The one before that appeared on Jan. 13, 2016, after falling 9.9% from its Nov. 3, 2015 peak. The Dow fell another 3.0% before bottoming four weeks later, on Feb. 11.
    Whether SHE IS INDICTED OR EVEN GUILTY IT DOESNT MATTER. HER GUILT IS A MOOT POINT!!! - Fox News 2016
    You don’t have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this Constitutional Republic,” - Sen (r) Graham 1999

  17. #2437
    Merely a Setback Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    DEATH CROSS!!!!
    It's a large image, but, this is the last Death Cross, Dec 2018. Hint: this thread.


    No-one is above the law.

  18. #2438
    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    looks like we just graduated from the dead cats bounce over the last few weeks to.....


    DEATH CROSS!!!!

    Didn't think we were that close....eeeek


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...?mod=home-page


    The Dow’s last death cross appeared on Dec. 19, 2018, after the Dow had dropped 13.1% from its then-record close on Oct. 3, 2018. The Dow bottomed just three days later on Dec. 24 at 21,792.20, or 6.6% below the Dec. 19 close.


    The one before that appeared on Jan. 13, 2016, after falling 9.9% from its Nov. 3, 2015 peak. The Dow fell another 3.0% before bottoming four weeks later, on Feb. 11.
    So if I understand the article, we are almost done with the sell off. Maybe another 10% or so? This would leave the DOW bottoming at around 17k, which is a lot more optimistic than what I was thinking. Am I reading the article wrong?

  19. #2439
    Merely a Setback Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    This would leave the DOW bottoming at around 17k, which is a lot more optimistic than what I was thinking.
    That's the first half of 2016, right there. Trump would be in the hole.

    No-one is above the law.

  20. #2440
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    More like the calm before the next storm.

    How Low Can Oil Go? One Forecast Sees $5 a Barrel
    Low oil prices means low gasoline prices and heating prices for the foreseeable future. Well VERY low oil prices

    I am thinking that yeah, this IS the "eye of the hurricane". But it seems like the market has mostly bottomed out, and there is only another 3 or 4 thousand points left to drop before stability. My preference is that the sooner we get to stability, the sooner we can get to recovery and moving on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    That's the first half of 2016, right there. Trump would be in the hole.
    From a political standpoint, the exact number that the DOW is at is no longer important. Trump, and Trump supporters, were quite emphatic and emotional about how the DOW is doing SO MUCH BETTER under Trump than under Obama. It won't even be close.

    The easy part of the upcoming campaign will be coming up with negative ads to run against Trump. Unfortunately, this is an important part of any successful campaign.

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