Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Omega10]

I guess this is not a surprise given what has transpired over the last 24 hours.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock...221605039.html

Stock market news live: Stock futures drop, hit limit down

Contracts on the S&P 500 slumped 5% just minutes after overnight trading opened at 6 p.m. ET Sunday, hitting the daily lower limit established by CME Group to prevent further extreme losses.

I guess we are back to 1, 2, or 3 circuit breakers for tomorrow.

I'll put in my estimation: 2 definitely, and possibly 3.

I was hoping for a bottom of around 15k. Now I'm thinking 10k might be a better estimate as the eventual bottom.

[Zan15]

I guess this is not a surprise given what has transpired over the last 24 hours.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock...221605039.html

Stock market news live: Stock futures drop, hit limit down



I guess we are back to 1, 2, or 3 circuit breakers for tomorrow.

I'll put in my estimation: 2 definitely, and possibly 3.

I was hoping for a bottom of around 15k. Now I'm thinking 10k might be a better estimate as the eventual bottom.

20% down? hmm that might be a tough one in a single day. Only happened once....ever.


I am shocked anyone held before the weekend, I figured the only ones left were people who have money in 401k's and don't have a clue how to get out.

[Omega10]

20% down? hmm that might be a tough one in a single day. Only happened once....ever.


I am shocked anyone held before the weekend, I figured the only ones left were people who have money in 401k's and don't have a clue how to get out.

Yeah, but now the old -24% GDP prediction for Q2 is considered optimistic (worst I saw was -50%), and the question is not "will there be a million more unemployed over the next few months? but instead is how MANY millions? The government stimulus package is considered to be not just insufficient, but WAY too low. We needed 1 trillion a week or so ago. Now 1 trillion just is not enough.

The virus has really taken off in a fairly major way in most of the US states. According to the MSN coronavirus counter, we have surged into 3rd place for number of total cases, and 2nd place for number of active cases. There are nationwide short supplies of medical equipment, with an expectation that "short supplies" will turn into "outright shortage" for many of them over the next week or so.

So yesterday I took a break from the news, came back, was horrified by what I read, read a bit more, and found out that it's even worse than my original horrifying thoughts. So at this point down 13 to 20 percent sounds about right to me. Closer to 20 at its lowest point possibly followed by a bounce to end the day.

On a practical note, I think the only real question is: will these losses happen fast, or slow.

[Breccia]

Stock market news live: Stock futures drop, hit limit down

OH COME ON! I just checked those a few hours ago! They were level!

[Omega10]

OH COME ON! I just checked those a few hours ago! They were level!

I remembered you posting that. That's why I was surprised that it got down to the 5% limit in just 4 minutes. I read the article twice just to make sure it was saying what I thought it was saying.

[Hobb]

A lot places are going into lock down mode with all bushiness closed, except for healthcare and grocery stores. Dallas where I'm at, just closed down.

It's not going to be a good week for the stock market.

[Captain N]

Remember every time Trump opens his mouth about COVID-19....the market drops.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

Remember every time Trump opens his mouth about COVID-19....the market drops.

It is pretty true. Sad. But true. We are closing in on scientific proof that his speaking actually whittles away at consumer and market confidence.

[Zan15]

Yeah, but now the old -24% GDP prediction for Q2 is considered optimistic (worst I saw was -50%), and the question is not "will there be a million more unemployed over the next few months? but instead is how MANY millions? The government stimulus package is considered to be not just insufficient, but WAY too low. We needed 1 trillion a week or so ago. Now 1 trillion just is not enough.

The virus has really taken off in a fairly major way in most of the US states. According to the MSN coronavirus counter, we have surged into 3rd place for number of total cases, and 2nd place for number of active cases. There are nationwide short supplies of medical equipment, with an expectation that "short supplies" will turn into "outright shortage" for many of them over the next week or so.

So yesterday I took a break from the news, came back, was horrified by what I read, read a bit more, and found out that it's even worse than my original horrifying thoughts. So at this point down 13 to 20 percent sounds about right to me. Closer to 20 at its lowest point possibly followed by a bounce to end the day.

On a practical note, I think the only real question is: will these losses happen fast, or slow.

Welp I might be eating my words after failure in the Senate...

Dow futures plunge the 5% limit as coronavirus slams market, Fed official warns unemployment could hit 30%

Remember when Trump said unemployment was 30-40% under Obama....he might actually get that real number.

The irony.. coming back to chew his ass off

[Breccia]

Fed official warns unemployment could hit 30%

St. Louis Fed chair says US unemployment rate could hit 30 percent

Quick note: I believe the Fed chair(s) are knowledgeable people, and know what they're doing. I make a possible exception for the Atlanta Fed, who at time of writing, are still predicting a Q1 GDP of over three percent. An opinion not shared by any other carbon-based life form and that rock guy from Thor.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said that the U.S. unemployment rate could reach 30 percent in the second quarter because of the coronavirus pandemic, Bloomberg News reported Sunday.

Bullard also said a 50 percent reduction in gross domestic product is possible in the second quarter given the shutdown of business throughout much of the country, which is only expected to increase.

Fifty percent. Fucking fifty. Half. I know he said "possible" but if losing half is even possible, fuck me running.

He suggested this would all result in a $2.5 trillion loss in income, and that a huge stimulus would be needed to make up for it.

Bullard encouraged an aggressive government response, which could lead to the third quarter being a “transitional quarter” and the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year as potential “boom quarters.”

He added that the government’s priority should be to help American workers and businesses across industries, so companies and industries don’t fall into the cracks.

“It is totally stupid to lose a major industry because of a virus,” he said, according to the news outlet. “Why would you want to do that?”

This is a more dire pushback than I've seen, but it's probably because it's the most recent. Until now, Q3 estimates I've seen were 3% or so. Not "transitional"

[Rasulis]

I think it is unlikely that the market will drop 20% in one day at this late stage. The worst hit companies/sectors had already lost 50% to more than 80% of their values which lead to much diminished market share. The hardest hit companies just do not have much blood left to squeeze.

Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Berkshire Hathaway, Walmart, Johnson & Johnson, Visa & JP Morgan now accounts for more than 25% of the S&P 500 by market cap. For the market to drop 20%, these ten companies and their ilks in the top 50 would need to lose 20 – 30% of their current values.

[Omega10]

I think it is unlikely that the market will drop 20% in one day at this late stage. The worst hit companies/sectors had already lost 50% to more than 80% of their values which lead to much diminished market share. The hardest hit companies just do not have much blood left to squeeze.

Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Berkshire Hathaway, Walmart, Johnson & Johnson, Visa & JP Morgan now accounts for more than 25% of the S&P 500 by market cap. For the market to drop 20%, these ten companies and their ilks in the top 50 would need to lose 20 – 30% of their current values.

I thought of these kinds of ideas at first. For example, how far would Boeing really drop considering how much it has dropped already. <Note - this is a dangerous question to ask.>

On the other hand, the weekend news was bad beyond belief. Just Friday we were amazed at the -24% GDP drop prediction as an outlier for Q2. The new outlier is -50%, and -24% seems plausible. On Friday we were expecting really bad unemployment numbers for the week. Now it turns out that the expectation is measured in millions of jobs lost, with a realistic expectation of unemployment moving over 10%. This is HUGELY bad, BAD BEYOND BELIEF.

I hope you are correct. I think you are being overoptimistic.

[Breccia]

Yo experts here, do you think now it would be a good time to enter?

If you read my last, I dunno, 20 posts on this very thread, you'll avoid every single piece of advice I give.

Speaking of which, things are looking good for Wal-Mart. They're raising their minimum wage at their warehouses, probably to compensate for the massive demand. Incidentally, Wal-Mart's stock price is nearly even over the last month. In context, that's impressive.

- - - Updated - - -

Get ready for a wild ride.

Fed announces drastic expansion of economic rescue efforts

The Federal Reserve on Monday announced a drastic expansion of its efforts to bolster the U.S. economy and stabilize financial markets plunging due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets Fed monetary policy, announced Monday it would purchase an unlimited amount of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities and open three new facilities to purchase corporate and municipal debt.

The moves are the Fed’s latest steps down a path of unprecedented intervention in the U.S. economy, intended to keep credit flowing to households and businesses amid an economic calamity caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

The Fed on Monday announced it would be willing to exceed its initial $700 billion purchase, committing to but “amounts needed to support smooth market functioning” and calm the broader financial system.

The Fed also announced Monday it would establish three facilities to ensure companies facing peril have access to credit and financing: one to purchase newly-issued corporate bonds and debt; another to purchase outstanding corporate bonds; and another that would sell bonds backed by student loans, auto loans, credit card loans and loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration (SBA) to be purchased by the Fed.

The Fed said it will also rollout a program to support lending to eligible small-and-medium sized businesses.

DOW futures just snapped in the other direction. They are now positive.

- - - Updated - - -

Reuters has more on the Fed announcement.

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Monday said it would begin backstopping an unprecedented range of credit for households, small businesses and major employers in an effort to offset the “severe disruptions” to the economy caused by the coronarvirus outbreak.

The steps include establishment of new programs that will lend against student loans, credit card loans, and U.S. government backed-loans to small businesses, as well as new programs to buy bonds of larger employers and make loans to them.

Existing purchases of U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities will be expanded as much as needed “to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.”

In a statement the Fed said the effort, approved unanimously by members of the Federal Open Market Committee, was taken because “it has become clear that our economy will face severe disruptions” as a result of the health crisis.

They refer to it as "the bazooka" a term I'm pretty sure I've seen before. The Fed is out of cooldowns.

By the way, I want to call attention to the bolded above. No further comment is needed.

[kaelleria]

None of what the Fed did is going to matter unless we get a good package from congress. Something like 2/3 of US economy is in the services sector. People aren't going to pay their bills.

[Breccia]

None of what the Fed did is going to matter unless we get a good package from congress.

Oddly enough, the Fed's announcement reversed all the DOW futures losses caused by both the Senate's bill failing to win bipartisan support and Trump's press conference. You could easily be right long-term, but in the short term, people seem to be screaming "buy".

Just a few minutes now to see what happens.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay...that de-escalated quickly. Opening 600 point drop but then recovered, currently DOWn 343.

[Omega10]

Oddly enough, the Fed's announcement reversed all the DOW futures losses caused by both the Senate's bill failing to win bipartisan support and Trump's press conference. You could easily be right long-term, but in the short term, people seem to be screaming "buy".

Just a few minutes now to see what happens.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay...that de-escalated quickly. Opening 600 point drop but then recovered, currently DOWn 343.

YAY the Fed had another magic bullet. It seems to be helping, at least for now Sometimes I like being wrong!

[Breccia]

YAY the Fed had another magic bullet. It seems to be helping, at least for now Sometimes I like being wrong!

Um...you did read the second half, right? Or was that sarcasm? DOWn 500 and falling.

[Inuyaki]

YAY the Fed had another magic bullet. It seems to be helping, at least for now Sometimes I like being wrong!

But how many do they have left? They just waste them all on Trump's press briefings...

[Belize]

TFW you keep trying to pump stability and stimulus's but the markets still drop because you're failing to address the actual issue.

- - - Updated - - -

But how many do they have left? They just waste them all on Trump's press briefings...

I have a really bad joke about magic bullets that would put me on several FBI watchlists

[Omega10]

Um...you did read the second half, right? Or was that sarcasm? DOWn 500 and falling.

I was predicting a LOT worse. And so far Boeing is up for the day.