Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Zan15]

And, we shouldn't be throwing money at these companies.

Loaning corporations money with interest to be paid back is not "throwing" money at companies.
its not socialism. its not bailouts. its not handouts. its how the economy and business works.

the only difference is instead of a bank it will come from the govt.

Now the checks going to individuals, that is a whole other story.

- - - Updated - - -

Looks like states are starting to follow Trump's orders to not release unemployment data according to normal schedules.

Texas
https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/n...tes-clamp.html
Ohio
https://www.dispatch.com/news/202003...administration

lol, but Obama was lying about the numbers....

[jeezusisacasual]

Loaning corporations money with interest to be paid back is not "throwing" money at companies.
its not socialism. its not bailouts. its not handouts. its how the economy and business works.

the only difference is instead of a bank it will come from the govt.

Now the checks going to individuals, that is a whole other story.

- - - Updated - - -

Looks like states are starting to follow Trump's orders to not release unemployment data according to normal schedules.

Texas
https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/n...tes-clamp.html
Ohio
https://www.dispatch.com/news/202003...administration

lol, but Obama was lying about the numbers....

So Texas and Alabama of the north are bending the knee? Color me shocked.

The DJIA being up today is a solid movement but again it needs a solid week of these gains to regain what it had lost. The US is fucking nuts at this point, willing to sacrifice people to let the virus run rampant for a very short sighted gain. The only way this can be worse is if the Trump administration culls information about releasing infection rates and deaths to promote a false sense of improvement.

I am also shocked that the FED is open to buying up to 20% of a single ETF or 10% in a single corporate bond markets this is going to be a metric shit ton of QE which might spark larger problems then what they were trying to solve. This is how you create a Japanification of the US economy.

[Rasulis]

Loaning corporations money with interest to be paid back is not "throwing" money at companies.
its not socialism. its not bailouts. its not handouts. its how the economy and business works.

the only difference is instead of a bank it will come from the govt.

Now the checks going to individuals, that is a whole other story.

- - - Updated - - -

Looks like states are starting to follow Trump's orders to not release unemployment data according to normal schedules.

Texas
https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/n...tes-clamp.html
Ohio
https://www.dispatch.com/news/202003...administration

lol, but Obama was lying about the numbers....

The bolded part is just dumb. If you make the market guess whether a glass if half full or half empty, it will always guess it is half empty.

[Zan15]

Estimates on unemployment with napkin math at 2.0 levels..go!

I am kicking myself for not doing this sooner.
I could have lessened some of the fear of Thursdays report and invested like I wanted to on Friday-Monday. RIP 10% gain? (was going to go straight SP500 fund for ease and cheap fees)

Quick math says it will not be anywhere near as bad as they say...YET. <---YET

Some open Questions/problems:
** A lot of people are having problems filing online?
** A lot of people can't file on line and normally do in person or over phone whom now can't.
** Unemployment data is delayed, so it could be growing
** Trump clamped down and some really important states are now missing. STATES RIGHTS HUH!!!!





Labor rates: https://www.bls.gov/lau/rdscnp16.htm

I won't give links to save space, but I have them if you want them:

CA - 3/24- 3 time the NATIONAL average weekly claims.....106,000 a day average the last 7 days = 742k (worst week in 2009 was 120k)
19,509,906 workforce 3.9% unemployment
18,756,606 working - After 18,014,606
3.9% unemployment before, Estimates this week 7.7%


CT - 3/23 - 99,000 in the last week. (2500 average)
1,929,411 - workforce
1,857,138 - working
1,758,138 - after
3.7% before, Estimates this week 8.9%


NC- 3/23 - 110,000 filed last week (3/24 reports are 26k filed Monday, not included.)
5,110,694 workforce
4,925,813 working
4,815,813 after

3.6% before, Estimates this week 5.8%


WI 3/24 101,400
3,110,404 workforce
3,000,783 working
2,899,383 after

3.5% before, Estimates this week 6.8%




Some other estimates based on news reports and limited data released by states as of 3/21.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/thi...in-us-history/


The startling calculation—based on claims in 35 states and Washington, D.C. and extrapolated to the other 15 states
An estimated 3.4 million Americans filed such claims for the week ending March 21, according to the findings from the Economic Policy Institute (EPI).

“This will dwarf every other week in history,”




@Breccia I know you love history and records so here you go

For scale, consider that 3.4 million Americans moving from employment to unemployment would raise the number of the unemployed from 5.7 million to 9.1 million. This alone would raise the unemployment rate by more than half, by 2 percentage points from 3.5% to 5.5%, moving back to 2015 levels in just one week. This spike represents 2.2% of all jobs in the economy.
The largest monthly rise in the unemployment rate in American history was plus 1.3 percentage points in October 1949.

[Breccia]

The most recent study says unemployment could spike by 3.4 million.

EDIT: It occurs to me that @Zan15 might have already posted that, based on his most recent mention.

[jimboa24]

Just curious but how come every single time trump fucks something up in a massive way, it's never his fault. And then when people react they are "snowflakes" or "triggered" or whatever grade school insult you can think of. A person died yesterday because they listened to what he was saying, and you dont care.

That's not what happened, and you know it. He said that hydrochloroquine combined with other drugs were showing promise in developing a treatment. So a complete and utter moron and his wife took that snippet, ran out and bought CHLOROQUINE PHOSPHATE (a compound completely different than what Trump named) - they bought it in the form of fish tank cleaner, which, by the way, specifically says is not safe to ingest. These shining examples of stupidity then self-medicated themselves on fish tank cleaner, and of course it killed one of them and put the other in the hospital.

Blaming Trump is completely and utterly ridiculous and if you don't know that, you're either every bit as stupid as they are or you're being intellectually dishonest. I don't feel sorry for that couple, because first of all they didn't even listen to what Trump said. Secondly, they ran out and bought a substance completely and utterly different from the medical drug Trump referred to, a substance that you cannot possibly open and ingest without reading several giant warnings NOT to ingest it.

And the media, eager as always to blame anything bad on Trump, took advantage of this woman's obvious mental illness to get her to blame Trump for she and her husband's obvious lack of any sort of ability to think.

[Rasulis]

Estimates on unemployment with napkin math at 2.0 levels..go!

I am kicking myself for not doing this sooner.
I could have lessened some of the fear of Thursdays report and invested like I wanted to on Friday-Monday. RIP 10% gain? (was going to go straight SP500 fund for ease and cheap fees)

You'll get another chance. The market rally won't last. With the exception of two or three sectors, the fundamentals are still pretty bad.

BTW, from Bloomberg

“the global crude benchmark is now priced below the most widely traded coal contract on an energy-equivalent basis.” as of last friday, “Australia’s Newcastle coal on ICE Futures Europe settled at $66.85 a metric ton, [...] the equivalent of $27.36 a barrel of oil. Brent futures ended at $26.98 a barrel.”

Which makes coal, for now, the most expensive fossil fuel.

[GreenJesus]

That's not what happened, and you know it. He said that hydrochloroquine combined with other drugs were showing promise in developing a treatment. So a complete and utter moron and his wife took that snippet, ran out and bought CHLOROQUINE PHOSPHATE (a compound completely different than what Trump named) - they bought it in the form of fish tank cleaner, which, by the way, specifically says is not safe to ingest. These shining examples of stupidity then self-medicated themselves on fish tank cleaner, and of course it killed one of them and put the other in the hospital.

Blaming Trump is completely and utterly ridiculous and if you don't know that, you're either every bit as stupid as they are or you're being intellectually dishonest. I don't feel sorry for that couple, because first of all they didn't even listen to what Trump said. Secondly, they ran out and bought a substance completely and utterly different from the medical drug Trump referred to, a substance that you cannot possibly open and ingest without reading several giant warnings NOT to ingest it.

And the media, eager as always to blame anything bad on Trump, took advantage of this woman's obvious mental illness to get her to blame Trump for she and her husband's obvious lack of any sort of ability to think.

Exactly.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1242425467438858241

"We have deleted this tweet and corrected our story because it did not reflect the full nature of the self-medication done with an additive commonly used to clean fish tanks." The fish tank cleaner has a warning on the label not to ingest and it isn't even what Trump said to use.. It's literally just 50 IQ idiots getting the Darwin award.

[Breccia]

The market rally won't last.

It might stabilize if a deal is signed, but, I don't think we'll climb out of the hole the size of Trump's ass anytime soon. Paying people or bailing out companies is great, but, production will still be down. Services will still be down. Travel will still be down. And oil will sill be way down.

Maybe Jan 20, 2017 is the bottoming out point?

[Rasulis]

U.S. drilling lease sales draw few bids during oil market meltdown

Oil and gas lease sales offered by the Trump administration in three Western states on Tuesday drew few bids as a crash in energy prices tamped down interest among drillers.

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) received bids on just 40% of the 193,584 acres (78,300 hectares) offered for leasing via online auctions in Wyoming, Nevada and Montana, bringing in total high bids of about $3.3 million, according to results on online marketplace EnergyNet.

Wyoming, which held the largest sale of 105 parcels covering 118,292 acres (47,871 hectares), accounted for 99% of the bid total. Wyoming is the top U.S. state for gas production on federal lands and the second-biggest for oil production, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Yet even there, bidding was sparse. Parcels covering just 72,000 acres received bids,and 40% of that acreage sold for the minimum price of $2 an acre. The average price of $46 an acre was less than half the average price which exceeded $100 per acre in a federal lease sales held in Wyoming last year.

In Nevada, BLM received bids on less than 2% of the 70,110 acres (28,372 hectares) offered, in a sale that brought in less than $2,500 total. In Montana, eight parcels covering 5,180 acres (2,100 hectares) received an average price per acre of about $5.

Drilling on federal lands is a crucial part of President Donald Trump’s “energy dominance” agenda to maximize domestic production of fossil fuels.

Taxpayer advocacy groups had urged the Trump administration to delay the sales to ensure better return to federal coffers.

“In this environment, it is impossible for the American taxpayer to expect anywhere near a fair return on oil and gas leases,” Taxpayers for Common Sense and Conservatives for Responsible Stewardship said in a joint statement last week.

Our federal government is being run by idiots.

[Breccia]

Our federal government is run by idiots.

I mean, I get that Trump is trying to have a garage sale for all those drilling sites he doesn't want, but, he's gotta know that a one-shot reduction in cost can't compete with a 50% price-per-barrel drop that could last indefinitely.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

It might stabilize if a deal is signed, but, I don't think we'll climb out of the hole the size of Trump's ass anytime soon. Paying people or bailing out companies is great, but, production will still be down. Services will still be down. Travel will still be down. And oil will sill be way down.

Maybe Jan 20, 2017 is the bottoming out point?

If the deal is signed I see it having a few days up, then a few days of down, then eventual smoothing out for a while. Then it is just see what happens. If on Easter the whole country is opened, everyone packs into churches, everyone breaths a lot in there, and suddenly the outbreak is MASSIVE again than all bets are off. Because at that point it won't be a controlled stop it will be people are getting sick as fuck and its falling a part stop.

[Blur4stuff]

Trump shouldn't be talking about it at all. If there was an actual cure being mass produced then sure, talk about it.

There's a lot of idiots out there who, for some reason, still trust Trump. He could list off any number of random drugs and its guaranteed that some of his moron supporters would take them.

It's up to Trump not to say those things no matter how many knots his defenders can twist themselves in afterward as they argue nothing is his fault.

It's 100% on Trump for continuing to soak up TV time with lies and nonsense to satisfy his ego.

[Cleansing Totem]

That's not what happened, and you know it. He said that hydrochloroquine combined with other drugs were showing promise in developing a treatment. So a complete and utter moron and his wife took that snippet, ran out and bought CHLOROQUINE PHOSPHATE (a compound completely different than what Trump named) - they bought it in the form of fish tank cleaner, which, by the way, specifically says is not safe to ingest. These shining examples of stupidity then self-medicated themselves on fish tank cleaner, and of course it killed one of them and put the other in the hospital.

Blaming Trump is completely and utterly ridiculous and if you don't know that, you're either every bit as stupid as they are or you're being intellectually dishonest. I don't feel sorry for that couple, because first of all they didn't even listen to what Trump said. Secondly, they ran out and bought a substance completely and utterly different from the medical drug Trump referred to, a substance that you cannot possibly open and ingest without reading several giant warnings NOT to ingest it.

And the media, eager as always to blame anything bad on Trump, took advantage of this woman's obvious mental illness to get her to blame Trump for she and her husband's obvious lack of any sort of ability to think.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1242425467438858241

It's almost like a non professional giving medical advice to a scared and desperate population will result in mistakes like his happening. It's like world leaders should be responsible or something.

[GreenJesus]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1242425467438858241

It's almost like a non professional giving medical advice to a scared and desperate population will result in mistakes like his happening. It's like world leaders should be responsible or something.

He didnt give medical advice though. He was just saying they were making good progress on this drug and it has already been used/approved for other things before so its not completely untested on a population before. They were using it in South Korea with some good success already. Cuomo was talking to Trump interested in getting it as soon as possible. Media is conflating this way iut of proportion.

[Tenlo]

He didnt give medical advice though. He was just saying they were making good progress on this drug and it has already been used/approved for other things before so its not completely untested on a population before. They were using it in South Korea with some good success already. Cuomo was talking to Trump interested in getting it as soon as possible. Media is conflating this way iut of proportion.

Let's think about this trump said 'These drugs, together, have a real chance to be the biggest game changers in history'

Not put yourself in the shoes of someone whose scared and desperate. You find what you think is half of the biggest game changer!!1 surely taking it will be better than taking nothing!

These people were stupid and I'm sorry it cost one of them their life but there is some blame that can be placed on Trump. His words matter. People trust him and look to him in this time for guidance.

[jimboa24]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1242425467438858241

It's almost like a non professional giving medical advice to a scared and desperate population will result in mistakes like his happening. It's like world leaders should be responsible or something.

Except he didn't give medical advice. He didn't encourage anyone to go out and buy it and he sure as hell didn't say you should go and take it. He gave an update on medical research and possible treatments for the virus and he made it abundantly clear that it's still in development. He gave no medical advice of any kind. You're knowingly spreading lies because you hate Trump. You're full of shit, and you know it.

[Cleansing Totem]

Except he didn't give medical advice. He didn't encourage anyone to go out and buy it and he sure as hell didn't say you should go and take it. He gave an update on medical research and possible treatments for the virus and he made it abundantly clear that it's still in development. He gave no medical advice of any kind. You're knowingly spreading lies because you hate Trump. You're full of shit, and you know it.

The man's wife told NBC News she watched televised briefings during which Trump talked about the possible benefits of chloroquine to help the virus.

"I saw it sitting on the back shelf and thought, 'Hey, isn't that the stuff they're talking about on TV?'" she said, according to the broadcasting company. "We were afraid of getting sick."

Please, do keep defending him though, just don't actually follow his advice.

[Stormspellz]

Except he didn't give medical advice. He didn't encourage anyone to go out and buy it and he sure as hell didn't say you should go and take it. He gave an update on medical research and possible treatments for the virus and he made it abundantly clear that it's still in development. He gave no medical advice of any kind. You're knowingly spreading lies because you hate Trump. You're full of shit, and you know it.

or you have such trump cognitive dissonance you can't process how much a danger he is

[Dontrike]

And congress needs to put even more money to big business than it already has in the bill. Companies are already scaling back and pulling back on investments.

No, corporations should not get any fucking more bail outs. We have given them too many and then they go around give their executives massive bonuses, fire employees, and charge us more for doing less. Those fucking places should have saved like normal people rather than doing historic levels of stock buybacks just to make their stocks seem higher. They did this to themselves.

Fuck them. Fuck them right in the ear.

Democrats seem to care more about getting votes by calling out big business and stabilizing the economy, it is going to get people more money now but cost millions their jobs over the summer.

Or it's because we shouldn't be bailing out corporations that barely pay taxes and should focus on those that need it, like families that are struggling or small businesses, and not airlines that decided to fuck themselves and not even save a dime for such an occasion.

It is moronic to think that we should fucking bail out those fuckers once again especially when you should know by now that bailing them out does us near nothing. We get nothing back for it. If these rich people are so fucking smart they'll find a way to get their company through. Until then though those companies can burn in hell.

- - - Updated - - -

This is about the survival of the country as a whole not socialism. This isn't a constant thing.

It absolutely is constant. This isn't the first time we've saved some of these fucking corporations and it won't be the last. These fuckers should have seen this coming and saved like any normal person and not done fucking buybacks when we gave them $1.5 TRILLION.

If they want this money they should have to pay it back three to five times over. This country should be tired of bailing out these retarded assholes that pay near no taxes anyways. If not then they better get real good at bootstrap pulling.

- - - Updated - - -

I just don't know how people don't get the fact that this type of event was not anything anyone would have prepared for.

Most people didn't see a global pandemic coming, but you still have to save for emergencies. Those massive corporations didn't save a thing and this is what they fucking get.

At this point why not save the cigarette industry or the horse and buggy industry? Why aren't we saving Blockbuster, Circuit City, or Toys R Us? Sorry, but I don't have a tear to spare for every business that goes out of business, especially those fucking dumb ass airlines.