Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Breccia]

did you stock up on coffee like everyone else did with TP?

Well, yes and no. By coincidence I had just picked up two new pounds from two sources to test. That's above and beyond my normal supply. That was pure luck, especially with places like Starbucks and local places shutting down.

On that topic, I'm sure Starbucks' stock is the same as most places. It, too, took a nose-dive right around the time Trump said everything was bigly and yuge and perfect. But unlike a lot of restaurants, they were pre-diversified. In particular, pounds of beans and instant should keep them from turning to dust like Cheesecake Factory or Waffle House. Quite frankly, those that close might never re-open.

Personal info is not evidence, but, when Katrina hit New Orleans, two of my favorite restaurants on the planet were affected. One never came back.

[Rasulis]

Rather than looking at total numbers of unemployment benefit claims, it is interesting to see total claims per 1,000 workers. Some interesting observations.

I understand why NV is so high, but why are MT, ND, PA so high? Also, since tourism employment account for a large chunk of FL workforce, why is their’s only 7? That does not make sense. NY is only 8?

[Captain N]

Rather than looking at total numbers of unemployment benefit claims, it is interesting to see total claims per 1,000 workers. Some interesting observations.

Florida might not have the issues since both Disney World and Universal Studios have commented that they will continue to pay employees throughout the crisis. This includes people working in their resorts, restaurants, and kiosks in Disney Springs and Universal's Citywalk.

[Poopymonster]

Well, yes and no. By coincidence I had just picked up two new pounds from two sources to test. That's above and beyond my normal supply. That was pure luck, especially with places like Starbucks and local places shutting down.

On that topic, I'm sure Starbucks' stock is the same as most places. It, too, took a nose-dive right around the time Trump said everything was bigly and yuge and perfect. But unlike a lot of restaurants, they were pre-diversified. In particular, pounds of beans and instant should keep them from turning to dust like Cheesecake Factory or Waffle House. Quite frankly, those that close might never re-open.

Personal info is not evidence, but, when Katrina hit New Orleans, two of my favorite restaurants on the planet were affected. One never came back.

....I miss Waffle House.

[D Luniz]

*snip*

I have thought on it, these are unemployed but not bankruptcies. So the jobs can come back in theory for all of them. Now if alot of companies say "we can't hold our breath anymore" and bow out. Then those jobs are truly gone. At that point I'd expect the market slide to return

[Zan15]

Rather than looking at total numbers of unemployment benefit claims, it is interesting to see total claims per 1,000 workers. Some interesting observations.

I understand why NV is so high, but why are MT, ND, PA so high? Also, since tourism employment account for a large chunk of FL workforce, why is their’s only 7? That does not make sense. NY is only 8?

ND= oil oil and oil....and everything related to oil....shale...oil...did I mention oil yet?

PA= they were more aggressive and faster pace of shutdown. Greater portion of hospitality and low wage workers then a lot of states?
https://paworkstats.geosolinc.com/vo...fQRDmcU06QaUs=

MT= Ya got me, I know nothing about that state. Nothing seems crazy in their labor #'s by industries.
http://lmi.mt.gov/Industry/cesSector


I would also gander it has to do with companies ability to continue to pay people while:
-They are not working
-Working from home

I would bet these states have an abnormally high % of low-mid size companies vs big companies/corporations.

Like NY has a shocking low number relative to what's going on and how many workers because many of them can work from home and the businesses are better financed to continue to pay people instead of lay them off right now.

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Florida might not have the issues since both Disney World and Universal Studios have commented that they will continue to pay employees throughout the crisis. This includes people working in their resorts, restaurants, and kiosks in Disney Springs and Universal's Citywalk.

that is what I was just saying/thinking.

For now…..

for as much as people hate them the top 100 ish large corporations is the only thing that saved the unemployment number from being 6m+ this week.

but it just kicks the can down the road to when unemployment checks get increased 2-3x what it is now as max and the 1200 dollar+ checks start going out.
Companies will be more willing to lay people off because the blow back won't be as bad if people are getting all their money too

I expect Disney specifically to layoff/furlough en'mass once they know people will get their full pay from the govt for 4 months.....

that will be round two of unemployment spike
You just need one of the majors to take the risk and be the first to get the ball rolling.

[Zaydin]

I wonder how long this bubble of optimism from the markets will last. My guess is that things will crater when we get GDP numbers for the quarter and the job losses from the outbreak.

[Zan15]

I wonder how long this bubble of optimism from the markets will last. My guess is that things will crater when we get GDP numbers for the quarter and the job losses from the outbreak.

Till the big corporations stop paying people for not actually working
and the april wish date comes and goes and we are still in the thick of things.

there is a lot of profit makers trying to get in on this quick bump, its basically a reverse panic just like selling was now people are trying to get in before the quick money is gone

[Theodarzna]

I wonder how long this bubble of optimism from the markets will last. My guess is that things will crater when we get GDP numbers for the quarter and the job losses from the outbreak.

Once April 1st hits and nobody can pay rent, mortgages, or any bills, I mean eventually someone MIGHT have to pay that stuff and right now with 3 million unemployment claims and rising, 30%? Unemployment generally (And that is the propaganda number that is meant to look good, not even REAL unemployment), 1200 dollars once being all the help that's coming and a disease spreading that is only JUST starting to kill people and has burned across the country through people who are asymptomatic for weeks; idk, I suspect after April 1st the 2nd crash comes as big or bigger than the first.

Add in that the bodies will start to hit the floor in a big way by then and our shit tier Health Care "system" will be flat out overrun?

[D Luniz]

plus, other than here, I havent heard about the 1200 being a glorified loan

im guessing it that accurate, and becomes widely known, thats gonna hurt things too

[Zan15]

plus, other than here, I havent heard about the 1200 being a glorified loan

im guessing it that accurate, and becomes widely known, thats gonna hurt things too

For people making too much money, yes.

They want to make sure people who have worked this year also get the money but they will have to wait a year to get it.
In return they also don't want to give money to people who really don't need it anymore than they need it based on their 2018,2019 income.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/everyth...navirus-ribbon


The advance payments will be determined based on 2019 income—or 2018 income if that is all that is available to IRS—and the final amount of the benefits will be determined based on 2020 income and settled on the 2020 tax return.

So people who ultimately qualify for more money than they receive this year—a person whose income drops from $100,000 to $70,000, for example—would get the rest through a larger tax refund or smaller tax payment in early 2021.

But people who ultimately qualify for less money than they got this year—a person whose income rises from $70,000 to $100,000—wouldn’t have to pay it back.

[D Luniz]

*snip*

And what do you think on my idea here as to why the markets are recovering so quickly?

[Zan15]

I have thought on it, these are unemployed but not bankruptcies. So the jobs can come back in theory for all of them. Now if alot of companies say "we can't hold our breath anymore" and bow out. Then those jobs are truly gone. At that point I'd expect the market slide to return

in 2008-2009 there were a relativly low amount of bankrupt companies in the first few months (took a while to get to small and medium companies) but layoffs went banana's in a rush to save money and prop up stocks.

The problem is a lot of small and medium size companies will run out of money shortly to keep their businesses open. They will lead the charge this time in layoffs and bankruptcy not corporations.

In return they will cause a slow roll in the bigger corporations as they decide they don't have the desire to keep paying people for not being at work.
it was good press for the first few weeks, now its just cash burning in the backyard. They are starting with furloughs and pay cuts, its going to snowball into big layoffs.

That's why people have to stop calling this bill a "bailout", its not (except maybe for boeing). They are loans to keep paying their employees. They are going to have to pay them back eventually.

Disney is not going to borrow 10 billion dollars to pay people for 10-16 weeks to do nothing when they can furlough them and just bring them back when it done and make the govt shoulder the cost of paying these people's salaries for 10-16 weeks.

That is the only real bailout, even then its not really a bailout because layoffs and unemployment have been around forever if that was the case then we've been bailing them out for decades.

However, we should raise the amount employers have to pay in unemployment taxes so that the system is solvent for situations like this.

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I have thought on it, these are unemployed but not bankruptcies. So the jobs can come back in theory for all of them. Now if alot of companies say "we can't hold our breath anymore" and bow out. Then those jobs are truly gone. At that point I'd expect the market slide to return

if i had my guess its just....


people grabbing a quick profit on the bounce, it always happens in a bear market. very few bear markets hold the impending 10% bounce they all seem to end up having before another huge drop. not always, but almost.

Rebalancing by funds, forced to by their own "investment rules" to buy stocks when they become disconnected with the index they are tracking. Trillion dollar fund managers causing whole industry shifts because of their "automatic investments"

Gamblers....nuff said.

[Resurgo]

I’m still trying to figure out the bill, and it looks like the loans for small businesses turn into forgivable loans or grants if a small business ends up using it to basically burn money paying people to do nothing.

[Trunksee]

Whelp my area just took a big hit in the labor force. The Carpenters and laborers union have just decided to walk off a ton of considered essential construction jobs when they heard they would get their full pay on Unemployment. There are a bunch of people now bugging as well around the trades to be laid off for the same reason. This bill is going to cause a huge shit show with union workers now refusing to work as the hall is just letting them do it up here. We are headed right back to 2008 levels if not worse in the construction industry like I feared. Investors are losing it as I speak with a few everyday about why we are unable to still make deadlines with people refusing to work even though legally they still can.

[Gaidax]

I wonder how long this bubble of optimism from the markets will last. My guess is that things will crater when we get GDP numbers for the quarter and the job losses from the outbreak.

Rating agencies and the world will re-evaluate the whole debt to GDP ratings. What was the metric for 2019 won't be the metric for 2021 because the whole world was hurt badly by this crisis.

In Israel, we have worked a decade to bring our debt to GDP ratio to 60% and keep it there, but now there is no choice but to spike it to 70%, because you need to take care of the people and you also need to take care of businesses too.

There won't be a country in the world that will come out of this untouched. US fortune will have it that US, in reality, has insane amount of money - these wild spending bills are absolutely something US can afford, even despite the debt-to-GDP concerns (which do not tell all the story at all, btw). US will bail itself out numerous times coming decade and it can actually afford it too.

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Whelp my area just took a big hit in the labor force. The Carpenters and laborers union have just decided to walk off a ton of considered essential construction jobs when they heard they would get their full pay on Unemployment. There are a bunch of people now bugging as well around the trades to be laid off for the same reason. This bill is going to cause a huge shit show with union workers now refusing to work as the hall is just letting them do it up here. We are headed right back to 2008 levels if not worse in the construction industry like I feared. Investors are losing it as I speak with a few everyday about why we are unable to still make deadlines with people refusing to work even though legally they still can.

This was to be expected, the bill does introduce this loophole people will be all to happy to exploit, but that's life - you can't be on top of everything.

It's definitely a thing even in normal times when small-ish businesses having hard times, reach behind the closed doors agreement with their workers, where they "lay off" them, so they can get benefits and then rehire them couple months later.

Not uncommon practice.

[Breccia]

I’m still trying to figure out the bill, and it looks like the loans for small businesses turn into forgivable loans or grants if a small business ends up using it to basically burn money paying people to do nothing.

They can use the money to pay employees, yes, whether they "do nothing" or otherwise.

[Trunksee]

Rating agencies and the world will re-evaluate the whole debt to GDP ratings. What was the metric for 2019 won't be the metric for 2021 because the whole world was hurt badly by this crisis.

In Israel, we have worked a decade to bring our debt to GDP ratio to 60% and keep it there, but now there is no choice but to spike it to 70%, because you need to take care of the people and you also need to take care of businesses too.

There won't be a country in the world that will come out of this untouched. US fortune will have it that US, in reality, has insane amount of money - these wild spending bills are absolutely something US can afford, even despite the debt-to-GDP concerns (which do not tell all the story at all, btw). US will bail itself out numerous times coming decade and it can actually afford it too.

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This was to be expected, the bill does introduce this loophole people will be all to happy to exploit, but that's life - you can't be on top of everything.

It's definitely a thing even in normal times when small-ish businesses having hard times, reach behind the closed doors agreement with their workers, where they "lay off" them, so they can get benefits and then rehire them couple months later.

Not uncommon practice.

No I get that the problem I have is because you can get up to 70k a year and the way the bill is written it does encourage people to sit at home for up to 4 months and basically take a vacation while still getting paid. The problem is the unions wont force people off the bench if they don't want to come off. If we don't keep working if we are allowed to investors will start to pull back on spending even if things return to normal. I am a Site supervisor so I run the whole job and have set up everything people need to keep working based off OSHA guidelines. Yet the refusal to come to work is annoying as its hard to explain that there isn't much to do or we will just be picketed if we go against them. These workers just don't understand where their jobs come from and yes fine you get a nice 4 months off but there wont be work to come back to for upto 3 years as investors plan jobs out that far in advance. If they see the economy faultering the will not plan new work for a few years and cancel or postpone jobs that are not started yet.

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They can use the money to pay employees, yes, whether they "do nothing" or otherwise.

Basically it takes the strain off UI in each state as they wont be inundated with claims if employers can keep paying. It also is a way for them to keep employees they want to basically under a contract that if they decide not to come back afterwards when requested they can be fired without being able to collect.

[Beefhammer]

Rating agencies and the world will re-evaluate the whole debt to GDP ratings. What was the metric for 2019 won't be the metric for 2021 because the whole world was hurt badly by this crisis.

In Israel, we have worked a decade to bring our debt to GDP ratio to 60% and keep it there, but now there is no choice but to spike it to 70%, because you need to take care of the people and you also need to take care of businesses too.

There won't be a country in the world that will come out of this untouched. US fortune will have it that US, in reality, has insane amount of money - these wild spending bills are absolutely something US can afford, even despite the debt-to-GDP concerns (which do not tell all the story at all, btw). US will bail itself out numerous times coming decade and it can actually afford it too.

- - - Updated - - -



This was to be expected, the bill does introduce this loophole people will be all to happy to exploit, but that's life - you can't be on top of everything.

It's definitely a thing even in normal times when small-ish businesses having hard times, reach behind the closed doors agreement with their workers, where they "lay off" them, so they can get benefits and then rehire them couple months later.

Not uncommon practice.

I don't see the issue. Many of the places are just staying open for greed and/or to keep employees earning wages through this thing putting them and their families in danger. If they can not work and collect their wages that is a good thing.

[Gaidax]

No I get that the problem I have is because you can get up to 70k a year and the way the bill is written it does encourage people to sit at home for up to 4 months and basically take a vacation while still getting paid. The problem is the unions wont force people off the bench if they don't want to come off. If we don't keep working if we are allowed to investors will start to pull back on spending even if things return to normal. I am a Site supervisor so I run the whole job and have set up everything people need to keep working based off OSHA guidelines. Yet the refusal to come to work is annoying as its hard to explain that there isn't much to do or we will just be picketed if we go against them. These workers just don't understand where their jobs come from and yes fine you get a nice 4 months off but there wont be work to come back to for upto 3 years as investors plan jobs out that far in advance. If they see the economy faultering the will not plan new work for a few years and cancel or postpone jobs that are not started yet.

Well, that's life really. I mean, business aside, I think you can understand said workers too - of course they are worried about state of business, but their health and health of their household is not a small concern there either.

It's a shit situation and I totally understand how businesses will suffer and how there won't be workplaces to get back to once this is done.

There is a very real tug of war between economy and healthcare right now and both sides have very real concerns. A lot of small and medium businesses will fail and a lot of people who are on the leave will find themselves on the streets once this is over, but the workers have very little ability to help there, because they do, after all, need to stay home.

So it's up to the government to prop these SMBs' and even then they obviously can't cover everything, not even US, so businesses will fail, there is no way to make it sound nice.